Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

@YOUNGBLOOD: we'd have the 2nd, 18th/19th, 20-24th (if Chicago gets knocked out, and depending on where other teams finish), and the 36th and 37th picks. Just back of the napkin, so don't quote me on this.

Is that worth giving up a potential franchise #1C? Not sure, but that would be quite the reload of 1st and 2nd round picks in one year.

Your # s and predictions of draft positions are the same as mine. 5 draft picks in the top 37 including the next ( temmu) great Finn 2 nd over all.

If Arizona does not want it fine ... We pick Mathews and they finally relocate in 3 years.

 

[Mathil8]

An Oilers fan on the main board posted this comparing players on "super-lines" from the past like Tkatchuk is on right now (ofcourse the Oilers fan was trying to use this to anti-hype Marner but could be applicable to Tkachuck). Will curb a lot of people's enthusiasm:

I know it wasn't you who posted those numbers, but just to easily refute it (see in bold):

Allow me to bring in the example of the 2006/2007 London Knights.

Kane 145 points 18 YO
Kostitsyn 131 points 22 YO
Gagner 118 points. 17 YO (same draft year as Kane)

Or Crosby's 2004/2005 Rimouski Oceanic:

Crosby 168 points 17 YO
Roussin 116 points 20 YO
Pouliot 114 points 18 YO (same draft year as Crosby)

Now, Marner's 2015-2016 Knights:

Dvorak 121 points 20 YO (2014 draft)
Marner 116 points 18 YO (2015 draft)
Tkachuk 107 points 18 YO (2016 draft)

it's like a shell game - find the ball, except in this case the ball is the elite NHLer. Under the other two shells are average - at best - players.

So in this case Tkachuk is 2 years younger than the top scorer (Dvorak), and 1 year younger than 2nd scorer (Marner). In the other cases the 2nd and 3rd scorers are either the same draft year, or older than the top scorer. A year or two makes a big difference in scoring numbers, so the OP trying to post those numbers to make his point was entirely disingenuous.

 

[Huffer]

I'm a massive fan of Laine, but it would be extremely tough to trade down from 1st IMO. Having Matthews as a C and building that strength down the middle is just so hard to say no to. It sets us up so well and elite C's like that are so hard to come by.

If we're dreaming though, how about we swap the NYR pick this year with the Coyotes 1st next year, and have that pick win the lottery and we end up with Laine and Patrick?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't understand the Puljujarvi hype, I have posted this before but here's his draft year compared to Armia's in the same league

Player|Games|Goals|Assists|Points|Penalty Mins
Armia|48|18|11|29|24
Puljujarvi|50|13|15|28|22

I don't understand the hype at all. If we are questioning Juolevi's ranking being buoyed by the the Juniors, how much is Puljujarvi's ranking being boosted by the same tournament. His Liiga stats are virtually identical to Armia's. Armia was ranked as a mid 1st round pick

First, a lot of the enthusiasm for both Finns is based on the WJC performances. Second, Armia has so far failed to live up to expectations, plain and simple. There was a lot of excitement here when he strung together a few good games but he still has only scored 10 pts in 44 games. We don't write-off or even downgrade all players coming out of the Finnish league because Armia is underperforming. Finally, yes I agree. You have a good point. Never mind how Armia has performed since his draft. Why the difference in the pre-draft ranking? It will be interesting to see how this year's 2 Finns look in a couple of years time.

 

[surixon]

First, a lot of the enthusiasm for both Finns is based on the WJC performances. Second, Armia has so far failed to live up to expectations, plain and simple. There was a lot of excitement here when he strung together a few good games but he still has only scored 10 pts in 44 games. We don't write-off or even downgrade all players coming out of the Finnish league because Armia is underperforming. Finally, yes I agree. You have a good point. Never mind how Armia has performed since his draft. Why the difference in the pre-draft ranking? It will be interesting to see how this year's 2 Finns look in a couple of years time.

I think both Fins also excelled as underage players at last year's U18 World Championships as well. Pool party also seems to be playing well in this year's event. So there ranking is likely based on positive showings in a number of events, not just their play at the WJC.

 

[Jetabre]

Puljujarvi was also at the U20's last year, and I remember coming away impressed despite him coming up with 0 points in 5 games. Looked dangerous, just couldn't buy a goal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think both Fins also excelled as underage players at last year's U18 World Championships as well. Pool party also seems to be playing well in this year's event. So there ranking is likely based on positive showings in a number of events, not just their play at the WJC.

The comparison to Armia still stands up pretty well. He was outstanding in U18 and U17. He wasn't that great at WJC until the year after his draft but his resume looked an awful lot like Laine's and Pulju's look this year. Not identical but very close.

 

[surixon]

The comparison to Armia still stands up pretty well. He was outstanding in U18 and U17. He wasn't that great at WJC until the year after his draft but his resume looked an awful lot like Laine's and Pulju's look this year. Not identical but very close.

Yeah it is hard to get a good read as to why Armia didn't develop as expected. I actually see some Armia I Pool party where I watch him play but it looks like the later has better vision and playmaking skills.

 

[Whileee]

An Oilers fan on the main board posted this comparing players on "super-lines" from the past like Tkatchuk is on right now (ofcourse the Oilers fan was trying to use this to anti-hype Marner but could be applicable to Tkachuck). Will curb a lot of people's enthusiasm:

In the other two cases, 3 of the 4 linemates were 19. The only exception was Gagner, and he had about 30 fewer points that Kane, who was the same age. Tkachuk is the youngest player on his line.

I don't understand the Puljujarvi hype, I have posted this before but here's his draft year compared to Armia's in the same league

Player|Games|Goals|Assists|Points|Penalty Mins
Armia|48|18|11|29|24
Puljujarvi|50|13|15|28|22

I don't understand the hype at all. If we are questioning Juolevi's ranking being buoyed by the the Juniors, how much is Puljujarvi's ranking being boosted by the same tournament. His Liiga stats are virtually identical to Armia's. Armia was ranked as a mid 1st round pick

The Puljujarvi "hype" is shared by just about every analyst and scout. Even though he was obviously dead tired in the U-18 game against Canada, I thought he was very impressive. On several shifts he completely dominated. Maybe a player like PLD or Jost will exceed him, but right now he looks to me like a top-3 pick.

 

[JetsFan815]

First, a lot of the enthusiasm for both Finns is based on the WJC performances. Second, Armia has so far failed to live up to expectations, plain and simple. There was a lot of excitement here when he strung together a few good games but he still has only scored 10 pts in 44 games. We don't write-off or even downgrade all players coming out of the Finnish league because Armia is underperforming. Finally, yes I agree. You have a good point. Never mind how Armia has performed since his draft. Why the difference in the pre-draft ranking? It will be interesting to see how this year's 2 Finns look in a couple of years time.

Yeah I am not even looking at how Armia has turned out, just his predraft ranking, even Rantanen last year with similar numbers was ranked between 8-12 on most lists, so it makes me wonder why Puljuarvi is being talked about as a "can't miss" prospect

In the other two cases, 3 of the 4 linemates were 19. The only exception was Gagner, and he had about 30 fewer points that Kane, who was the same age. Tkachuk is the youngest player on his line.



The Puljujarvi "hype" is shared by just about every analyst and scout. Even though he was obviously dead tired in the U-18 game against Canada, I thought he was very impressive. On several shifts he completely dominated. Maybe a player like PLD or Jost will exceed him, but right now he looks to me like a top-3 pick.

I am not saying the person who posted that was unbiased (obviously they had an agenda to reverse-hype Marner) but something to consider with Tkatchuk, you never know with these "super-lines"

If Puljuarvi is that much better than Rantanen and Armia were in their pre-draft year then you would expect to see something indicating that in his numbers, wouldn't you?

Reading this thread and comments about Juolevi has killed my buzz lol. The only way I will feel the same happiness with our first pick that I did with Connor last year and Ehlers the year before is if we get Matthews, Laine or PLD. I would learn to love whoever we draft but it won't be the same as it was with Ehlers or Connor which is a shame after all the pain this season.

 

[JetsFan815]

I know it wasn't you who posted those numbers, but just to easily refute it (see in bold):



So in this case Tkachuk is 2 years younger than the top scorer (Dvorak), and 1 year younger than 2nd scorer (Marner). In the other cases the 2nd and 3rd scorers are either the same draft year, or older than the top scorer. A year or two makes a big difference in scoring numbers, so the OP trying to post those numbers to make his point was entirely disingenuous.

That's a fair point, I wasn't calling Tkachuck a bad pick, just saying that he isn't without question marks

 

[Mathil8]

That's a fair point, I wasn't calling Tkachuck a bad pick, just saying that he isn't without question marks

Yeah I get it. I'm not super high on him either, but if we landed him I definitely would not be upset. My ever fluctuating top 10:

Matthews
Laine
Dubois/Poolparty
Tkachuk/Chychrun
Sergachev/Jost/Juolevi
Nylander

I also quite like Fabbro.

 

[ps241]

An Oilers fan on the main board posted this comparing players on "super-lines" from the past like Tkatchuk is on right now (ofcourse the Oilers fan was trying to use this to anti-hype Marner but could be applicable to Tkachuck). Will curb a lot of people's enthusiasm:

Ok so yesterday I polled the London fan base to get a feel for what they were thinking about Juolevi and that seemed to go over so well here I thought I would recon a bit more intel on Tkachuk. This time I didn't ask the question but I did notice this stream today which is a bit different.

I'm a knights fan (live in London) and have watched them all year long. I would love for the leafs to take Tkachuk at 4, not because of his chemistry but his skills and talent are off the charts. I feel like the people shooting him down haven't been watching him all season long, game in game out. The most popular knock on him is his secondary assists and that he's only a complimentary player. This, in my opinion is absolutely false, he is a driving force on that line and brings a combination of things that makes it so successful. He's got the strength, the desire, the speed, the shot, puck skills, vision, he is a coaches dream.

As a long time season tic holder in London....I agree

Marner and Dvorak work better with guys who will win battles down low and help them retain the puck and play in close. Reason they played better with McCarron or Rupurt last year. Tkachuk is a much more talented version of this.

I can't help thinking that the fans of the team that picks him will hate it but he will turn out to be a good, solid player. I think 6th to 8th is the best place for him to slot in, not 4th.

Just to be clear this lines up with exactly how I felt when I watched Tkachuk last week. I went from thinking the worst that maybe he was leaching cheap points to going, wait a second this guy is a very key piece on this line. He was much more skilled and much more physically engaged than I thought he would be. Not really complimentary as much as a guy with a clear identity that may not need the puck on his stick as much as Marner but he very much impacts results.

Ok flame away

 

[Flair Hay]

Yeah I am not even looking at how Armia has turned out, just his predraft ranking, even Rantanen last year with similar numbers was ranked between 8-12 on most lists, so it makes me wonder why Puljuarvi is being talked about as a "can't miss" prospect



I am not saying the person who posted that was unbiased (obviously they had an agenda to reverse-hype Marner) but something to consider with Tkatchuk, you never know with these "super-lines"

If Puljuarvi is that much better than Rantanen and Armia were in their pre-draft year then you would expect to see something indicating that in his numbers, wouldn't you?

Reading this thread and comments about Juolevi has killed my buzz lol. The only way I will feel the same happiness with our first pick that I did with Connor last year and Ehlers the year before is if we get Matthews, Laine or PLD. I would learn to love whoever we draft but it won't be the same as it was with Ehlers or Connor which is a shame after all the pain this season.

Fair questions to ask about Pulijarvi. But Rantonen looks like he should have been talked about as can't miss after the season he just had.

 

[ps241]

Yeah I get it. I'm not super high on him either, but if we landed him I definitely would not be upset. My ever fluctuating top 10:

Matthews
Laine
Dubois/Poolparty
Tkachuk/Chychrun
Sergachev/Jost/Juolevi
Nylander

I also quite like Fabbro.

The bolded is how I am feeling about the top 6 too but the funny thing is I believe Nylander is talented enough to be on my Tkachuk/Chychrun tier but I am catching myself falling into the trap of thinking "well we already have Ehlers and Connor so do we really need Nylander??" ....I am a BPA hawk so intellectually this flies in the face of my beliefs so why am I feeling like this??

Too much time between the end of the season and the draft

 

[Mathil8]

The bolded is how I am feeling about the top 6 too but the funny thing is I believe Nylander is talented enough to be on my Tkachuk/Chychrun tier but I am catching myself falling into the trap of thinking "well we already have Ehlers and Connor so do we really need Nylander??" ....I am a BPA hawk so intellectually this flies in the face of my beliefs so why am I feeling like this??

Too much time between the end of the season and the draft

Yeah, I feel I'm discounting Nylander for the exact same reason as well. Also because his brother playing for Toronto automatically gives his name a sour taste on my tongue. Just imagine the trade offers we'd get to reunite the brothers

I still can't believe they've delayed the lottery as long as they have this year

 

[Whileee]

Yeah, I feel I'm discounting Nylander for the exact same reason as well. Also because his brother playing for Toronto automatically gives his name a sour taste on my tongue. Just imagine the trade offers we'd get to reunite the brothers

I still can't believe they've delayed the lottery as long as they have this year

The delay in the lottery allows us to keep our hopes up for longer...

 

[ps241]

Yeah, I feel I'm discounting Nylander for the exact same reason as well. Also because his brother playing for Toronto automatically gives his name a sour taste on my tongue. Just imagine the trade offers we'd get to reunite the brothers

I still can't believe they've delayed the lottery as long as they have this year

Ok I laughed out loud just now.

So true.

Hey the good thing about the long wait is that we still have hope

edit: dam Whileee beat me to it lol

 

[Daximus]

I'm okay with Jost can we just take him now and run?

 

[Gm0ney]

Ok so yesterday I polled the London fan base to get a feel for what they were thinking about Juolevi and that seemed to go over so well here I thought I would recon a bit more intel on Tkachuk. This time I didn't ask the question but I did notice this stream today which is a bit different.




Just to be clear this lines up with exactly how I felt when I watched Tkachuk last week. I went from thinking the worst that maybe he was leaching cheap points to going, wait a second this guy is a very key piece on this line. He was much more skilled and much more physically engaged than I thought he would be. Not really complimentary as much as a guy with a clear identity that may not need the puck on his stick as much as Marner but he very much impacts results.

Ok flame away

Is Tkachuk's playoff performance going to raise his stock right back to #4 again? PLD's got 7G-5A-12P in 12 games vs. Tkachuk's 13G-13A-26P in 11 games. Crazy...

 

[zsam]

I'm okay with Jost can we just take him now and run?

I'll start the car ...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah I am not even looking at how Armia has turned out, just his predraft ranking, even Rantanen last year with similar numbers was ranked between 8-12 on most lists, so it makes me wonder why Puljuarvi is being talked about as a "can't miss" prospect



I am not saying the person who posted that was unbiased (obviously they had an agenda to reverse-hype Marner) but something to consider with Tkatchuk, you never know with these "super-lines"

If Puljuarvi is that much better than Rantanen and Armia were in their pre-draft year then you would expect to see something indicating that in his numbers, wouldn't you?

Reading this thread and comments about Juolevi has killed my buzz lol. The only way I will feel the same happiness with our first pick that I did with Connor last year and Ehlers the year before is if we get Matthews, Laine or PLD. I would learn to love whoever we draft but it won't be the same as it was with Ehlers or Connor which is a shame after all the pain this season.

Why do you like Laine significantly better than Puljujarvi? There isn't a lot to choose between them any more than there is compared to Armia or Rantanen. Pool Party was better in the play-offs. Some of the experts have been sticking to Pulju over Laine.

If your hesitation over the Finns is born out then it works for us to pick 6th and let other teams take them. Getting a top 3 pick is still better as long as Chevy picks the right player of course. It would be fun to get the second lottery win and take PLD or Chych and have them turn out to be the 2nd best player in the draft. Or better yet turn out best. It would be even more fun to pick one of them 6th and have him turn out top 2 though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The bolded is how I am feeling about the top 6 too but the funny thing is I believe Nylander is talented enough to be on my Tkachuk/Chychrun tier but I am catching myself falling into the trap of thinking "well we already have Ehlers and Connor so do we really need Nylander??" ....I am a BPA hawk so intellectually this flies in the face of my beliefs so why am I feeling like this??

Too much time between the end of the season and the draft

How about because most of the time no one really knows who the BPA is?

 

[ps241]

How about because most of the time no one really knows who the BPA is?

BPA is tough to nail down for sure but there is more at play when it comes to Nylander for me.....I think he is really talented but I believe I am recoiling a bit for reasons outside his skill. He is another skilled finesse forward and maybe o just don't want to end up with too many of this type. Not sure Mort

 

[ps241]

Is Tkachuk's playoff performance going to raise his stock right back to #4 again? PLD's got 7G-5A-12P in 12 games vs. Tkachuk's 13G-13A-26P in 11 games. Crazy...

I still like PLD more personally but yea I could see Tkachuk going #4 for sure.