2016 NHL Draft - Part 3 - June 24th

[tucknroll]

Merkley was ranked in teens by some organizations. AZ was set to take Fisher at CHI pick but couldn't pass on a guy they had rated so high on their list.

Hindsight is 20/20 but Zacha and Barzal were locks for top 10. You knew they weren't going to be there at BOS pick. Zacha wasn't even someone that I really liked and didn't have in my top 10. Conner I recall liking but projections of a 1st line C weren't as confident. He's had a good developmental year since but again that's hindsight.

Here's a post I made last May (and some gems posted on these threads):
"If you feel that the only way to get that big first line C is through the draft then the pick at 3 is Strome.

Talent wise I have it Hanifin/Marner/Strome on my list but the gap is narrow and if it comes down to greatest positional need as the final criteria then Strome is the guy.

Hanifin is a blue chip player but with OEL we don't have as pressing of a need and this draft does have some very highly thought of options that should be available at Chicago's pick or our 2nd rounder. You go with Hanifin only if you perceive him to be the clear BPA.

Marner I love but he will play wing in the pros and while he is an extremely dynamic player he would add to an already extremely strong depth at wing in our prospect group in players like Duclair, Domi, Perlini, Lessio, and Samuellson. Unfortunately his selection doesn't address an immediate need; however if you view him as clearly the most dynamic forward with potential to be not just a star but a superstar then he could be viewed as the clear BPA at 3. One that an organization cannot afford to overlook.

My opinion: I have Strome at 5 but it sounds like organizational need is going to be the criteria which differentiates Strome from the mix.

That being said I view Strome favorably. His skating isn't as bad as people make it out to be (he's average) but it will improve. I view Strome as an extremely cerebral player who is extremely underrated as a scorer. I actually view him more of a sniper than a playmaker which is odd given he had over 80 assists.

For the record, here's my top 10:
1) McDavid
2) Eichel
3) Hanifin
4) Marner
5) Strome
6) Provorov
7) Barzal
8) Crouse
9) Rantanen
10) Werenski

Last edited by hbk: 05-15-2015 at 04:27 PM."

again, I think you would have been taking a gamble on a guy that you liked falling to BOS pick which I think would have been a risk.

Ok so saying for some reason Arizona for some reason doesn't want to "fill an organizational need" at # 13 or 14 when there are quality centers left but they are willing to do it at #3? doesn't seem to make sense to me. Merkley was rated mid teens yes, but the only centerman that i mentioned that was ranked behind him was White.
But its hardly hindsight when its more common sense, even on your rankings one of those center prospects would have been available
All of their developments were very predictable too, thats why last years draft was so great because it was so incredibly deep, Connor/Barzal both looked like 1st line centers (not elite but 1st line none the less). Zacha/White/ Konecny all looked like very high end second line centers and still do.
It's only a gamble if you're setting your sights on 1 or 2 players that could be gone, there was easily 5 prospects and there was no way they would have all been drafted.... and 4/5 would have been available looking in hindsight

Solid mock though, Similar to my rankings

1. Mcdavid
2. Eichel
3. Marner
4. Provorov
5. Hanifin
6/7. Strome/Barzal
8. Werenski
9/10. Rantanen/ Zacha

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

Last year Barzal and Connor did not look like first line centers. There were warts with those players and pretending there weren't is stupid.

People wondered about Barzals ability to finish, as he had never scored more than 15 goals in the WHL. Likewise, Connor was coming out of the USHL and people questioned quality of competition. Hell, he wasn't even necessarily projected as a center. Have they improved their stock as prospects, sure, but lets not pretend like they were slam dunk prospects.

Colin White was a complementary player on the U18 and was seen as a third line type guy.

You've using future knowledge of how these guys have developed and using it further your argument which is stupid.

 

[hbk]

Brown&Fabbro=Dream Draft

Absolutely. Sign me up!

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

I'd be thrilled with Brown and Fabbro

I don't like the top 3 Dman at 7 though, so I'm prob biased

I also hope we stay the hell away from Logan Stanley as well. Last thing we need is Jared Tinordi 2.0

 

[Mosby]

Agree with your sentiments about Stanley. Tinordi seems like the perfect comparison.

 

[RABBIT]

Absolutely. Sign me up!

HBK for AGM

 

[Matias Maccete]

Brown and Fabbro in the first would be amazing.

 

[BUX7PHX]

http://thehockeywriters.com/5th-annual-nhl-mock-draft-2016-round-1/

They've got us taking

1-7 - Logan Brown
1-20 - Fabbro
2-37 - Raddysh
2-53 - Johansen
3-38 - Green

^ this would be an excellent draft. I'd be thrilled with that haul.

Love it.

But enormously skeptical that Fabbro makes it to us at #20. Now, if we were able to trade back and take Fabbro and Kunin with our first two picks (in that order), how much does that change opinion? I am assuming that we would be picking up a roster player or another high pick (top 50, at least) with a trade back. An additional pick could net a player like Bastian, Morrison, or others that could help keep depth at forward. I wouldn't mind adding another C or RW (specifically RH) to the mix.

 

[tucknroll]

Last year Barzal and Connor did not look like first line centers. There were warts with those players and pretending there weren't is stupid.

People wondered about Barzals ability to finish, as he had never scored more than 15 goals in the WHL. Likewise, Connor was coming out of the USHL and people questioned quality of competition. Hell, he wasn't even necessarily projected as a center. Have they improved their stock as prospects, sure, but lets not pretend like they were slam dunk prospects.

Colin White was a complementary player on the U18 and was seen as a third line type guy.

You've using future knowledge of how these guys have developed and using it further your argument which is stupid.

Barzal's not a finisher though, he's an elite playmaker, which everyone had seen, main reason he was suppose to be a lock for top 10, theres nothing very warty about that, many playmakers have great careers while not being amazing goal-scorers, his ability to control the puck on his stick along with his vision were incredible
Connors league was a worry but when you dominate the league like he did it really shouldn't be, the USHL is the best junior hockey league in north america and he destroyed it back to back years, he's 5th in all-time points and he only played till he was 18.
White was always viewed as second line, Complimentary or not he was great two-way and had plenty of offensive ability. He probably would have been last out of the 5 guys i listed though, Konecny is just too skilled and great all-round not to love more. Only knock on him was his height and shoulder.
and most of those warts mentioned were a lot less obvious than Strome's were... played PP with McDavid, didn't play against other teams top defence lines, and his skating was one of the worst in the first round, lets not act like he was a slam dunk either
None of these judgements are based off of knowing what they are now, these were as obvious then as they are now (were all over each ones scouting report)... all have for sure developed great this year though, Strome has done great aswell, But i'd take any one of the 5 others and Hamilton over Strome.. a year ago and even more now

 

[tucknroll]

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/06/final-mediascout-top-10-for-2016.html

 

[rt]

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/06/final-mediascout-top-10-for-2016.html

7+20+67 for 4+32

Take Tkachuk

 

[AZviaNJ]

7+20+67 for 4+32

Take Tkachuk

Brown's rise & Edm's need for D may just land Tkachuk in AZ. Hoping!

 

[Llewzaher]

I would be happy with Brown , as well.

 

[Snarky Coyote]

Really don't want Tkachuck. Still scarred by the way Walt treated this team as an ATM, pushing himself out of town. Don't even want to see that happen again with his kid. Holdouts are bad mkay!

 

[doaner]

Really don't want Tkachuck. Still scarred by the way Walt treated this team as an ATM, pushing himself out of town. Don't even want to see that happen again with his kid. Holdouts are bad mkay!

Different ownership group. Don't blame the players one bit in that particular scenario. They were crap owners!!

 

[hbk]

Different ownership group. Don't blame the players one bit in that particular scenario. They were crap owners!!

He did it like 12 times with several sets of owners. One time he held out for a renegotiation. Got it. And held out again the following year.

 

[ck26]

7+20+67 for 4+32

Take Tkachuk

I like Tkachuk, but I don't love him. Downgrading 20 to 32 removes any hope of a McAvoy, Fabbro or Jones falling to us. Hell, I almost like Jones as much as I do Tkachuk. Seems counter-intuitive to not upgrade high picks so that I can protect low picks, but 20 to 32 looks like a plateau drop this year when 4 to 7 isn't.

 

[tucknroll]

I like Tkachuk, but I don't love him. Downgrading 20 to 32 removes any hope of a McAvoy, Fabbro or Jones falling to us. Hell, I almost like Jones as much as I do Tkachuk. Seems counter-intuitive to not upgrade high picks so that I can protect low picks, but 20 to 32 looks like a plateau drop this year when 4 to 7 isn't.

I mostly agree with this, the main reason Tkachuk (who i'd rank very well above Jones, but i agree with liking Jones) should go 4OV is because that's where EDM is drafting. He's the perfect complimentary player, he will always excel best with someone on his line to drive the offence like Marner or Matthews...McDavid? (ARZ just doesn't have that kind of player yet). In almost any other case PLD should be the no brainer pick at 4OV unless Puljujarvi isn't picked at #3. Dubois is a big two-way power forward that put up similar points to Tkachuk, but he wasn't player with OHL player of the year and he also lead his team offensively instead of being 3rd. Also plays center or left wing.
Staying at 7th and drafting Keller or even Brown (who i still have around 10-12) would be better than giving the 20th (which is an awesome pick for whoever starts falling) away for Tkachuk. ARZ is in the perfect scenario to have an awesome draft with #7,20,37 but i don't hate the idea of getting #4 for PLD at all though.

potentially great scenarios...?

4+32= PLD/JP + Dineen (if he's even there in the second round, i'd even use the 20th on him)/Allard/Morrison?

7+20+37= Keller/Chychrun/Brown + Kunin/McAvoy/Fabbro + Dineen/ Allard/ Morrison?

 

[rt]

I think Tkachuk has the 2nd or 3rd highest floor in the draft.

 

[Jakey53]

Different ownership group. Don't blame the players one bit in that particular scenario. They were crap owners!!

Don't blame the owners. It's the agents that cause these problems.

He did it like 12 times with several sets of owners. One time he held out for a renegotiation. Got it. And held out again the following year.

Most times it's the agents that cause the problems, but Tkachuk took the cake. I think he was the problem as much as his agent. He thought he was above and beyond everyone else. His son may or may not be a problem, but there has to be a red flag there.

 

[tucknroll]

I think Tkachuk has the 2nd or 3rd highest floor in the draft.

Don't get me wrong, Tkachuk is a great player and i have his floor around 4th or 5th on my list (which is 2 different, so close with your opinion too) which makes him a very safe pick, but that's also why his draft position is high, problem is his ceiling is around the same as his floor, he's a player that you know what you're getting, but you're not very likely to get much more, a JVR thats better at D is my comparison... which is a solid pick but Dubois has roughly the same floor as Tkachuk but fairly higher ceiling and is a center. Drafting at 7th there are potential #1 defencemen, or Elite scoring wingers or a big center, not as much as a guarantee, but the payoff is greater. Trading for Barrie is still an option with the pick too

 

[BUX7PHX]

Once draft day rolls around, I truly believe that multiple teams will be calling Arizona about the #7 pick. It will be all about the one player who teams have high on their board (likely Brown, but could include Nylander, Keller, Jost, or one of the defensemen).

Depending on who is trying to move up, and how our draft board looks, I just can't see us keeping the #7 pick. I also disagree completely with moving up. It is nice to get more of a sure thing, but we could also be picking up the Brandon Gormley/David Rundblad of the draft, and then what? (<-- don't think that Tkachuk is in any way going to plateau like that, but hey, weirder things have happened). In that sense, we didn't help our team in any way, and made it more difficult to get a return on a future deal for Tkachuk. If you are going to make a mistake in a draft, do so by taking the guy who falls or trade back so there is less of a risk. Don't move up to make a potential mistake.

 

[Jakey53]

Once draft day rolls around, I truly believe that multiple teams will be calling Arizona about the #7 pick. It will be all about the one player who teams have high on their board (likely Brown, but could include Nylander, Keller, Jost, or one of the defensemen).

Depending on who is trying to move up, and how our draft board looks, I just can't see us keeping the #7 pick. I also disagree completely with moving up. It is nice to get more of a sure thing, but we could also be picking up the Brandon Gormley/David Rundblad of the draft, and then what? (<-- don't think that Tkachuk is in any way going to plateau like that, but hey, weirder things have happened). In that sense, we didn't help our team in any way, and made it more difficult to get a return on a future deal for Tkachuk. If you are going to make a mistake in a draft, do so by taking the guy who falls or trade back so there is less of a risk. Don't move up to make a potential mistake.

The draft is a crap shoot. You go with what your scouts say and hope for the best. I have no problem moving up, down or staying pat. It all depends on the circumstances.

 

[BUX7PHX]

The draft is a crap shoot. You go with what your scouts say and hope for the best. I have no problem moving up, down or staying pat. It all depends on the circumstances.

Agree that draft is a crap shoot. Theoretically, you should be getting a better player at #5 than #7, and #7 than #12, and so on.

But when you talk circumstances, what circumstance do we have where moving up makes sense? If it is for one of the top 3 forwards, okay, but there is still a massive price to pay for that.

We have enough holes on the NHL roster blue line and enough overall holes in our prospect line (mainly on the blue line) that the circumstance of trading up for Tkachuk and PLD will cost us potential improvement on both of those accounts. If we had a stacked defensive prospect pool, then I would probably be pushing for a move up in the draft, given our resources. But there is little that I have seen to suggest that Tkachuk is worth the negative equity of replenishing our defensive prospects. Unless the entire 2nd and early 3rd round is littered with about 25 potential D prospects that all have tremendous upside.

 

[zerekstar]

Don't blame the owners. It's the agents that cause these problems.



Most times it's the agents that cause the problems, but Tkachuk took the cake. I think he was the problem as much as his agent. He thought he was above and beyond everyone else. His son may or may not be a problem, but there has to be a red flag there.

I guess no one knows for sure but it appeared Tkachuk and Roenick had a hand in the trashing of the hotel rooms at the Olympics way back which was pretty classless. I hope young Tkachuk has a little more then his dad seemed too.