2016 Draft Thread III (June 24-25, 7PM)

[Double-Shift Lasse]

It isn't really "value" until the performances start resulting in NHL production and wins. Getting a guy projected to go #10 at #15 could mean 2 things 1) you got the 10th best player at #15 or 2) the teams picking from #10-14 were smarter than you were when they passed on him. I agree that the prospect list looks better. But everyone putting together prospect lists thought Filatov was elite before he proved he wasn't.

So passing on JP to take Brown might be because team 3 was smarter than team whoever drafts Pulju?

 

[KJ Dangler]

Logan Brown is the same exact situation as Ryan Johansen was . His last 3 months, he improved more than he did the prior 3 years . Keep in mind someone that is 6-6 220 just turned 18, that his coordination is probably still coming around . Here's a couple highlight tapes on him

https://youtu.be/zzbD_ywcZb0


https://youtu.be/Z3WeXQSGTCs

 

[Crede777]

No way!

Yes way.

Werenski has tremendous upside, but we could be getting carried away. Until he's actually in the NHL and producing, I wouldn't put him ahead of Ryan Murray (who at times was better than even Jones).

Don't forget, one of Jarmo's biggest moves in his career was trading David Rundblad for the 10th OA and taking Tarasenko. Everyone thought Rundblad was a lock to be a top-pairing guy.

Agreed. I'm not trying to say Jarmo's reputation is false, because he clearly knows what he's doing, but the notion of him being one of the best drafters in the NHL is too much. People bring up Lake Erie's success when they don't realize alot of the team was Howson's guys, including both goalies. Sure, Jarmo brought in the best player on that team (Bjorkstrand) and top dman (Werenski),but Werenski was an easy pick in his position. We'll see how they do once Howson's guys start graduating (Goalies, Anderson, etc) and his guys fully take over.

Agreed. I'm not particularly hating on Jarmo (although it may seem that way). We ARE however jumping the gun on proclaiming him to be a draft genius and giving him full faith and credit.

The appeal to authority shouldn't work here. Everything he does needs to be questioned given the team's terrible performances the past 2 seasons.

I'm worried he's getting too much leeway in how to manage the team. We need someone (JD) to keep him in check and make sure he's doing the right moves from both a hockey as well as business perspective.

 

[KJ Dangler]

or is it the fact that we've been so historically bad in the draft that Jarmo is just ok but appears to be brilliant.

Again I don't know the answer to that - simply a question?

We usually always pick in the top 8 of the draft so there should be some expectation that we would get better players than most other teams.

I know he went somewhat off the radar and grabbed Hossa, when many thought it was a reach I believe at the 12 spot

Here's a blurb....
After he left Finland in 1999 Kekäläinen became director of Player Personnel of the Senators until 2002. While with the Senators he helped in picking future NHL stars Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat and Ray Emery. In 2002 Kekäläinen joined the St. Louis Blues as Assistant GM and Director of Amateur Scouting, where he helped draft much of the core of the team in the early 2010s, including defenseman Alex Pietrangelo and forwards T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, and David Backes. After being passed over for the Blues GM job (losing out to Doug Armstrong), Kekäläinen returned to the Finnish Elite League to take the GM job with Jokerit.

http://thehockeywriters.com/jarmo-kekalainen-draft-expert/

 

[EspenK]

We have gotten so much value for the where we have made our picks. Now, some guys still have to prove it, but they are showing that he has drafted EXTREMELY well.

Absolutely. You aren't going to get too many Connor McDavid types in the spots he has drafted.

 

[Crede777]

Absolutely. You aren't going to get too many Connor McDavid types in the spots he has drafted.

No but we can't really say that Rychel, Dano, or Milano were particularly great picks. Dano has shown the most so far and is currently on his 3rd team in 3 years.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

So passing on JP to take Brown might be because team 3 was smarter than team whoever drafts Pulju?

Of course. Logan Brown could be a combination of Phil Esposito and Wayne Gretzky and they could erect statues to his greatness and name a planet after him. And Puljujarvi could be a hockey version of Johnny Manziel. But I don't believe Jarmo has earned the blind trust to just say that Brown will be great and we should all genuflect to him.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

I know he went somewhat off the radar and grabbed Hossa, when many thought it was a reach I believe at the 12 spot

Here's a blurb....
After he left Finland in 1999 Kekäläinen became director of Player Personnel of the Senators until 2002. While with the Senators he helped in picking future NHL stars Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat and Ray Emery. In 2002 Kekäläinen joined the St. Louis Blues as Assistant GM and Director of Amateur Scouting, where he helped draft much of the core of the team in the early 2010s, including defenseman Alex Pietrangelo and forwards T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, and David Backes. After being passed over for the Blues GM job (losing out to Doug Armstrong), Kekäläinen returned to the Finnish Elite League to take the GM job with Jokerit.

Big difference between being a voice in the process and making the call.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

No but we can't really say that Rychel, Dano, or Milano were particularly great picks. Dano has shown the most so far and is currently on his 3rd team in 3 years.

Dano hasn't shown more than Wennberg.

Of course.

Literally all you needed to say.

Logan Brown could be a combination of Phil Esposito and Wayne Gretzky and they could erect statues to his greatness and name a planet after him. And Puljujarvi could be a hockey version of Johnny Manziel. But I don't believe Jarmo has earned the blind trust to just say that Brown will be great and we should all genuflect to him.

This is all either hyperbole or not a response to my question.

 

[Crede777]

Dano hasn't shown more than Wennberg.

I meant Dano has shown the most out of him, Rychel, and Milano.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Big difference between being a voice in the process and making the call.

He was a natural, and many around the league believe he's one of the top talent evaluators in the business. Alongside Davidson in St. Louis (and working with the Blues beginning in 2002), Kekalainen helped rebuild an organization which had a dry talent pipeline and turned it into one brimming with bright young talent, with names like David Perron, David Backes, TJ Oshie and Alex Pietrangelo forming the Blues' nucleus.

Probably better to trust what his peers say about his eye for talent


The list of players that Kekalainen helped bring to St. Louis include David Backes, David Perron, T.J. Oshie and Alex Pietrangelo. His eye for talent is superior.

This begs the question: Has Kekalainen cracked the code of sorts when it comes to draft success? He brought star-caliber players to both Ottawa and St. Louis. He’s doing the same now in Columbus. How is he able to consistently do this over the years with different teams?

The answer is surprisingly simple. Kekalainen is one of the best in the business at spotting talent. The thing that gives him a leg up is his familiarity with Europe.

So what is Kekalainen’s advantage? He has more experience and resources available to him than most general managers. Other GMs may look to their scouting staff when deciding if they will take an international player. Kekalainen already has that knowledge due to his time as a general manager in Europe. Very few can match that experience.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Dano hasn't shown more than Wennberg.



Literally all you needed to say.



This is all either hyperbole or not a response to my question.

Draft discussion is all about making current evaluations on things that are by definition unknowable until some amount of time has passed. Every team potentially will have picked a superstar in the draft. If Columbus takes Brown instead of Puljujarvi they must believe he is better. In every draft people believe they took the best guy at that spot and often they are proven to be very wrong.

As this draft occurs Columbus can either take the guy left from the top 3 that everyone said was the big prize for moving up in the lottery or they can look elsewhere. Some on this board seem to say that "Jarmo thinks Brown is better so there is nothing more I need to know." I choose to be skeptical and think they should just take the obvious choice. Either way, the "right answer" will probably be 3-5 years away.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Look, I'm hoping we take Jesse , been that way since it was announced we had the 3 pick, but..., if your Jarmo, and you feel that it's nearly a toss up between Jesse, and Brown, and Brown is a center , and you can unload a player to allow moves for the future, or get additional assets , you would be crazy not to do that . Having said that, here is Tim Murray this am...


"You’d have to knock both socks off and a couple pairs out of his drawer to get the deal done," GMTM said Tuesday.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Look, I'm hoping we take Jesse , been that way since it was announced we had the 3 pick, but..., if your Jarmo, and you feel that it's nearly a toss up between Jesse, and Brown, and Brown is a center , and you can unload a player to allow moves for the future, or get additional assets , you would be crazy not to do that . Having said that, here is Tim Murray this am...


"You’d have to knock both socks off and a couple pairs out of his drawer to get the deal done," GMTM said Tuesday.

What if he takes Brown at 3?

 

[Boomshakalaka]

I think the FO would have to be crazy not to take JP over Brown, unless they got a trade that was just absolutely crazy. I think JP will adapt faster than Laine to North American hockey even though that is one hell of a shot that Laine has. Really sold on JP. Really at this point more interested in what round 2 will give us if JK can find that gem.

 

[KJ Dangler]

What if he takes Brown at 3?

Don't see that happening , Porty just posted , someone said a week ago he felt odds were at 90 percent we draft Jesse at 3 , what are odds today we keep pick and draft Jesse ...he replied 67%

 

[BluejacketNut]

What if he takes Brown at 3?

Then he should be fired on the spot for not getting anything out of what many are considering an elite prospect.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I meant Dano has shown the most out of him, Rychel, and Milano.

OK cool I gotta follow the entire discussion.

Draft discussion is all about making current evaluations on things that are by definition unknowable until some amount of time has passed. Every team potentially will have picked a superstar in the draft. If Columbus takes Brown instead of Puljujarvi they must believe he is better. In every draft people believe they took the best guy at that spot and often they are proven to be very wrong.

As this draft occurs Columbus can either take the guy left from the top 3 that everyone said was the big prize for moving up in the lottery or they can look elsewhere. Some on this board seem to say that "Jarmo thinks Brown is better so there is nothing more I need to know." I choose to be skeptical and think they should just take the obvious choice. Either way, the "right answer" will probably be 3-5 years away.

I didn't say not to be skeptical. I just asked if what you applied in the theoretical was applicable in the specific. Because I'll say this, it sounds as you equivocate on this subject that what you're actually trying to do is use the "value" method against the CBJ GM in both directions.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Then he should be fired on the spot for not getting anything out of what many are considering an elite prospect.

I'm sure this is a sarcastic response , not trusting his scouts and going by pundits or others . His scouts all know what they want , plus they interviewed the players .

 

[KJ Dangler]

Guys relax , it's pretty easy to see . Jesse is their guy, and they will take him at 3 , if someone overpays , by a lot , we will take that and be better off with combined assets , and Logan Brown . Why the panic ? Porty has hinted the whole time , a few weeks ago on Twitter when Jd gave an interview during maybe game 3 intermission, he made a statement , can't recall the specifics, and I asked Porty point blank about it, his quote was the Jackets love the player in reference to Jessie .

We know as of yesterday , there were 10 offers for the 3 , some very good . I'm sure they have metrics to weigh the outcomes, and will make the best decision for the Jackets .

 

[hardkorejackets]

I think it's too early to really judge Jarmo by his drafting success here to be honest.. But, I think we have had some decent success. I wouldn't mind for us to hit on a couple more prospects but there could be some late developers.

Good picks- Alex Wennberg is looking like a good pick at #15, could even be a lite #1 NHL center. Marko Dano was able to get us Brandon Saad. Oliver Bjorkstrand was a pure gem at the tail end of the 3rd round. We stayed the course last year and ended up with Zach Werenski at #8 and he sort of took over the AHL playoffs by storm for an 18 year old prospect. Projecting him to be in the NHL in year 2 as a D-man, not bad.

I think it's too early to judge Jarmo on picking Sonny Milano. He was seen as a longer term pick at #16 in 2014 NHL draft with very good potential due to his speed, hands, and scoring resume for USDTP. There can certainly be improvements to his game, but I feel he could have a breakout season this next year.

 

[Crede777]

Guys relax , it's pretty easy to see . Jesse is their guy, and they will take him at 3 , if someone overpays , by a lot , we will take that and be better off with combined assets , and Logan Brown . Why the panic ? Porty has hinted the whole time , a few weeks ago on Twitter when Jd gave an interview during maybe game 3 intermission, he made a statement , can't recall the specifics, and I asked Porty point blank about it, his quote was the Jackets love the player in reference to Jessie .

We know as of yesterday , there were 10 offers for the 3 , some very good . I'm sure they have metrics to weigh the outcomes, and will make the best decision for the Jackets .

Basically, I'm just hoping it doesn't play out like this:

Columbus is on the clock.

Gary Bettman: "We have a trade to announce."

Columbus trades the 3rd overall pick and Scott Hartnell to XYZ for the 6th/7th/8th pick in the draft and the 36th/37th/38th pick in the draft.

Ville Siren: Columbus selects Logan Brown.

Jarmo and John Davidson: "Logan Brown is the guy we had targeted all along..."

I can't speak for others, but that situation is an impossible sell to me. Pick up a guy who can be our #1 center next season. Pick up multiple first round picks. Hell, have them throw in a stronger T-Shirt cannon. Just don't let that specific outcome be the narrative.

 

[Dr. Fire]

Guys relax , it's pretty easy to see . Jesse is their guy, and they will take him at 3 , if someone overpays , by a lot , we will take that and be better off with combined assets , and Logan Brown . Why the panic ? Porty has hinted the whole time , a few weeks ago on Twitter when Jd gave an interview during maybe game 3 intermission, he made a statement , can't recall the specifics, and I asked Porty point blank about it, his quote was the Jackets love the player in reference to Jessie .

We know as of yesterday , there were 10 offers for the 3 , some very good . I'm sure they have metrics to weigh the outcomes, and will make the best decision for the Jackets .

EXACTLY!!

It isn't like he is just going to give the pick away to move down. Some other team is going to have to make an offer that knocks JK's socks off, and returns us some very valuable assets.

I happen to think that it is a shrewd move by JK to throw out there that the #3 pick could be had. If a few teams lust after it enough, they indeed could make an offer that not only helps us in the future, but also helps us right freaking now!

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Basically, I'm just hoping it doesn't play out like this:

Columbus is on the clock.

"We have a trade to announce."

Columbus trades the 3rd overall pick and Scott Hartnell to XYZ for the 6th/7th/8th pick in the draft and the 36th/37th/38th pick in the draft.

Columbus selects Logan Brown.

Jarmo: "Logan Brown is the guy we had targeted all along..."

I can't speak for others, but that situation is an impossible sell to me. Pick up a guy who can be our #1 center next season. Pick up multiple first round picks. Hell, have them throw in a stronger T-Shirt cannon. Just don't let that specific outcome be the narrative.

It's a fair perspective but your scenario has a lot of moving parts. What if the trade isn't as you present it? What if the player selected at 6-8 isn't Logan Brown? I'm not asking you to break it down for me - consider the questions rhetorical.

 

[Crede777]

It's a fair perspective but your scenario has a lot of moving parts. What if the trade isn't as you present it? What if the player selected at 6-8 isn't Logan Brown? I'm not asking you to break it down for me - consider the questions rhetorical.

You're right. I'm just against that specific outcome though. I hope we either get Puljujarvi/Laine or the trade return is more than an added 2nd and taking on salary.

Not sure how I'd feel if he straight up drafted someone else with the 3 OA. On one hand... what? On the other hand, it speaks more towards how valuable that player appears to be.