2016 Draft Thread III (June 24-25, 7PM)

[CBJSlash]

If we are passing on Puljujärvi because we think Brown can be a #1 center then we think Brown is better. That's all there is too it.

There are 15-20 #1 centers in the league and if we think Brown can be a #1 center then that tells you high highly we think of him.

 

[Jackets16]

It really is very simple. IF we actually want to draft Brown, it is because we REALLY like him. No other reason. I personally agree with them. He is number 4 on my list. I'd probably take Puljujärvi, but Brown isn't that far behind, IMO.

 

[BluejacketNut]

Im just not convinced that our front office is smarter than everyone else, they sure as hell havent shown they are

 

[JacketsDavid]

Im just not convinced that our front office is smarter than everyone else, they sure as hell havent shown they are

You are what your record says you are.
You're either getting better or worse, no one ever stays the same.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Im just not convinced that our front office is smarter than everyone else, they sure as hell havent shown they are

Jarmo and his scouts have a pretty solid draft history , with St Louis , and Cbj. What's interesting , we invited 6 players , we know Jesse, Logan Brown, tchachuk, we never heard Laine's name . Jesse is a jarmo type player , elite hockey sense , speed, passing , I think if the peg doesn't draft him, we stay put at 3 and take Jesse , but I think they love Logan Brown as well, and see him as another Ry Jo, hopefully without the baggage , and if the value is there where they can get another piece , possibly unload a contract , they will go that route , because they view them that close , and it maximizes the most they can get out of the position they hold .

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Jarmo and his scouts have a pretty solid draft history , with St Louis , and Cbj. What's interesting , we invited 6 players , we know Jesse, Logan Brown, tchachuk, we never heard Laine's name . Jesse is a jarmo type player , elite hockey sense , speed, passing , I think if the peg doesn't draft him, we stay put at 3 and take Jesse , but I think they love Logan Brown as well, and see him as another Ry Jo, hopefully without the baggage , and if the value is there where they can get another piece , possibly unload a contract , they will go that route , because they view them that close , and it maximizes the most they can get out of the position they hold .

That's generally (pun intended) my current read as well. Fortunately, I won't have much more time to change my mind.

 

[CBJSlash]

If Jarmo (and fellow Finn Siren) decide to pass on the 2nd best Finnish prospect in the last 20 years to take Logan Brown... I think he knows what he's doing.

The only downside I see in Brown is it will take him 2-4 years where Jesse could plug in right away, but that's not why you draft.

 

[KJ Dangler]

If Jarmo (and fellow Finn Siren) decide to pass on the 2nd best Finnish prospect in the last 20 years to take Logan Brown... I think he knows what he's doing.

The only downside I see in Brown is it will take him 2-4 years where Jesse could plug in right away, but that's not why you draft.

Hard to say , I read a red wings site draft analysis that felt he could be ready as soon as next year , with his rapid improvement the last few months of the season, plus his 6-6 220 frame . Brown, like Werenski, has that twitch release ability on his shot , and gets it off almost instantly . I think honestly they like Jesse more , but they see the difference as pretty small, and most likes can garner some very solid , additional assets , and still get maybe their 1b guy

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

I am curious how all of you define a "#1 center". How many points does he have to score on a regular basis to reach that level? I ask because Brown only scored 21 goals in the OHL last year which does not strike me as enough to project him as an elite scorer in the NHL. Obviously he is young so that can improve, but at least for now he looks more like a passer than a shooter and isn't that already the knock on Wennberg?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

If Jarmo (and fellow Finn Siren) decide to pass on the 2nd best Finnish prospect in the last 20 years to take Logan Brown... I think he knows what he's doing.

The only downside I see in Brown is it will take him 2-4 years where Jesse could plug in right away, but that's not why you draft.

You do? I don't. I see it as an escape route for management. A way to cover their mistakes and have reasons to it.

"Look we got a break at the lottery. Now we can trade back and get a pretty good prospect who is a center , and relieve ourselves of cap and a bad contract." this Logan brown is a future #1 center thing that has come out of nowhere seems like a validation that Columbus is prepping their fans for him. I believe if our salary cap structure was fine, we'd run up and select Puljujarvi or Laine with no drama. If they trade this pick for a good package and take Logan brown, I believe it's because of covering for mistakes, not because they actually believe he's some great prospect.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

I am curious how all of you define a "#1 center". How many points does he have to score on a regular basis to reach that level?

60 pts. I think 60 pts makes you a legit #1 center.

And I think Saad-Wennberg-Bjorkstrand will allow Alex to get to 60 pts.

 

[Crede777]

You do? I don't. I see it as an escape route for management. A way to cover their mistakes and have reasons to it.

"Look we got a break at the lottery. Now we can trade back and get a pretty good prospect who is a center , and relieve ourselves of cap and a bad contract." this Logan brown is a future #1 center thing that has come out of nowhere seems like a validation that Columbus is prepping their fans for him. I believe if our salary cap structure was fine, we'd run up and select Puljujarvi or Laine with no drama. If they trade this pick for a good package and take Logan brown, I believe it's because of covering for mistakes, not because they actually believe he's some great prospect.

If Jarmo hadn't messed up our salary cap situation and hadn't traded away Johansen, I feel confident we'd be picking Puljujarvi no questions asked.

I really don't like Brown as a prospect. I think he compares more to Joe Colbourne than Joe Thornton. I also don't like how quickly he's moved up the draft board as well as the fact that he could be ~3 years away from being a solid NHL center. Ryan Johansen's development was a nightmare and for a few seasons it looked like we'd punted the pick by drafting a 3rd line guy.

I was upset we skipped on Fowler and still remain a bit upset by it today.

Further, it completely goes against the foundational rule of drafting: Don't draft based on position. Wipe the position slot off the prospect sheet.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I was listening to the NHL Network on Sirius XM this morning as they were talking about Edmonton and the likelihood that they will trade their first round pick 4A defenseman. It struck me that the Blue Jackets might offer for Ryan Murray for the 4th overall pick to take the center of their choice. Crazy?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I was listening to the NHL Network on Sirius XM this morning as they were talking about Edmonton and the likelihood that they will trade their first round pick 4A defenseman. It struck me that the Blue Jackets might offer for Ryan Murray for the 4th overall pick to take the center of their choice. Crazy?

Especially if the Jackets are truly in on Fowler (the source is Eklund so probably not but just to play along), then yeah this is something I could see.

 

[Jackets16]

I was listening to the NHL Network on Sirius XM this morning as they were talking about Edmonton and the likelihood that they will trade their first round pick 4A defenseman. It struck me that the Blue Jackets might offer for Ryan Murray for the 4th overall pick to take the center of their choice. Crazy?

I wouldn't do that, because then we are stuck looking for a defenseman again.

 

[CBJFan827]

60 pts. I think 60 pts makes you a legit #1 center.

And I think Saad-Wennberg-Bjorkstrand will allow Alex to get to 60 pts.

Based on this metric, 20 players qualified this season (several of which, like Forsberg and Pavelski, who spend the majority of their time on the wing) and 25 last year. Not that I have an issue with the metric--I just wanted to help expand on it.

After going through all the NHL rosters, I'd argue that there are 13 legitimate #1 centers in the league (Getzlaf, Krejci, Toews, Seguin, Kopitar, RyJo, Tavares, Giroux, Crosby, Malkin, Thornton, Stamkos, Backstrom), another 14 1/2 tweeners as of this moment who are a step back, and arguably 12 younger guys who have potential to be #1s (Reinhart, Eichel, McDavid, Bennett, Lindholm, Larkin, Draisaitl, Galchenyuk, Zacha, R. Strome, Scheifele, W. Nylander). I don't really have a metric here beyond my intuition.

I still hope the pick is Puljujarvi. I think he's the best player and best fit for us (other than Matthews, obviously). If someone blows their socks off and they trade back, I really like Clayton Keller.

But hey, so long as the pick isn't Tkachuk or Dubois, I'll be okay.

 

[Jackets16]

Especially if the Jackets are truly in on Fowler (the source is Eklund so probably not but just to play along), then yeah this is something I could see.

Murray is such a better fit for what we need though. Plus, what would we have to trade to get Fowler? Just seems like a lot to move and we don't improve, IMO.

 

[Monk]

I was upset we skipped on Fowler and still remain a bit upset by it today.

Just out of curiosity, would you rather have Fowler or Jones?

 

[Crede777]

I was listening to the NHL Network on Sirius XM this morning as they were talking about Edmonton and the likelihood that they will trade their first round pick 4A defenseman. It struck me that the Blue Jackets might offer for Ryan Murray for the 4th overall pick to take the center of their choice. Crazy?

I would probably move Werenski before I moved Murray.

That said, if we are targeting Fowler for some reason, I think Johnson needs to be the guy to go. Can't imagine Anaheim would go for that, but that's who Fowler *should* replace.

Just out of curiosity, would you rather have Fowler or Jones?

It's a wash. I'd almost rather have Fowler for the past 5 years. If you asked me back in 2010 would I rather have Fowler right now or Jones in 2016, I'd say Fowler, of course. Jones has the higher upside, but we had to wait 6(!) years to get him. That's similar to why I wouldn't take Kuznetsov in the 1st round. Yeah he's really good right now, but it took him about 4 years to even get to the NHL. Ain't nobody got time for that.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Where does the narrative come from that Jarmo is an elite draft talent evaluator? He was with some decent organizations before Columbus but he was not the guy in charge, just part of the evaluation team. He has been in charge of 3 drafts here. Because not that much time has passed, no one has yet to prove they are an elite NHL talent. If Wennberg is not a #1 guy--and apparently he isn't if that is why they are drooling over Brown-than he was not some magical pick. Rychel has done nothing special and will, at most, be a helper guy. Dano was a quick riser and used to get Saad, but is Dano an impact NHL player? He deserves some Kudos for Bjorkstrand but he, also, has yet to actually do it in the NHL. I like Werenski, but there is a big gap between having top defense pair potential and playing at that level. Bottom line, is that I don't believe he has reached the level where we should just defer to his genius and assume the consensus that Puljujarvi is the best guy is wrong.

 

[Jackets16]

I would probably move Werenski before I moved Murray.

That said, if we are targeting Fowler for some reason, I think Johnson needs to be the guy to go. Can't imagine Anaheim would go for that, but that's who Fowler *should* replace.



It's a wash. I'd almost rather have Fowler for the past 5 years. If you asked me back in 2010 would I rather have Fowler right now or Jones in 2016, I'd say Fowler, of course. Jones has the higher upside, but we had to wait 6(!) years to get him. That's similar to why I wouldn't take Kuznetsov in the 1st round. Yeah he's really good right now, but it took him about 4 years to even get to the NHL. Ain't nobody got time for that.

No way!

 

[Jackets16]

Where does the narrative come from that Jarmo is an elite draft talent evaluator? He was with some decent organizations before Columbus but he was not the guy in charge, just part of the evaluation team. He has been in charge of 3 drafts here. Because not that much time has passed, no one has yet to prove they are an elite NHL talent. If Wennberg is not a #1 guy--and apparently he isn't if that is why they are drooling over Brown-than he was not some magical pick. Rychel has done nothing special and will, at most, be a helper guy. Dano was a quick riser and used to get Saad, but is Dano an impact NHL player? He deserves some Kudos for Bjorkstrand but he, also, has yet to actually do it in the NHL. I like Werenski, but there is a big gap between having top defense pair potential and playing at that level. Bottom line, is that I don't believe he has reached the level where we should just defer to his genius and assume the consensus that Puljujarvi is the best guy is wrong.

We have gotten so much value for the where we have made our picks. Now, some guys still have to prove it, but they are showing that he has drafted EXTREMELY well.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Where does the narrative come from that Jarmo is an elite draft talent evaluator? He was with some decent organizations before Columbus but he was not the guy in charge, just part of the evaluation team. He has been in charge of 3 drafts here. Because not that much time has passed, no one has yet to prove they are an elite NHL talent. If Wennberg is not a #1 guy--and apparently he isn't if that is why they are drooling over Brown-than he was not some magical pick. Rychel has done nothing special and will, at most, be a helper guy. Dano was a quick riser and used to get Saad, but is Dano an impact NHL player? He deserves some Kudos for Bjorkstrand but he, also, has yet to actually do it in the NHL. I like Werenski, but there is a big gap between having top defense pair potential and playing at that level. Bottom line, is that I don't believe he has reached the level where we should just defer to his genius and assume the consensus that Puljujarvi is the best guy is wrong.

Agreed. I'm not trying to say Jarmo's reputation is false, because he clearly knows what he's doing, but the notion of him being one of the best drafters in the NHL is too much. People bring up Lake Erie's success when they don't realize alot of the team was Howson's guys, including both goalies. Sure, Jarmo brought in the best player on that team (Bjorkstrand) and top dman (Werenski),but Werenski was an easy pick in his position. We'll see how they do once Howson's guys start graduating (Goalies, Anderson, etc) and his guys fully take over.

 

[JacketsDavid]

We have gotten so much value for the where we have made our picks. Now, some guys still have to prove it, but they are showing that he has drafted EXTREMELY well.

or is it the fact that we've been so historically bad in the draft that Jarmo is just ok but appears to be brilliant.

Again I don't know the answer to that - simply a question?

We usually always pick in the top 8 of the draft so there should be some expectation that we would get better players than most other teams.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

We have gotten so much value for the where we have made our picks. Now, some guys still have to prove it, but they are showing that he has drafted EXTREMELY well.

It isn't really "value" until the performances start resulting in NHL production and wins. Getting a guy projected to go #10 at #15 could mean 2 things 1) you got the 10th best player at #15 or 2) the teams picking from #10-14 were smarter than you were when they passed on him. I agree that the prospect list looks better. But everyone putting together prospect lists thought Filatov was elite before he proved he wasn't.