2016-2017 Kings Roster Talk Part IV

[BigKing]

This is a very important point that gets glossed over here imo.

But it is also the problem. We don't want to be an also-ran, we want to be a contender.

There was a post on here calling Kings fans spoiled. Everyone is thrilled with the Cup wins but said wins raised the bar of expectations.

Is this team a contender going in to next season or a "battling for a WC spot"? Definitely not the former.

It's hard to stay at the top and be considered a legit contender every year, especially if you **** the roster bed year after year after winning the Cup. The issue is in regards to the team being middle-class with imminent prospects of moving into the upper-class or stuck in the middle with a middle-class future full of small highs and low lows, i.e. black hole, 1st round exits and possible moments like beating the Red Wings in 2001 being like winning the lottery.

Do they take the salary job with little prospects of upward mobility or do they take the risks to make that big money? K17 wants to take the risks while most are comfortable with just making the playoffs and hoping it works out. If you fall in the latter camp, then you are okay with the Kings residing in that #10-20 range as far as top teams go because that's what the future looks like right now barring over-performing prospects and some Blake magic.

Nothing wrong with just wanting to ride it out and hope for the best since there are no guarantees that blowing it up would equal success: especially with new management. I totally get wanting to blow it up though. I'd rather go through the season that Colorado had and be sitting on the #1OA (most likely) than be Chicago with a 108 point season followed by an embarrassing playoff and a lower draft pick. Assuming we had a 1st last year, this season would be preferable to last if all I have at the end is one playoff game win and a lower draft pick.

 

[kings11]

Uh, why would he do this after what Kopitar did in his contract negotiation?

because as much as any athletes wants to win they also want and need to get paid what they feel they're worth...

 

[BigKing]

because as much as any athletes wants to win they also want and need to get paid what they feel they're worth...

So why would he think he is worth less than Kopitar and take less?

Drew Doughty will have, at minimum, the same cap hit as Kopitar. I expect it to be $11MM+

These guys aren't going to take massive hits to their income because Gaborik and Brown are overpaid. If I'm Doughty talking to Blake, I say "That's a YP not an MP: Your Problem".

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Ugh, had a longer response post but browser crash. Let's see what I can remember

It's not getting glossed over. If your team isn't a legit contender, or isn't a young up and coming team, what should the smart GM be doing?

Retooling. It's not as binary as "Cup Finalist" or "burn it all down and start over." 25 NHL GMs shouldn't be tanking.

But it is also the problem. We don't want to be an also-ran, we want to be a contender.

There was a post on here calling Kings fans spoiled. Everyone is thrilled with the Cup wins but said wins raised the bar of expectations.

Is this team a contender going in to next season or a "battling for a WC spot"? Definitely not the former.

It's hard to stay at the top and be considered a legit contender every year, especially if you **** the roster bed year after year after winning the Cup. The issue is in regards to the team being middle-class with imminent prospects of moving into the upper-class or stuck in the middle with a middle-class future full of small highs and low lows, i.e. black hole, 1st round exits and possible moments like beating the Red Wings in 2001 being like winning the lottery.

Do they take the salary job with little prospects of upward mobility or do they take the risks to make that big money? K17 wants to take the risks while most are comfortable with just making the playoffs and hoping it works out. If you fall in the latter camp, then you are okay with the Kings residing in that #10-20 range as far as top teams go because that's what the future looks like right now barring over-performing prospects and some Blake magic.

Nothing wrong with just wanting to ride it out and hope for the best since there are no guarantees that blowing it up would equal success: especially with new management. I totally get wanting to blow it up though. I'd rather go through the season that Colorado had and be sitting on the #1OA (most likely) than be Chicago with a 108 point season followed by an embarrassing playoff and a lower draft pick. Assuming we had a 1st last year, this season would be preferable to last if all I have at the end is one playoff game win and a lower draft pick.

Were we a 'true contender' in 2012-2014? I seem to recall us getting laughed off the face of the Earth at times. How about the Sharks last year after everyone left them for dead? The Pens? Things change fast in this league.

I get it re: the boldfaced. It's just different philosophies. I don't think anyone here is happy with blackholing every year into the forseeable future, only that we have all the major pieces in place, and IMO you have to see what you have with a new staff before you send all the parts off on a flaming garbage barge. Because we're likely watching the best d-man in Kings history play out the string, we're seeing already the best goalie in Kings history making his mark, and we have a franchise center committed to the cause as well--no guarantees tanking even comes close to replacing those guys, and for every Connor McDavid, there is a Nail Yakupov, Patrik Stefan, Alexandre Daigle. Personally, I'd rather see our core battle out the string until there's nothing left than tank year after year until a miracle strikes, I'd argue that's mismanagement rather than smart.

 

[KINGS17]

But it is also the problem. We don't want to be an also-ran, we want to be a contender.

There was a post on here calling Kings fans spoiled. Everyone is thrilled with the Cup wins but said wins raised the bar of expectations.

Is this team a contender going in to next season or a "battling for a WC spot"? Definitely not the former.

It's hard to stay at the top and be considered a legit contender every year, especially if you **** the roster bed year after year after winning the Cup. The issue is in regards to the team being middle-class with imminent prospects of moving into the upper-class or stuck in the middle with a middle-class future full of small highs and low lows, i.e. black hole, 1st round exits and possible moments like beating the Red Wings in 2001 being like winning the lottery.

Do they take the salary job with little prospects of upward mobility or do they take the risks to make that big money? K17 wants to take the risks while most are comfortable with just making the playoffs and hoping it works out. If you fall in the latter camp, then you are okay with the Kings residing in that #10-20 range as far as top teams go because that's what the future looks like right now barring over-performing prospects and some Blake magic.

Nothing wrong with just wanting to ride it out and hope for the best since there are no guarantees that blowing it up would equal success: especially with new management. I totally get wanting to blow it up though. I'd rather go through the season that Colorado had and be sitting on the #1OA (most likely) than be Chicago with a 108 point season followed by an embarrassing playoff and a lower draft pick. Assuming we had a 1st last year, this season would be preferable to last if all I have at the end is one playoff game win and a lower draft pick.

It really is a battle between conflicting philosophies.

Just a little background on myself, so people might know where I am coming from. After 13 years at the biggest American commercial aircraft manufacturer I left in 1999 to start my own business.

The day I left after I turned in my badge, I went to my car, looked in the rear view mirror, and said "WTF did I just do?" I never looked back.

There are no guarantees if you blow it up. I guarantee you will see mediocrity if the status quo is maintained. The Kings have 1 playoff win (game, not series) in the last three seasons.

You guys tell me where this is trending.

 

[KINGS17]

because as much as any athletes wants to win they also want and need to get paid what they feel they're worth...

So, Doughty should be happy with, what did you say? $8.5M, and $68M over 8 years.

This after Kopitar took $80M over 8 years.

 

[KINGS17]

Were we a 'true contender' in 2012-2014? I seem to recall us getting laughed off the face of the Earth at times. How about the Sharks last year after everyone left them for dead? The Pens? Things change fast in this league.

I seem to remember plenty of pundits picking the Kings to win the cup in 2013, 2014, and 2015. I don't think any team was laughing at the prospect of facing the Kings in the playoffs, even in 2012.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Retooling. It's not as binary as "Cup Finalist" or "burn it all down and start over." 25 NHL GMs shouldn't be tanking.

More importantly than shouldn't, 25 GM's can't tank at the same time. There are 5 or fewer teams in the no doubt contender category, 5 or fewer teams in the no doubt rebuilding category, and 20 or more teams hoping they get a career year here and there, along with some health on the roster.

Were we a 'true contender' in 2012-2014? I seem to recall us getting laughed off the face of the Earth at times. How about the Sharks last year after everyone left them for dead? The Pens? Things change fast in this league.

Yeah, things are probably a little less definitive than we think. Nobody can know for sure that X, Y, and Z will happen in any given year. That's the only reason we as fans watch. If any of us really knew anything ahead of time, why would we waste what little time we have watching other people that make a lot of money play a game? We don't know what Kopitar will do next year. We don't know what he'll do 4 years from now. He may end up having a great year in 19-20 for all we know. It might be the only good season he has in the next 7 years, but maybe it's good enough to win another Cup. Maybe Quick has one more 2012 type playoff in him in some season coming up?

 

[BigKing]

As an underwriter, I analyze trends all day long. We like to see three years of financials.

I would of given DL any size loan he wanted after 2014 since that three year period was amazing and everything was looking up. Now? I'd be holding bad paper.

Same analogy for going into the 2012 season. I'd give them a loan since the trends were positive and projections were good with the addition of Richards; however, it wouldn't be as large as the 2014 loan and I would need some additional collateral.

Now? I wouldn't give them a dime. They'd be declined and off my desk.

The 2012 team had high hopes going into the season, along with a more exciting prospect pool. Kings had buzz as a contender going into that season.

Of course, anything can happen as you say, RJ. Problem is that the trends are horrible and the company blew through a lot of its assets. Can they get out from under all the debt the former management left behind and turn the company around or would it be best to sell off assets, BK and start a new company?

I have no problem with feeling either way. As a STH, going through 3-4 years (at best) of sucking is a tough pill to swallow without any guarantees. Edmonton is happy now, but 10-11 years of irrelevance at this stage of my life is rough, although I guess it would give me time to start a family if I wanted to do so!

Also, if they were to blow it up and "start over" as much as possible, I'd want Lombardi to be the guy to build it again.

Doesn't really matter though. They aren't blowing it up. AEG will be fine with just making the playoffs even if they put a Winnipeg/Phoenix type stretch of playoff performances out there.

 

[KingsFan7824]

It really is a battle between conflicting philosophies.

Just a little background on myself, so people might know where I am coming from. After 13 years at the biggest American commercial aircraft manufacturer I left in 1999 to start my own business.

The day I left after I turned in my badge, I went to my car, looked in the rear view mirror, and said "WTF did I just do?" I never looked back.

There are no guarantees if you blow it up. I guarantee you will see mediocrity if the status quo is maintained. The Kings have 1 playoff win (game, not series) in the last three seasons.

You guys tell me where this is trending.

The Sharks blew a 3-0 lead, then missed the playoffs, then made a run to the Final. Pittsburgh was supposed to be the next dynasty after 2009. If anyone had said Pittsburgh wouldn't win a Cup after 2009 until 2016, back in June of 2009, nobody would've listened to that person. Everything really is year to year.

Maybe Brodzinski scores 25 goals next year, and throws in 8 more in the playoffs? Nobody can say that will not happen. Could say that scenario is banking on chance and small percentages, but did anyone have Viktor Arvidsson scoring 31 goals this year? I'm going to guess no.

 

[KINGS17]

As an underwriter, I analyze trends all day long. We like to see three years of financials.

I would of given DL any size loan he wanted after 2014 since that three year period was amazing and everything was looking up. Now? I'd be holding bad paper.

Same analogy for going into the 2012 season. I'd give them a loan since the trends were positive and projections were good with the addition of Richards; however, it wouldn't be as large as the 2014 loan and I would need some additional collateral.

Now? I wouldn't give them a dime. They'd be declined and off my desk.

The 2012 team had high hopes going into the season, along with a more exciting prospect pool. Kings had buzz as a contender going into that season.

Of course, anything can happen as you say, RJ. Problem is that the trends are horrible and the company blew through a lot of its assets. Can they get out from under all the debt the former management left behind and turn the company around or would it be best to sell off assets, BK and start a new company?

I have no problem with feeling either way. As a STH, going through 3-4 years (at best) of sucking is a tough pill to swallow without any guarantees. Edmonton is happy now, but 10-11 years of irrelevance at this stage of my life is rough, although I guess it would give me time to start a family if I wanted to do so!

Also, if they were to blow it up and "start over" as much as possible, I'd want Lombardi to be the guy to build it again.

Doesn't really matter though. They aren't blowing it up. AEG will be fine with just making the playoffs even if they put a Winnipeg/Phoenix type stretch of playoff performances out there.

I will always be a Kings fan, but I don't find this approach interesting at all, and likely won't watch as many games. I fear Robitaille and Blake did convince AEG the Kings only need a few tweeks and a change of style and they will be back to contending again.

I never want to see the Kings go back to the days of "Just make the playoffs, and anything can happen." It only works when a team is built for the playoffs as the Kings were in 2012-2014.

This current roster is not built for the playoffs.

 

[KINGS17]

The Sharks blew a 3-0 lead, then missed the playoffs, then made a run to the Final. Pittsburgh was supposed to be the next dynasty after 2009. If anyone had said Pittsburgh wouldn't win a Cup after 2009 until 2016, back in June of 2009, nobody would've listened to that person. Everything really is year to year.

Maybe Brodzinski scores 25 goals next year, and throws in 8 more in the playoffs? Nobody can say that will not happen. Could say that scenario is banking on chance and small percentages, but did anyone have Viktor Arvidsson scoring 31 goals this year? I'm going to guess no.

Sorry, not buying what you are selling. Again, you bring up Pittsburgh, but they have two of the best players in the world on what are now reasonable cap hits. It took a long time for those cap hits to become reasonable.

I won't go into all the reasons why we won't see the kind of increase in the salary cap over the next 4 or 5 years which allowed Pittsburgh to make this transition, but I don't think the Canadian dollar is going to reach par with the U.S. dollar again for quite some time. In fact, it now has returned to a more "normal" state.

The Kings are handcuffed by at least three retirement contracts.

I don't think it's year-to-year at all. Trends matter.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Sorry, not buying what you are selling. Again, you bring up Pittsburgh, but they have two of the best players in the world on what are now reasonable cap hits. It took a long time for those cap hits to become reasonable.

Yeah, but again, in June of 2009, nobody is saying well of course they wouldn't win for 7 years, because the cap hits for Crosby and Malkin are a little too big. No, they had two of the best players in the world in their early to mid 20's, and were always seen as a contender every September. Not only win another Cup, but they didn't win a single game after the 2nd round from 2010 to last year.

I won't go into all the reasons why we won't see the kind of increase in the salary cap over the next 4 or 5 years which allowed Pittsburgh to make this transition, but I don't think the Canadian dollar is going to reach par with the U.S. dollar again for quite some time. In fact, it now has returned to a more "normal" state.

The Kings are handcuffed by at least three retirement contracts.

Was it the cap inching up that allowed the Penguins to get back to the top, or was it getting outstanding production from an undrafted winger, a 3rd round pick from 4 years ago, a 3rd round pick from 7 years ago, and a bust from Edmonton, for about $3.5m in combined cap space?

I don't think it's year-to-year at all. Trends matter.

But the trend was that the Kings don't win the Cup in 2012. 45 years doesn't lie, it's a big sample size. The trend was that they lose in the 1st round in 2014. The trend was that Thornton should've had fewer points last year than in 14-15. He had 20 more points though, and his highest goal total in 5 years.

Trends do matter, but sports are absolutely year to year. Month to month at times. Who had both Pittsburgh and San Jose in the Final last year in December 2015? During the 11-12 season, the year after the Bruins won the Cup, they had a stretch where they went 23-4, and then they lost in Game 7 of the 1st round.

It's unlikely the Kings ever win the Cup again within a reasonable time frame, no matter what they do, no matter who the GM is, who the coach is, who they trade, who they draft, who they sign, or anything. That's just the math. That's the world sports teams exist in. Cleveland won't have a LeBron James again. Chicago hasn't come close to having another Jordan. It's unlikely the Patriots will ever have maybe the best QB in NFL history a second time.

 

[kings11]

So why would he think he is worth less than Kopitar and take less?

Drew Doughty will have, at minimum, the same cap hit as Kopitar. I expect it to be $11MM+

These guys aren't going to take massive hits to their income because Gaborik and Brown are overpaid. If I'm Doughty talking to Blake, I say "That's a YP not an MP: Your Problem".

I think if he truly wants to stay with the Kings while also fielding a competitive team, he'll take $1 mill or so less than his expected salary which is in the $10.5-$11 mill per season range ...
all that it's YP not MP crap doesn't work ... it's either he'll want to stay or he'll ask for a trade there will be no middle ground however I think Blake's personal experience with a similar situation could be beneficial when negotiations start.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Lots of great posts here!

There's several reasons why the Kings are where they are.
The demise from 2014 to now, from a personnel standpoint is pretty compelling.
The 2014 team and 2017 team difference, is all you need to see,
to realize just how MARKEDLY INFERIOR the team truly is.

2014:

forwards:
Justin Williams 3rd leading scorer
Mike Richards 4th leading scorer
Gaborik in top form (led NHL in playoff goals with 14)
Stoll - still decent 3rd line center

defensemen:
Voynov 6th leading scorer on team and great 2nd pairing
Mitchell rock solid
Regehr warrior

These have been replaced with:

forwards:
Dowd
Shore
Andreoff

(not counting Iginla, Setoguchi, Purcell, Brodzinski, Kempe because none of them
played over 20 games)

defensemen:
Forbort
Gravel
McNabb
LaDue (only 22 games)

Observations. Huge drop off, in both forwards and defensemen. Granted, Toffoli and Pearson were just breaking in, in 2014 and are better players now, than in 2014. Also, you cannot 'fault' Forbort, McNabb, Gravel, for not measuring up to Voynov, Mitchell and Regehr; 3 of the 4 are rookies. However, Lombardi FAILED to replace any of those 2014 players, except with Sekera and Lucic, which
ended up being gambles in which he lost as 1 year rentals. (Sekera a 14 game rental)

Also, Kopitar has already regressed some and Gaborik markedly. Oh, he also lost
Jones in that Lucic deal and do not have an NHL backup. Also, not a single top 6 forward developed since Pearson, 3 years ago.

 

[KINGS17]

I think if he truly wants to stay with the Kings while also fielding a competitive team, he'll take $1 mill or so less than his expected salary which is in the $10.5-$11 mill per season range ...
all that it's YP not MP crap doesn't work ... it's either he'll want to stay or he'll ask for a trade there will be no middle ground however I think Blake's personal experience with a similar situation could be beneficial when negotiations start.

So now that Kopi got his money, it's time for the Kings to play hardball with Doughty?

I don't think any player in the NHL is worth a cap hit of $10M. It just isn't conducive to building a winning team, but after witnessing the Kopitar negotiations and Dean saying in the beginning they weren't even in the same ballpark, I think Doughty will want to be the highest paid King.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

So now that Kopi got his money, it's time for the Kings to play hardball with Doughty?

I don't think any player in the NHL is worth a cap hit of $10M. It just isn't conducive to building a winning team, but after witnessing the Kopitar negotiations and Dean saying in the beginning they weren't even in the same ballpark, I think Doughty will want to be the highest paid King.

Makes you appreciate the last negotiation with Toffoli, whom Lombardi said took
a more reasonable number than he probably could have gotten...or some such.
And harken the day when Hasek (when 1 season in Detroit) on the disabled list all
year and didn't feel it was right to take ANY salary. I believe he even requested this?
How do players expect their GM to ice a contender, when they suck 20% of the team salary? How will it make your teammates feel, when they are up for negotiations and they cannot get near their market value, because 3 teammates suck 40% of the team cap?

 

[Bandit]

I accept it. No reason the Kings have to flail around trying to be something they aren't just because a few players are signed to some bad contracts.

Blake can make moves to make the team better in the future.

It's not just "some bad contracts" my man, it's the core of the team. We are committed to winning or losing with Kopitar, Quick and to a lesser extent Brown and Gaborik. As long as those guys are here it's going to be a patch job to try and win with them. You even said it yourself, there's no getting out of these contracts and turning the whole thing around in 3 years. You either try to win with what we have, or you go full scorched earth.

 

[kings11]

So now that Kopi got his money, it's time for the Kings to play hardball with Doughty?

I don't think any player in the NHL is worth a cap hit of $10M. It just isn't conducive to building a winning team, but after witnessing the Kopitar negotiations and Dean saying in the beginning they weren't even in the same ballpark, I think Doughty will want to be the highest paid King.

And he rightfully deserves to be not only the highest paid King but Dman in the NHL!..
I never said play hardball but rather used common sense to in concluding that if Doughty wants to stay and have the Kings field a competitive team around him he'll need to take a slight pay cut similar to what Stamkos did because as you said no player is really worth $10+ mill per.... unfortunately Chicago did their deeds and the league had to adjust.

 

[Bandit]

Oh, okay, they just need a legit #1 d. How many teams say that and do it? Toronto certainly has the assets, but they need to pull the trigger on something to make it happen, and my point was more about roster management and salaries than flat out talent; they have good players, but my point is they're going to have to get PAID or shipped out. They have holes, just like any other franchise, and #1 d is a significant one. It's gonna start getting expensive--Reilly makes 5 million a year thru 2020, he COULD be a good #2, but he's in over his head as a #1. Gardener is awesome, no issue with him, but he makes more than Jake Muzzin. Zaitsev emerged, but he's an RFA--what pay raise does he get, and can he carry it going forward? That's sort of a huge question mark. Marchenko, Marincin, et. al. are nice little pieces, but they aren't difference makers. Hence, a top 3 of Reilly, Zaitsev, Gardener? Sorry, that's a relatively expensive but inadequate top 3, and a #1 is a very significant piece missing in terms of what it will cost them, so my point that these teams that folks are envying still have holes is valid.

Also, sorry, we've seen enough of Andersen choking on soft goals, I'm never going to be sold on him. He's a good volume guy, nothing more. Adequate, but will need a superb d-core, because he's not going to be the guy to get a team over the hump.

I never said they weren't a good team in a good position. Only that they have holes just like anyone else and they will be costly to fill, and it's only a matter of time before the cap becomes a bigger concern.

I appreciate deeshamrock's posts, but I had the same thought. Oh, is THAT all? Like it's such an easy problem to fix, becasue everyone is dying to trade a legitimate young #1 defenseman...

 

[KINGS17]

It's not just "some bad contracts" my man, it's the core of the team. We are committed to winning or losing with Kopitar, Quick and to a lesser extent Brown and Gaborik. As long as those guys are here it's going to be a patch job to try and win with them. You even said it yourself, there's no getting out of these contracts and turning the whole thing around in 3 years. You either try to win with what we have, or you go full scorched earth.

I'm okay with scorched earth. There is a joker in the deck. The next CBA may be a game changer for the Kings, and they will probably need it.

 

[KINGS17]

I appreciate deeshamrock's posts, but I had the same thought. Oh, is THAT all? Like it's such an easy problem to fix, becasue everyone is dying to trade a legitimate young #1 defenseman...

You know thinking about this if Chicago had another early exit next season, would they be willing to deal Keith to get younger after next season?

I think with the depth of the assets Toronto has up front a legit 1D is not out of their reach.

Also, I don't think any of us should count on Doughty wanting to stay in LA after his deal expires.

 

[KINGS17]

And he rightfully deserves to be not only the highest paid King but Dman in the NHL!..
I never said play hardball but rather used common sense to in concluding that if Doughty wants to stay and have the Kings field a competitive team around him he'll need to take a slight pay cut similar to what Stamkos did because as you said no player is really worth $10+ mill per.... unfortunately Chicago did their deeds and the league had to adjust.

Where was Kopitar's common sense? Does he not want the Kings to field a competitive team?

Unfortunately, Kopitar has already done the deed.

 

[damacles1156]

Doughty will ask to be the highest paid player in the ENTIRE NHL, and he will get it from someone.

Probably the Kings, and they will have to gut the roster to do it.

 

[KINGS17]

Doughty will ask to be the highest paid player in the ENTIRE NHL, and he will get it from someone.

Probably the Kings, and they will have to gut the roster to do it.

Bad idea.

I know you're not in favor of this happening. It's exactly what concerns me about a Robitaille regime.

Dean had some leverage and played a little hardball with Doughty last time, and both sides gave a little.