2015 NHL Entry Draft

[aragorn]

The way you view players under 6' is ridiculous. Some of the best players in the NHL are around 5'10 and 5'11 and they aren't soft. Filling your team with tall heavy players isnt the answer, you need a good mix of size and skill. We have lots of young players with size we don't need to try to be the biggest team in the league

We have plenty of players with skill & don't need any more soft small players who can't defend themselves & get knocked off the puck easily or are not very good defensively. Have you not watched any playoff games in the last few yrs, it's rough, tough hockey & some of these small guys can't take it. I'm not against guys under 6' who can play, Hoffman is playing well, MacArthur & Turris are good. But the majority of guys in our organization under 6' are not Crosby or Martin St Louis. Just because they are good in junior or the AHL doesn't mean they will be NHL players. Corey Locke should have taught us that yet many on here still want this guy in the organization & feel he didn't get a fair opportunity or Cory Connacher. They don't get that some players just don't transition well into the NHL for various reasons like skating issues or size. Big players without skill don't transition well either but at the least some of them not all provide 4th line roles although that is changing. Small players either make it as scorers or they are not in the league, not too many small players are playing the kind of role Pageau is playing for this team. Some are now saying Ottawa is a soft team without Neil & Smith in the lineup & teams will test that.

If Pageau was scoring more there wouldn't be an argument but he's not & the only reason he is here is because we don't have enough depth at centre. The centre position needs to be upgraded in Ottawa, we are not getting enough ES pts from every centre except Turris. Pageau is playing well & is decent on faceoffs but we need goal scoring & this position needs to be upgraded with players who can score. Zibanejad was suppose to provide that but he is still developing it seems & has not broken out yet. I thought Legwand would score more but he isn't scoring ES consistently either & needs to be replaced. I would send Lazar to Bingo for next season to learn to score more consistently in the pros. IMO Konecny will be a good AHL player as he is a good junior player but I don't see NHL player there, we'll see. I just think Crouse is the most likely to be a good NHL player around where Ottawa will be drafting more so than Konecny & a few others who I think are too risky to take a chance on with their 1st rd pick.

 

[Six Assets]

Sens had no problem picking a 5'10 150 pound Karlsson.

If Konecny is the BPA, then we should not hesitate to select him.

Size isn't that important anymore.

 

[SaltyPete]

For those who overvalue size in the draft:

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/8/does-size-matter-in-the-nhl-draft

http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/11/5/can-size-get-you-an-nhler

 

[Vaclav Varada]

I wish there was a way to just block Aragorn's posts about size but leave everything else he posts visible.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

We have plenty of players with skill & don't need any more soft small players who can't defend themselves & get knocked off the puck easily or are not very good defensively. Have you not watched any playoff games in the last few yrs, it's rough, tough hockey & some of these small guys can't take it. I'm not against guys under 6' who can play, Hoffman is playing well, MacArthur & Turris are good. But the majority of guys in our organization under 6' are not Crosby or Martin St Louis. Just because they are good in junior or the AHL doesn't mean they will be NHL players. Corey Locke should have taught us that yet many on here still want this guy in the organization & feel he didn't get a fair opportunity or Cory Connacher. They don't get that some players just don't transition well into the NHL for various reasons like skating issues or size. Big players without skill don't transition well either but at the least some of them not all provide 4th line roles although that is changing. Small players either make it as scorers or they are not in the league, not too many small players are playing the kind of role Pageau is playing for this team. Some are now saying Ottawa is a soft team without Neil & Smith in the lineup & teams will test that.

If Pageau was scoring more there wouldn't be an argument but he's not & the only reason he is here is because we don't have enough depth at centre. The centre position needs to be upgraded in Ottawa, we are not getting enough ES pts from every centre except Turris. Pageau is playing well & is decent on faceoffs but we need goal scoring & this position needs to be upgraded with players who can score. Zibanejad was suppose to provide that but he is still developing it seems & has not broken out yet. I thought Legwand would score more but he isn't scoring ES consistently either & needs to be replaced. I would send Lazar to Bingo for next season to learn to score more consistently in the pros. IMO Konecny will be a good AHL player as he is a good junior player but I don't see NHL player there, we'll see. I just think Crouse is the most likely to be a good NHL player around where Ottawa will be drafting more so than Konecny & a few others who I think are too risky to take a chance on with their 1st rd pick.

No, we don't have anywhere near enough skill on this roster.

And secondly, we have a ton of big guys who are soft and slow on this team. Size does not equal toughness.

 

[Vaclav Varada]

We have plenty of players with skill & don't need any more soft small players who can't defend themselves & get knocked off the puck easily or are not very good defensively. Have you not watched any playoff games in the last few yrs, it's rough, tough hockey & some of these small guys can't take it. I'm not against guys under 6' who can play, Hoffman is playing well, MacArthur & Turris are good. But the majority of guys in our organization under 6' are not Crosby or Martin St Louis. Just because they are good in junior or the AHL doesn't mean they will be NHL players. Corey Locke should have taught us that yet many on here still want this guy in the organization & feel he didn't get a fair opportunity or Cory Connacher. They don't get that some players just don't transition well into the NHL for various reasons like skating issues or size. Big players without skill don't transition well either but at the least some of them not all provide 4th line roles although that is changing. Small players either make it as scorers or they are not in the league, not too many small players are playing the kind of role Pageau is playing for this team. Some are now saying Ottawa is a soft team without Neil & Smith in the lineup & teams will test that.

If Pageau was scoring more there wouldn't be an argument but he's not & the only reason he is here is because we don't have enough depth at centre. The centre position needs to be upgraded in Ottawa, we are not getting enough ES pts from every centre except Turris. Pageau is playing well & is decent on faceoffs but we need goal scoring & this position needs to be upgraded with players who can score. Zibanejad was suppose to provide that but he is still developing it seems & has not broken out yet. I thought Legwand would score more but he isn't scoring ES consistently either & needs to be replaced. I would send Lazar to Bingo for next season to learn to score more consistently in the pros. IMO Konecny will be a good AHL player as he is a good junior player but I don't see NHL player there, we'll see. I just think Crouse is the most likely to be a good NHL player around where Ottawa will be drafting more so than Konecny & a few others who I think are too risky to take a chance on with their 1st rd pick.

We are probably one of the least skilled teams with one of the least skilled prospect cupboards.

 

[Emerica]

The way you view players under 6' is ridiculous. Some of the best players in the NHL are around 5'10 and 5'11 and they aren't soft. Filling your team with tall heavy players isnt the answer, you need a good mix of size and skill. We have lots of young players with size we don't need to try to be the biggest team in the league

Trying to explain that to aragorn is like beating your head against a brick wall over and over again.

 

[thinkwild]

A bunch of us nerds o na hockey forum trying to convince ourselves that size doesnt matter eh. Go figure. I've been hearing that a long time. Lets see how the playoffs go first.

But for sure there is a shift in the game. Gratts just got waived.Johnny hockey is thriving. Even if fighting is disappearing, i think size will always be a sought after commodity by most GMs. Unless, you know like Karlsson, the skill is overwhelming. Always need those.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

Count me as one of those believing we need a serious injection of high end skill, more than size. Especially when you are staring at a top 10 pick.

Drafting guys like Tom Wilson, Tyler Biggs, Zach Kassian and Kyle Beach in the 1st round is not how you build a Cup contender. Even big bodied semi-skilled guys like Brendan Gaunce or Mark McNeil are not the way to go. Those types are important, but you can generally get them in the later rounds if your scouts are decent. And you can always acquire them as time goes on for cheaper than it is to draft them. It certainly wouldn't cost a 1st rounder to acquire any of the above guys, and you wouldn't have to spend the time developing them.

Outside of Ryan, we probably don't have one forward who has a 1st line skillset, either on the team, or in the minors. Turris and MacArthur are realistically 2nd line forwards, when it comes to lining up against Cup contenders. Sure, we have a load of potential 2nd / 3rd line hybrid guys, but few teams win with a line-up that slim on 1st line talent. For example, if guys like Fisher and Vermette are on your 2nd line, you are probably not a Cup contender. If they are third liners, you probably are a cup contender. Same will likely be true of at least three of Zbad, Lazar, Stone, and Hoffman. You would typically need a few hall of famers on the back end or in net to do make a group of character 2nd liners a Cup contender. LA has done it, and to a lesser degree Boston, but they still have more front end skill than the Sens do, and more depth at forward and D too (and as good or even arguably better goaltending).

So I'm all for taking the most skilled forward on the board (or skilled defender), regardless of size. We can surround the elite talents with some size and 2nd / 3rd line skilled players to grind through a playoff series. But high end skill are absolute table stakes when it comes to Stanley Cup champs.

That said, Konecny is simply not showing how his skills are going to be applied at a higher level. Small players who average 1 ppg in the OHL in their draft year, rarely get picked in the 1st round, let alone top 15. Konecny has the benefit of having a terrific year last year with well over a ppg, so he will get some consideration, but he really needs to pick it up. He certainly passes the eye test for high end skill, but in the end, you need to bet on production, as much as anything, with smaller forwards.

Strome or Marner would be a home run, but I'm all for landing Provorov, Werensky, or perhaps even Kylington, if our Swedish scouts love him enough. Adding one of those guys to Karlsson and Ceci would create some tremendous puck possession talent. At forward, I'd probably prefer Merkley or Connor to Konecny or Barzal at this point, but definitely wouldn't be that upset with the latter two. Not big on Crouse or Zacha at this point, just in terms of upside.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

I've seen kocency predicted to go anywhere from 10-35 in this draft. Seems a lot of people are divided on him.

Imo We can grab some decent forwards with the seconds we wont find a top pairing potential dman like Hanifin, Provorov, maybe Werenski and kylington outside the first round. Unless were picking really high we should draft a forward otherwise i say go with all these smooth skating two way dmen.

 

[Xspyrit]

We are probably one of the least skilled teams with one of the least skilled prospect cupboards.

How do you explain then that the Sens are not dead last and only a -2 on the season?

How do we quantify that? Goals scored per game? Sens are 19th actually, 0.13 away from the 15th place, which is ONE goal every 8 games. Not bad for a team with the less experience in the league and the lowest payroll...

I find guys like Karlsson, Hoffman, Zibanejad, Ryan, Turris, MacArthur, Stone, Ceci, pretty skilled but maybe that's just me. Wiercioch has great skill too but he's not able to showcase it a lot because of his lack of strength and speed... Lazar is still very raw, and prospects like Prince, Puempel, Paul, Lindberg, Perron, Guptill, Dzingel and Wikstrand have very good skillsets. Maybe some others. Or do we base everything on points per game?

What the organization now lacks is a first line center, they have several actual/potential 2nd line centers (unless Zbad breaks out) but they lack that first line center with Spezza gone. Like they say, "care for what you wish for" and that's what this fanbase wanted. It kinda blew up in its face

Hoffman-Johansen-Ryan
MacArthur-Turris-Stone
Puempel-Zibanejad-Lazar
Prince-Paul-Chiasson
Pageau

Methot-Karlsson
Cowen-Ceci
Wikstrand-Wideman
Wiercioch

Anderson
Lehner

Would it be one of the least skilled line-ups? All those players are in the organization except Johansen... That makes ALL the difference believe me.


Turris, Hoffman, Zibanejad, Karlsson and Ryan can score some very nice goals. MacArthur's pass last year was pretty incredible. I have tons of replays in my mind where those guys make very skilled plays.

Anyway, if what you say is true, I expect to see this team be a bottom feeder for the next 5 years, starting this year. Time will tell. If that happens, I fear for the future of the franchise in Ottawa...

However, the Sens could fix a big hole with the upcoming draft, pick up the best center available and see what happens. Unless a D-man or Winger is by far the best player of course but doubt it happens from where the Sens will draft (6th to 10th IMO)

 

[HispanicAtTheDisco]

If we trade our two seconds for something like the 22nd, would we rather take a high end first line forward and another potential #3/4 dman or a potential #1/2 dman and a potential 2nd line two way forward?

 

[Proust*]

If we trade our two seconds for something like the 22nd, would we rather take a high end first line forward and another potential #3/4 dman or a potential #1/2 dman and a potential 2nd line two way forward?

Most skilled player left at that pick. We are in dire need of skill, as per the Dr's post above.

Curtis Lazar can supply all intangibles for the next 15 years.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

How do you explain then that the Sens are not dead last and only a -2 on the season?

How do we quantify that? Goals scored per game? Sens are 19th actually, 0.13 away from the 15th place, which is ONE goal every 8 games. Not bad for a team with the less experience in the league and the lowest payroll...

I find guys like Karlsson, Hoffman, Zibanejad, Ryan, Turris, MacArthur, Stone, Ceci, pretty skilled but maybe that's just me. Wiercioch has great skill too but he's not able to showcase it a lot because of his lack of strength and speed... Lazar is still very raw, and prospects like Prince, Puempel, Paul, Lindberg, Perron, Guptill, Dzingel and Wikstrand have very good skillsets. Maybe some others. Or do we base everything on points per game?

What the organization now lacks is a first line center, they have several actual/potential 2nd line centers (unless Zbad breaks out) but they lack that first line center with Spezza gone. Like they say, "care for what you wish for" and that's what this fanbase wanted. It kinda blew up in its face

The problem is the Sens have decent depth of 2nd tier skill. Having guys like Michalek, Chiasson and Legwand in the bottom 6 means the team actually has three lines of decent skill, which not all teams have. But decent skill is not high end skill.

And there's the rub. Despite rolling three decent skill lines, we are bottom half scoring team, and that's with one of the better offensive d-men in the world trying to do too much to generate chances.

And the problem is our top line and top PP is well below average, and I don't see that changing. There are a few guys on the team that can be complimentary top line players one day, but won't anchor a top line

But it sounds like you might be actually saying the same thing. I agree re the #1 center requirement, (although I didn't see Spezza as the answer - maybe 5 years ago he would have been). In the end, it will always be easier to neutralize a team's top forward if they are a winger, as team's see with Ovechkin, Kessel and many others. Center's go everywhere on the ice, so it is much more difficult to scheme against them. So relying on Ryan to anchor a top line is folly when it comes to the playoffs. Even if he turns into a 40 goal guy in the next year or two, if we don't have another top end center at least as good as Turris, we have no chance of going deep in the post-season.

So going back to the draft, when you get a top 10 pick, I'm all for swinging for the fences on a skilled potential 1st line forward, versus a safer big body that likely tops out as a 2nd liner, and a good chance they'll be a third liner.

 

[Vaclav Varada]

...

Obviously there was some hyperbole in what i said. I just mainly mean we severely lack top end skill like Dr.Sense said. He have an abundance of guys who could play bottom 6 and a few who have 2nd line potential but we really lack potential star power in the prospects ranks. Anything can happen and who knows, maybe a Dzingel comes out of no where next season and looks like he could be a star, but it isn't likely. We haven't swung for the fences on a 1st rounder since Karlsson. Maybe Puempel too, but I never considered him to have that certain...je ne sais quoi.

We need to go for a homer in the 1st rounder.

The problem is the Sens have decent depth of 2nd tier skill. Having guys like Michalek, Chiasson and Legwand in the bottom 6 means the team actually has three lines of decent skill, which not all teams have. But decent skill is not high end skill.

Exactly. Your post was bang on and way more coherent then anything I would write.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I haven't been paying attention to prospects for a good 5 or 6 years now other than the big names

Are there any current top line centres that weren't super highly touted as prospects?

 

[Vaclav Varada]

I haven't been paying attention to prospects for a good 5 or 6 years now other than the big names

Are there any current top line centres that weren't super highly touted as prospects?

Guys like Tyler Johnson (not a top centre but close), David Krejci, Tyler Bozak, Ryan O'Reilly (more like a good 2nd) pop to my mind. But I wouldn't call any of them top line centres. Johnson has a chance though.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

You wouldn't call Krejci a top line centre?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Guys like Tyler Johnson (not a top centre but close), David Krejci, Tyler Bozak, Ryan O'Reilly (more like a good 2nd) pop to my mind. But I wouldn't call any of them top line centres. Johnson has a chance though.

I think Turris is as good if not better than most of these guys

 

[Vaclav Varada]

You wouldn't call Krejci a top line centre?

Not personally. He and Bergeron are a fantastic 2a/2b though that makes them not necessarily need that 'top line centre'

 

[Vaclav Varada]

I think Turris is as good if not better than most of these guys

Bozak possibly but I disagree with the others very much.

 

[Proust*]

I haven't been paying attention to prospects for a good 5 or 6 years now other than the big names

Are there any current top line centres that weren't super highly touted as prospects?

Not really...

Tyler Johnson, but he could just be having a good year.

Jiri Hudler?

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

Not personally. He and Bergeron are a fantastic 2a/2b though that makes them not necessarily need that 'top line centre'

Yeah, Boston is really one of those rare examples where they have two excellent centers, but neither is probably considered top tier #1 center (i.e. top 10-15 in the league). But Bergeron and Krejci both are probably in the 15-25 range if you ranked them league wide, and then you combine the fact their #3 and #4 centers were Tyler Seguin and Chris Kelly, not to mention the tremendous depth on wing and on D with a Norris trophy d-man in Chara, and arguably the best goalie in the world at the time (Thomas), and you understand what it takes to build around two very good #2 centers to win.

It is similar to the old New Jersey model, when they won the Cup with a bunch of really good, but not great centers. They rolled with Gomez in his prime, Nieuwendyk, Madden and Brylin as their 4 centers, which was really good, but not great. Of course, they had Stevens and Neidermeyer on D and Brodeur in goal, so that makes up for the fact they didn't have an elite center.

Otherwise, the formula at center is pretty consistent. Crosby/ Malkin, Zett / Dats, Toews / Kane (plays like a center). LA is a bit of a hybrid, with one elite center, and then several very good centers, but it's a helluva quartet with Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Stoll etc.

Even some of the one off Cup teams were powerful 1-2 punches, be it Lecavalier / Richards in their primes, or Eric Staal / Doug Weight.

And looking back, the formula has always looked like that with the likes of Forsberg/Sakic, Yzerman/Fedorov, Lemieux / Francis, Gretzky / Messier etc.

When you look at it in that light, you realize how daunting a task it is to build a powerful 1-2 punch up the middle of the quality required to win a Cup.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

I haven't been paying attention to prospects for a good 5 or 6 years now other than the big names

Are there any current top line centres that weren't super highly touted as prospects?

It's actually one the reasons you really need to swing for a top line center in the lottery, because they are really hard to find even later in the first round.

Notwithstanding Tyler Johnson, who it remains to be seen whether he truly is an elite #1 center, there are very few examples of top centers not drafted within the top 10 overall.

Amongst the top 50 NHL scorers, there are only five centers under 30 years of age, not drafted in the top 10 and two of those (Filip Forsberg and Brian Little) were drafted 11th and 12th overall. Besides Johnson, the other two are Claude Giroux who was drafted 22nd overall, and Bozak (college FA). And really, Bozak and Little are 2nd liners when it comes down to it (or well below average 1st liners, depending on your take).

So other than Giroux at 22nd, there have been very few opportunities to grab a top line center outside the top 10 over the last 10+ drafts. Pretty crazy.

So if you want an elite center, best off to go for the most skilled one you can get when you have a top 10 pick, basically.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Yeah, Boston is really one of those rare examples where they have two excellent centers, but neither is probably considered top tier #1 center (i.e. top 10-15 in the league). But Bergeron and Krejci both are probably in the 15-25 range if you ranked them league wide, and then you combine the fact their #3 and #4 centers were Tyler Seguin and Chris Kelly, not to mention the tremendous depth on wing and on D with a Norris trophy d-man in Chara, and arguably the best goalie in the world at the time (Thomas), and you understand what it takes to build around two very good #2 centers to win.

It is similar to the old New Jersey model, when they won the Cup with a bunch of really good, but not great centers. They rolled with Gomez in his prime, Nieuwendyk, Madden and Brylin as their 4 centers, which was really good, but not great. Of course, they had Stevens and Neidermeyer on D and Brodeur in goal, so that makes up for the fact they didn't have an elite center.

Otherwise, the formula at center is pretty consistent. Crosby/ Malkin, Zett / Dats, Toews / Kane (plays like a center). LA is a bit of a hybrid, with one elite center, and then several very good centers, but it's a helluva quartet with Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Stoll etc.

Even some of the one off Cup teams were powerful 1-2 punches, be it Lecavalier / Richards in their primes, or Eric Staal / Doug Weight.

And looking back, the formula has always looked like that with the likes of Forsberg/Sakic, Yzerman/Fedorov, Lemieux / Francis, Gretzky / Messier etc.

When you look at it in that light, you realize how daunting a task it is to build a powerful 1-2 punch up the middle of the quality required to win a Cup.

That daunting task mirrors the same daunting task of winning the Stanley cup.
Although I think kopitar/carter is a great 1-2 bunch. Carter is very good and surprisingly underrated
....... Dzingel/Lazar. That just sounds too good to not be championship material