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2015-2016 Roster Talk: Kings Have no Elite Players Edition

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Primakov! said:
So you needed to crunch numbers and produce two data charts to reach the conclusion that a sample size of 9 games is too small and thus too soon to say anything definitive about the acquired players?

I'm thinking maybe there was a shorter path from Point A to Point B you could have taken there. :)
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Lol!

I liked the visual though. But it is no secret that Vinny is an advanced-stats drain...even in his greatest years he was an opportunistic player, not a possession-system player, which is what made his acquisition from THAT standpoint bizarre, he's almost as bad as Stoll in that regard.

BUT--I watched that closely to see what was going on and he gave up shots against but took up so much space defensively that it wasn't like he was giving up deadly opportunities, and his best play came with Mersch--yet those two were awful at CF% together. Yet they make a great 4th line as they can be good defensively but big and aggressive defensively--yet you have to respect them offensively, which many 4th lines don't get.
 
i honestly don't care, i'll take this perhaps unsustainable production over possession stats in what will be ultimately a small sample size (half season and playoffs)

besides, it's not like the Kings can't carry poor possession guys (see also: Stoll, Richards, AA, Nolan) on the bot 6
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
Lol!

I liked the visual though. But it is no secret that Vinny is an advanced-stats drain...even in his greatest years he was an opportunistic player, not a possession-system player, which is what made his acquisition from THAT standpoint bizarre, he's almost as bad as Stoll in that regard.

BUT--I watched that closely to see what was going on and he gave up shots against but took up so much space defensively that it wasn't like he was giving up deadly opportunities, and his best play came with Mersch--yet those two were awful at CF% together. Yet they make a great 4th line as they can be good defensively but big and aggressive defensively--yet you have to respect them offensively, which many 4th lines don't get.
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brad, how would you compare brown and lecavalier from stats point of view, what do they bring to the stats and what do they really bring to the scoreboard? brown: almost perfect corsi related stats, but zero production. lecavalier: the opposite.
 
gnarls barkley said:
i honestly don't care, i'll take this perhaps unsustainable production over possession stats in what will be ultimately a small sample size (half season and playoffs)

besides, it's not like the Kings can't carry poor possession guys (see also: Stoll, Richards, AA, Nolan) on the bot 6
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Right. I don't care about 'unsustainable production' because it's just a bonus we have never received in the bottom six's case. Especially in a 60-gameish sample size. I see acquiring Vinny similar to past acquisitions where we get a guy and say "look--just do this." With Carter and Gaborik, it was "We have all the other ingredients, just go shoot." It's similar to Vinny in that in all cases, every one of these guys was average in CF% (Carter) or worse (GAborik, VL) but we have the possession wingers and support surrounding them in such a way that we can 'trade' a percentage or two of CF% for some more scoring punch. In other words, I'd rather be 56% CF% with 2% more scoring or whatever than just 58% (or like the no-offense but all-possession Lewis-Shore-Brown line that was something insane like 70% CF with ZERO goals for or against).

mrkolice said:
brad, how would you compare brown and lecavalier from stats point of view, what do they bring to the stats and what do they really bring to the scoreboard? brown: almost perfect corsi related stats, but zero production. lecavalier: the opposite.
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I think you nailed it :laugh:

Vinny is a specialist though, he's getting faceoffs, defensive assignments (for the most part), and PP time and limited PK time (IIRC). Brown is an all-situations bigger minutes guy with a motor to just eat minutes offensively though he should be scoring more. I think we have a ton of guys like Brown so that we can afford to have a guy like Vinny.

The thing that remains to be seen is how Vinny continues to acclimate. It's almost certain his scoring will slow down--I doubt he'll be scoring at a 40 goal pace forever and he's not around enough offense for assists.
 
VL is just about the polar opposite of Shore right now

i wouldn't be mad if Sutter platoons them going forward tbh, but my gut says Shore will ride the bench a lot more until the puck luck dries up, and then VL will get a little break until he "finds his groove" again
 
also worth noting that Brown's shooting % is a paltry 3.8 %. I keep waiting for it to rebound to his average but the season is half way over :(
 
theMajor said:
also worth noting that Brown's shooting % is a paltry 3.8 %. I keep waiting for it to rebound to his average but the season is half way over :(
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It should and has come up. It was in the 2% range early on so it's trending up. But he is passing the eye test. And as long as he keeps playing hard the shots should start to go in. Key word is should. There are times that the numbers just never catch up.
 
theMajor said:
also worth noting that Brown's shooting % is a paltry 3.8 %. I keep waiting for it to rebound to his average but the season is half way over :(
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I bet if you analzyed his shot chart, it would show that a good majority of his shots are long distance, harmless shots along the perimeter, hence his crappy and declining shooting percentage over the past three seasons.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
I bet if you analzyed his shot chart, it would show that a good majority of his shots are long distance, harmless shots along the perimeter, hence his crappy and declining shooting percentage over the past three seasons.
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I looked at that a while ago. His shot distance has grown year over year and is now like 8 feet farther than his heyday. Numbers not exactly, but point being youre right.

Doesn't explain the complete disappearance of his shooting % though, but it does explain a drop.

Also, our PDO is in the tank this whole month, so I expect our results to start trending up again after the break.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
I looked at that a while ago. His shot distance has grown year over year and is now like 8 feet farther than his heyday. Numbers not exactly, but point being youre right.

Doesn't explain the complete disappearance of his shooting % though, but it does explain a drop.

Also, our PDO is in the tank this whole month, so I expect our results to start trending up again after the break.
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how do we explain his lack of hitting?
 
YP44 said:
how do we explain his lack of hitting?
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I don't know that there's an explanation, but I HAVE noticed him doing a lot of flybys instead of finishing his checks--but I've noticed that for the entire team outside of like Schenn and McNabb and Vinny. Would be easy to check by comparing other players' stats to themselves but I can't right now.

Instead of crushing people/finishing checks on the forecheck, I've noticed skaters keep moving and that helps with the pace/backcheck; you'll notice we do that against teams that try to use the stretch pass so that we don't get forwards finishing checks trapped in deep, or in the case that we do get the puck back, trapped offsides; most nights, we'll only start finishing checks when it's apparent we'll keep possession in the zone, otherwise everyone on the forecheck keeps their speed up for the most part.

In fact, even if others hitting stats don't go down year over year, it would actually point to those players doing well sealing plays in the offensive end, where Brown is not particularly effective at that without his hitting.

Just a theory but one I've been watching closely against the speedier teams.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
I bet if you analzyed his shot chart, it would show that a good majority of his shots are long distance, harmless shots along the perimeter, hence his crappy and declining shooting percentage over the past three seasons.
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Here is that chart. Area where it is most red is the net. i wish I knew how to post a better chart.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
I bet if you analzyed his shot chart, it would show that a good majority of his shots are long distance, harmless shots along the perimeter, hence his crappy and declining shooting percentage over the past three seasons.
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wouldnt be surprised at all. he's never been a sniper, he scores the bulk of his goals from driving the net and banging in rebounds/clearing up junk in the crease. the last goal he scored was right in front of the crease
 
In Lecavalier's 10 games as a King so far:

Kopitar - 3G, 9A, 12Pts
Muzzin - 1G, 7A, 8Pts
Carter - 2G, 5A, 7Pts
Lecavalier - 4G, 2A, 6Pts
Toffoli - 3G, 3A, 6Pts
Lucic - 1G, 5A, 6Pts
Doughty - 3G, 1A, 4Pts
King - 2G, 1A, 3Pts
Gaborik - 1G, 1A, 2Pts
Brown - 1G, 1A, 2Pts
Martinez - 1G, 1A, 2Pts
Lewis - 1G, 1A, 2Pts
Pearson - 0G, 2A, 2Pts
Shore - 1G, 0A, 1Pt
Ehrhoff - 0G, 1A, 1Pt
McNabb - 0G, 1A, 1Pt
McBain - 0G, 1A, 1Pt
Schenn - 0G, 1A, 1Pt
Nolan - 0G, 1A, 1Pt
Mersch - 0G, 1A, 1Pt

Is it good or bad that Lecavalier leads the team in goals in the last 10 games? They only have 24 as a team, so without him it's 20, and you can't even really count Shore's. 1 of King's was into an empty net. Gaborik's was 3 on 3, which was only possible because of Lecavalier.
 
Worried about Carter, hopefully the break can rejuvenate him a bit. The whole team really needs it.
 
YP44 said:
he sure has not been the same since coming back from injury. He is not being used the same either. I think he is still injured.
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Totally agree. Something arm/shoulder related. Can't shoot, can't do much on the boards, you can see him cringe on the wall every time, and limited faceoffs. not sure what that could be...wrist? forearm? shoulder? Whatever it is, he's weak and it shows, and he looks uber-frustrated. And it's not getting better, which is what worries me.

Ollie Weeks said:
Clifford finally gets the AHL time he needed 5 or 6 years ago.
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I laughed a little but I agree. Hope he gets up to speed! Get well soon Cliffy!
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
Totally agree. Something arm/shoulder related. Can't shoot, can't do much on the boards, you can see him cringe on the wall every time, and limited faceoffs. not sure what that could be...wrist? forearm? shoulder? Whatever it is, he's weak and it shows, and he looks uber-frustrated. And it's not getting better, which is what worries me.



I laughed a little but I agree. Hope he gets up to speed! Get well soon Cliffy!
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If it is shoulder I almost wonder if it is something he will battle all season and then have surgery in the offseason. Wouldn't be uncommon if the timeline to heal is longer than this season.
 
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