2015-2016 Roster Talk: East Coast Thinks We Suck Edition(MOD WARNING) post# 107

[Raccoon Jesus]

Cannot view in this region, boooo

 

[KINGS17]

So you're conceding that the Towes/Kane contracts weren't mistakes because the Hawks can still field a competitive team with them this year?

Where does that leave your argument for the Kopitar contract?

Who would you replace Kopitar with now that RyJo has been traded?

You must have missed the part where I asked in another thread if people think that Kane will continue to score at a 1.5 PPG clip for the rest of that contract.

I don't want Kopitar traded. What I want is for him to sign a reasonable deal based on the projections for the salary cap for the next few years. What I did say was that Kopitar at an AAV of $10M severely limits Dean's ability to field a roster that can compete for a Stanley Cup.

In effect trading Kopitar, which I don't think Dean will do now, will close the current window. I also think signing him to a contract with a $10M AAV has roughly the same effect. IF Dean had to trade Kopitar, I threw some trade proposals out there that might work for the Kings and allow them to build around Doughty, Quick, Carter, Toffoli, and Muzzin.

At this point, with the salary cap for next year and for the next several years in question (it's okay, I know you don't understand why), I think Dean will continue to wait and make his final offer to Kopitar when he feels that his cap experts have a handle on what the salary cap will be for the next few years. That may not happen until after the season is over.

 

[KINGS17]

Cannot view in this region, boooo

Yeah, but you were able to see the commercial.

 

[kingskring]

David Pagnotta ‏@TheFourthPeriod 3s3 seconds ago
I have been led to believe from multiple ppl close to Kings that Kopitar negotiations aren't THAT far off, but neither side budging on $$$

 

[fsanford]

If I gave a **** I could spend 1 hour and find some pretty good numbers. I don't care. Further more the league revenue is based on more the Oil and the Canadian dollars... I would be shocked if the forecast the NHL put out is in the range of 3-4M or more off. Also you really have no idea what's going on, which has been clearly documented by your comments about Kopitar's play/contract (Kings leading scorer, again). It seems you don't have the ability to come to terms with reality and are in constant panic mode.

Hawks had to resign 2 guys that were a major part of 3 cups. You have to pay for that. Now going forward they have to find ways of being competitive. Right now the Hawks are one point up on the Kings (one of their best seasons ever) and second in their division riding a 7 game win streak. They are finding a way of making it work with those 2 $10.5M contracts. You keep saying how those contracts are handcuffing the Hawks... I don't see it... they'll add some depth at the deadline and be competing for another cup. 10.5 is a lot, but those 2 give you a shot at the cup almost every year.

Just out of curiosity, how much do you think the cap will go down at the current or forecasted Oil prices... throw a number out why don't you.

Moving Brown, retaining 1.2-2M frees up more then enough to cover Kopitar's contract, variations due to Oil, and a replacement. I'm sure there are those out there that feel Brown should be moved regardless.

The world is always ending, and some day I'm sure it will. I just don't think Kopitar's contract and Oil are going to be what does it.

Keith contract is a big reason that allows Chicago to do what it does. And Panarin with his production and only costing 800K
And they currently don't have a 1.3 million recapture penalty like the Kings are facing

The Hossa contract will soon become an albatross much like the Brown contract.
The man is 37 years old, with 5 more years at 5.275 with an NMC.

Much like the Kings with Toffoli they will have to pay Panarin and Tairavinan after next year, both only make 800K or so.. Big raises coming. And if they Hawks are in cap hell, they may get offer sheeted.


Kings have 52 Million or there abouts of contracts next year, you pay Kopitar 10, your up to 62 Million leaving you maybe 11 million if the cap goes up to sign, 7 or 8 positions. Plus guys like Forbort are in RFA status, hopefully you can sign him to the same deal of like 900K.

That said given the cap, lots of serviceable players cannot find homes and you get a decent price for them. Its that and some of the AHL guys better be ready next year.
Will Gravel be NHL ready?

Not saying you don't pay the man, but there is a lot to consider here. At this point I think there is a greater chance the cap not going up than actually increasing.

 

[Bandit]

Cannot view in this region, boooo

Roughly translated: "Make Canadian fans think their favorite team can land Kopitar because clicks".

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The thing is, literally EVERY team will be in hot water next year--and if not next year, BY the following year--if the cap stagnates. I can imagine some collective bargaining for compliance buyouts if that's the case because otherwise very few people will be able to compete in good faith.

Now that's the bed that GMs/Owners have made and the PA will want them to sleep in it, but let's not pretend that the Kings are the only ones that will be hurting here.

 

[fsanford]

I would be curious where the numbers are at, but at the end of the day it may come down to Kopitar's decision. He can tell his agent accept it or we go to UFA.

CAD could be down to .60USD by summer if U.S hikes interest rates, that is brutal.

 

[KINGS17]

The thing is, literally EVERY team will be in hot water next year--and if not next year, BY the following year--if the cap stagnates. I can imagine some collective bargaining for compliance buyouts if that's the case because otherwise very few people will be able to compete in good faith.

Now that's the bed that GMs/Owners have made and the PA will want them to sleep in it, but let's not pretend that the Kings are the only ones that will be hurting here.

True, they just won't be hurting as much if they are smart with the Kopitar negotiations.

Maybe you're on to something with special compliance buyouts being negotiated by the owners and NHLPA, but I doubt it. What should happen, and small market teams operating under the cap would agree, is that GMs that are operating at or near the cap will have to waive some useful players. Teams like the Jets, Avs, Preds, and Coyotes may pick up some bargains. Veteran UFAs are going to find tougher going than even last summer. Players and agents are fond of saying, "Well, that's the market." when it is operating in their favor, but I think the worm is really going to turn.

With the cap possibly going down, I don't think any team will take Brown in a trade unless Dean retains a healthy amount of the cap hit, which kind of defeats the purpose.

 

[KINGS17]

I would be curious where the numbers are at, but at the end of the day it may come down to Kopitar's decision. He can tell his agent accept it or we go to UFA.

CAD could be down to .60USD by summer if U.S hikes interest rates, that is brutal.

Yeah, a while back I posted a link to an article that was written by a Canadian economist that said having the Canadian dollar around $0.85 for an extended period of time would have a significant impact on the salary cap. The Canadian dollar has been under $0.85 for over a year.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

True, they just won't be hurting as much if they are smart with the Kopitar negotiations.

Maybe you're on to something with special compliance buyouts being negotiated by the owners and NHLPA, but I doubt it. What should happen, and small market teams operating under the cap would agree, is that GMs that are operating at or near the cap will have to waive some useful players. Teams like the Jets, Avs, Preds, and Coyotes may pick up some bargains. Veteran UFAs are going to find tougher going than even last summer. Players and agents are fond of saying, "Well, that's the market." when it is operating in their favor, but I think the worm is really going to turn.

With the cap possibly going down, I don't think any team will take Brown in a trade unless Dean retains a healthy amount of the cap hit, which kind of defeats the purpose.

Maybe, but with the way it's going, I doubt many teams will be able to waive enough players to be cap compliant, nor will the teams with space want to use money on those guys since they'll be protecting cap space as a legit, important asset.

They're painting themselves into a corner and it's hard to have sympathy but it's also something that needs a solution that doesn't hamstring small-market teams.

But then again maybe DL is banking on it this time since he was pretty much 'punished' for not having/using any compliance buyouts when other teams were popping them like candy (and needed to). So he's ok being one of the last teams to really run up into trouble because he can say "look I have a history of not doing this...we need it." Unless he already used that goodwill with the Richards deal, damn dirty Kings!

 

[KINGS17]

Maybe, but with the way it's going, I doubt many teams will be able to waive enough players to be cap compliant, nor will the teams with space want to use money on those guys since they'll be protecting cap space as a legit, important asset.

They're painting themselves into a corner and it's hard to have sympathy but it's also something that needs a solution that doesn't hamstring small-market teams.

But then again maybe DL is banking on it this time since he was pretty much 'punished' for not having/using any compliance buyouts when other teams were popping them like candy (and needed to). So he's ok being one of the last teams to really run up into trouble because he can say "look I have a history of not doing this...we need it." Unless he already used that goodwill with the Richards deal, damn dirty Kings!

I dunno. If I am a team like Phoenix, am I willing to waive or buy out Shane Doan to pick up Jake Muzzin or Alec Martinez? Probably.

Players of this quality and these types of salaries might have to be waived if the cap decreases significantly. It's kind of far fetched, but it's the way it's supposed to work.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I dunno. If I am a team like Phoenix, am I willing to waive or buy out Shane Doan to pick up Jake Muzzin or Alec Martinez? Probably.

Players of this quality and these types of salaries might have to be waived if the cap decreases significantly. It's kind of far fetched, but it's the way it's supposed to work.

I agree, but my point is how can it work that way with EVERYONE in cap trouble? I mean, I guess it could be a series of 'waiver trades,' just seems more like this season where people are scared to make moves period.

 

[KINGS17]

I agree, but my point is how can it work that way with EVERYONE in cap trouble? I mean, I guess it could be a series of 'waiver trades,' just seems more like this season where people are scared to make moves period.

Everyone isn't in cap trouble though. Ten teams have almost $7M in available cap space. They could easily buy out some lesser players to claim better, more expensive players that would have to be waived by teams that would not be cap compliant.

If you look at Arizona for example, they have approximately $33M committed to 10 players this off season. Compare that to the Kings with $54M committed to 17 players (that doesn't include Kopitar), or worse say Minnesota with $64M committed to 15 players.

Now, imagine a scenario where the cap actually goes down by just $2M to $69M. You can see that teams like Phoenix are in a position to pick up some good assets without having to give up anything in return. This is how a capped league is supposed to work.

 

[Reclamation Project]

Nick Kypreos ‏@RealKyper 13s13 seconds ago Toronto, Ontario
Many thinking money/ term agreement has @LAKings Kopitar ext' imminent, no deal is in place as of now and told remaining talks at an impasse

That extra $1000 and fifteenth year makes all the difference.

 

[fsanford]

Yeah, a while back I posted a link to an article that was written by a Canadian economist that said having the Canadian dollar around $0.85 for an extended period of time would have a significant impact on the salary cap. The Canadian dollar has been under $0.85 for over a year.

Some predicting will not get back to that level til 2018, assuming Oil prices rebound.
NHL may have some tough decisions ahead

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Everyone isn't in cap trouble though. Ten teams have almost $7M in available cap space. They could easily buy out some lesser players to claim better, more expensive players that would have to be waived by teams that would not be cap compliant.

If you look at Arizona for example, they have approximately $33M committed to 10 players this off season. Compare that to the Kings with $54M committed to 17 players (that doesn't include Kopitar), or worse say Minnesota with $64M committed to 15 players.

Now, imagine a scenario where the cap actually goes down by just $2M to $69M. You can see that teams like Phoenix are in a position to pick up some good assets without having to give up anything in return. This is how a capped league is supposed to work.

Yeah I don't have time to look right now but was going to pull some situations of the opposite, of young but improving teams who seem to have a ton of space but in reality have to pay RFAs and others. The teams WITH space will largely be those that are unsuccessful, but they won't be able to afford to BECOME successful because then they'll have to pay out, rinse, repeat.

Are you saying that 2/3 of the league has less than 7 million of space? Does that not seem problematic to you?

I'm not trying to be combative, I get what you're saying, I'm simply saying the GMs/owners aren't saving themselves until it's too late--maybe they've now noticed as there's a freeze on contract signings and many trades, heh--and the sheer number and value of UFAs/RFAs this offseason is going to drive a feeding frenzy for these guys, they cannot NOT pay people.

 

[KINGS17]

Some predicting will not get back to that level til 2018, assuming Oil prices rebound.
NHL may have some tough decisions ahead

Meh, if I actually gave a ****, I could probably figure out a way around this in about an hour.

 

[KINGS17]

Yeah I don't have time to look right now but was going to pull some situations of the opposite, of young but improving teams who seem to have a ton of space but in reality have to pay RFAs and others. The teams WITH space will largely be those that are unsuccessful, but they won't be able to afford to BECOME successful because then they'll have to pay out, rinse, repeat.

Are you saying that 2/3 of the league has less than 7 million of space? Does that not seem problematic to you?

I'm not trying to be combative, I get what you're saying, I'm simply saying the GMs/owners aren't saving themselves until it's too late--maybe they've now noticed as there's a freeze on contract signings and many trades, heh--and the sheer number and value of UFAs/RFAs this offseason is going to drive a feeding frenzy for these guys, they cannot NOT pay people.

Yeah, I probably quoted the wrong number here. That value is for this season. The more important numbers to look at are the number of players signed and the cap space already committed to those players heading into next season.

A lot of teams have a lot of available cap space heading into next season. I know you're not being combative. I don't see why small market teams, or any teams without much cap space committed to players, heading into next season would let the teams that are over committed off the hook.

 

[Mattias]

Cannot view in this region, boooo

You did not miss a thing. 30 seconds of Dreg saying 'before we thought we had a deal, now we don't and there is a lot of variables!'.

Then the crew moved onto different trade targets.

 

[guderian]

I really don't get this discussion. If it comes to worst Kings will let Lucic walk. Kopitar will sign no matter what.
Kings can not allow him to walk away, #1 centers don't grow around on trees, especially not top 5 centers. In any case it's better (in this case lesser evil) to have hole on LW than at center.

Even if Kings must accept Kopitar @10M per year and cap stagnates @71,4M (and that's like worst case scenario), Kings would have around 2M of cap space(wich can be used than to bring in some short term rental help during season and will help to sign Toffoli and Pearson year after).

 

[kingsfan28]

You did not miss a thing. 30 seconds of Dreg saying 'before we thought we had a deal, now we don't and there is a lot of variables!'.

Then the crew moved onto different trade targets.

Yep, not really anything new. Reporters just trying to stay busy not really reporting anything other than the contract isn't signed yet.

 

[Bandit]

Yep, not really anything new. Reporters just trying to stay busy not really reporting anything other than the contract isn't signed yet.

So in other words, he's going to UFA. ****ing great.

 

[Reclamation Project]

Yep, not really anything new. Reporters just trying to stay busy not really reporting anything other than the contract isn't signed yet.

 

[Trolfoli]

At this point, with the salary cap for next year and for the next several years in question (it's okay, I know you don't understand why), I think Dean will continue to wait and make his final offer to Kopitar when he feels that his cap experts have a handle on what the salary cap will be for the next few years. That may not happen until after the season is over.

The cap is in question every year. What you are missing is that your numbers/beliefs are no more accurate then anything else. I don't care about calculating out what I think will happen, or looking up what some "expert" thinks will happen because there are too many variables at this point. When there is too much error in the calculation it quickly becomes pointless.... This you clearly don't grasp. One thing I've learned is that the apocalyptic view of things rarely comes to pass, but it sure is fun for the people that don't get it to talk about. I'm still waiting for the Zombie Apocalypse.

I also doubt Lombardi waits for the cap numbers before Kopitar's contract gets done. It would be stupid to take such an important piece that close to free agency. Kopitar's contract will get done. The pieces that need to, will be moved after to adjust to any surprises in the cap. It would be stupid to go that close to free agency to get a contract done, but I know you don't understand why.

I'm glad that you accept that the Hawks made a smart move keeping Kane/Towes... they needed to come up with some creative ways of filling out the team, but that's why the GM's get the big bucks.