2015-16 AHL Ontario Reign - going back to Cali, Cali, Cali...

[Fat Elvis]

Thoughts on Mersch, Dowd, Brodzinski, and Ebert, plus scoring chance, Corsi, and faceoff figures:

Reign #FancyStats Recap: Ontario Hiccups, Mersch Keeps It Up

Thanks for the write up.
Maybe it's a dumb question, but what do the Corsi numbers mean? CF CA? Not sure what those %'s mean. Sorry to ask, but I'm curious to know.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

Reign play with fire in OT win over Rampage

November 20: Bus texts with Stothers

The Reign beat the San Antonio Rampage in overtime, 4-3, after blowing a 3-0 lead. This was the team that beat them twice in a row in overtime.

Ontario Reign Weekend Preview: Ontario @ Rampage / @ Stars

And by our very own Sheng Peng:

Q & A: Ontario Reign's Nic Dowd Recounts His Unlikely Hockey Journey

JFTC: After Culver Prep, you tried out for the Des Moines Buccaneers of the USHL. You were cut, and you said you thought about quitting

ND: I did, yeah. Looking back, if I could go back and look at my younger self as I am now, I'd tell him, "Suck it up and quit being such a baby."

In the heat of the moment, I was pretty upset. I thought I played really well. I thought I deserved to be on the team. At that time, coming from Culver, there were so many kids I was surrounded with that had made and were drafted by USHL teams...When everybody does that, it's tough.

And then...

Plus there's a funny ping-pong quote re. Budaj at the end.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

Thanks for the write up.
Maybe it's a dumb question, but what do the Corsi numbers mean? CF CA? Not sure what those %'s mean. Sorry to ask, but I'm curious to know.

Here's a good piece on Corsi from JewelsfromtheCrown:

Corsi Explained

It's good you asked. It's something a lot of people are interested in since it's brought up a lot.

 

[Sheng Peng]

Thanks for the write up.
Maybe it's a dumb question, but what do the Corsi numbers mean? CF CA? Not sure what those %'s mean. Sorry to ask, but I'm curious to know.

Absolutely not a dumb question. If you have more questions after my explanation, please feel free to ask.

Corsi means ALL shot attempts (including blocked and missed shots) by either team in a game.

Let's take examples from the 11/11/15 ONT VS SJ game to further illustrate.

In this game, Ontario outattempted San Jose 55-41. Meaning for Ontario, their CF (Corsi For) was 55 and their CA (Corsi Against) was 41.

So that's the team level. Now let's talk about on an individual level.

For the aforementioned game, Michael Mersch posted a 26-7, or in other words, a 26 CF (Corsi For) and 7 CA (Corsi Against). This means that he was on the ice for 26 attempted shots by Ontario and just 7 attempted shots against Ontario. So for 78.8% of the total shot attempts that he was on the ice for, it was Ontario attempting a shot, or a 78.8% CF% (Corsi For %).

These are excellent numbers for Ontario and Mersch. For further explanation of why Corsi matters, the Jewels article cited above by PJ should help. And again, feel free to ask more questions.

 

[Fingolfin]

At the Reign/Stars game in Austin and it's 4-2 Reign after one period. Reign controlled the start and end of the period, but got pinned in during the middle. Mersch looks like a man possessed out there, and I've seen some good plays by Kempe, Zykov and Ebert.

Game is getting chippy. Shore looks to be trying to bait MacDermid into a fight. I expect to see some more extra-curricular activities in the second.

 

[CTKingsFan]

Crazy game! Reign ended up winning 7-6. For the second night in a row they blew a 3 goal lead. Yet, they won both games. I think Ray Emery might be toast. He didn't look good at all! Michael Mersch continued to do his thing with 2 goals. Kempe got one too. A guy who has impressed me is Samuels-Thomas. He has some decent skill. He also had 2 goals tonight.

Great quote from Stothers after the game. Stothers has my vote for Sutter's successor. Wins championships and is quote machine.

 

[damacles1156]

Stothers is one hell of a coach. Home run of a pick by Blake/Lombardi.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

A guy who has impressed me is Samuels-Thomas. He has some decent skill. He also had 2 goals tonight.

He sure looks like a bad ass.

 

[Luc Gretzky]

Stothers is one hell of a coach. Home run of a pick by Blake/Lombardi.

Couldn't agree more. As unique as Sutter is, they somehow found his brutha-from-anotha-mutha.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

Couldn't agree more. As unique as Sutter is, they somehow found his brutha-from-anotha-mutha.

It's eerie.

Just read the Reign Insider's Weekend Rewind: Mersch setting pace, PK human after all and I have a few questions.

1) Can you tell me who sponsored the Texas Stars game because I must have missed it.

2) What's Jordan Samuels-Thomas' future with the Reign? Is his nickname Sammy? Because really, how could you not cheer for a guy named Sammy?

3) Could they re-play that overtime-winning Mersch goal against the Rampage a few more times? Because that was niiice.

4) Who is the announcer of the Rampage game? He was so into it he almost had me cheering for the Rampage.

5) What is the plan for Emery? 7-6 game...ouch. But who else do we have?

 

[Holden Caulfield]

He sure looks like a bad ass.

Really glad to see him doing well. Was one of my favourite darkhorse prospects in the Jets system for quite some time. He unfortunately wanted to play out east coming out of college so Jets had to trade him but still like his upside as a potential depth player.

 

[Basilisk]

Maxim Kitsyn.......

I'm liking the fact that he's in the top 3 in scoring on his team. I'm even more liking the fact that he's one of the +/- leaders on the Monarchs. Could this be the season Kitsyn transitions from the ECHL to the AHL? After the Kings recall Mersch and whoever for their playoff run, there will be probably 2-3 spots open on Ontario's roster....


http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0073962016.html

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Would be nice, not exactly like we're dripping forward depth. He's worked hard by all accounts, would love his career to get back on track!

 

[Fat Elvis]

Absolutely not a dumb question. If you have more questions after my explanation, please feel free to ask.

Corsi means ALL shot attempts (including blocked and missed shots) by either team in a game.

Let's take examples from the 11/11/15 ONT VS SJ game to further illustrate.

In this game, Ontario outattempted San Jose 55-41. Meaning for Ontario, their CF (Corsi For) was 55 and their CA (Corsi Against) was 41.

So that's the team level. Now let's talk about on an individual level.

For the aforementioned game, Michael Mersch posted a 26-7, or in other words, a 26 CF (Corsi For) and 7 CA (Corsi Against). This means that he was on the ice for 26 attempted shots by Ontario and just 7 attempted shots against Ontario. So for 78.8% of the total shot attempts that he was on the ice for, it was Ontario attempting a shot, or a 78.8% CF% (Corsi For %).

These are excellent numbers for Ontario and Mersch. For further explanation of why Corsi matters, the Jewels article cited above by PJ should help. And again, feel free to ask more questions.

Thank you so much, explained perfectly.

 

[EXTRAS]

Could Justin Auger ever be a good bottom 6 guy in the NHL? does he have an NHL pro career ahead of him, or forever AHL guy?

 

[King'sPawn]

Thank you so much, explained perfectly.

Just to add to what Sheng said; a lot of people criticize corsi for teams that have high corsi but don't have much success. Corsi is USUALLY better used as a predictor over long periods of time, because a sample size of one game usually isn't very telling.

That's not to take away the awesome work Sheng is doing, because over the season, you're going to have a much better picture of the possession metrics in the Reign.

However, people point out that the Kings, which are typically a top corsi team, not making the playoffs last season. They use instances like this to argue against corsi.

But just like anything else, it's a predictor and a metric. It doesn't guarantee 100% accuracy. However, the overall theory of corsi is a team which has more shot attempts possesses the puck more, and teams that possess the puck more are usually more successful.

Could Justin Auger ever be a good bottom 6 guy in the NHL? does he have an NHL pro career ahead of him, or forever AHL guy?

I definitely think he has a chance to become a decent bottom 6 guy. There are very few players in their early 20s I would ever label as a career AHLer

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

Justin Auger and Adrian Kempe have scored so far in tonight's game. Also,

 

[HansH]

Anyone coming down to San Diego on Friday for the Reign/Gulls game? Let me know, I'd love to say hi between periods or something.

The Gulls are coming in on an 0-5-1 skid after a 9-2 start -- partially explained by the Ducks pulling up a good portion of their first-line talent. They'll likely be without their starting goalie for the same reason, with Gibson up with the Ducks since their starter is out with the flu.

The Gulls put in easily their worst home effort all season tonight, so it remains to be seen if they come in mad at how they played, or just decide to continue to fail at passing over and over. They're really vulnerable to the speedy breakaway counter, especially if Theodore plays like he did tonight.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

It's tough when your team gets gutted by call-ups. Didn't Theodore get called up earlier in the season for a bit?

Coach Mike Stothers had some great quotes after last night's 2-1 victory over the Stockton Heat. (Courtesty of ReignInsider.com)

Head coach Mike Stothers, on the Reign taking penalties:

I was pretty happy, we got it down from seven to five. So, obviously they’re starting to listen. I don’t know what to tell you, we take penalties. I don’t know, maybe the refs don’t like us. We seem like a friendly enough bunch but for whatever reason we end up in the penalty box.

Good words about Andrew Crescenzi as well, who is expected to return on Friday.

Justin Auger on his goal:

I was just kind of in front of the net there and it kind of went right on my stick. It’s hard to miss those with the wide open net I just swung at it and luckily it went in...It seemed like it was going in slow motion I was just hoping no one would come in there and whack it away. It felt like couple minutes it took to get in there but luckily it trickled in...

 

[damacles1156]

Haha Stothers is a quote machine just like Sutter.

 

[HookKing]

It's tough when your team gets gutted by call-ups. Didn't Theodore get called up earlier in the season for a bit?

Coach Mike Stothers had some great quotes after last night's 2-1 victory over the Stockton Heat. (Courtesty of ReignInsider.com)


Good words about Andrew Crescenzi as well, who is expected to return on Friday.

Justin Auger on his goal:

"hard to miss those with a wide open net"

Clearly he's nowhere near ready for a call up.

 

[regulate]

"hard to miss those with a wide open net"

Clearly he's nowhere near ready for a call up.

The funny thing was seeing it live, it looked like he almost fanned on it, just getting enough to tap it in.

Auger does some good things from time to time, but he is incredibly inconsistent and I don't see good hockey IQ from him. Good passes to him frequently bounce off his stick. I don't see him as ever being quick enough for today's NHL. I am not too hopeful for him panning out as a bottom six NHL player.

 

[Jason Lewis]

Haha Stothers is a quote machine just like Sutter.

Dude was on another level last night. His goalie interference rant was awesome.

Thought he had a great response to my inquiry on Ebert. It is definitely interesting to hear that the Kings want to promote puck movers jumping into the play rather than "Playing it safe"

They do have a tremendous amount of skating defensemen with good recovery speed. Teaching them how and when to pick the right times is obviously key and I thought both Ebert and Leslie looked very good last night doing so.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

Yeah, that goalie interference rant was classic.

Forgot to post this the other day. Kings 2015-16 Early Season Prospect Rankings: No. 6, 7, and 8

Also, on last night's game from JftC:

Reign Recap #15: Ontario Subscribes to Wednesday Evening Post

 

[damacles1156]

Dude was on another level last night. His goalie interference rant was awesome.

Thought he had a great response to my inquiry on Ebert. It is definitely interesting to hear that the Kings want to promote puck movers jumping into the play rather than "Playing it safe"

They do have a tremendous amount of skating defensemen with good recovery speed. Teaching them how and when to pick the right times is obviously key and I thought both Ebert and Leslie looked very good last night doing so.

I have high hopes for Ebert, I am rooting for the kid.