Speculation: 2014 Offseason - Roster Building / Trade Speculation Thread

[Inferno]

Agreed - maybe, just maybe, by the time Henrik retires, we will have a team thats a lot stronger in other areas.

This philosophy that we need to go for it now while Henrik is still Henrik will likely end with Lundqvist retired and this team possessing nothing of significant value.

again, i ask how.

all the major teams that are strong in multiple areas have done so by extremely high draft picks signed to cost effective deals and have won through their RFA years before theyve really cashed in big time. Weve been a good team for a long time, its next to impossible for teams like that to actually get better.

Why?

Draft picks are much lower, and when you are close, you trade them outright for upgrades today, a-la MSL.

So now weve got fewer young cheap options to upgrade all our holes. As our star players get older you only have 2 options of replacing them. Overpay for people on the free agent market, crippling the team to upgrade in multiple places OR replace them with inferior talent from within.

So, I'll say it agian, the window of opportunity TO WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP is extremely small. 5 years would be my guess.

AFter that you could keep sputtering along as a tweener team thats always on the verge but never makes it, or you tear it all down and start over building from the draft.

This notion that once Henrik retires that the team in front of him will be strong enough to carry a more inferior goalie, to me, is ludicrous. it defies everything we've seen in the NHL over the past 20 years sans the Detroit Red Wings, who, to be fair, started their entire historic run with a #4 Draft Pick named Steve Yzerman.

 

[Hitch16]

I am a fan of Lundqvist so this is just this one's fans humble opinion.

My question here is, does anyone think we make it to the SCF with Cam Talbot as our goalie instead of Henrik Lundqvist.

I'd have to know the roster. If Lundqvist was injured and we had the same players, no. If we had Lundqvist's salary allocated to better offensive players? Maybe.

Do we beat the Penguins in that Game 7 where they were all over us and Henrik had to be God-Qvist with Talbot in net?
Same as above.

Do we beat the Habs when Henrik makes that ridonkulous ninja save in game 6?
Maybe we sweep or win in 5 with a different roster.

Do we even win 1 game in the SCF when Henrik stands on his head in game 4?
Are we still down 3-1?

That being said Inferno - I like our chances better with Henrik. I also think there is a domino affect. Like if we took Jeff Carter or Zach Parise in 2003 instead of Hugh Jessiman, the sequence of events that follow could be much different.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Kesler isn't coming here to play for AV. That guy also loves getting injured.

And Brassard was never going to play for Arniel again. And Holik and Gomez were never going to play for the Rangers. And so forth.

Point is, absolutes like the one you just listed are often broken.

 

[The Broadway Hat]

So, literally... everything you said was opinionated and wrongly so, too...

Yeah I guess your opinions are the only right ones. Because opinions can be right and wrong. I say hank has 4 good years left. You say he has more. How can I possibly argue with that logic. You win a very convincing argument.

 

[n8]

Could be, but I don't even think that Joe Thornton and Dan Boyle will help them win now.

Boyle has severely regressed. Thornton has never performed in the playoffs.

If you're going to go for it now, like you think we should, i'd consider going after other people and breaking the bank on them, rather than the two geriatrics you mentioned.

edit: oh, too good. can't resist

Point is, absolutes like the one you just listed are often broken.

Joe Thornton has the best overtime playoff goal celebration of all time.

 

[Championship*]

And Brassard was never going to play for Arniel again. And Holik and Gomez were never going to play for the Rangers. And so forth.

Point is, absolutes like the one you just listed are often broken.

Arniel was the assistant coach and Brass also called Arniel after he was hired by the Rangers to congratulate him. No where was it reported that he wouldn't play for Arniel. He also didn't have a choice - he was already on the team.

Kesler has made it abundantly clear that he isn't playing for AV again.

Those two things are not alike. Holik and Gomez also didn't have a problem with the coach when they signed here. The situations aren't the same.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Yeah I guess your opinions are the only right ones. Because opinions can be right and wrong. I say hank has 4 good years left. You say he has more. How can I possibly argue with that logic. You win a very convincing argument.

No. I said I don't know where you get the conception that he only has 4 years left at winning the cup. It's just plain wrong. A lot of goalies have won late into their careers.

You're trying to justify your opinions by claiming them as fact. Such as how we need to trade for better players now because we have such a limited window. Who is giving this window?!?! You?!?!

Ok.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

If there is a Staal I would like to acquire it would actually be Jordan.

I don't think the Rangers necessarily need a dominant 1C. Would be nice, but center depth is far more important IMO. And what the Rangers are missing is a defensively responsible matchup C who can still move the puck and skate. That is why I am advocating for ROR or J Staal. Fills a need, adds diversity to the lineup.

Not that there have been any rumblings on his availability since the deadline.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

If there is a Staal I would like to acquire it would actually be Jordan.

I don't think the Rangers necessarily need a dominant 1C. Would be nice, but center depth is far more important IMO. And what the Rangers are missing is a defensively responsible matchup C who can still move the puck and skate. That is why I am advocating for ROR or J Staal. Fills a need, adds diversity to the lineup.

Not that there have been any rumblings on his availability since the deadline.

 

[Leetch3]

Why do people want Spezza? Ottawa wants to trade him for a reason. He's a **** player, now.

thats completely wrong. ottawa doesn't want to get rid of him. HE asked to be traded.

 

[Leetch3]

i think if you get Thornton straight up for Staal for example, with the Sharks retaining some salary (can they do it for just 1 year?)

salary needs to be retained for the entire contract, so all 3 years on his deal...so we'd need to give up more in terms of assets to get them to do it.

 

[LORDE]

I'm so sick of this narrative that we will never have another goalie after Hank. Yeah, he's the best, but lots of goalies not named Henrik Lundqvist have won the cup. The idea that we have a window of 3 or 5 or however many years until Hank is no longer Hank is a complete fallacy.

I tend to agree but I think what Inferno was getting at, wasn't just about Hank. It has to do with the rest of the "core" and the recent acquisition of MSL.

When taken as a whole, the team that you want to win with has a realistic (without the benefit of knowing what other changes will be occurring) window. That window is closing. In that vein I agree with him.

 

[Championship*]

St. Louis and Anaheim have the assets to acquire Spezza. They'll make large pushes.

 

[Inferno]

Detroit won with Osgood, who generally isn't considered to be elite. Boston won with Thomas playing out of his mind, but he wasn't even an NHL starting goalie until he was 33. LA never tanked, and Quick wasn't considered elite before they won in 2012.

But you're right. It's impossible to win the cup without tanking, having an elite goaltender, or both. And we will never have an elite goaltender after Hank. And I guess we'll never tank either. Good to know.

LA Never Tanked? 03-04 20th in the league, 05-06, 20th in the league, 06-07, 28th in the league, 07-08, 29th in the league. 08-09, 26th in the league

Seroiusly?

6 straight top 10 draft picks. Those players they god? Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Benier, Drew Doughty...theyre, you know, kinda important players for that team.

Ive already acknowledged that Detroit is the 1 outlier.

Boston Bruins finished 23rd in 06-07, 26th in 05-06. They ended up drafting Kessel, Lucic, and Marchand with either first 3 picks in 2006...one of the best drafts you can say any team has had in a logn time.

Kessel really helped turn them intot he team they are today...mostly because of what they got back for trading him away.

 

[Championship*]

From 2009-present, all the cup winners were VERY bad at one point.

 

[Trxjw]

If there is a Staal I would like to acquire it would actually be Jordan.

I don't think the Rangers necessarily need a dominant 1C. Would be nice, but center depth is far more important IMO. And what the Rangers are missing is a defensively responsible matchup C who can still move the puck and skate. That is why I am advocating for ROR or J Staal. Fills a need, adds diversity to the lineup.

Not that there have been any rumblings on his availability since the deadline.

I agree. I've always been a fan of Jordan's.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

If there is a Staal I would like to acquire it would actually be Jordan.

Completely agree. Very interested in Jordan.

 

[Inferno]

From 2009-present, all the cup winners were VERY bad at one point.

yeah, i dont get how people dont acknowledge this.

you either tank, or you build from an elite goalie out.

or, you get incredibly lucky and some magic voodoo happens where an average team somehow wins which hasnt happened in a LONG time.

The Rangers got their #1 franchise player, a player who would be the #1 draft pick if his draft year was done over again. they got incredibly lucky.

and theyve built a damn good team around him, mostly through trades, but also through good drafting, etc.

They arent what youd call prohibitive cup favorites, but you can imagine them being a team that can get through the east for each of the next few years. esp with Nash and MSL on the team, and the strong D we have.

However, they arent going to be able to replace those players easy. and were already seeing this offseason how some of our kids starting to produce can bite us in the ass with expensive contracts (girardi, cally, zucc, kreider, etc)...and we havent even hit next year when Stepan and Hagelin are up for new deals.

if you want to try to get younger, etc, thats fine, but, in all likelyhood we wont become a prohibitive cup favorite, we'll have to have a lot of things break right to win.

I want this team to become a cup favorite, win 1 or 2 cups in the next 4 years, and then tear it all down and start over. To me that should be the blueprint.

Theyre best players, their key guys, the guys they are leaning on, they arent young players like Toews, Kane, Crosby, Malkin, etc.

They are older guys, starting to go to the wrong side of 30. Eventually we are going to have to replace something like 140 points from Nash and MSL with guys...who are we putting in their place?

Buch & Duclair? Miller & Fasth? Lindberg and Kristo?

When has an UFA hit the market that hasnt gotten a deal that has crippled the franchise going forward? Almost all the "good" superstar deals are signed with people retaining their own players.

The window to win a cup is still here, but its smaller than people want to acknowledge.

 

[Championship*]

When Jordan left the Pens, a huge hole opened up for them. They have the two best players at 1 and 2 but it deep sixed their 3rd line when he left. He's a great player. Overpaid, but great.

 

[The Broadway Hat]

9 more years at 6M per for 40-50 points a season? Sign me up for Jordan Staal

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

edit: oh, too good. can't resist




Joe Thornton has the best overtime playoff goal celebration of all time.

He scored 2 goals in 2 series' in the '13 playoffs.

He's historically a .99 ppg player in the regular season.

He's historically a .75 ppg player in the post season.

That is a .24 ppg drop off

In contrast, Richards was historically a .88 ppg player in the regular season and dropped off to .76 in the post season, an indication that maybe better players experience a drop off in play, albeit Richards relative performance was better in the post season than Thornton's, despite being a worse average regular season player.

But then you get to someone like Ryan Getzlaf... who at no point has ever posted up numbers better than Thorntons and you see:

.96 ppg during the regular season
.91 ppg during the post season

How about Patrice Bergeon?

.75 ppg regular season
.69 ppg post season

Not even Sidney Crosby, who elicits double coverage throughout the playoffs from any and every team that he faces has that big of a drop off. He averages 1.39 ppg in the regular season and 1.2 in the post season.

Jeff Carter? .72 reg season vs. .65 post season.
Anze Copital? .90 reg season vs .86 post season.

Wanna know who DOES have a lower ppg drop off from regular season to post season?

Rick Nash. .80ppg vs .44.

So you're in favor of adding a guy who has one of the highest relative drop offs from regular season production to post season production and couple him with another guy who suffers from the same. exact. thing???

Everyone suffers a set back in the post season, but the core players that matter nearly maintain their regular season rate of scoring when scoring becomes more of a premium.

Some more examples:

Toews: .91 vs. .86
Kane: .96 vs .98 (Wow you mean it is actually possible for a star player to exceed their rate of performance when it matters more???)
Krejci: .75 vs. .83 (Another guy!!)
Giroux: .91 vs 1.07 (And another!!)

Yes. What I really really want, is a guy who has one of the worst drop offs in production from regular season to post season. That's it. You got it!

 

[jerseyjinx94]

What if we did absolutely nothing but retain our players and let Boyle walk, with Miller replacing Richards. How would you guys feel?

What if we let Boyle and Stralman go and replace them with Lindberg/Fast and Dan Boyle, with Miller replacing Richards. How would you guys feel about that?

I don't know what I prefer. I love Stralman and Boyle, but I think long term, we're better off letting them go.

 

[Swept In Seven]

1. I'm not sold on me first ROR who I consider good but overrated. That said, there is a possible short term fit.

2 Instead of Staal, let's move Girardi + his contract.
How about
Girardi + J. Moore + Buchnevich
for
ROR + Siemens

McD Stralman
Staal Allen
Siemens McIlrath


EDIT follow up:
If you now have

ROR and Stepan /+

do you consider that a basis to flip
for

Zibby + Spezza /+ ?

Agree that ROR is a bit overrated and that I'd rather keep Staal and flip Girardi, but the rest is way out in left field here

 

[Hitch16]

What if we did absolutely nothing but retain our players and let Boyle walk, with Miller replacing Richards. How would you guys feel?

What if we let Boyle and Stralman go and replace them with Lindberg/Fast and Dan Boyle, with Miller replacing Richards. How would you guys feel about that?

I don't know what I prefer. I love Stralman and Boyle, but I think long term, we're better off letting them go.

JerseyJinx - I think we should explore our internal options first so I agree.

I would like to keep Dominic Moore and Anton Stralman. Then I think the next priority is Pouliot. I like Boyle but I think he is going to price himself out.

I know it's exciting to envision new players wearing your team's colors but I think there is value in stability and a low roster turnover.

 

[Fugazy]

What if we did absolutely nothing but retain our players and let Boyle walk, with Miller replacing Richards. How would you guys feel?

What if we let Boyle and Stralman go and replace them with Lindberg/Fast and Dan Boyle, with Miller replacing Richards. How would you guys feel about that?

I don't know what I prefer. I love Stralman and Boyle, but I think long term, we're better off letting them go.

Definitely a no to Dan Boyle unless it's an extremely team friendly contract.