2014 CBJ Offseason Thread III (All proposals, "blog" rumors, speculation in here)

major major

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Feb 18, 2013
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Okay here's my take at the lets keep everybody for the next umpteen years (2018-19) because our prospects will never be better than what we have now:

The numbers seem reasonable. I can see the cap being somewhere $80-$90m around then, and we'd have to not resign guys like Wiz, and trade Arty and Atkinson. That'd save us $14.5m with just those three players, bringing us down to ~$78m. You've actually managed to persuade me that we can keep Foligno even if we're stuck with Horton and Hartnell's contracts!

*If we're not a low-budget team.
 

LetsGOJackets!!

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Mar 23, 2004
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Are you Jared Boll?

The point is a fair one that says this roster as you project it won't be demonstrably better than it would be if AA and Foligno were the guys playing in place of a couple of the young guys coming up through the system. I won't venture to guess what the roster looks like in 3 years, and the future of role players is always tenuous. I understand the cyclical process in which draftees develop and push out vets. I also understand high hopes for Wennberg and Milano, as well as the rest. But guys like Dano, Rychel and Bjorkstrand will need to outplay Anisimov and Foligno, in my mind, to push them out; or else in 3 years we will be going with unproven youngsters to try to be competitive, make the playoffs, and become world champions. Meanwhile, Anisimov and Foligno will both be in their prime vets (29 years old each).

It's almost like your using the model of a small market team. Columbus may be a "small market", but they have not spent like one in a few years (though Jarmo seems to be changing that). I appreciate your belief that all those prospects will develop into top 6 NHL players and play their way onto this roster, and I hope they do. But they have to do that first, and in the meantime we have some pretty decent late year models in the garage right now.



I remember when Arniel was all about rolling 4 lines. The Dubinsky and Anisimov lines do seem interchangeable, with roughly equivalent levels of effectiveness but different styles. Still, I hesitate to deviate from a tried-and-true conception of lines. Which is why I still prefer a bruiser like Boll on the 4th line rather than expecting offense to be generated there.

now I understand why you took so much offense to my saying Boller really doesn't have a place or an attribute that sticks our & guarantees him some PT. You are Jared Boll, or maybe his Mom?
 

major major

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*Resolves to stop putting trust in the coach*

He doesn't think Foligno is even worth $3m, and yet calls himself a "big fan". I'm not buying it. I just don't think this project of his - based almost entirely on points comparisons - is worth a whole lot when it comes to players who are not pure scorers. He has no way of bringing in the rest of the game of hockey in to his analysis. Take a player like Callahan, for example, who is overpaid by a million or two, but by Coach's method should be making less than Ribeiro, despite being by all accounts a much better player.

He also says that Foligno produces at the low end of top six considering his ice time: "The guys who play the offensive minutes he plays produce more." I'm not sure how to square that with the fact that he led the team's wingers in scoring per minute 5 on 5 (league-wide Foligno was 77th in forwards 5-on-5 scoring per minute, about a hundred players ahead of any of Coach's comparables).

He wants to treat Foligno like Devin Setoguchi? Jets fans didn't care much for Setoguchi, who was considered a superfluous mediocre scorer who didn't add much else. Meanwhile Jackets fans have a disagreement about what they'd pay Foligno, but generally find him to be a pretty helpful player in a lot of ways. The Coach's method throws out the obvious hockey knowledge in favor of points - not even in favor of advanced stats about who really drives the play - just points. Yes he has filters for age and past production. But do you have a filter that can tell the difference between an obviously good player and a bad player? No? Then its not helpful.
 
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Fro

Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
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you're entitled to your opinion...but its kinda what he did...he worked with arbitration cases...so these scenarios are what happens in real life...

yes they are more simplistic than with actual, but when you get more in depth, you lose average readers...
 

major major

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Feb 18, 2013
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you're entitled to your opinion...but its kinda what he did...he worked with arbitration cases...so these scenarios are what happens in real life...

yes they are more simplistic than with actual, but when you get more in depth, you lose average readers...

Yes but with Foligno he was explicitly giving his opinion on what the Jackets should pay him, not on what an arbitrater should award: " I am not certain it would be wise for the Jackets to spend the money it will likely take to keep him. Considering the contracts around the league, he’s probably worth $3m per season max, and I’d be much more satisfied with something in the $2.5m to $2.75m range. He’s a bit of a tweener."
 

db2011

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Oct 10, 2011
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Brooklyn
now I understand why you took so much offense to my saying Boller really doesn't have a place or an attribute that sticks our & guarantees him some PT. You are Jared Boll, or maybe his Mom?

I didn't take offense; I simply found your saying that Boll got a 1.7 mill contract to give the fans a fight every night worthy of ridicule. If nothing else, I'd imagine that management has come to the conclusion, based on the evidence, that it's winning hockey, not fights, that sells tickets.

Since my mentions of Boll in the post you're responding to came in the last sentence, I'm at least grateful you got that far :help:
 

Fro

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Yes but with Foligno he was explicitly giving his opinion on what the Jackets should pay him, not on what an arbitrater should award: " I am not certain it would be wise for the Jackets to spend the money it will likely take to keep him. Considering the contracts around the league, he’s probably worth $3m per season max, and I’d be much more satisfied with something in the $2.5m to $2.75m range. He’s a bit of a tweener."

and? I like Foligno as well, but he's right...i'm sorry he's one of your favorite players, but nothing he said was wrong IMO
 

IHeartZherdev*

Guest
*Resolves to stop putting trust in the coach*

He doesn't think Foligno is even worth $3m, and yet calls himself a "big fan". I'm not buying it. I just don't think this project of his - based almost entirely on points comparisons - is worth a whole lot when it comes to players who are not pure scorers. He has no way of bringing in the rest of the game of hockey in to his analysis. Take a player like Callahan, for example, who is overpaid by a million or two, but by Coach's method should be making less than Ribeiro, despite being by all accounts a much better player.

He also says that Foligno produces at the low end of top six considering his ice time: "The guys who play the offensive minutes he plays produce more." I'm not sure how to square that with the fact that he led the team's wingers in scoring per minute 5 on 5 (league-wide Foligno was 77th in forwards 5-on-5 scoring per minute, about a hundred players ahead of any of Coach's comparables).

He wants to treat Foligno like Devin Setoguchi? Jets fans didn't care much for Setoguchi, who was considered a superfluous mediocre scorer who didn't add much else. Meanwhile Jackets fans have a disagreement about what they'd pay Foligno, but generally find him to be a pretty helpful player in a lot of ways. The Coach's method throws out the obvious hockey knowledge in favor of points - not even in favor of advanced stats about who really drives the play - just points. Yes he has filters for age and past production. But do you have a filter that can tell the difference between an obviously good player and a bad player? No? Then its not helpful.

Well said, Major Major.

The "Salary Project" makes no sense, especially when it comes to guys like Foligno. Not sure I see the value in pretending to be an arbitrator for non-arbitration eligible players. Taking market value out of the equation for guys who are on the verge of UFA is pretty inane. The names he mentions in the Foligno article (Setoguchi, Peter Mueller, etc) make no sense, and neither does "salary" of $2.5 to 2.75 million.

As usual, the CBJ blogosphere continues to embarrass. The Evander Kane to Ryan Johansen comparison ... Oof. Pretty sure Evander Kane isn't a #1 center.
 

Fro

Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
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:facepalm:

you read the part that the Coach used to work in arbitrating right? so that whole "makes no sense" is about as wrong as possible. Maybe to you it doesn't, but its a look into how the process works. I'll quote the part

Right now there is one thing (almost) going on in the NHL: arbitration hearings. I say almost, as hearings basically NEVER happen anymore, with all the scheduled hearings getting canceled so far after the players and teams have come to agreements. However, I know a thing or two about arbitration in the NHL, having penned this article at the Score, this MUCH longer in-depth paper, as well as first hand experience working on NHL arbitration cases.


its fine to disagree with him on what he presents, but before ****ing all over the posts, understand that the points are valid...
 
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major major

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Yeah I have no problem with the Coach describing what arbitration entails for a players salary. But with respect to Foligno he's very clearly entering normative territory; he's giving a limit to what the Jackets should pay Foligno, beyond which he should be let go.
 

Fro

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Yeah I have no problem with the Coach describing what arbitration entails for a players salary. But with respect to Foligno he's very clearly entering normative territory; he's giving a limit to what the Jackets should pay Foligno, beyond which he should be let go.

and that's why i don't have a problem with your post...you got the point to be made...

I agree in theory that Foligno is better than most of the bottom top 6 players he mentioned, but also understand that Foligno's stats can be replaced somewhat easily. Taking the emotion out of liking the player is difficult
 

IHeartZherdev*

Guest
:facepalm:

you read the part that the Coach used to work in arbitrating right? so that whole "makes no sense" is about as wrong as possible. Maybe to you it doesn't, but its a look into how the process works. I'll quote the part




its fine to disagree with him on what he presents, but before ****ing all over the posts, understand that the points are valid...

When was the last time a player went to arbitration and got an "award" of a reduced salary, which is what he is suggesting for Foligno?
 

major major

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Feb 18, 2013
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I agree in theory that Foligno is better than most of the bottom top 6 players he mentioned

You said it.

but also understand that Foligno's stats can be replaced somewhat easily.

I think that's probably true. You want 40 points and don't care much about what else the player does? Pick Mueller or Setoguchi off the scrap heap.
 

Fro

Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
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exactly...but tho I'm personally not gonna have the emotional attachment to the latter two that I do with Foligno...mainly b/c of the cool stuff that Foligno has done here that you read about in those CBJ fluff pieces and the story with his child that cemented many ppl as to being a fan of his.
 

EspenK

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Sep 25, 2011
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Don't know exactly where to put this so I stuck it here. What is a better a 30 pt guy with off the chart corsi & fenwick and all those other things I don't remember or a 50 pt guy who has below average fancy stats?

Assuming that either scenario is possible.
 

Fro

Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
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Don't know exactly where to put this so I stuck it here. What is a better a 30 pt guy with off the chart corsi & fenwick and all those other things I don't remember or a 50 pt guy who has below average fancy stats?

Assuming that either scenario is possible.

interesting thought...i'm just really learning the fancy stats stuff, but the 50 pts guy with below average stats means the opponents are shooting more than he is, so he may be scoring 50 pts, but we may be giving up 60 (if that makes sense)

while the 30 pts guy means he's shooting more than the opponent so its possible to say he's at 30 points and the opponent is 20...
 

major major

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Feb 18, 2013
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Don't know exactly where to put this so I stuck it here. What is a better a 30 pt guy with off the chart corsi & fenwick and all those other things I don't remember or a 50 pt guy who has below average fancy stats?

Assuming that either scenario is possible.

There's no way to answer that. I really think you have to have a case by case approach and also use your eyes.

Beyond the information you mentioned I'd really need to know how the player is used (quality of competition, quality of linemates, zone starts), and how things have changed year to year.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
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interesting thought...i'm just really learning the fancy stats stuff, but the 50 pts guy with below average stats means the opponents are shooting more than he is, so he may be scoring 50 pts, but we may be giving up 60 (if that makes sense)

while the 30 pts guy means he's shooting more than the opponent so its possible to say he's at 30 points and the opponent is 20...

I guess then +/- would come into play. I'm trying to decide if it is worth getting immersed in fancy stats. My gut inclination is to acknowledge they exist and may be used to decide certain options but I'm going to stick with pts and my eyes to decide if a guy sucks or not. :laugh:

Can't imagine sitting around a bar arguing with some big old tough guy and saying "Yeah, but what is his corsi?" Like saying "go ahead hit me" :laugh:
 

Fro

Cheatin on CBJ w TBL
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I guess then +/- would come into play. I'm trying to decide if it is worth getting immersed in fancy stats. My gut inclination is to acknowledge they exist and may be used to decide certain options but I'm going to stick with pts and my eyes to decide if a guy sucks or not. :laugh:

Can't imagine sitting around a bar arguing with some big old tough guy and saying "Yeah, but what is his corsi?" Like saying "go ahead hit me" :laugh:

i wasn't going to, but the more I see them in posts and with how the team has immersed themselves in them, I figure its probably pretty smart to understand them on at least some basic level...AlisonL has been educating me slowly on how to read the charts and understand numbers etc. I'm a data analyst for my company and these stats confuse the hell out of me...so this should be interesting...either for the hockey side, or for my career :laugh:
 

major major

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Feb 18, 2013
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I don't find that there's anything advanced or fancy about the newfangled stats. They're all just basic arithmetic.

But the way some of the fancy stats are justified does actually turn out to be pretty complex, and I want to explore that more someday. Folks say a player "drives possession" or is better at "possession", when they're simply looking at a player's positive shot plus/minus (corsi), a move that is justified because Corsi supposedly highly correlates with time of possession. I'd like to test out just how good that correlation is, because there are a lot of other factors (like proclivity to shoot) that would seem to influence shot attempts.
 

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