2014-2015 General Wild Discussion Thread IV

[Sharppi]

You know what's missing this year?

"Oh my god look at Todd Richards now he's making Blue Jackets go deep in the playoffs what a coach why did we let him go and hire a rookie Yeo"

 

[MNNumbers]

Standings Update
Ranked by WminusL.

Pacific:
Anaheim...+21
Vancouver...+10
Calgary....+9
San Jose....+8
Los Angeles...+7

Central
Nashville....+26
St Louis....+22
Chicago....+17
Winnipeg....+10
Minnesota....+8

Minnesota and San Jose tied for the 8th spot....

 

[Sharppi]

Bolded ones are against weaker teams, games we should take.
Underlined games are back to backs (note 2 back to backs in a row).

2015 02 16 Vancouver Away
2015 02 18 Calgary Away
2015 02 20 Edmonton Away
2015 02 22 Dallas Home
2015 02 24 Edmonton Home
2015 02 26 Nashville Away
2015 02 28 Colorado Away
2015 03 03 Ottawa Home
2015 03 05 Washington Away
2015 03 06 Carolina Away
2015 03 08 Colorado Home
2015 03 10 New Jersey Home
2015 03 13 Anaheim Home
2015 03 14 St Louis Away
2015 03 17 Nashville Away
2015 03 19 Washington Home
2015 03 21 St Louis Home
2015 03 23 Toronto Away
2015 03 24 New York (I) Away
2015 03 27 Calgary Home
2015 03 28 Los Angeles Home
2015 04 02 New York (R) Home
2015 04 04 Detroit Home
2015 04 06 Winnipeg Home
2015 04 07 Chicago Away
2015 04 09 Nashville Away
2015 04 11 St. Louis Away

I would let Kuemper play following games:
20.2.2015 @ Edmonton
6.3.2015 @ Carolina
24.3.2015 @ NY Islanders
and possibly
7.4.2015 @ Chicago, depending how the standings look

 

[FVM]

This is way premature, but IF they make the playoffs, I'd love it to be the 1st wild card. Most likely they'd get the Pacific division winner and no team in Pacific really scares me. Still think Anaheim is a pretender, not a contender.

 

[StealthClobber]

The two back to backs in a row doesn't really scare me, after all the second two are both home games.

The first half is a little intimidating though, Toronto and NYI. I think we should definitely take Toronto, but you never know with this Wild team; we don't play them a lot. And of course NYI is tops of the East so there's a question mark there as well.

 

[Jarick]

My projections (not counting division/wildcard)

1 NASHVILLE - 113.1 pts
2 ST LOUIS - 108.6 pts
3 CHICAGO - 103.6 pts
4 ANAHEIM - 102.8 pts
5 VANCOUVER - 93.2 pts
6 CALGARY - 93.1 pts
7 WINNIPEG - 92.7 pts
8 MINNESOTA - 90.5 pts
9 LOS ANGELES - 90.4 pts
10 SAN JOSE - 90.2 pts
11 DALLAS - 85.5 pts
12 COLORADO - 80.6 pts
13 ARIZONA - 64.9 pts
14 EDMONTON - 58.8 pts

That would mean something like...

NASHVILLE vs MINNESOTA
ST LOUIS vs CHICAGO
ANAHEIM vs WINNIPEG
VANCOUVER vs CALGARY

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

All amazing looking series to be honest. Obviously we don't have a ton of history with Nashville but their fans are awesome.

 

[MNNumbers]

My projections (not counting division/wildcard)

1 NASHVILLE - 113.1 pts
2 ST LOUIS - 108.6 pts
3 CHICAGO - 103.6 pts
4 ANAHEIM - 102.8 pts
5 VANCOUVER - 93.2 pts
6 CALGARY - 93.1 pts
7 WINNIPEG - 92.7 pts
8 MINNESOTA - 90.5 pts
9 LOS ANGELES - 90.4 pts
10 SAN JOSE - 90.2 pts
11 DALLAS - 85.5 pts
12 COLORADO - 80.6 pts
13 ARIZONA - 64.9 pts
14 EDMONTON - 58.8 pts

That would mean something like...

NASHVILLE vs MINNESOTA
ST LOUIS vs CHICAGO
ANAHEIM vs WINNIPEG
VANCOUVER vs CALGARY

Jarick,

I am away from my computer, so I can't post mine. PM me with your method. My method is a Bradley-Terry evaluation of the strength of all teams, and then comparison of future schedule. I have only done the remainder of the schedule for the 6 teams contending for the last playoff spots. I have not updated the teams power rankings since Friday night, so it would change slightly, but I have Minnesota 9th.

 

[Minny Lakes]

I shouldn't be talking about playoffs since were not even in it yet.
But i'm up for playing anyone in the west except St. Louis and Chicago in the first round. Nashville is getting a little scarier with their trade editions, but their forward group isn't the greatest (Even though everything else is league best). Mike Riberio is their first line center.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

Kind of crazy how Chicago and St. Louis find ways to play each other in the first round. Kind of a shame one team has to be eliminated right away.

 

[Jarick]

I'm happy to see how Schroeder has chipped in. I'd love to see him be a Zucker lite. Worried he will disappear, but what can you do?

 

[Jarick]

Jarick,

I am away from my computer, so I can't post mine. PM me with your method. My method is a Bradley-Terry evaluation of the strength of all teams, and then comparison of future schedule. I have only done the remainder of the schedule for the 6 teams contending for the last playoff spots. I have not updated the teams power rankings since Friday night, so it would change slightly, but I have Minnesota 9th.

Mine is nowhere near that complex. It's a tweak on the pythagorean expected wins based on goal differential.

 

[MNNumbers]

Mine is nowhere near that complex. It's a tweak on the pythagorean expected wins based on goal differential.

Mine gets complicated because you need to know how many wins each team has so far. The question becomes... "How do you deal with overtime games?". So I call OT wins a full win and SO wins 2/3. That seems fair to me.

Overall, I think any method will have a hard time dealing with the Wild, because that section with the bad goaltending is not representative of the team as a whole. Thus, any method is likely to underestimate the Wild finish.

 

[Jarick]

Predictions are hard for sure.

For example, the Kings are the #1 team in 5v5 CF% and are on track to miss the playoffs. They have been #1 each year but they snuck into the playoffs twice and won the Cup.

I like looking at opposing team win% for remainder of schedule (assuming that's what you're doing) because there's definitely a difference in terms of how the Wild do vs playoff and non-playoff teams. I just don't have the time to assemble the stats because I have to manually pull them.

 

[BigT2002]

I just keep getting the feeling we are the odd man out after the regular season. We have by far the roughest schedule at the end in comparison with many of those who are fighting for the wild card spots.

 

[Sharppi]

I just keep getting the feeling we are the odd man out after the regular season. We have by far the roughest schedule at the end in comparison with many of those who are fighting for the wild card spots.

I fear the same way, 9th in the west.

 

[BurnsyMN]

I just keep getting the feeling we are the odd man out after the regular season. We have by far the roughest schedule at the end in comparison with many of those who are fighting for the wild card spots.

That would be the most depressing thing ever after the excitement of the playoffs last year. We'll probably miss by a point or two or not hold a tiebreaker. A long Summer questioning "what if" on all that has happened this year.

 

[BigT2002]

That would be the most depressing thing ever after the excitement of the playoffs last year. We'll probably miss by a point or two or not hold a tiebreaker. A long Summer questioning "what if" on all that has happened this year.

What will be killer is if we miss out by a point and you look back at some of those games like New York where they should have won it no problem.

 

[123TripleDoge]

Or the hardheaded staff that wouldn't address a terrible pp

 

[Victorious Secret]

Or the hardheaded staff that wouldn't address a terrible pp

If we don't make the playoffs I'm absolutely certain we'll have all new staff next year. Win, win.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

That's a bold claim...I would argue that since we've been playing so much better with a competent goalie it gives them even more reason to retain the staff, no matter what happens at the end of the season. I can't foresee any big changes unless they completely fall apart again.

 

[gphr513]

Yeah, I think if we keep playing well, and just miss out, I think there were enough roadblocks (mumps, goaltending) to buy Yeo another year. I don't necessarily know how I would feel about it, just what I think will happen.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

Like Talon said in another thread - sure, Dubnyk's stats are pretty incredible, but it's not like he's swooping in to steal every win he's had. He maybe stole a game in Calgary and got us a point in Winnipeg but he's just playing well enough to stop the shots we're giving up. He's playing in the same type of mold as Harding did to begin last season..his numbers were outstanding and top of the league type numbers but you didn't feel as though he was stealing games. With even just a competent goalie, our game is so much better and when we were getting bottom of the league goaltending everything else fell apart. I don't think this vindicates Yeo as an amazing coach or anything (even though I think he's a good coach) but it certainly shows a lot of this was out of his control.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

Vanek's not at practice today...per Russo. No explanation yet.

Edit: Regarding of his status, I was going to suggest switching up the lines anyways. Bring back:

Parise - Granlund - Pommer
Nino - Koivu - Fontaine
Graovac - Coyle - Schroeder
Vayoo - Haula - Brodziak

Man...losing another top 6er wouldn't be ideal.

 

[Jarick]

Make a run at the playoffs, miss by a point, still have a 1% change to win the lottery, grab McEichel and run