Speculation: 2013 Offseason Thread Part III: Free Agents Suck

[Kershaw]

Two guys with a combined 13 points this season on our 2nd line next year over our 3rd leading goal scorer and best player down the stretch and through the playoffs. In no way does that make sense.

Hagelin factor. And Burmi >> Brassard

 

[Trxjw]

Hagelin factor. And Burmi >> Brassard

Like I said, in no way does it make sense. It's player bias and nothing more.

 

[Kershaw]

Like I said, in no way does it make sense. It's player bias and nothing more.

Burmistrov was in the doghouse with Noel, despite dramatically increasing puck possession rates with any set of linemates. Hagelin is probably the best puck possession player on this team. Hockey is not all about point totals. IMO, puck possession is way more valuable than point totals in soft zone starts.

 

[GAGLine]

http://blueshirtsunited.com/event/219

DZ is 23.

In 19 days he'll be 23. Cerny was correct, but he will be 23 to start next season, which is what really matters.

 

[Thirty One]

Burmistrov was in the doghouse with Noel, despite dramatically increasing puck possession rates with any set of linemates. Hagelin is probably the best puck possession player on this team. Hockey is not all about point totals. IMO, puck possession is way more valuable than point totals in soft zone starts.

Points aren't everything, but they certainly help. Brassard scored at a rate 60% higher than that of Burmistrov at even strength.

Also, Brassard's offensive zone start % was 47.5, Burmistrov's 52.0.

We've talked about this Kershaw. You've decided that one player is better than the other and are building your case for that using stats, instead of letting the stats tell you which player is better.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

if we got burmistrov who cares who is better. can interchange them between lines. they both can be a 2 or 3c

 

[Thirty One]

if we got burmistrov who cares who is better. can interchange them between lines. they both can be a 2 or 3c

One is clearly more suited to being the 2C at this point in their careers, though.

 

[Inferno]

can you imagine if we bought out Richards, then went to sign Lecavalier and Vanek for like 4 years at 3mil per or something like that.

hahahaha

 

[RangerBoy]

In 19 days he'll be 23. Cerny was correct, but he will be 23 to start next season, which is what really matters.

3 years away from group III. The Rangers really don't have the luxury of waiting until DZ is 29 or 30 to determine what they have him. Not that the Rangers should dump him but its not 1990 anymore.

 

[Trxjw]

Burmistrov was in the doghouse with Noel, despite dramatically increasing puck possession rates with any set of linemates. Hagelin is probably the best puck possession player on this team. Hockey is not all about point totals. IMO, puck possession is way more valuable than point totals in soft zone starts.

At this point Brassard is simply a far better player than Burmistrov is, and I've been championing Burmi since I thought we might have a crack at him on draft day. Puck possession means very little if it doesn't translate into scoring. This isn't money ball. Burmistrov got better zone starts than Brassard to begin with.

Advanced stats are nice, but they simply cannot stand on their own. The Corsi ratings from game 2 for Crosby and Krejci are a small example of that.

 

[RangerBoy]

Jim Cerny: I'm just not crazy about the older bigger-name free agents out there, though Patrick Elias certainly proved he can still play at a high level...but I just see too much risk, and not sure the Rangers are going to have a lot of $$$ to throw around after signing their own RFA and planning ahead for Lundqvist, Cally, Girardi, and Staal shortly...They might need to look into the mid-level free agents---a Mike Santorelli, a Peter Regin, a Max Lapierre to fill certain roles...I just don;t see a slam dunk fit for the Rangers out there

http://blueshirtsunited.com/event/219

If you project ahead,paying all of the current players doesn't leave much room.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

At this point Brassard is simply a far better player than Burmistrov is, and I've been championing Burmi since I thought we might have a crack at him on draft day. Puck possession means very little if it doesn't translate into scoring. This isn't money ball. Burmistrov got better zone starts than Brassard to begin with.

I disagree with this, but, I wouldn't even bother arguing over Brassard with Kersh. He's set in his ways.

Would love to get Burmi, I think he's ready to break out. Plus, I also think Winnipeg would be adding to the deal if it was indeed a DZ/Burmi swap.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

http://blueshirtsunited.com/event/219

DZ is 23.

Still quite young for a Defenseman.

 

[iamitter]

At this point Brassard is simply a far better player than Burmistrov is, and I've been championing Burmi since I thought we might have a crack at him on draft day. Puck possession means very little if it doesn't translate into scoring. This isn't money ball. Burmistrov got better zone starts than Brassard to begin with.

Advanced stats are nice, but they simply cannot stand on their own. The Corsi ratings from game 2 for Crosby and Krejci are a small example of that.

I know what you're trying to say, but you can't look at one of those in a vacuum. Zone starts, QOC are all a factor. Plus it's a teensy sample size.

Say the Bruins had 40 SOG in the game and the Penguins 10. The Pens win. Doesn't mean that's what you expect to happen, but it's an unlikely result. Corsi's the same way. You can't say it always correlates to shots for - shots against, which correlates to scoring chances for - scoring chances against, which correlates to goals scored - goals scored upon, which correlates to winning.

If you outchance someone, it doesn't mean you're going to win. However, you usually will.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

One is clearly more suited to being the 2C at this point in their careers, though.

Stepan, Brassard and Burmistrov as our top3 Centers would be amazing. All can play 1st line minutes.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Stepan, Brassard and Burmistrov as our top3 Centers would be amazing. All can play 1st line minutes.

.....just not exceedingly well.

 

[Trxjw]

I know what you're trying to say, but you can't look at one of those in a vacuum. Zone starts, QOC are all a factor. Plus it's a teensy sample size.

Say the Bruins had 40 SOG in the game and the Penguins 10. The Pens win. Doesn't mean that's what you expect to happen, but it's an unlikely result. Corsi's the same way. You can't say it always correlates to shots for - shots against, which correlates to scoring chances for - scoring chances against, which correlates to goals scored - goals scored upon, which correlates to winning.

If you outchance someone, it doesn't mean you're going to win. However, you usually will.

I'm not saying they're useless, but they have their flaws, and because of those flaws you cannot base an argument entirely upon them. I don't need to see a Corsi rating to know that Callahan is a better player than Hartikainen, or that Brassard is a more effective 2C than Burmistrov is. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Trxjw]

.....just not exceedingly well.

I certainly thought Stepan did an exceedingly good job of handing the #1C role this year. Hopefully that continues, but I don't think the team needs a dominant, PPG+ center as badly as others do.

 

[RangerBoy]

According to GVT,Stepan was the 3rd best center in the NHL behind Crosby and Toews

A simplistic way to approach this is that there are 30 teams in the NHL and consequently 30 “#1 centers.” Using that as a guideline, Stepan ranked comfortably among the group we could refer to as #1’s in all scoring categories. The number that really sticks out is his 3rd place ranking in GVT. GVT is Hockey Prospectus’ player valuation metric that attempts to determine a player’s value based on his offensive, defensive and shootout contributions to his team. According to this metric Stepan was the third most valuable center in the NHL this year behind just Sidney Crosby and Jonathan Toews. That’s impressive.

http://nyrnation.net/projecting-how-much-stepan-is-worth-as-a-rfa/

 

[NYR Viper]

I certainly thought Stepan did an exceedingly good job of handing the #1C role this year. Hopefully that continues, but I don't think the team needs a dominant, PPG+ center as badly as others do.

Stepan was VERY good this season. He is easily a solid #1 center at this point in his career with room to grow.

I disagree with this, but, I wouldn't even bother arguing over Brassard with Kersh. He's set in his ways.

Would love to get Burmi, I think he's ready to break out. Plus, I also think Winnipeg would be adding to the deal if it was indeed a DZ/Burmi swap.

It makes a ton of sense to get a good, young center in Burmistrov +.

http://blueshirtsunited.com/event/219

If you project ahead,paying all of the current players doesn't leave much room.

That's a-okay with me. They need to rebuild their depth and add some guys who can skate.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

According to GVT,Stepan was the 3rd best center in the NHL behind Crosby and Toews



http://nyrnation.net/projecting-how-much-stepan-is-worth-as-a-rfa/

He really was incredible last season, in all 3 zones. He's probably going to be even better next year.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

I certainly thought Stepan did an exceedingly good job of handing the #1C role this year. Hopefully that continues, but I don't think the team needs a dominant, PPG+ center as badly as others do.

Stepan was very good. Hes definitely well on his way to being an NHL #1 center. An NHL #1 center on a championship team? That Im not so sure about. I think that top line center is the most important position in the NHL, and the only way to get away with not having an elite player in that role is if you are a team with VERY good depth like the Bruins. The Rangers aren't there yet.

So, take my reply with a grain of salt when it comes to Stepan. I think its ridiculous to say that stuff about Brassard and Burmistrov.

 

[Kershaw]

Points aren't everything, but they certainly help. Brassard scored at a rate 60% higher than that of Burmistrov at even strength.

Also, Brassard's offensive zone start % was 47.5, Burmistrov's 52.0.

We've talked about this Kershaw. You've decided that one player is better than the other and are building your case for that using stats, instead of letting the stats tell you which player is better.

At this point Brassard is simply a far better player than Burmistrov is, and I've been championing Burmi since I thought we might have a crack at him on draft day. Puck possession means very little if it doesn't translate into scoring. This isn't money ball. Burmistrov got better zone starts than Brassard to begin with.

Advanced stats are nice, but they simply cannot stand on their own. The Corsi ratings from game 2 for Crosby and Krejci are a small example of that.

Fair enough, I just feel Brassard isn't a long term solution to be a 2C on a contending team. 2C on very poorly constructed teams/inefficient C depth. I feel Burmistrov does have that upside and has proven that his line will possess the puck while he is on the ice. Just a lack of scoring confidence, but easy player to pick out who'll have a breakout season based on his high percentage puck possession rates.

Also, to add onto the Krejci/Crosby 1 game debate:

Of course it's flawed when zone starts aren't taken into account. Crosby had 1 defensive zone draw, 7 neutral zone draws and 9 offensive zone draws. Krejci on the other hand, had 8 defensive zone draws, 12 neutral zone draws and 3 offensive zone draws. It's seems pretty natural that the player who gets more offensive zone starts (Crosby) will have a better shot differential while on the ice as opposed to the shutdown player (Krejci). Corsi is a stat that measures all shots directed at net, hence it makes sense why Crosby had a better rating with softer zone starts.

 

[NikC]

He really was incredible last season, in all 3 zones. He's probably going to be even better next year.

Stepan was sensational towards the end of the season. better than i've ever seen him. too bad he had a rough playoffs, esp vs Bos.

is he ready to be a full time 1C? i'm not sure. might not have a choice....

stepan
Brassard
Miller
Boyle

 

[Clown Fiesta]

Maybe. Going to be a while before that call can be made.

Like four months, do we not have the luxury of waiting that long? Must trade/sign players ASAP to fill holes we may or may not have?

Derek Stepan is on the rise, at a rate eerily similar to Claude Giroux, and has only improved. Quick we must sign a veteran #1 center because there is no way Stepan can handle those minutes just yet.

Makes ZERO sense to me.