2013 New Jersey Devils (Team News, Player Discussion - Part X)

[Oneiro]

This is just Neidermayer all over again, except this time it's Parise.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Anyone can post a list of draft picks to support whatever view point they want (whether it's pick 10 being not really that much better than pick 30 or vice versa). Obviously draft picks aren't going to always hit at the top or always be wasted at the bottom, it's an inexact science.

Thing is when you don't know what's going to be available to you or how the player's career pans out beforehand, a #10-15 pick should eventually have infinitely more value than a #29 pick in theory. In practice it may not work out that way but that doesn't mean GM's should go trading their firsts two years down the road for a pick at the back end of a first round in a weak draft this year.

Why? All you have to do is look at prior drafts and selections to see for yourself. There is no reason why pick 10 has infinitely more value than pick 20 when you see the selections. Slightly more valuable? Sure. Infinitely? That's like a top 3 pick compared to a 5th round pick.

 

[NJDevs26]

Why? All you have to do is look at prior drafts and selections to see for yourself. There is no reason why pick 10 has infinitely more value than pick 20 when you see the selections. Slightly more valuable? Sure. Infinitely? That's like a top 3 pick compared to a 5th round pick.

Again, why I said IN THEORY. Plus when you're talking about a difference between say, 9 and 29, there's also all the 'other' guys that go in between 9-29, that doesn't get factored into anyone's list. Maybe the Devils draft someone that gets taken a few picks later that does have a successful NHL career. It's not just about comparing picks other teams make at that particular spot. That's far fewer choices for your team to have, and you have far less of a chance of finding an NHL player from 29 on than from 9-28.

That is a big assumption. What if 2014 is a VERY weak draft? What if 2012 was a VERY strong draft.

Lou made the right decision at the time to take the pick now and wait until 2014 to forfeit the pick.

Last year was supposed to be a bad draft.

 

[tycobb]

Yeah, I'll trust my eyes and just look at the players myself. I'm sure that's interesting but you lost me at the scatter plot. They also do not take production into account whatsoever, only games played. It doesn't account for the actual quality of the NHL player. A third line player who has a long career would have the same value as Steven Stamkos under that analysis.

Did you read the paper? They use game play because they are comparing F, D, and goalies.

You can find bust at every draft pick, but the chances of player not being an NHL player increases every pick.

 

[tycobb]

Again, why I said IN THEORY. Plus when you're talking about a difference between 9 and 29, there's also all the 'other' guys that go in between 9-29, that doesn't get factored into anyone's list. Maybe the Devils draft someone that gets taken a few picks later that does have a successful NHL career. It's not just about comparing picks other teams make. That's far fewer choices for your team to have, and you have far less of a chance of finding an NHL player from 29 on than from 9-28.



Last year was supposed to be a bad draft.

You need like 10 years after a draft to figure out if the class was weak or strong.

 

[NJDevs26]

You need like 10 years after a draft to figure out if the class was weak or strong.

Agreed that you don't know that beforehand, but beforehand was when we had to make our choice on giving up the pick or not. Giving up almost the worst pick possible in a supposedly mediocre-poor draft should have been a no-brainer but it wasn't.

 

[guitarguyvic]

It's worth more in the short term but not in the long run.

Do you really think Lou is thinking about the long term right now? The guy will probably likely be retired in 5 years. Marty will be gone. These guys are trying to win now. Also, human nature is to proctrastinate, especially on things that are negative. Things change over time; that 1st rounder that we are giving up might be recouped through a trade, who knows. Then on top of that, there's really not that much oof a difference between 10-16 pick and a 17-30 pick. It's really not as simple a decision as many make it out to be.

 

[NJDevs26]

Do you really think Lou is thinking about the long term right now? The guy will probably likely be retired in 5 years. Marty will be gone.

And that is EXACTLY why he kept the pick and picked short-term gain over long-term sense. And why he's keeping eight defensemen around even though it's ****ing around with Larsson/Fayne/etc big-time.

 

[RandoDoomer]

This is just Neidermayer all over again, except this time it's Parise.

Lets hope the Sal and Zajac contracts don't turn into the harken back to the MMM disaster.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Did you read the paper? They use game play because they are comparing F, D, and goalies.

You can find bust at every draft pick, but the chances of player not being an NHL player increases every pick.

Yes I read it, which is why I said that they don't take into account production at the NHL level. It is simply the probability that the player reaches the NHL and how long they stay in the league. It has nothing to do with the quality of the player.

So Steven Stamkos and Mario Lemieux would have less relative value than Sean O'Donnell and Gary Roberts. It's a good gauge of the likelihood that the player reaches the NHL, but not a good indicator of the quality of that player.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Lets hope the Sal and Zajac contracts don't turn into the harken back to the MMM disaster.

If he's that bad, Sal can be amnestied.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Do you really think Lou is thinking about the long term right now? The guy will probably likely be retired in 5 years. Marty will be gone. These guys are trying to win now. Also, human nature is to proctrastinate, especially on things that are negative. Things change over time; that 1st rounder that we are giving up might be recouped through a trade, who knows. Then on top of that, there's really not that much oof a difference between 10-16 pick and a 17-30 pick. It's really not as simple a decision as many make it out to be.

It was not a wise decision on the surface and at the time in a draft that was termed "weak" by draft gurus.

Now, if Stef ends up having success in NJ Lou looks like a genius.

But the outrage will be fierce by Devils Nation if we have to forfeit a top 10 or 5 pick next season. Right or wrong.

I always have a long view for the health and stability of the franchise; hockey and business wise.

If Lou does not anymore its time for a new GM.

 

[tycobb]

Agreed that you don't know that beforehand, but beforehand was when we had to make our choice on giving up the pick or not. Giving up almost the worst pick possible in a supposedly mediocre-poor draft should have been a no-brainer but it wasn't.

You are not understanding..... On 2014 draft day - Matteau is going to be worth more than the 15th picked. Low 1st round picks are not nearly as valuable as you think they are.

 

[hlaverty06]

Drafts since 2003

2003
1st-Parise
2nd-Petr Vrana
3rd-Ivan Khomutov
5th-Zach Tarkir
6th-Jason Smith
8th-Joey Tenute
9th-Arseny BOndarev

2004
1st-Travis Zajac
5th-Alexander MIkhailishin
6th- Josh Disher
7th- PL3, Tyler Eckford


2005
1st-Bergfors
2nd-Frazee
3rd-Mark Fraser
4th-Patrick Davis
5th-Mark Fayne
6th-Sean Zimmerman
7th-Alex Sundstrom

2006
1st-Matt Corrente
2nd-Alex Vasyunov
3rd-Kirill Tulupov, Vladimir Zharkov
4th-Tyler Miller
5th- OLiver Magnan
6th-Tony Romano
7th-Kyell Henegan

2007
2nd- Mike Hoeffel
3rd-Nick Palmieri/Corbin McPhearson
4th-Matt Halischuk
6th- Vili Sopanen
7th-Ryan Molle

2008
1st-Mattias Tedenby
2nd-Brandon Burlon, Patrice Cormier
3rd-Adam Henrique
4th-Matt Delahey
5th-Kory Nagy
6th-David Wohleberg
7th-Harry Young

2009
1st-Jacob Josefson
2nd-Eric Gelinas
3rd-Alex Urbom
4th-Seth Helgeson
5th-Derek Rodwell
6th-Ashton Bernard
7th-Curtis Gedig

2010-2012 is too hard to tell

What the **** happened to our drafting 2003-2007? Since then has been eh but not as bad

 

[schoenfeld]

holy hell are 2006-2007 BAD

i liked halischuk, flipping him for oldarnott was a headscratcher then and it looks even worse now.

 

[SKNJD9]

holy hell are 2006-2007 BAD

i liked halischuk, flipping him for oldarnott was a headscratcher then and it looks even worse now.

I liked Matt too and wish he didn't get dealt but the deal made sense. We were desperately in need of a big center... no one predicted the hell season we were about to be sent on.

 

[njdevilsownnhl*]

Hallischuk has 8 points in 24 games. I'm glad he isn't on this team. We have enough worthless players.

 

[NJDevs26]

You are not understanding..... On 2014 draft day - Matteau is going to be worth more than the 15th picked. Low 1st round picks are not nearly as valuable as you think they are.

15 is not a 'low' first-round pick, it's a mid first-rounder.

 

[Holtz My Bahls]

God, most of those years are brutal.

 

[CerebralGenesis]

That is a big assumption. What if 2014 is a VERY weak draft? What if 2012 was a VERY strong draft.

Lou made the right decision at the time to take the pick now and wait until 2014 to forfeit the pick.

2012 was considered a weak draft so that throws that theory out the window. He was also picking at 29 which was certain.

You don't know where the team will be in 2 years. It could be drafting at 30 or 1. You're taking a big risk. This isn't a change of pick 15 to 20, it could literally be 1 to 30. Who knows, that risk was ignored cause he figured the team would be competitive. Let's hope it is more competitive than this year.

 

[CerebralGenesis]

Drafts since 2003

2003
1st-Parise
2nd-Petr Vrana
3rd-Ivan Khomutov
5th-Zach Tarkir
6th-Jason Smith
8th-Joey Tenute
9th-Arseny BOndarev

2004
1st-Travis Zajac
5th-Alexander MIkhailishin
6th- Josh Disher
7th- PL3, Tyler Eckford


2005
1st-Bergfors
2nd-Frazee
3rd-Mark Fraser
4th-Patrick Davis
5th-Mark Fayne
6th-Sean Zimmerman
7th-Alex Sundstrom

2006
1st-Matt Corrente
2nd-Alex Vasyunov
3rd-Kirill Tulupov, Vladimir Zharkov
4th-Tyler Miller
5th- OLiver Magnan
6th-Tony Romano
7th-Kyell Henegan

2007
2nd- Mike Hoeffel
3rd-Nick Palmieri/Corbin McPhearson
4th-Matt Halischuk
6th- Vili Sopanen
7th-Ryan Molle

2008
1st-Mattias Tedenby
2nd-Brandon Burlon, Patrice Cormier
3rd-Adam Henrique
4th-Matt Delahey
5th-Kory Nagy
6th-David Wohleberg
7th-Harry Young

2009
1st-Jacob Josefson
2nd-Eric Gelinas
3rd-Alex Urbom
4th-Seth Helgeson
5th-Derek Rodwell
6th-Ashton Bernard
7th-Curtis Gedig

2010-2012 is too hard to tell

What the **** happened to our drafting 2003-2007? Since then has been eh but not as bad

This could pretty much be blamed for our lack of scoring. None of our picks really panned out or develop properly. What the heck are we supposed to fill our lineup within with?

 

[apice3*]

And that is EXACTLY why he kept the pick and picked short-term gain over long-term sense. And why he's keeping eight defensemen around even though it's ****ing around with Larsson/Fayne/etc big-time.

Personally, I can't see any person working extremely hard for one company for 30 years and being as well respect and then not giving a **** about that company once retirement comes along.

Not to mention his son's ties with the organization, I don't think Lou is going to intentionally jeopardize the franchise his son works for.

That conspiracy theory is just straight up silly.

I won't believe the pick gets forfeited until it actually gets forfeited. I think something's up.

 

[DKQ]

Lou better do some damn good work in the UFA market this year if we want the pick next year to be any better than a top 5 pick. That means retaining Elias and Clarkson on reasonable contracts (Clarkson should not be making more than 4~ mil) and aggressively pursuing scoring FA's like Ryder, Horton or Macarthur.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Lou better do some damn good work in the UFA market this year if we want the pick next year to be any better than a top 5 pick. That means retaining Elias and Clarkson on reasonable contracts (Clarkson should not be making more than 4~ mil) and aggressively pursuing scoring FA's like Ryder, Horton or Macarthur.

Ugh. You call those players goal scorers? Save your cap space.

 

[hlaverty06]

Ugh. You call those players goal scorers? Save your cap space.

Ummmmm.....I am not to sure about you but I'd take Nathan Horton over Alexei Ponikarovsky