Prospect Info: 2013-2014 Rangers Prospects Thread *Part III* (Player Stats in Post #1; Updated 4/8)

[Beacon]

This thought process makes no sense to me. The player is scoring at a very high level in a very good league. What would impress you? What do players have to do to impress you? Many of you are setting these players up to fail if you expect every one to get to 115 points in a season and stating it's necessary to score at that level in order to do well.

JT Miller had just over a ppg in Plymouth the year after his draft. Is he a bust?

The mere fact that someone is scoring 80-90 points in juniors is not overly impressive. It means that a person has decent skills, but nothing that will set the NHL on fire. When you are talking about two-way players like Callahan and Miller, it's one thing because those types of guys have the rest of their game.

On the other hand, if you don't have much going besides your offense and you are scoring 80-100 points (as opposed to 110-125), you shouldn't be classified as an offensive dynamo. Unless you are one of the top 2-3 offensive players in your junior league (and you aren't in your overager season), don't expect to make the NHL on your offense alone.

 

[Punxrocknyc19*]

The mere fact that someone is scoring 80-90 points in juniors is not overly impressive. It means that a person has decent skills, but nothing that will set the NHL on fire. When you are talking about two-way players like Callahan and Miller, it's one thing because those types of guys have the rest of their game.

On the other hand, if you don't have much going besides your offense and you are scoring 80-100 points (as opposed to 110-125), you shouldn't be classified as an offensive dynamo. Unless you are one of the top 2-3 offensive players in your junior league (and you aren't in your overager season), don't expect to make the NHL on your offense alone.

if points mattered in junior hockey then Evgeny Grachev would have made the NHL before Anthony Peluso...


http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0016372009.html


same can be said for Zac Rinaldo http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0047152009.html

Kyle Clifford http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0008352009.html

Andrew Shaw http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0047142009.html

this just proves that getting points in junior hockey does not mean much when it comes to making the NHL..

PK Subban 3rd in points while Eric Tangradi led that same team in goals and points at the same age of 19, he is still finding his way after being waived by the Penguins as a 4th liner. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0008202009.html
Brandon Mashinter also on that same team had 39 goals in 54 games 74 points.

and this is why i dont get excited about Duclair and Tambellini putting up a lot of points..

 

[Beacon]

this is why i dont get excited about Duclair and Tambellini putting up a lot of points..

There's a difference between one and the other. Forget that Tambellini has done it for only a few games. Even if it were for the same number of games...

People get confused by the meaning of the word "a lot". What does that mean? People view anything above a point per game as a lot. But there's a big difference between someone scoring 1.25 points per game and 1.75 points per game, as The Duke is doing. The gap from 1.75 to 1.25 is the same as from 1.00 to 0.5.

To suggest that someone who had 1.3 points per game (like Dawes, Grachev or MSC) is the same as The Duke would be wrong. At least when it comes to offense, he's got more talent. To compare him to someone who has almost half a point less per game would be unfair. He can still fail, but presently he should be seen as being on a different level from the other guys I mentioned.

 

[slipknottin]

If they redrafted, what round would Tony, and buch and Tambellini go now? Still third?

 

[Zil]

If they redrafted, what round would Tony, and buch and Tambellini go now? Still third?

Buch fell because of the Russian factor. Teams concerned that he wouldn't come over back in June are probably still concerned he's not coming. Tambellini's stock hasn't really gone up much since the draft if it all. The only riser would be Duclair. How much higher he'd go is an open question though.

 

[Ian]

Duclair would probably be in the 25-35, maybe 2-3 picks earlier depending on the team.

Buch would probably still be a 3rd rounder, but possibly could get chosen in the high 60s. While he's played well this year, I think he's still looked at being at least 2-3 years away at best.

Tambellini is probably a late 3rd rounder.

 

[nyr2k2]

If they redrafted, what round would Tony, and buch and Tambellini go now? Still third?

Buchnevich would probably go a little higher, but not much. The Russian factor scared a lot of teams away. His play this year has been terrific though, so he might go a round higher.

Tambellini would probably stay in the same range. Maybe a bit lower. I'm sure some teams would be bothered by his struggles at the NCAA level and decision to "run" to junior hockey.

Duclair's draft position was the topic of discussion a few pages back. Two years ago he was looked at as a viable future first round pick. A tough year last season and some disciplinary/character issues caused his stock to drop quite a bit. With the tremendous season he has had, and being named an alternate on the team, I think he'd be a lock for the top fifteen, twenty or so picks in the draft.

 

[Beacon]

Buch fell because of the Russian factor. Teams concerned that he wouldn't come over back in June are probably still concerned he's not coming. Tambellini's stock hasn't really gone up much since the draft if it all. The only riser would be Duclair. How much higher he'd go is an open question though.

The Duke would get drafted in the first half of the first round. He's outscoring all the 2013 first rounders who are in juniors except Drouin and Mantha.

The Butcher would be a second rounder because of the Russian factor. He's in the top 6 in scoring on his KHL team as an 18 year old.

Tamb probably goes around the same place where he went before, early in the 3rd rounder. On the one hand he struggled in college, on the other he has done well in juniors.

 

[Beacon]

Had we kept our draft picks last season and drafted Duclair in the first, Butcher in the second and Tamb in the third, we'd have been happy right now with what we've done in the draft.

 

[Joey Bones]

If they redrafted, what round would Tony, and buch and Tambellini go now? Still third?

Buchnevich was already considered to be a mid to late 1st round draft choice, but got hit with the russian factor. This was also in a deep draft class last year so that alone is impressive. Now he could've easily hit top 15, but like the russian factor would insist, he could've probably have been late 1st again.

I wouldn't say Tambellini has done much to raise his stock, but I would say he would've been picked either a little higher in like the late 2nd round or exactly where he was originally picked.

Duclair with his play this year would most definitely be top 10 and maybe even top 5. The guy has already 50 goals and almost 100 points.

I will say that I feel that Ranger 6th rounder, Skapski, would definitely be a higher pick than the 6th round. I'd say somewhere in the 3rd round.

 

[Trxjw]

I don't think Duclair would go in the top-10 if the draft was redone today. In no particular order:

MacKinnon
Jones
Drouin
Barkov
Lindholm
Monahan
Nichushkin
Ristolainen
Zadorov
Horvat
Lazar
Nurse

are all better prospects right now than Duclair, IMO. Duclair might sit in the next group with guys like Mantha, Rychel, Domi and Pulock. I think somewhere between 12-20 is a safe bet though. The production is great, but he's scoring a ton of his goals around the net. I don't think he's going to be able to be so potent in that area at the next level unless he puts on some serious muscle.

 

[Let Blaine Die]

Buchnevich was already considered to be a mid to late 1st round draft choice, but got hit with the russian factor. This was also in a deep draft class last year so that alone is impressive. Now he could've easily hit top 15, but like the russian factor would insist, he could've probably have been late 1st again.

I wouldn't say Tambellini has done much to raise his stock, but I would say he would've been picked either a little higher in like the late 2nd round or exactly where he was originally picked.

Duclair with his play this year would most definitely be top 10 and maybe even top 5. The guy has already 50 goals and almost 100 points.

I will say that I feel that Ranger 6th rounder, Skapski, would definitely be a higher pick than the 6th round. I'd say somewhere in the 3rd round.

I don't know about top 15 for Buch. Top 25 possibly, but top 15 is pushing it.

As for Duclair, Trxjw pretty much sums up why Duclair would never have gone top 5. You already have 7 guys drafted last year currently playing in the NHL or dominating in the AHL (MacKinnon, Jones, Barkov, Nichushkin, Lindholm, Ristolainen, and Monahan). As much as I'm loving Duclair, there is no way in hell I'd prefer him over Drouin (that's 8). Then there are the likes of Horvat, Nurse, Zadarov, Lazar, Domi, and Mantha, whom any can be made an argument that they are better prospects than Duclair. Duclair would've probably gone anywhere from 12 to 16. Personally, I'd only put him ahead of Domi and Mantha...maybe Horvat. Considering we would've drafted 19th and we still got him in the mid-3rd round makes me go from 6 to midnight.

 

[Raspewtin]

I don't think Duclair would go in the top-10 if the draft was redone today. In no particular order:

MacKinnon
Jones
Drouin
Barkov
Lindholm
Monahan
Nichushkin
Ristolainen
Zadorov
Horvat
Lazar
Nurse

are all better prospects right now than Duclair, IMO. Duclair might sit in the next group with guys like Mantha, Rychel, Domi and Pulock. I think somewhere between 12-20 is a safe bet though. The production is great, but he's scoring a ton of his goals around the net. I don't think he's going to be able to be so potent in that area at the next level unless he puts on some serious muscle.

There's a slight chance he'd bump Nurse from the top 10, but you're right, wouldn't go top 10 in a redraft.

Probably 13th-14th. And that's pretty damn good for a 3rd rounder.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Calgary won 6-4 tonight but Tambellini was held off the score sheet.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

There's a slight chance he'd bump Nurse from the top 10, but you're right, wouldn't go top 10 in a redraft.

Probably 13th-14th. And that's pretty damn good for a 3rd rounder.

I doubt Nurse gets bumped. Edmonton is desperate for young horses on D. Nurse could play 30 minutes a night in a few years. It wasn't only BPA but based on need.

Still, the fact that Duclair was drafted with the lowest of all the third rounders and he's being talked about as a potential first rounder, job well done.

Also of interest is personally, I was pretty upset that the Rangers chose Ryan Graves over Jordan Subban. Graves is having an overall better season at both ends of the ice. Good stuff.

 

[Raspewtin]

I doubt Nurse gets bumped. Edmonton is desperate for young horses on D. Nurse could play 30 minutes a night in a few years. It wasn't only BPA but based on need.

Still, the fact that Duclair was drafted with the lowest of all the third rounders and he's being talked about as a potential first rounder, job well done.

Also of interest is personally, I was pretty upset that the Rangers chose Ryan Graves over Jordan Subban. Graves is having an overall better season at both ends of the ice. Good stuff.

Jordan Subban sucks. I liked the Graves pick but I REALLY wanted JI Diaby, who plays a similar game.

I'm very happy with Graves' year though.

 

[Ola]

I don't think Duclair would go in the top-10 if the draft was redone today. In no particular order:

MacKinnon
Jones
Drouin
Barkov
Lindholm
Monahan
Nichushkin
Ristolainen
Zadorov
Horvat
Lazar
Nurse

are all better prospects right now than Duclair, IMO. Duclair might sit in the next group with guys like Mantha, Rychel, Domi and Pulock. I think somewhere between 12-20 is a safe bet though. The production is great, but he's scoring a ton of his goals around the net. I don't think he's going to be able to be so potent in that area at the next level unless he puts on some serious muscle.

Mmmh, I don't got a great track of all these players. But it kind of show why its so tricky to participate in a NHL draft. Some of those names are doing well, but OTOH I am sure that there are a bunch of teams that don't like several of those players. I have no illusions about Mantha, but I would take him above Lindholm for example (not to mention several of the other names). I know that many teams would be sceptical of Zadorov. Horvat has not impressed me that much.

I am not saying that I know something you guys don't, but I would like to see more of Duclair before betting on that he even gets into the top 25...

 

[ArPanet]

I don't think Duclair would go in the top-10 if the draft was redone today. In no particular order:

MacKinnon
Jones
Drouin
Barkov
Lindholm
Monahan
Nichushkin
Ristolainen
Zadorov
Horvat
Lazar
Nurse

are all better prospects right now than Duclair, IMO. Duclair might sit in the next group with guys like Mantha, Rychel, Domi and Pulock. I think somewhere between 12-20 is a safe bet though. The production is great, but he's scoring a ton of his goals around the net. I don't think he's going to be able to be so potent in that area at the next level unless he puts on some serious muscle.

Gaborik scored a bunch from that area. Timing counts (almost) as much as muscle.

 

[ArPanet]

Not sure why people are comparing Tony D to MSC, Dawes or even Grachev. Just looking on youtube alone should put a stop to that. And yes, yt isn't the same as seeing a guy live over and over but surely it's superior to a raw stats compare.

 

[Trxjw]

Gaborik scored a bunch from that area. Timing counts (almost) as much as muscle.

There's a difference between sneaking into open ice around the net, and battling for loose pucks around the crease. Gaborik excelled at the former, but Duclair partakes in the latter.

 

[ArPanet]

Well, we all know DuClair will need to make a lot of adjustments to his game if he's going to stick...

 

[nyr2k2]

Skapper stopped 40 of 42 shots last night. Look at what he's done the past three months:

December: 3-5-1, 2.58, .929
January: 6-2-0, 2.66, .927
February: 8-1-0, 1.87, .940

This isn't because he plays on some awesome team, either. In those three months, he faced an average of 34 shots per game. He faced 30 or more shots in 18 of his 26 games and 40 or more shots 6 times. Twice he faced over 50 shots, and he won both of those games. He's on quite a run.

 

[NYR Viper]

Skapper stopped 40 of 42 shots last night. Look at what he's done the past three months:

December: 3-5-1, 2.58, .929
January: 6-2-0, 2.66, .927
February: 8-1-0, 1.87, .940

This isn't because he plays on some awesome team, either. In those three months, he faced an average of 34 shots per game. He faced 30 or more shots in 18 of his 26 games and 40 or more shots 6 times. Twice he faced over 50 shots, and he won both of those games. He's on quite a run.

He may be the first drafted goalie by the Rangers I have been excited for since Hank/Montoya

 

[Beacon]

He may be the first drafted goalie by the Rangers I have been excited for since Hank/Montoya

Between Talbot and Skapski, can we please now stop talking about the need to waste a top draft pick on a goalie, the most high risk position to draft? I am not opposed to drafting a goalie in the later rounds, but Talbot and Skapper give us enough depth not to freak out about it.

 

[Joey Bones]

I don't know about top 15 for Buch. Top 25 possibly, but top 15 is pushing it.

As for Duclair, Trxjw pretty much sums up why Duclair would never have gone top 5. You already have 7 guys drafted last year currently playing in the NHL or dominating in the AHL (MacKinnon, Jones, Barkov, Nichushkin, Lindholm, Ristolainen, and Monahan). As much as I'm loving Duclair, there is no way in hell I'd prefer him over Drouin (that's 8). Then there are the likes of Horvat, Nurse, Zadarov, Lazar, Domi, and Mantha, whom any can be made an argument that they are better prospects than Duclair. Duclair would've probably gone anywhere from 12 to 16. Personally, I'd only put him ahead of Domi and Mantha...maybe Horvat. Considering we would've drafted 19th and we still got him in the mid-3rd round makes me go from 6 to midnight.

Apologies, I reread what I was responding to and I was thinking where they would've been placed if they were in this year's draft class. I read it wrong, but if it were a redraft from 2013 then yes I'd agree with you solely.

Buchnevich would've been mid 2nd rounder, Tambellini in the same spot, and Duclair mid 1st rounder.

Between Talbot and Skapski, can we please now stop talking about the need to waste a top draft pick on a goalie, the most high risk position to draft? I am not opposed to drafting a goalie in the later rounds, but Talbot and Skapper give us enough depth not to freak out about it.

Agreed, anything after the 3rd round is a good time to start looking for goalies.