Blue Jays Discussion: 1B Chris Colabello tests positive for PEDs; Suspended 80 games by MLB

[Suntouchable13]

Martin is a very overrated offensive player. His career averages aren't THAT great. We saw one of his best years last year.

OK fine, but he is not this bad either. He should still be able to get you 15-20 bombs, 60-70 RBI with a .250 avg. He is not a 140 hitter with an OPS of .400. Does not matter whether you think he is overrated, he is not as bad as he looks right now.

 

[zeke]

Best offensive catchers over the last 5yrs (min 1000pa):

1. Posey 144wrc+
2. Lucroy 119wrc+
3. Grandal 119wrc+
4. Molina 115wrc+
5. Martin 109wrc+
6. Iannetta 108wrc+
7. Ruiz 106wrc+
8. Vogt 106wrc+
9. Salty 104wrc+
10. Navarro 103wrc+

Last 3yrs (min 500pa):

1. Posey 140wrc+
2. Cervelli 123wrc+
3. Mesoraco 122wrc+
4. Martin 118wrc+
5. Lucroy 116wrc+
6. Grandal 115wrc+
7. Vogt 114wrc+
8. D'Arnaud 110wrc+
9. Iannetta 105wrc+
10. Norris 101wrc+

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Love me some Francisco Cervelli.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Martin is a very overrated offensive player. His career averages aren't THAT great. We saw one of his best years last year.

Career averages in which categories, and whom exactly is\has been overrating him?

 

[Discoverer]

Martin is a very overrated offensive player. His career averages aren't THAT great. We saw one of his best years last year.

As zeke pointed out, he has a 109 wRC+ over the last five years. Last year, it was 114.

Last year was pretty much exactly what we should have expected of him.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I remember correctly, Cecil had a bad April last year and was great by June, if he still sucks in May then you can worry, but it'stoo early now.

I'm not worrying. I know he's going to turn it around. What I'm saying is when he does if as dominant as he was when he turned it around last year he's going to command big reliever money in free agency. I'm just saying maybe you can get him signed 2 or 3 years now cheaper based on his horrible start to the season. So it will be a steal when he actually returns to form.

 

[Canada4Gold]

as for the WAR that zeke posted. I'm assuming that's bWAR which is more results based, and not the fWAR which is more how well said player has pitched not taking into account luck(FIP based). Which is more useful in predicting how a player will perform moving forward than bWAR.

Because Dickey, and Cecil are both in the positive on fWAR.

 

[lebdafor norris]

I really like Martin but am worried about him at the plate. wRC+ of 1, walk and k rates doubled. .ISO down. I'll give him unil his 100 ab's then decide but unless he's injured again this is concerning.

I actually ended up checking fangraphs just to see if you made a typo error, geez, I know his been terrible at the plate but this is just brutal.

 

[Bad News Benning]

yup, looks like another one of AA's high upside fast risers. a whole bunch more of these kinds of guys waiting for short season ball to start.

there are some better ones coming for sure

Guadalupe Chavez
Jusin Maese
Yennsy Diaz
Hansel Rodriguez
Jose Espada

Looking forward to seeing some of these guys make there way to Vancouver at some point in the next year or two.

 

[Canada4Gold]

there are some better ones coming for sure

Guadalupe Chavez
Jusin Maese
Yennsy Diaz
Hansel Rodriguez
Jose Espada

Looking forward to seeing some of these guys make there way to Vancouver at some point in the next year or two.

I'm excited for Hollon too, though he's not in short season ball, but when his drug suspension ends probably Lansing. Based on my count May 10th his suspension ends.

 

[zeke]

as for the WAR that zeke posted. I'm assuming that's bWAR which is more results based, and not the fWAR which is more how well said player has pitched not taking into account luck(FIP based). Which is more useful in predicting how a player will perform moving forward than bWAR.

Because Dickey, and Cecil are both in the positive on fWAR.

pitchers i average ra9war and fwar (no bwar), hitters i average fwar and bwar.

 

[LaCarriere]

as for the WAR that zeke posted. I'm assuming that's bWAR which is more results based, and not the fWAR which is more how well said player has pitched not taking into account luck(FIP based). Which is more useful in predicting how a player will perform moving forward than bWAR.

Because Dickey, and Cecil are both in the positive on fWAR.

I'm not big on fWAR for Dickey, because he's constantly outpitched his FIP/xFIP pretty much every year, some years by half a run or more. I'm guessing this is mainly because of a lot of weak contact / ground balls generated from his knuckler. In his 3 years with the Mets before he came here, his ERA was anywhere from 0.5 to 0.8 runs lower than his FIP, and about 0.5 lower with the Jays. To be able to do this so consistently can't be ignored.

He's known for his slow starts, so I'm not too worried yet. If it's mid-June / early July and he still hasn't picked up then that's a different story.

He's bound to regress eventually due to age, and maybe this is the year, but that's really not because FIP (fWAR) is a better indicator of future performance than bWAR... that's just because he's getting old and eventually every player hits some sort of wall / performance drops off a cliff.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm not big on fWAR for Dickey, because he's constantly outpitched his FIP/xFIP pretty much every year, some years by half a run or more. I'm guessing this is mainly because of a lot of weak contact / ground balls generated from his knuckler. In his 3 years with the Mets before he came here, his ERA was anywhere from 0.5 to 0.8 runs lower than his FIP, and about 0.5 lower with the Jays. To be able to do this so consistently can't be ignored.

He's known for his slow starts, so I'm not too worried yet. If it's mid-June / early July and he still hasn't picked up then that's a different story.

He's bound to regress eventually due to age, and maybe this is the year, but that's really not because FIP (fWAR) is a better indicator of future performance than bWAR... that's just because he's getting old and eventually every player hits some sort of wall / performance drops off a cliff.

The point being though, Dickey's FIP has actually been good this year. the results(ERA) has suggested he's been bad, and he always starts bad, but this year he's started good FIP wise with bad results. Which is a little different.

Yeah even if he was doping terrible in fWAR as well as the bWAR propections zeke posted I wouldn't be concerned. But it's just bWAR(results) he's been bad in not fWAR too. That's more what I was saying.

fWAR might not mean much for Dickey when he usually outperforms it, so when the fWAR is actually good to start the year(4.12 FIP) that makes me think he's pitching well enough for an even better deserved ERA if he had outperformed it like he usually does. But that usually is after a full year because it\'s usually a bad start across the board.

 

[Paladin2799]

I'm not big on fWAR for Dickey, because he's constantly outpitched his FIP/xFIP pretty much every year, some years by half a run or more. I'm guessing this is mainly because of a lot of weak contact / ground balls generated from his knuckler. In his 3 years with the Mets before he came here, his ERA was anywhere from 0.5 to 0.8 runs lower than his FIP, and about 0.5 lower with the Jays. To be able to do this so consistently can't be ignored.

He's known for his slow starts, so I'm not too worried yet. If it's mid-June / early July and he still hasn't picked up then that's a different story.

He's bound to regress eventually due to age, and maybe this is the year, but that's really not because FIP (fWAR) is a better indicator of future performance than bWAR... that's just because he's getting old and eventually every player hits some sort of wall / performance drops off a cliff.

The good news is that if the jays are in the playoff picture, being in the last year of his contract makes him an easy bury if we he blows hard.

 

[LaCarriere]

The good news is that if the jays are in the playoff picture, being in the last year of his contract makes him an easy bury if we he blows hard.

If the Jays make the playoffs again, it's will be because Dickey starts seeing better results down the stretch.

I think Dickey will see better results, right now his BABIP is thru the roof at .353, whereas he's been around .260-.270 for the last few years.

The only number not in his favour right now is that his walk rate is up a bit. Strikeouts are up, ground ball rate is slightly up, HR/FB% is right around his career average, but his LOB% is way down at 53% compared to career average of 73%. That number with his BABIP just suggests the timing of the hits he's giving up are bad (not that he's giving up more hits), because his FIP isn't terrible at 4.12.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Alford back in Dunedin`s lineup today(didn`t get a hit but who cares, he`s healthy, got a walk)

 

[dredeye]

Alford back in Dunedin`s lineup today(didn`t get a hit but who cares, he`s healthy, got a walk)

Agreed. Very happy he's back

 

[Eyedea]

"Don't know how (Dyson) got away" - Gibbons on Sam Dyson being a former farmhand.

Well, AA DFA'ed him so they could add DeRosa to the roster.

 

[Lightsol]

"Don't know how (Dyson) got away" - Gibbons on Sam Dyson being a former farmhand.

Well, AA DFA'ed him so they could add DeRosa to the roster.

From some of the people who post in the comments sections of the various Toronto newspapers, you'd think that AA never made a mistake in his entire tenure.

Then again, the same people also claim that Shapiro is intentionally sabotaging this team so he can dismantle it later this year and turn it into Cleveland, and they claim the best proof of that is trading Ben Revere, so...

 

[canucksfan]

Dickey looked solid.

Bats sucked once again.

12th in avg. Last year 2nd. 7th in slugging and last year first by quite a bit. AL numbers. Not sure why the bats suck so far.

 

[Swervin81]

Well, Tulo so far doing his best 2011 Adam Dunn impression at the plate isn't helping.

 

[canucksfan]

Well, Tulo so far doing his best 2011 Adam Dunn impression at the plate isn't helping.

His bat worries me. He hasn't done well since coming to Toronto.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Time to sit Goins. Ryan's .160/.200/.235 slash line through 85 plate appearances is brutal
Smoak looks lost and has no power

Bring in Barney and Dominguez for a few

 

[shaner8989]

This team is just awful

Bullpen is just a joke
The offense is embarrassing

Time to move Bau and EE and retool.

 

[trellaine201]

This team is just awful

Bullpen is just a joke
The offense is embarrassing

Time to move Bau and EE and retool.

Good luck moving them . Both have No trades clauses.