GDT: #14 | Flyers at Lightning | Thursday, November 7, 2024 | 7:00 PM | ESPN+/Hulu

[deadhead]

No one thinks Buium is on Michkov's level as a prospect. We do not have to do this every time where we twist ourselves into pretzels to justify what they openly said out loud.

That's the point. They didn't think Buium was special, "rush to the podium and get your pick in."
They liked him but they also liked Luchanko
In three years we'll know if they mis-evaluated Luchanko or identified a rising talent.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I think they're very happy with Torts, for a number of reasons.

1) winning is not the goal, player development is, and Torts stresses fundamentals but has been very patient with the young players. Patience doesn't mean hands off, it means don't over react.
2) Torts is installing an up tempo, forechecking scheme similar to Carolina, that's what Briere wants, and he's drafting for it.
3) Torts does not suppress offense, Briere was an undersized offense first forward who maximized his talent, if he thought Torts was the issue on offense he'd step in. Briere understands offense far more than Holmgren or Hextall did.

I think they're pleasantly surprised with how much Torts has mellowed.
He's still honest to a fault, but his press conferences have been level headed, no tantrums, no attempts to strangle so-called "reporters."

They don't expect to contend until 2027-28 or so, if making the playoffs was a priority, Briere would have made some moves to improve their chances.

So, is that a yes he will be coaching next season?

Not if he doesn't have full say.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I think Briere's point was that he didn't fit what they were looking for in a D-man.
Think they value size (around the net) and speed/skating (to lead the rush out of the D-zone).

But if they really thought Buium was an elite player, they would have taken him.
Michkov is listed at 5'10 176 (EP), 5'10 190 (TC). That didn't stop them.

So it's more like yeah, he's better than the small D-men we have, but it would just upgrade without balancing our group. We can find guys like that in the future, but we've tried for a decade to find top six centers.

G (2006, moved to LW), Couts (2011, slow), Laughton (2012). Only center from the draft since is Frost.
They've patched for years, traded for B Schenn, LeCavelier, Weal, Lehtera, Filppula, signed White, PEB, drafted Patrick, signed Poehling, converted Cates.

And now we have Couts, who's looking like a top 6 center but is 32.
Frost, looking more like a 3C, Laughton (30) 3C/4C, Poehling and Cates 4C.
So I expect Briere to prioritize center in this draft.

Agree, that means they will probably not take the BPA. Whoever they take will be years away and contribute in any meaningful way bu 27/28 season when they want to "contend".

Personal attacks aren’t good ideas. We all have opinions that others disagree with. No need to rip on a poster.

What personal attack? Not sure where you come up with "ripping" on a poster from.

 

[deadhead]

Agree, that means they will probably not take the BPA. Whoever they take will be years away and contribute in any meaningful way bu 27/28 season when they want to "contend".


What personal attack? Not sure where you come up with "ripping" on a poster from.

BPA presumes a player is clearly better.

Teams tend to lump players in tiers of similarly valued players, b/c the difference within a tier is probably too small to be meaningful (you're often comparing apples and oranges). If you're using other criteria to choose within a tier, you're still going BPA.

Reaching is when you take a player from a lower tier.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

That's the point. They didn't think Buium was special, "rush to the podium and get your pick in."
They liked him but they also liked Luchanko
In three years we'll know if they mis-evaluated Luchanko or identified a rising talent.

That's not the point. Please listen to what I'm saying instead of telling me. There are two tiers of prospect for me between a Michkov and a Luchanko. Buium is on one of those two.

We won't know anything for sure in 3 years because development is not this reductive no matter how many times you say it is.

BPA presumes a player is clearly better.

Teams tend to lump players in tiers of similarly valued players, b/c the difference within a tier is probably too small to be meaningful (you're often comparing apples and oranges). If you're using other criteria to choose within a tier, you're still going BPA.

Reaching is when you take a player from a lower tier.

A clearly better prospect. Which he is. Someone picked in the 4th round could be the best player in a decade. That doesn't mean 100+ picks will have been mistakes. You operate with the best info you have, not one timeline hindsight.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think Briere's point was that he didn't fit what they were looking for in a D-man.

Considering this team's history with dmen, this is terrible news. Because we know that whatever it is they look for in dmen, is very very bad. And him not fitting that is great.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

The Flyers draft and build rosters focusing on filling roles. Once you fill that role, you no longer need to pay attention to that area. Rinse and repeat. They’ve been trying to fill the Ghost role since he left.

Believe them when they tell you that they didn’t look his direction because they already have “small” d-men in the system. That philosophy has matched their actions for years. Everything is built on roles and archetypes.

 

[Curufinwe]

It's only Provorov, Ellis, Sanheim, York, Yandle, Angelo, Zamula, Risto, and Drysdale that have been used as PP QBs since they ran Ghost out of town

 

[deadhead]

That's not the point. Please listen to what I'm saying instead of telling me. There are two tiers of prospect for me between a Michkov and a Luchanko. Buium is on one of those two.

We won't know anything for sure in 3 years because development is not this reductive no matter how many times you say it is.

If they thought the two players were in the same tier, then they made the right move.
That is, the strategy was correct (take the player who is a better fit), the question is whether their talent evaluation was correct.

Now I presume with video editors, scouts, etc. they put far more resources into talent evaluation than amateurs do. Whether they do so correctly? That's for time to tell.

My suspicion is they initially had Luchanko far lower, but after a closer look saw a kid filling out his body, maybe getting even faster (as he adds lower body strength) showing playmaking ability (with inferior linemates), etc. They may think he has the potential to further develop.

With Buium it's possible scouts looked at him and started to think he's a very good player but filled out early, a hard worker who maxed out his physical potential (think Provorov). So "what you see is what you get," which would explain why he dropped.

None of this means they're right. Projecting 18 year olds is a really difficult task

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If they thought the two players were in the same tier, then they made the right move.
That is, the strategy was correct (take the player who is a better fit), the question is whether their talent evaluation was correct.

Now I presume with video editors, scouts, etc. they put far more resources into talent evaluation than amateurs do. Whether they do so correctly? That's for time to tell.

My suspicion is they initially had Luchanko far lower, but after a closer look saw a kid filling out his body, maybe getting even faster (as he adds lower body strength) showing playmaking ability (with inferior linemates), etc. They may think he has the potential to further develop.

With Buium it's possible scouts looked at him and started to think he's a very good player but filled out early, a hard worker who maxed out his physical potential (think Provorov). So "what you see is what you get," which would explain why he dropped.

None of this means they're right. Projecting 18 year olds is a really difficult task

Potential is factored in when you’re making your tier list. What you’re saying here is counting it twice. It’s like when people insisted Xavier Worthy had to move up draft boards because he ran a great 40. We already knew he was fast. We already knew Luchanko was young.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Draft for fit when everything but RW is a need is a terrible strategy.

 

[volnoir]

If they thought the two players were in the same tier, then they made the right move.
That is, the strategy was correct (take the player who is a better fit), the question is whether their talent evaluation was correct.

No then they still made the wrong move. This years draft is C heavy, last years draft was D heavy. In those specific scenarios you will almost always have a prospect who is very good fall. In this D heavy draft it was Buium. They should have picked him with the knowledge that next year they can get their 1C prospect in a C heavy draft (having 3 1st round picks no less).

 

[deadhead]

Potential is factored in when you’re making your tier list. What you’re saying here is counting it twice. It’s like when people insisted Xavier Worthy had to move up draft boards because he ran a great 40. We already knew he was fast. We already knew Luchanko was young.

No. What I'm saying is by May or June, when they did their final evaluation, they had them in the same tier, and potential is what bridged the gap between their on ice performance. Jett is 8 months younger than Buium, and was still filling out at 17. So they would have given potential more weight with him. Since they're projecting, they probably put as much weight on improvement between October and April as overall performance.

Buium's last 10 games in 2023-24: 2-4 6. Includes 6 PO games. Toughest stretch of his season.
Don't know how Jett played his last 10-20 games.

No then they still made the wrong move. This years draft is C heavy, last years draft was D heavy. In those specific scenarios you will almost always have a prospect who is very good fall. In this D heavy draft it was Buium. They should have picked him with the knowledge that next year they can get their 1C prospect in a C heavy draft (having 3 1st round picks no less).

But that rules against reaching for a center as an explanation.
Since they'd have another shot at the apple.

 

[BernieParent]

Me in the game predictor thread to date:

 

[VladDrag]

Tampa going easy in the shootout sums up @VladDrag breakaway attempt last night

Eh, it was 11:30 at night we were 7-2 with 4 mins left. Ididn’t want to embarrass them

 

[JojoTheWhale]

No. What I'm saying is by May or June, when they did their final evaluation, they had them in the same tier, and potential is what bridged the gap between their on ice performance. Jett is 8 months younger than Buium, and was still filling out at 17. So they would have given potential more weight with him. Since they're projecting, they probably put as much weight on improvement between October and April as overall performance.

Buium's last 10 games in 2023-24: 2-4 6. Includes 6 PO games. Toughest stretch of his season.
Don't know how Jett played his last 10-20 games.

Every time you explain this it gets worse. Now we're prioritizing narrow bands of play and assuming growth.

This process is shit. I'm sorry. It's smartest guy in the room syndrome.

 

[BernieParent]

No then they still made the wrong move. This years draft is C heavy, last years draft was D heavy. In those specific scenarios you will almost always have a prospect who is very good fall. In this D heavy draft it was Buium. They should have picked him with the knowledge that next year they can get their 1C prospect in a C heavy draft (having 3 1st round picks no less).

Sorry for my pedantry but the Flyers only had 2 picks, with them flipping Edmonton's 2024 pick to this year. It is looking good early for them to get a much better spot than 31st.

 

[renberg]

None of this means they're right. Projecting 18 year olds is a really difficult task

Very true but certain skill levels have to be present in a prospect. In this case, the ability to score. Luchanko doesn’t seem to have a signature shot. In Juniors, to a degree, a player can get away with that deficiency with speed and size. After that level, no chance. Perhaps Briere& Co. think that he can be taught that. I’m not so sure that it can happen.

 

[deadhead]

Every time you explain this it gets worse. Now we're prioritizing narrow bands of play and assuming growth.

This process is shit. I'm sorry. It's smartest guy in the room syndrome.

No. I don't know how they made their decision.

But you either have to assume Briere took a clearly inferior player just b/c he wanted a center, or they really liked Jett. We know they liked Jett more than Helenius.

Now whether they should have ranked Jett that high (or Buium that low) is a different question.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

No. I don't know how they made their decision.

But you either have to assume Briere took a clearly inferior player just b/c he wanted a center, or they really liked Jett. We know they liked Jett more than Helenius.

Now whether they should have ranked Jett that high (or Buium that low) is a different question.

Or the man answered a question honestly and then tried to walk it back the next day because he realized it did him no favors to say it. One of those seems a hell of a lot simpler than the rest.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

No then they still made the wrong move. This years draft is C heavy, last years draft was D heavy. In those specific scenarios you will almost always have a prospect who is very good fall. In this D heavy draft it was Buium. They should have picked him with the knowledge that next year they can get their 1C prospect in a C heavy draft (having 3 1st round picks no less).

This makes too much sense so naturally the Flyers will do the opposite

 

[FLYguy3911]

Jett's went goalless in his last 16 games (no playoffs) with Guelph so we can throw that theory out the window.