Anything more than 4.5M x 4 for a bottom pairing D is stupidity.
It’s quite clear by his usage after he settled and in the playoffs that his role if he stayed in Vancouver wouldn’t even be remotely equal to a “bottom pairing D”. Whether or not you believe he can continue to excel higher up is certainly debatable. But he’s going to get paid and he’s certainly going to start off getting played like a high-level middle pairing guy.
All these things can be true at once:
- He played #3 type defenseman minutes for the Canucks in the playoffs and was an imposing and impactful presence. This is an indisputable fact.
- The fact that he did it in the playoffs and plays a such a heavy game while being an very mobile skater makes him a very sought commodity especially with a number of teams seemingly lacking in rugged, post-season type blueliners who also aren’t completely immobile turnstyles.
- He has flashed high levels before…not so dramatically or in such an important playoff role…but the flashes have been there. He was a high pick for very good reasons.
- He has seemingly crumbled back into an unreliable, poor decision making blueliner when handed extended auditions higher up, prior to this one, and has usually settled back into that third pair usage because keeping him out too many minutes has been a recipe for disaster.
- While 29 is not young and his track record is what it is - it’s definitely not inconceivable that he has simply matured at this point as a decision maker and combined with his huge size and athletic ability - he’s peaking at a slightly later point than some of his peers.
It’s all about risk/reward assessment. Personally, I’m more interested in looking forward. Brett Pesce and Nikita Zadorov are both 29 year-old blueliners who are going to get big money and big years on the open market this summer. Pesce’s career blows Zadorov so far out of the water it’s not even a comparison. Pesce has also seemingly lost a step recently and there are signs that wear and tear is catching up with him. If both of them want 5x5 or 6x6 or something extremely high and I was in a position that I had to pay one of them in a vacuum to add as an investment - I’d put aside by bias for Pesce’s name and history and pick Zadorov. I think athletically, physically he’s going to age better and I think at this point his peak is better. Both would be extremely risky deals but you pay to play in free agency.
I don’t discount the notion that Zadorov could melt back into a 16-17 minute a night depth guy. Certainly possible. I know he’s certainly going to get overpaid, especially by HfB standards where nearly every summer UFA signing is met by outrage. But…I think there’s also reason to be bullish on him too, if you’ve got the money to spend and a need.