Zach Werenski should be considered for the Norris?

[Avsfan1921]

Are we so sure of that? Makar has 4 more points and is the third highest point getter on his team, with 2 of the top 3 highest guys in the league leading the way. Werenski is the #1 play driver on the entire team, a team that was expected to be a lottery team, not contending for a cup like Colorado.

If Makar finishes with ahead with sizable gap between them, sure. But if it's tight? I think Werenski gets the nod.

If Makar doesn’t widen the gap, I’d be A-ok with Werenski winning just for the feel good story it would be, not to take away from the great year he’s having.

 

[CBJx614]

Two huge game tying goals tonight.

 

[CBJx614]

 

[JoeSakic13]

He should be a finalist, but (if it was awarded today) not win it.

Makar and Hughes are still well ahead of him. It’s unfortunate he doesn’t have a linemate like they do, but it’s still Cale and Quinn’s to lose.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Hart Trophy

 

[Vasilevskiy]

If he keeps this up arguably deserves to win it, what a crazy good season

 

[GoJackets1]

He should be a finalist, but (if it was awarded today) not win it.

Makar and Hughes are still well ahead of him. It’s unfortunate he doesn’t have a linemate like they do, but it’s still Cale and Quinn’s to lose.

Werenski is tied with Makar for points, and now leads him in goals by 2 with one less game played. Please explain how Makar is “still well ahead”. If you mean in the popularity contest that the Norris vote will actually be, then I agree. But if it wasn’t purely name recognition, it would at least be very close.

 

[Golden_Jet]

He’s right there with the others, I said in the other threads he was being overlooked.

 

[Boonk]

Its a deadheat race between Hughes and Werenski for the Norris at this point. If Columbus manages to sneak their way to the dance while Vancouver continues to spiral, Werenski is taking it. Best player on the ice for Columbus and tilts the game in their favour every time hes out there.

 

[Crede777]

A month ago I said if the season ended that day he'd be a finalist but not win.

I've changed my mind and now, if the season ended, I do think he would win. He is: T-#1 Points for a defenseman, #1 Goals for a defenseman, and #1 TOI/G for a defenseman. You could argue that, when accounting for games played, Hughes jumps out in front. That would be correct. However, at the end of the season, they typically don't account for games played. If anything, missing games hurts players in Norris discussions. So that's why I think Werenski would win.

 

[sr edler]

Would be a good time for a D to win the Hart again.

 

[Rowlet]

He's passed Makar for Norris in my books, but Hughes' possession numbers are still way better, similarly if a defenseman is going to win the Hart, I still don't see an argument for Werenski over Hughes.

As good as Werenski has been, his numbers are being propped up by the Monahan line somewhat, while Hughes makes every line better.

 

[John Mandalorian]

He should be in the Hart discussion along with other non forwards like Hellebuyck, Makar, Hughes, and Fox.

 

[Lt Dan]

He should be in the Hart discussion along with other non forwards like Hellebuyck, Makar, Hughes, and Fox.

This is the way

 

[S1N4TR4]

View attachment 961612

Z has the most points out of anyone across the entire league in their last 10 games played. goodness

 

[SteelCityCannon]

As good as Werenski has been, his numbers are being propped up by the Monahan line somewhat, while Hughes makes every line better.

That's a tough sell to me when not only is he leading the league in TOI but he's on pace to high the highest TOI in 6 seasons overall. He's on the ice ALOT, not just with the top line.

If you play that card, you can discredit Makar for playing with MacKinnon too. Equally silly. They're all monsters in their own right.

 

[Cowumbus]

He's passed Makar for Norris in my books, but Hughes' possession numbers are still way better, similarly if a defenseman is going to win the Hart, I still don't see an argument for Werenski over Hughes.

As good as Werenski has been, his numbers are being propped up by the Monahan line somewhat, while Hughes makes every line better.

lol is this sarcasm?

Here’s a goal playing with those guys last night. Oh wait Monahan, is hurt, and Werenski did it all himself…


Jack Johnson, Justin Danforth and Mathieu Olivier are the only guys on the Jackets who have a better CF% without Werenski vs with him.

Werenski is playing 26+ mins every night alongside Dante Fabbro (waiver pickup), not Filip Hronek.

5v5 Werenski has more goals, first assists, and secondary assists than Hughes. So again, Werenski is getting propped up by 1 line, despite playing more, with a worse D partner, and on a worse team?

 

[Dumais]

That's a tough sell to me when not only is he leading the league in TOI but he's on pace to high the highest TOI in 6 seasons overall. He's on the ice ALOT, not just with the top line.

If you play that card, you can discredit Makar for playing with MacKinnon too. Equally silly. They're all monsters in their own right.

I think the entire team is propping him up lol I guess that's a problem....leading the team.

He's 3 away from being tied in goals, leads in assists and points. He's constantly looking to jump in the play with any forward line. And everyone on the team knows to get it to him. It's absolutely fantastic to watch. A very sneak two way player that looks for opportunities in the offensive zone.

 

[CBJx614]

He's passed Makar for Norris in my books, but Hughes' possession numbers are still way better, similarly if a defenseman is going to win the Hart, I still don't see an argument for Werenski over Hughes.

As good as Werenski has been, his numbers are being propped up by the Monahan line somewhat, while Hughes makes every line better.

You don't see how Werenski has a better case? None whatsoever?

 

[Rowlet]

That's a tough sell to me when not only is he leading the league in TOI but he's on pace to high the highest TOI in 6 seasons overall. He's on the ice ALOT, not just with the top line.

If you play that card, you can discredit Makar for playing with MacKinnon too. Equally silly. They're all monsters in their own right.

I do discredit Makar very often, his numbers without MacKinnon are abysmal, Hughes on the other hand increases everyone on his team's possession numbers by 10%+

Above is since the start of the 23-24 season. Since then Makar has not been able to play passable hockey at 5v5 when MacKinnon isn't on the ice. The average of all Avalanche not named Makar or MacKinnon on the ice averages out to be about 51%, but Makar is 45% or below.

MacKinnon actually cooled off somewhat this year, but over the past two years the removal of Makar only weakens his numbers by about 2%, while Makar's go down by over 10%.

Hughes on the other hand is the complete opposite, he absolutely carries Pettersson and Miller.

Werenski's also go down without Monahan, who manages to stay above water even without Werenski, though not even close to the same degree. Monahan's possession numbers go down by about 2-3%, however Werenski's drop by about 8%.

lol is this sarcasm?

Here’s a goal playing with those guys last night. Oh wait Monahan, is hurt, and Werenski did it all himself…


Jack Johnson, Justin Danforth and Mathieu Olivier are the only guys on the Jackets who have a better CF% without Werenski vs with him.

Werenski is playing 26+ mins every night alongside Dante Fabbro (waiver pickup), not Filip Hronek.

5v5 Werenski has more goals, first assists, and secondary assists than Hughes. So again, Werenski is getting propped up by 1 line, despite playing more, with a worse D partner, and on a worse team?

You're asking the wrong question, of course basically everyone will have better possession stats with Werenski than away from him, he's very good.

The real question, who on the Jackets pushes possession the most, relative to their teammates, regardless of who is on the ice with them, and the answer to that is the Monahan line, as shown above.

As for the rest of your arguments, Hronek has been injured most of the season, and Hughes has been playing with exclusively #6 dmen for the past 20 games. As for worse teams, the Jackets are ahead of the Canucks in the standings and have scored more goals, and here's the Canucks without Hughes.

If you're still not convinced, here's Hughes and Hronek separated, looks like Fabbro, without Werenski, is still playing better than Hronek is this year, when Hughes isn't on the ice.

You don't see how Werenski has a better case? None whatsoever?

Give me some numbers to show how he's been better than Hughes outside of just points and I'll listen, I'm not interested in attention seeking blowhards on a podcast.

 

[Dumais]

The real question, who on the Jackets pushes possession the most, relative to their teammates, regardless of who is on the ice with them, and the answer to that is the Monahan line.

So three blue jackets > Werenski = Hughes is better?

I'm not good with stats, I know; I shouldn't be posting on HFboards. But I really don't understand how a player makes his team better (Hughes) when they all have a +/- in the negative and all of them having bad years. While everyone on CBJ is having career years and i bet all of them would say Werenski is a big part of it. You act like Werenski is in the same situation as Makar, who has a couple elite forwards, I can understand that comparison, but CBJ doesn't have Elite forwards to form a true #1 line. If players like Marchenko, KJ, Voronkov & Fantilli score over 50points, it will be the first time in their careers.

 

[majormajor]

So three blue jackets > Werenski = Hughes is better?

I'm not good with stats, I know; I shouldn't be posting on HFboards. But I really don't understand how a player makes his team better (Hughes) when they all have a +/- in the negative and all of them having bad years.

They have a plus with him and a minus without him.

While everyone on CBJ is having career years and i bet all of them would say Werenski is a big part of it.

The issue is that those three forwards are plus with or without Werenski.

 

[Rowlet]

So three blue jackets > Werenski = Hughes is better?

I'm not good with stats, I know; I shouldn't be posting on HFboards. But I really don't understand how a player makes his team better (Hughes) when they all have a +/- in the negative and all of the having bad years. While everyone on CBJ is having career years and i bet all of them would say Werenski is a big part of it. You act like Werenski is in the same situation as Makar, who has a couple elite forwards, I can understand that comparison, but CBJ doesn't have Elite forwards to form a true #1 line. If players like Marchenko, KJ, Voronkov & Fantilli score over 50points, it will be their first time in their career.

Okay, I'll break it down more since you seem genuine, and my post is extremely long and has a ton of info, I even edited to add more before you quoted it, but this one will be long too.

Corsi, Fenwick, and xGF are measurements used to see who controls the flow of the game, this is usually done by measuring shots for/against (corsi), unblocked shots for/against (fenwick) and probability of shots resulting in goals using danger level and historical shot data (xG).

We're going to ignore +/- because it's not very good at predicting future hockey stats, if your goalie is worse your +/- will be worse, but the above stats don't consider actual goals, just what is most likely to lead to a goal.

Firstly, while Werenski DOES benefit from ice time with Monahan, it's nowhere close to the degree that Makar benefits from MacKinnon (chart 1), Werenski has actually been much better than Makar this year! Secondly, you'll notice in the stats I posted, none of them mentioned actual points. I'm only concerned with shots taken on the ice while Werenski is out there.

The third chart I posted says every 100 shots taken (corsi) when Monahan (I only used him to represent his line) is on the ice without Werenski, 53 of them are taken by the Blue Jackets while 47 of them are taken by the other team, but when it's the other way around, the Blue Jackets only take 48.7 of every 100 shots. It's a similar number for unblocked shots (fenwick) and expected goals (xG%). When Hughes is on the ice, even without Pettersson or Miller, the Canucks regularly take 60 out of every 100 shots, which is an absurd percentage.

Yes, you are correct that Werenski is a huge part of CBJ's success, however even among CBJ players, he isn't the most effective at tilting the game in favour of their team. The Monahan line is the only line that can effectively (more than 50%) control the flow of the game no matter who is on the ice. This isn't to say that Werenski is bad or inneffective, he is better than the CBJ average so he's not a detriment.

This is all to say that while Werenski is extremely good, Quinn Hughes is a generational talent at controlling the flow of the game. Werenski's possession stats are about 5% higher than his teammates average, but Hughes' stats are regularly over 16% higher relative to his teammates.

For reference, McDavid, Draisaitl, Kucherov, are all about 7%, and Werenski is just outside of that range, which is extremely good, but Hughes controls the flow of the game like no other player in the league.

 

[Dumais]

Stats are weird, so is the reverse true?

Hypothetical
If Werenski gets injured, no big deal.
If Hughes gets injured, guarantee 32nd.

 

[majormajor]

Okay, I'll break it down more since you seem genuine, and my post is extremely long and has a ton of info, I even edited to add more before you quoted it, but this one will be long too.

Corsi, Fenwick, and xGF are measurements used to see who controls the flow of the game, this is usually done by measuring shots for/against (corsi), unblocked shots for/against (fenwick) and probability of shots resulting in goals using danger level and historical shot data (xG).

We're going to ignore +/- because it's not very good at predicting future hockey stats, if your goalie is worse your +/- will be worse, but the above stats don't consider actual goals, just what is most likely to lead to a goal.

Firstly, while Werenski DOES benefit from ice time with Monahan, it's nowhere close to the degree that Makar benefits from MacKinnon (chart 1), Werenski has actually been much better than Makar this year! Secondly, you'll notice in the stats I posted, none of them mentioned actual points. I'm only concerned with shots taken on the ice while Werenski is out there.

The third chart I posted says every 100 shots taken (corsi) when Monahan (I only used him to represent his line) is on the ice without Werenski, 53 of them are taken by the Blue Jackets while 47 of them are taken by the other team, but when it's the other way around, the Blue Jackets only take 48.7 of every 100 shots. It's a similar number for unblocked shots (fenwick) and expected goals (xG%). When Hughes is on the ice, even without Pettersson or Miller, the Canucks regularly take 60 out of every 100 shots, which is an absurd percentage.

Yes, you are correct that Werenski is a huge part of CBJ's success, however even among CBJ players, he isn't the most effective at tilting the game in favour of their team. The Monahan line is the only line that can effectively (more than 50%) control the flow of the game no matter who is on the ice. This isn't to say that Werenski is bad or inneffective, he is better than the CBJ average so he's not a detriment.

This is all to say that while Werenski is extremely good, Quinn Hughes is a generational talent at controlling the flow of the game. Werenski's possession stats are about 5% higher than his teammates average, but Hughes' stats are regularly over 16% higher relative to his teammates.

For reference, McDavid, Draisaitl, Kucherov, are all about 7%, and Werenski is just outside of that range, which is extremely good, but Hughes controls the flow of the game like no other player in the league.

You're right about controlling possession, and that is our best guess about how goal results will end up in the long run. But all of these players are elite scorers too, and at the end of the season they should be judged on their goals results, so GF - GA not xGF - xGA.