Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Draft is June 28th @ 4pm PT. ESPN. ESPN+)

[robbieboy3686]

Solid post but let me offer a counter argument...

This is a draft where - except for possibly Demidov - there really isn't a player who is worthy of being taken at 3OA. Every player beyond Celebrini has warts and no one really stands out as being head and shoulders above the rest. As such, I don't think GMPV will really find that other GM's willing to give up solid assets to move up unless Demidov is available at 3OA. Could a trade happen? Sure. Is it likely? Not IMO.

Although Silayev is an LHD, he has played the right side quite a bit in the KHL so I don't think him shooting left handed will factor into the decision. If it does then Levshunov has to be their pick but he just doesn't strike me as a PV type of player (in the same way that the Ducks took Carlsson over Fantilli last year).

PV has demonstrated in his drafting with the Ducks that he is building a specific type of team. The team will be in the mold of Florida or Vegas. Big and physical are priorities. How else to explain the selections of guys like Gaucher and Myatovic as high picks when there were smaller and more talented players still on the board? The Ducks D right now consists mostly of offensive style D who are average both in height and defensive ability. Much like picking Gaucher, I think PV would love a guy like Silayev and see him as a perfect fit on D. His offensive upside would be gravy if it develops. I really don't see him picking Buium or Parekh (redundant in the system), Yakemchuk (even less worthy of 3OA than Silayev). Dickinson is a possibility but he is a pure LHD which - as you noted - creates a real log jam on that side.

IMO, PV will likely be choosing from Levshunov, Lindstrom, Silayev, and maybe Iginla. He'll be looking for fit and how much they can impact the roster. I think taking a potential premier defensive D who skates extremely well and has the potential to chip in offensively is just as attractive as anyone else available at 3OA. Every team will see this draft differently but I think that's how PV will look at it. I'm not a fan of Levshunov. Lindstrom could be a good selection but comes with risk and I think he is a 2nd line player in the NHL. Iginla is tempting but is he really a 3OA selection?

You are correct that SIlayev doesn't fit the standard offensive profile of a 3OA pick but this is a draft where NO ONE fits that profile (assuming Demidov goes 2OA). Silayev is IMO the one player who could justify the 3OA slot when we look back at this draft five years from now and that is why I hope the Ducks pick him.

+1000

 

[WhatTheDuck]

The objection is the draft slot, a 3rd round pick. As previously shared, Dostal posted a far better production in his D+0 season, also in a U20 league from across the pond. Hell, Suchanek posted better numbers in what should have been his D+0 season and he went completely undrafted a few times and just signed as a FA.

Again, a third round pick for a goalie with tools and size (6'4), but without very good production in the USHL is an unwarranted risk, especially when considering how deep we are in net at the moment: Dostal (2018, Rd 3), Clang (2020, Rd 3), Suchanek (UDFA), Alexander(2021, Rd 5), Buteyets (2022, Rd 6), and Clara (2023, Rd 2).

It's a down year for goalies b/c CSB ranks Yegorov #1 overall in their goalie list for NA. If he's coming off the board in the middle of the 3rd round in a fan mock, then it reiterates it's a bad year for goalies despite all who hoot and hollering for him. We still have a 4th and a 6th round pick.

Omaha Lancers (USHL) goalie productions this year:

View attachment 874308

6'4" Yegorov is the goalie being pumped up. CSB ranking is based upon their projection of where the prospect can be in the future.

Hendrickson only got 7 games in b/c he had just finished playing out his high school season. Kam has the same amount of shutouts as Yegorov in the USHL, but Kam notched 7 shutouts in high school this season as well. Kam is 2" shorter than Yegorov. On the CSB (NA) goalie list, Kam ranks 32nd. Probably not enough burn at the USHL level to have a solid scouting report. Team US had him on the U18 Hlinka cup, implying he's at least on the radar.

Interesting, a goalie can be a captain at high school level.

View attachment 874310

"Hoot and hollering"...."being pumped up"....lol just incapable of disagreeing without massive hyperbole.

A "down year" for goalies does not suggest that any available need to be avoided like the plague. There are no goalies in this draft being hyped up as potential first or likely second rounders. Like any draft there are several intriguing options once you get to the middle rounds. You can't name a recent draft where there weren't multiple goalies gone by the pick in question here. Even in a weaker goalie year, there are always goalies getting picked by late second round. So absolutely not a stretch to have the top ranked CSB goalie going after the mid point in the third.

The entire basis of your argument is that he can't possibly be as good as he's ranked due to his stats, and I don't think you are really grasping the silliness in that. Teams employ scouts for a reason, there is far more to judging 17 year old hockey players than just numbers. If it was a simple as you're trying to make it out to be, teams would save millions on scouting.

All third rounders are complete dart throws, the last time we picked at this exact position we landed Blake McLaughlin. There are all basically projects by mid third round. You are reacting like someone suggested we use one of our first rounders on a goalie.

 

[lwvs84]

The only way I move back is if the scouts view several guys as interchangeable. If scouts see 4 guys that they like evenly, trade back to 5 at most. If there is a ranking (even if the tie breaker is position), stay at 3 and guarantee the guy you want. If arguable BPA is a position of need, you do that every time.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Amongst those in consideration at 3, which is/are most likely to have an impact in the NHL the coming season?

 

[Terry Yake]

Amongst those in consideration at 3, which is/are most likely to have an impact in the NHL the coming season?

i would say silayev more than anyone considering his play in the KHL as a 17 year old

 

[tomd]

i would say silayev more than anyone considering his play in the KHL as a 17 year old

I would agree but Silayev is under contract for another two years.

 

[Hinterland]

Solid post but let me offer a counter argument...

This is a draft where - except for possibly Demidov - there really isn't a player who is worthy of being taken at 3OA. Every player beyond Celebrini has warts and no one really stands out as being head and shoulders above the rest. As such, I don't think GMPV will really find that other GM's willing to give up solid assets to move up unless Demidov is available at 3OA. Could a trade happen? Sure. Is it likely? Not IMO.

Although Silayev is an LHD, he has played the right side quite a bit in the KHL so I don't think him shooting left handed will factor into the decision. If it does then Levshunov has to be their pick but he just doesn't strike me as a PV type of player (in the same way that the Ducks took Carlsson over Fantilli last year).

PV has demonstrated in his drafting with the Ducks that he is building a specific type of team. The team will be in the mold of Florida or Vegas. Big and physical are priorities. How else to explain the selections of guys like Gaucher and Myatovic as high picks when there were smaller and more talented players still on the board? The Ducks D right now consists mostly of offensive style D who are average both in height and defensive ability. Much like picking Gaucher, I think PV would love a guy like Silayev and see him as a perfect fit on D. His offensive upside would be gravy if it develops. I really don't see him picking Buium or Parekh (redundant in the system), Yakemchuk (even less worthy of 3OA than Silayev). Dickinson is a possibility but he is a pure LHD which - as you noted - creates a real log jam on that side.

IMO, PV will likely be choosing from Levshunov, Lindstrom, Silayev, and maybe Iginla. He'll be looking for fit and how much they can impact the roster. I think taking a potential premier defensive D who skates extremely well and has the potential to chip in offensively is just as attractive as anyone else available at 3OA. Every team will see this draft differently but I think that's how PV will look at it. I'm not a fan of Levshunov. Lindstrom could be a good selection but comes with risk and I think he is a 2nd line player in the NHL. Iginla is tempting but is he really a 3OA selection?

You are correct that SIlayev doesn't fit the standard offensive profile of a 3OA pick but this is a draft where NO ONE fits that profile (assuming Demidov goes 2OA). Silayev is IMO the one player who could justify the 3OA slot when we look back at this draft five years from now and that is why I hope the Ducks pick him.

Silayev is highly unlikely to justify a 3rd overall pick because he never scored at any level. He's very likely to justify a 5-10 pick but that's not quite what the Ducks are looking for. I don't recall a player like Silayev getting drafted 3rd overall. Like ever.

There are lots of prospects available who do have the tools to justify a 3rd overall pick. Are they higher risk than Silayev? Absolutely but unless the Ducks are able to do a trade then I feel like that's a risk they should take. If they're unwilling to do it then the Ducks gotta go with Dickinson instead. Not quite as big and physical as Silayev but some more offense, more dynamic with the puck. Still a poor pick for a 3rd overall in my book but at least a player with a bit more offensive upside and more of a track record when it comes to generating offense.

I'll repeat that I think the Ducks will and should go with a forward or a RHD anyway...and the most gifted players in this draft are definitely RHD's and forwards anyway...with Buium being the lone exception.

I'm not a fan of drafting players expecting then to play them on their offside in the NHL. No matter where they played in their draft season this is a bad plan. This is something that can be tried over time but there's no guarantee it's gonna work. NHL is different than any other league.


Of course if the Ducks feel that Silayev is significantly better than everybody else then they're gonna draft him but I don't think they're keen on using an early pick on yet another LHD.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Maybe Silayev could become really good on his offside like Beauch was, a one timer slap shot on his offside could be a real weapon. Beauch did have an effective slapshot when he played more offensively that he fired from playing on his offside. Was he playing on his offside in the KHL ?

 

[tomd]

Silayev is highly unlikely to justify a 3rd overall pick because he never scored at any level. He's very likely to justify a 5-10 pick but that's not quite what the Ducks are looking for. I don't recall a player like Silayev getting drafted 3rd overall. Like ever.

There are lots of prospects available who do have the tools to justify a 3rd overall pick. Are they higher risk than Silayev. Absolutely but unless you're able to do a trade that's a risk you gotta take if you're the Ducks. If you're unwilling to do it then the Ducks gotta go with Dickinson. Not quite as big and physical as Silayev but significantly more offense, more dynamic with the puck. Still a poor pick for a 3rd overall in my book but at least a player with a bit more offensive upside and more of a track record when it comes to generating offense.

I'll repeat that I think the Ducks will and should go with a forward or a RHD anyway...and the most gifted players in this draft are definitely RHD's and forwards anyway...with Buium being the lone exception.

I'm not a fan of drafting players expecting then to play them on their offside in the NHL. No matter where they played in their draft season this is a bad plan. This is something that can be tried over time but there's no guarantee it's gonna work. NHL is different than any other league.


Of course if the Ducks feel that Silayev is significantly better than everybody else then they're gonna draft him but I don't think they're keen on using an early pick on yet another LHD.

You are acting like Silayev would be a reach at 3OA. I don’t believe that and neither do many others.

McKenzie has him as third best prospect

CSB has him as #1 euro ahead of Demidov

Wheeler/pronman just did a mock where he was picked 3OA.

Kimmelman/Morreale recently did a mock on NHL.com and both agreed that Silayev would be taken 3IA.

If PV believes that Silayev is the unicorn that others say he is and that he fills a tremendous hole in their roster construction then they’ll take him. There is little difference in this draft between 3 and 10.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

You are acting like Silayev would be a reach at 3OA. I don’t believe that and neither do many others.

McKenzie has him as third best prospect

CSB has him as #1 euro ahead of Demidov

Wheeler/pronman just did a mock where he was picked 3OA.

Kimmelman/Morreale recently did a mock on NHL.com and both agreed that Silayev would be taken 3IA.

If PV believes that Silayev is the unicorn that others say he is and that he fills a tremendous hole in their roster construction then they’ll take him. There is little difference in this draft between 3 and 10.

There is even a chance that Chicago could take him at #2, even with how good Demidov would look next to Bedard they may see higher upside in Silayev as a Dman and create a future Korchinski/Silayev pairing with Silayev on his offside. As a bonus, Silayev will probably mold into the player who stands up for Bedard given Silayev's mean streak and size. Chicago picked Korchinski way ahead of where he was supposed to go I thought so maybe they do the same here.

 

[Beckett]

Maybe Silayev could become really good on his offside like Beauch was, a one timer slap shot on his offside could be a real weapon. Beauch did have an effective slapshot when he played more offensively that he fired from playing on his offside. Was he playing on his offside in the KHL ?

I watched 4-5 KHL games and most of the MHL playoffs, he was at RD every game.

 

[Hinterland]

You are acting like Silayev would be a reach at 3OA. I don’t believe that and neither do many others.

McKenzie has him as third best prospect

CSB has him as #1 euro ahead of Demidov

Wheeler/pronman just did a mock where he was picked 3OA.

Kimmelman/Morreale recently did a mock on NHL.com and both agreed that Silayev would be taken 3IA.

If PV believes that Silayev is the unicorn that others say he is and that he fills a tremendous hole in their roster construction then they’ll take him. There is little difference in this draft between 3 and 10.

We'll see how it shakes out. I'm just saying that a player with almost zero scoring at any level has probably never been taken 3rd overall in an NHL draft. So that would be quite the interesting pick, especially after all the moaning about Reinbacher getting taken 5th overall. Also, another high profile LHD is definitely the last thing the Ducks need.

 

[ScarTroy]

We'll see how it shakes out. I'm just saying that a player with almost zero scoring at any level has probably never been taken 3rd overall in an NHL draft. So that would be quite the interesting pick, especially after all the moaning about Reinbacher getting taken 5th overall. Also, another high profile LHD is definitely the last thing the Ducks need.

The moaning about Reinbacher wasn’t because of him, it’s was because that fan base was convinced they were getting Michkov.

 

[Gliff]

We'll see how it shakes out. I'm just saying that a player with almost zero scoring at any level has probably never been taken 3rd overall in an NHL draft. So that would be quite the interesting pick, especially after all the moaning about Reinbacher getting taken 5th overall. Also, another high profile LHD is definitely the last thing the Ducks need.

Where is this coming from that he will have almost zero scoring? He had 10 points in 63 games in the second best league in the world with no PP time.
Hedman only had 21 in 43 playing junior where he got all the PP time.

We have no idea how his offense will evolve.

I made a post a few pages back but I will reiterate, I dont care at all if he is a 20-30 point guy with no PP time. Look at Chara. He was a 20-30 point guy if you took away his PP points. Zellweger and Minty are both probably a better fit for the PP.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

We'll see how it shakes out. I'm just saying that a player with almost zero scoring at any level has probably never been taken 3rd overall in an NHL draft. So that would be quite the interesting pick, especially after all the moaning about Reinbacher getting taken 5th overall. Also, another high profile LHD is definitely the last thing the Ducks need.

While not a perfect objection to your comment, Hedman (#2 overall pick who you see mentioned in Silayev comparables quite frequently) in his age 17 season had 4 points in 39 SHL games, Silayev having 11 points in 63 KHL games at the same age. The difference being, Hedman was still not draft eligible due to a late bday, went on to post great numbers at age 18 and also had a track record of production in the Swedish junior level. Which to your point yeah, no track record of production at all is unusual for a pick that early. To take him with a top 3 pick would be to completely buy in on the notion that he's just tipping the iceberg on a late trajectory.

 

[tomd]

We'll see how it shakes out. I'm just saying that a player with almost zero scoring at any level has probably never been taken 3rd overall in an NHL draft. So that would be quite the interesting pick, especially after all the moaning about Reinbacher getting taken 5th overall. Also, another high profile LHD is definitely the last thing the Ducks need.

I’ll leave you with two thoughts:
1. How many points would Buium levshuniv Dickinson it Parekh have had in the KHL as 17 year olds?
2. He’ll play the right side on the Ducks

Bonus thought:
How much better will Silayev make guys like zellweger mintyukov and lacombe knowing that they are covered by an outstanding defenseman? The ducks have nothing close to that right now.

 

[FiveTacos]

The moaning about Reinbacher wasn’t because of him, it’s was because that fan base was convinced they were getting Michkov.

And that was a significantly better draft. If Reinbacher were in this draft I'd happily take him 3oa no hesitation, assuming he didn't go 2nd.

You gotta forget draft position to some degree this year. Almost all the guys we're talking about could go anywhere from 2-7, some might even slide past that. So if you like the guy enough that you'd gladly take him at 7, then you might as well take him at 3 and live with the results. Or you just trade that pick for the best established NHLer you can.

 

[Hinterland]

I’ll leave you with two thoughts:
1. How many points would Buium levshuniv Dickinson it Parekh have had in the KHL as 17 year olds?
2. He’ll play the right side on the Ducks

Bonus thought:
How much better will Silayev make guys like zellweger mintyukov and lacombe knowing that they are covered by an outstanding defenseman? The ducks have nothing close to that right now.

Again, playing NHL is different from any other league. Playing your off side is much more difficult in the NHL. Even if you played your offside elsewhere that doesn't mean you can do it in the NHL.

I don't think Levshunov has significantly more offensive upside than Silayev. He's basically a smaller, softer, more boring version of Silayev. I don't think there's anything Levshunov does better than Silayev. Dickinson does have more of a track record as a scorer and he does have more offensive upside than Silayev but I'm not sure if it's significant. Parekh and Buium have significantly more offensive upside and easily would have outscored Silayev. Doesn't mean they'd have played better which isn't the same. They're way more dynamic though, they have better vision and better hands as well which is bound to turn into higher scoring at any level.

 

[All Mighty]

I watched 4-5 KHL games and most of the MHL playoffs, he was at RD every game.

While that is nice to know, I don't put that much stock into it. LaCombe almost exclusively played RD in college and he was pretty bad at it in the NHL. I also personally believe that every defenseman is better/more comfortable on their strong side (I honestly can't think of an example that contradicts that thought). In other words, if you play a defenseman on his weak side, you are limiting his ceiling. This might be fine for some players who are just trying to make themselves useful and find a spot on a roster, but not for a top pick. If we do pick Silayev (and FWIW I don't have much of an issue with picking him), then I would sincerely hope he never plays RD because I want a guy who we spent a #3 pick on to reach his potential. The only dman we have in our system who I am relatively OK with playing on his weak side is Zellweger. He is a unique player with supreme confidence and puck skill. If I thought Zellweger had top pairing upside, then maybe I would think differently, but for his role, he should be able to handle playing his weak side.

 

[Hinterland]

Where is this coming from that he will have almost zero scoring? He had 10 points in 63 games in the second best league in the world with no PP time.
Hedman only had 21 in 43 playing junior where he got all the PP time.

We have no idea how his offense will evolve.

I made a post a few pages back but I will reiterate, I dont care at all if he is a 20-30 point guy with no PP time. Look at Chara. He was a 20-30 point guy if you took away his PP points. Zellweger and Minty are both probably a better fit for the PP.

That's not a lot. Reinbacher scored 18 even strength points in just 46 games in his draft season. On a poor team that just got promoted.
It would be something different if Silayev scored points earlier in his career or if he displayed better hands or vision. He's also just not as dynamic as most other top defensemen in this year's draft. He's a good skater but I just can't see him drive play with the puck on his stick.

Again, I'm not saying his offense won't evolve. I think he's gonna be a top4 defenseman in the NHL at the very least. I just don't think he has the tools to justify a 3rd overall pick. A player like him was likely never before picked 3rd overall.

While that is nice to know, I don't put that much stock into it. LaCombe almost exclusively played RD in college and he was pretty bad at it in the NHL. I also personally believe that every defenseman is better/more comfortable on their strong side (I honestly can't think of an example that contradicts that thought). In other words, if you play a defenseman on his weak side, you are limiting his ceiling. This might be fine for some players who are just trying to make themselves useful and find a spot on a roster, but not for a top pick. If we do pick Silayev (and FWIW I don't have much of an issue with picking him), then I would sincerely hope he never plays RD because I want a guy who we spent a #3 pick on to reach his potential. The only dman we have in our system who I am relatively OK with playing on his weak side is Zellweger. He is a unique player with supreme confidence and puck skill. If I thought Zellweger had top pairing upside, then maybe I would think differently, but for his role, he should be able to handle playing his weak side.

Yeah. Cases of defensemen able to play their off side equally are very rare. Most players lose a little bit at least when playing their off side. There have been some who did very well though. Brett Pesce is a good example that comes to mind. But those are exceptions.

 

[Gliff]

That's not a lot. Reinbacher scored 18 even strength points in just 46 games in his draft season. On a poor team that just got promoted.
It would be something different if Silayev scored points earlier in his career or if he displayed better hands or vision. He's also just not as dynamic as most other top defensemen in this year's draft. He's a good skater but I just can't see him drive play with the puck on his stick.

Again, I'm not saying his offense won't evolve. I think he's gonna be a top4 defenseman in the NHL at the very least. I just don't think he has the tools to justify a 3rd overall pick. A player like him was likely never before picked 3rd overall.


Yeah. Cases of defensemen able to play their off side equally are very rare. Most players lose a little bit at least when playing their off side. There have been some who did very well though. Brett Pesce is a good example that comes to mind. But those are exceptions.

Reinbacher played in the Swiss league where Daniel Winnik and Linus Omark are top 10 scorers. How is that even comparable to the KHL?

 

[All Mighty]

Reinbacher played in the Swiss league where Daniel Winnik and Linus Omark are top 10 scorers. How is that even comparable to the KHL?

The KHL is definitely superior, but let's not pretend the top 10 scorers in the KHL are that impressive.

 

[Hinterland]

Reinbacher played in the Swiss league where Daniel Winnik and Linus Omark are top 10 scorers. How is that even comparable to the KHL?

Reinbacher played NL in his draft season. He played SL the season before but his team was promoted.

You might have missed it but Linus Omark is a 4x KHL allstar.
KHL used to be much better than NL but that has changed. Also, even back in 08/09 when the lone edition of the Gazprom CHL was played, the ZSC Lions dominated Magnitogorsk in the final, winning game 2 5-0.

 

[robbieboy3686]

I would agree but Silayev is under contract for another two years.

For all you Fowler lovers, the 2 players faits would line up perfectly then. Cuz I’m pretty sure gudas will retire a duck. And the top 4 rhd we sign this off-season + minty + Luneau+ zell will be fixtures at that point. And our big Russian would come in and fit like a glove.

 

[tomd]

Again, playing NHL is different from any other league. Playing your off side is much more difficult in the NHL. Even if you played your offside elsewhere that doesn't mean you can do it in the NHL.

I don't think Levshunov has significantly more offensive upside than Silayev. He's basically a smaller, softer, more boring version of Silayev. I don't think there's anything Levshunov does better than Silayev. Dickinson does have more of a track record as a scorer and he does have more offensive upside than Silayev but I'm not sure if it's significant. Parekh and Buium have significantly more offensive upside and easily would have outscored Silayev. Doesn't mean they'd have played better which isn't the same. They're way more dynamic though, they have better vision and better hands as well which is bound to turn into higher scoring at any level.

The scuttlebutt is that the Ducks are looking at D for that 3OA pick (take that scuttlebutt for what it is worth). If so, the decision is likely between Levshunov, Silayev, and Dickinson. Each player has his pros and cons but Silayev just seems like a player that PV would drool over. We'll know soon enough...