Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[BlueForever75]

Hosmer has a 7 year - 147M offer from the Royals according to Bob Nightengale. Hosmer should take that and run too. Idiotic for the Royals.

That is crazy money. Another mistake like they did with Gordon. Hosmer isn't worth 20+ million per season. 15-16 million per at most.

 

[zeke]

Hosmer has a 7 year - 147M offer from the Royals according to Bob Nightengale. Hosmer should take that and run too. Idiotic for the Royals.

Boras will hold out for 8yrs.

 

[phillipmike]

If Martinez is getting 130M from the Red Sox then he needs to take that deal ASAP. I have a hard time seeing him getting more and if he does is it with a better team than the Red Sox?

Red Sox are stupid to make this move but i understand their need to answer the Yankees move and maximize this window. It sounds like their plan is to trade Bradley... move Benintendi to CF, sign Martinez to play LF and potentially trade Bogarets+ for Machado. I like the Machado part but not the the trade Bradley to make room for Martinez.

For me they shouldnt have re-signed Moreland. And potentially freed up Hanley's spot in Braves-Dodgers like move or maybe Hanley and prospects for Votto or even Freeman if he was somehow available. Votto seems far fetched even though i think the Reds should be aggressively shopping him. Regardless of that Hanley for McCarthy or Kazmir/Markasis or something like that would make sense. Then try to land Freeman or Votto or Abreu to be your 1B... if not then you have fall back options for your 1B and DH spots. Alonso was a solid signing by the Indians in my opinion - i wasnt crazy about the Santana signing but even that should give you better value than JD Martinez at that price. Carlos Gonzalez or Jay Bruce to rotate in the OF/DH would have been as well. Duda is a good cheap option too. They need someone to play 2B while Pedroia is hurt and Lowrie would be a good addition.

Red Sox were near the bottom of the league in wRC+ vs RHP when they were 1st by a long shot in 2016.

2017 wRC+ vs RHP:
Votto - 168
Freeman - 162
Alonso - 141
Bruce - 131
Duda - 125
Santana - 123
Lowrie - 123
Gonzalez - 103

Realistically Alonso at 1B, Santana as DH and Lowrie as 2B/Util would have been more cost effective and realistic if Votto/Freeman/Abreu wasnt/isnt on the table.

Benintendi - LF
Betts - CF
Devers - 3B
Santana - DH
Alonso - 1B
Bogaerts - SS (Machado would like nice after Devers)
Bradley - CF
Lowrie - 2B
Leon/Vasquez - C

 

[phillipmike]

Boras will hold out for 8yrs.

He might get it too. The report is he has multiple offers citing only the Royals and Padres but he could have others after him.

I thought the market might be dipping if most of the major FAs havent signed and it is January but it sounds like it is pretty strong for the top guys. Martinez and Hosmer's markets look strong. I would say the top starters would look strong too looking at what Chatwood got. Darvish, Cobb, Lynn, and Arrieta will get good deals.

 

[phillipmike]

MLB Teams Have Learned to Wait on Free Agents | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[justafan22]

Jays will likely sign a mid-upper mid level free agent position player, think cain/bruce/nunez type and a 4th/5th starter. Other than that I doubt they do much

 

[BlueForever75]

Jays will likely sign a mid-upper mid level free agent position player, think cain/bruce/nunez type and a 4th/5th starter. Other than that I doubt they do much

Nothing wrong with that. Only thing is that it will a Cain/Bruce type, a Nunez type and a 4th/5th starter. I am perfectly fine with this. Makes their lineup instantly better then last season on paper. And if injuries hold off to players like Tulo, Travis, Martin and Sanchez we are right in the thick of things.

 

[Greek_physique]

Given our current structure.......would getting Arrieta on a 4 year deal be bad?

I mean, I know he regressed a bit last year...but that would give us an amazing starting 5.

Stroman
Happ
Sanchez
Estrada
Arrieta

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Given our current structure.......would getting Arrieta on a 4 year deal be bad?

I mean, I know he regressed a bit last year...but that would give us an amazing starting 5.

Stroman
Happ
Sanchez
Estrada
Arrieta

4? No it would not be bad, per se. Assuming the aav isn't ridiculous. He's got red flags all over though.

 

[BlueForever75]

I would give Arrieta 4 years at 20 million per.

Stroman
Arrieta
Estrada
Happ
Sanchez

Would be a crazy rotation and one that would tame the Bombers lineup.

 

[Woodman19]

I wouldn't touch Arietta. His market won't come down to the term that makes him an acceptable risk.

 

[phillipmike]

Brewers are interested in Cain and if they land him then they would be interested in trading an OF. I suspect they wont find a taker for Braun and Brinson isnt available. As MLBTR suggest Broxton, Santana and Phillips might be had.

Always liked Phillips... Santana would be the best target of that group but should cost a lot. If the price makes sense then i think Phillips is a good get. Maybe Phillips and Pearce platoon in LF?

 

[Discoverer]

I wouldn't touch Arietta. His market won't come down to the term that makes him an acceptable risk.

I think I've mentioned this before, but his numbers are almost identical to JA Happ's the last two years. That's good, and he's a a good pitcher - but a lot of people seem to think he's still the guy he was in 2015.

 

[Woodman19]

I think I've mentioned this before, but his numbers are almost identical to JA Happ's the last two years. That's good, and he's a a good pitcher - but a lot of people seem to think he's still the guy he was in 2015.

I'll gladly do the Happ deal but Boras will be pushing 5+ years.

 

[Garlando]

Brewers are interested in Cain and if they land him then they would be interested in trading an OF. I suspect they wont find a taker for Braun and Brinson isnt available. As MLBTR suggest Broxton, Santana and Phillips might be had.

Always liked Phillips... Santana would be the best target of that group but should cost a lot. If the price makes sense then i think Phillips is a good get. Maybe Phillips and Pearce platoon in LF?

If they go out and sign Lorenzo Cain, I think that's a sign that they don't think Brinson can contribute next year. For a top prospect, that would be a huge blow to him and probably around the league value wise. Now Phillips put together a pretty solid year in 2017, but I wouldn't have a lot of interest in him personally. His .400+ BAPIP hid his ugly 34.7% K rate, and he wasn't much better in AAA with a 29.9 K%. Phillips value is tied to his defensive abilities, particularly in CF, so he's more suited for a 4th OFer role. He's also solely suited as a platoon bat at this point. The Jays have a better option in-house in Alford so I'll pass on Phillips.

 

[Discoverer]

I'll gladly do the Happ deal but Boras will be pushing 5+ years.

Arrieta definitely deserves more than the Happ deal. Happ's contract was only as low as it was because of the uncertainty around whether or not he would maintain his improvements. Arrieta, on the other hand, has a long history of success, so you can reasonably expect him to maintain at least the level he showed last year.

I would commit $60 million to Arrieta. Still a bit of a gamble because there are some huge red flags suggesting his recent slide could continue, but it's manageable and you can see a little upside there. Unfortunately, he's getting a bunch more than that.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Brewers are interested in Cain and if they land him then they would be interested in trading an OF. I suspect they wont find a taker for Braun and Brinson isnt available. As MLBTR suggest Broxton, Santana and Phillips might be had.

Always liked Phillips... Santana would be the best target of that group but should cost a lot. If the price makes sense then i think Phillips is a good get. Maybe Phillips and Pearce platoon in LF?

I would avoid the issue of negotiating with them, and attempt to sign Cain instead (unless he's expressed an unwillingness to play in Toronto). The later it gets into January, the more aggressive I would be with non-Boras clients.

All that said, they'd likely just start Brinson and Phillips in Triple-A, and trade Broxton to somebody who thinks they can turn him into Lorenzo Cain. I imagine Santana isn't going anywhere, and they're of course stuck with the Hebrew Hammer.

 

[ACC1224]

Want to get a buddy a custom Jays shirt for his 50th. Any suggestions on the best place to order that?

 

[TF97]

Steve Delabar to Texas on a MLC

 

[Discoverer]

I would avoid the issue of negotiating with them, and attempt to sign Cain instead (unless he's expressed an unwillingness to play in Toronto). The later it gets into January, the more aggressive I would be with non-Boras clients.

All that said, they'd likely just start Brinson and Phillips in Triple-A, and trade Broxton to somebody who thinks they can turn him into Lorenzo Cain. I imagine Santana isn't going anywhere, and they're of course stuck with the Hebrew Hammer.

Wait... I've got it. Sign Cain, promote Alford, trade for Broxton. Go with a Cain/future Cain/maybe Cain OF.

In all seriousness... no thanks on Broxton. I'm not generally anti-strikeout, but there are levels that are just way too high from a player doesn't provide excellent value elsewhere, offensively or otherwise. I think 37% pretty safely crosses that threshold.

 

[BlueForever75]

Here's an interesting scenario, Cleveland is open to trading Salazar. He would be a fantastic add to our rotation both long term and short term. With Shatkins having ties to Cleveland is a deal possible. They are looking for relief arms and outfield help in return.

Is there a match??? He would look good in our rotation.

 

[BlueForever75]

Wait... I've got it. Sign Cain, promote Alford, trade for Broxton. Go with a Cain/future Cain/maybe Cain OF.

In all seriousness... no thanks on Broxton. I'm not generally anti-strikeout, but there are levels that are just way too high from a player doesn't provide excellent value elsewhere, offensively or otherwise. I think 37% pretty safely crosses that threshold.

Honestly speaking if there was a way to get something of value back for Pillar, I would trade him and put Alford in center starting this season. He is a hell of a defender and cannot do any worse then Pillar at the plate. That is one position that the Jays can afford to go young with not much lost. If anything we gain by trading Pillar for something we need elsewhere and Alford will do more.

Would we all be ok with a Hernandez-Alford-Bruce/Gonzalez/Gomez outfield??? Or would a Hernandez/Cain/Alford outfield be better for the Jays???? I think I would do the latter in a heartbeat.

 

[Amadeus]

Here's an interesting scenario, Cleveland is open to trading Salazar. He would be a fantastic add to our rotation both long term and short term. With Shatkins having ties to Cleveland is a deal possible. They are looking for relief arms and outfield help in return.

Is there a match??? He would look good in our rotation.

There is a reason they're looking to let him go.

Personally, I'd not give up any asset and try to get Alex Cobb. He fits our rotation really well as a very capable mid rotation starter.

Stroman
Sanchez
Happ
Cobb
Estrada

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Lol.

Yeah, hard no thanks on Broxton.

As far as the outfield goes, I've settled on signing Cain, signing Dyson (1 yr + TO), and shopping Pillar. Cain in CF, Dyson platoon in LF with Pearce, and Teoscar starting in RF. Eventually, Alford comes up after ~200 PA's in Buffalo, and is the everyday LF. Dyson slides into the 4th OF role.

Cain moves over to a corner in favour of Alford in 19 or 20, depending on how he ages.

The non-Boras free agent OF (Bruce, Cain, to a lesser extent Dyson, Granderson) interest me a lot. Their agents aren't nuts, and will eventually crack and take a team friendly deal (as opposed to telling his clients to wait until the all-star break, or some other non-sense like that). Lots of value.

 

[BlueForever75]

There is a reason they're looking to let him go.

Personally, I'd not give up any asset and try to get Alex Cobb. He fits our rotation really well as a very capable mid rotation starter.

Stroman
Sanchez
Happ
Cobb
Estrada

Mid-rotation starter is right, but at a number 1 or 2 starter price from what I am hearing. Salazar is only slated to make 4.5 million this season. His down year last season may get him on the cheap as a good to potentially above average 5th starter.