Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[voyageur]

Mittelstadt was matched up with Scheifele far more than Monahan.... Can you post the line matchups?

Yes you are right, thank you for the correction, the majority of Mittlestadt's on ice contributions came against Scheifele...Nate Schmidt was on the ice for 3 of his goals. Scheifele beat him head to head game 1. Does that reinforce that Colorado won because of analytics?

 

[WolfHouse]

Yes you are right, thank you for the correction, the majority of Mittlestadt's on ice contributions came against Scheifele...Nate Schmidt was on the ice for 3 of his goals. Scheifele beat him head to head game 1. Does that reinforce that Colorado won because of analytics?

I'm playing devils advocate a bit... i think they adjusted after game 1 and analytics was part of it. I think the Jets deploy lines that oppose what analytics tells them...

I'd be surprised if analytics doesn't say that pionks game falls off a cliff if he plays too many minutes or that they do say they should play Stan over miller... etc

The Jets lost by ignoring analytics more than avs won with analytics

 

[voyageur]

I don't know too many people who would say analytics won Colorado the series, but it almost certainly helped them prepare and adjust.

But the more important point is that you keep asking for 'evidence' and 'facts', which is good. That's what everyone wants these days, and is what the article is really saying. In that sense, the data points are just little 'bits' of information, factoids in mathematical form, that teams study to try to extract meaningful evidence. It's just a modern day form of detective work, with lots of noise, but also signals in all the information collected.

If you believe in evidence as an organization, then you need to commit to gathering statistical information, then having experts analyze it, then translating it back simply to the people that need it to make decisions.

I agree with data analysis...But hockey is in no way predictable. Neal Pionk's name comes up in this discussion...game 4 Pionk plays unprotected minutes against MacKinnon's line on the road, no goals against...Jets get creamed...Next game home matchup Neal Pionk takes 1st penalty, tie game, gets beat by Nikuschkin, down 1, scores on his own net, down 1. But the Jets fought back to tie the game. Schmidt was on the ice for the dagger. Missed his coverage...did analytics predict this, or do a series of events happen in a hockey game that were unpredictable...like bad goals by Hellebuyck...

I'd really like to know the how one can make that assertion that analytics won the series...and that's it for me I don't want to derail your post, because there is more to it than the one paragraph.

 

[nabby12]

Connor Scheifele Vilardi
Ehlers Lambert Laine
Nino Lowry Perfetti
Barron Namestnikov Appleton

Chibrikov, Kupari, Gus
Iafallo moved in Laine deal.

Morrissey Demelo
Samberg Pionk
Heinola Miller

Salomonsson/Stanley

Helle
Kahkonen

 

[WolfHouse]

I agree with data analysis...But hockey is in no way predictable. Neal Pionk's name comes up in this discussion...game 4 Pionk plays unprotected minutes against MacKinnon's line on the road, no goals against...Jets get creamed...Next game home matchup Neal Pionk takes 1st penalty, tie game, gets beat by Nikuschkin, down 1, scores on his own net, down 1. But the Jets fought back to tie the game. Schmidt was on the ice for the dagger. Missed his coverage...did analytics predict this, or do a series of events happen in a hockey game that were unpredictable...like bad goals by Hellebuyck...

I'd really like to know the how one can make that assertion that analytics won the series...and that's it for me I don't want to derail your post, because there is more to it than the one paragraph.

Are you sure about these 'unprotected minutes' against MacKinnon - because they matched Jomo with MacKinnon

 

[voyageur]

Are you sure about these 'unprotected minutes' against MacKinnon - because they matched Jomo with MacKinnon

On the road. Can't match.

 

[Buffdog]

I'm playing devils advocate a bit... i think they adjusted after game 1 and analytics was part of it. I think the Jets deploy lines that oppose what analytics tells them...

I'd be surprised if analytics doesn't say that pionks game falls off a cliff if he plays too many minutes or that they do say they should play Stan over miller... etc

The Jets lost by ignoring analytics more than avs won with analytics

I watched the games and didn't need a single stat to tell me that Pionk was trash and Stanley was too slow to keep up with the Avs

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Jets miss the playoffs…..next year

Why ?

Good year then bad year format/ dance card that the Jets seem to do.

No logical Rhyme or reason to it… So let’s just play the kids and get some draft currency for our expiring UFAs ….

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Yes, he did. His model had him at $5.3M x seven years.

Basically, to sum it up, here's what he had to say:

- Scheifele is worth $8.5M offensively, but his defensive game is so bad it takes away from that. He's a low-end top-line option

- Scheifele being the Jets best forward is a big reason why the Jets are first-round fodder, he doesn't stack up well against the rest of the game's elite, and doubling-down with him is going to cost the Jets moving forward

- His offence is largely "empty calories" because he gives so much back defensively despite getting secondary matchups

- He's 31, so things are likely to get worse

- If his offence dries up, it's an albatross

Ok Schiefele is bad at Defence argument.

Eye test - yes sometimes he sucks at defence.

Result # 1 centre on team that allowed the least amount of goals last year in the NHL …,

Helly Buck wins v- …..

Maybe that’s why they were signed as a pair .

 

[WolfHouse]

I watched the games and didn't need a single stat to tell me that Pionk was trash and Stanley was too slow to keep up with the Avs

Very true. It's also in their original scouting reports... they both became exactly the player they were predicted to be

 

[voyageur]

I watched the games and didn't need a single stat to tell me that Pionk was trash and Stanley was too slow to keep up with the Avs

Interesting that heading into final game only 2 d-men were not - players on the Jets...one was Dillon any guesses who the 2nd one was?

 

[WolfHouse]

Interesting that heading into final game only 2 d-men were not - players on the Jets...one was Dillon any guesses who the 2nd one was?

Colin Miller

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would be very supportive of a blockbuster trade featuring Connor as one of the big pieces.
I just don’t think we can go very far with his defensive liabilities/lack of effort.

I wouldn't put it quite that way. A bit harsh. He is not great, but he is OK away from Scheifele. Those 2 are the anti-chemistry. They bring out the worst in each other.

But considering all factors he is the winger I would be shopping.
He costs more, ATM. He would bring a better return. It would make Scheifele better. His net effect on goals would be easier to replace.

That said though, I like KC. I just want to swap him with Ehlers. By all appearances he is happy in Wpg. Scoring goals is the object of the game and he does it very well. He has shown up in the PO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree with data analysis...But hockey is in no way predictable. Neal Pionk's name comes up in this discussion...game 4 Pionk plays unprotected minutes against MacKinnon's line on the road, no goals against...Jets get creamed...Next game home matchup Neal Pionk takes 1st penalty, tie game, gets beat by Nikuschkin, down 1, scores on his own net, down 1. But the Jets fought back to tie the game. Schmidt was on the ice for the dagger. Missed his coverage...did analytics predict this, or do a series of events happen in a hockey game that were unpredictable...like bad goals by Hellebuyck...

I'd really like to know the how one can make that assertion that analytics won the series...and that's it for me I don't want to derail your post, because there is more to it than the one paragraph.

Hockey is very predictable - but not on the time scale of individual plays, or even single games. Will analysis tell us which team will win a 7 game series? Not every time, but probably more often than not. Analytics tells us that Pionk is going to make more bad plays than good ones. It does not tell us that ALL of Pionk's play will be bad.

What you are saying seems to be that because analytics doesn't tell us everything, it doesn't tell us anything. What analysis of the data tells us is probabilities, not certainties.

Edit: I don't think it is likely to be accurate to say that analytics won that series for Avs. But it probably played a significant part.

 

[Buffdog]

Interesting that heading into final game only 2 d-men were not - players on the Jets...one was Dillon any guesses who the 2nd one was?

Are you using +/- over a 5 game sample size to draw a conclusion?

Even Starsnerds can do better than that

 

[Flair Hay]

I wouldn't put it quite that way. A bit harsh. He is not great, but he is OK away from Scheifele. Those 2 are the anti-chemistry. They bring out the worst in each other.

But considering all factors he is the winger I would be shopping.
He costs more, ATM. He would bring a better return. It would make Scheifele better. His net effect on goals would be easier to replace.

That said though, I like KC. I just want to swap him with Ehlers. By all appearances he is happy in Wpg. Scoring goals is the object of the game and he does it very well. He has shown up in the PO.

Yeah I know some do but I definitely don't like ragging on Connor. Great teams can have guys like him whose job is to put the puck in the net but struggle defensively.

Trouble is we are putting two of them on the same line and there appears to be a blind spot somewhere in identifying what even pretty basic stats have shown over the past several years.

Hockey is very predictable - but not on the time scale of individual plays, or even single games. Will analysis tell us which team will win a 7 game series? Not every time, but probably more often than not. Analytics tells us that Pionk is going to make more bad plays than good ones. It does not tell us that ALL of Pionk's play will be bad.

What you are saying seems to be that because analytics doesn't tell us everything, it doesn't tell us anything. What analysis of the data tells us is probabilities, not certainties.

Edit: I don't think it is likely to be accurate to say that analytics won that series for Avs. But it probably played a significant part.

Pretty well said. This isn't about blaming Pionk for a series loss, it's about identifying one of the weak spots from our core cotributors over the past several years of hockey.

 

[Flair Hay]

Ok Schiefele is bad at Defence argument.

Eye test - yes sometimes he sucks at defence.

Result # 1 centre on team that allowed the least amount of goals last year in the NHL …,

Helly Buck wins v- …..

Maybe that’s why they were signed as a pair .

Unfortunately there is a lot more needed in the middle. Least amount of goals was a big step for our team in consistently sticking to the system. But that got exposed pretty badly in April.

He isn't great defensively and he looks worse than he should because he plays a lot (maybe too many) mins and he has Connor stapled to his hip.

Both guys are amazing players for us to have drafted where we did. They just play better apart than they do together 5 on 5.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Connor is our only top 6 winger who showed up for the playoffs.
To answer a previously asked question, I don't think the Jets can win with Connor, but, they can't win with any of their wingers.

 

[cbcwpg]

Getting ready for next season.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Getting ready for next season.

that room is not having any of this analytics presentation

 

[Weezeric]

that room is not having any of this analytics presentation

The head coach seems pretty engaged, which is the most important thing. Of course, what can you really take from one still image…..

 

[Gil Fisher]

The head coach seems pretty engaged, which is the most important thing. Of course, what can you really take from one still image…..

wanton speculation is the way to go

 

[Buffdog]

that room is not having any of this analytics presentation

Chevy (who used to be a fighter) from the back of the room at the analytics presenter:

 

[macmaroon]

Getting ready for next season.

I think they are arguing the merits of waiting in line for Krispy Kreme vs. simply going to Tim Hortons...

 

[KingBogo]

that room is not having any of this analytics presentation

Was it said somewhere that this was a presentation on analytics?