Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Buffdog]

Miss me with the "the Jets need size on the backend, so the Stanley Experiment isn't dumb as shit" nonsense. 6'5 physical RHD Kovacevic was lost on waivers because of the Stanley Experiment. If the goal was to get a physical D-man with size, they had him right there. The goal isn't to get a physical D-man with size. It's to get Stanley to the level where he's a passable D-man. For whatever reason.

But hey, maybe with 10-15 years of development, he can develop into a passable bottom pairing D-man.

Kovacevic was lost because our right side was

Demelo
Pionk
Schmidt

All gad at laeast 3 yeara of term at the time Kova was placed on waivers. Had nothing to do with Stanley

 

[WolfHouse]

The opposite of Stanley/Heinola would be Coghlan/Miller and not since preseason has a RD played their offside, but there was some decent results from all 3 of Coghlan, Lundmark and Salomonsson in that role.

Then play heinola and one of the rhd...

Kovacevic was lost because our right side was

Demelo
Pionk
Schmidt

All gad at laeast 3 yeara of term at the time Kova was placed on waivers. Had nothing to do with Stanley

We had just signed kova to 3 yrs and had zero rhd depth... it was a bizarre move regardless

 

[voyageur]

Kovacevic was lost because our right side was

Demelo
Pionk
Schmidt

All gad at laeast 3 yeara of term at the time Kova was placed on waivers. Had nothing to do with Stanley

It doesn't matter now bro. Before it was Pionk, but Pionk isn't playing bad, in fact he is playing good. Stanley's advanced stats aren't even the worst. De Melo is so far down there and getting beat regularly now, but Stanley is the reason why the Jets are in this tailspin, even when he isn't in the lineup. Because the Jets are being outchanced with him on the ice. And as we all know xGoals matter. Because they predict how bad a player is likely to suck. What's the Jets PK with Stanley in the lineup? If the Jets win on special teams like they did early in the season, they win more than they lose.

There is a generally disdain for the Stuart/Chiarot/Stanley type of defenseman in this lineup. Always has been. And a genuine love for the PMD Niku/Chisholm/Heinola types as the way to win. I think Tampa, Vegas and Florida are recent examples of bigger defenses winning, with some good skaters to insulate them.

So I agree with Low Lefty, that it's a mindset the team has. So far Stanley hasn't replaced Dillon, and Dillon is doing just fine with a good team.

There's probably a lot of players Chevy would covet in free agency or in a trade as an upgrade, but the amount of good physical d-men available to Winnipeg on the market is likely marginally slim.

 

[Romang67]

Kovacevic was lost because our right side was

Demelo
Pionk
Schmidt

All gad at laeast 3 yeara of term at the time Kova was placed on waivers. Had nothing to do with Stanley

Who was the #7 D-man on the roster who was kept up when they exposed Kovacevic and sent him down?

The LD was:

Morrissey
Dillon
Samberg

It was no less established, and certainly no less of a future than the RD.

Pretending that The Stanley Experiment wasn't the reason why Kovacevic was sent down is ridiculous.

 

[voyageur]

Then play heinola and one of the rhd...

Who plays the PK on the left side, Morrissey, or Heinola? Jets PK is up to 11th in the league after a pretty rocky start, I still think there is some consideration there.

Can Heinola kill penalties? Because with Samberg out that's the role. Can Miller kill penalties regularly, maybe with Pionk on his offside like they had to in Dallas with all the d-men going to the box? Maybe worth a look, especially if Ville can make the PP work better, in Ehlers absence.

I'll say this: penalty killing in a league where guys can whip the puck is not a fun role. Samberg is down with a shot block. De Melo might be banged up blocking shots. Lundmark went down in preseason taking one off the foot. And isnt playing right now for likely the same reason. JAD broke his foot. I think guys like Beaulieu and Sbisa were decent enough skaters early in their career but you break your feet enough times there is nothing left to skate on. Imagine telling your parents you want to play hockey, and all the skill that it takes to make it to the next level, and your career is basically a pain threshhold at a certain point.

I'll qualify that I am not the coach. This is not a fun time to be the coach.

 

[Buffdog]

Who was the #7 D-man on the roster who was kept up when they exposed Kovacevic and sent him down?

The LD was:

Morrissey
Dillon
Samberg

It was no less established, and certainly no less of a future than the RD.

Pretending that The Stanley Experiment wasn't the reason why Kovacevic was sent down is ridiculous.

Stanley had 95 NHL games under his belt when Kovacevoc was waived vs 4 for Kova

They kept the known commodity. Stanley was farther along in his "development"

You're trying to revise history here. Stanley had noting to do with Kovacevic getting waived

 

[Romang67]

Stanley had 95 NHL games under his belt when Kovacevoc was waived vs 4 for Kova

They kept the known commodity. Stanley was farther along in his "development"

You're trying to revise history here. Stanley had noting to do with Kovacevic getting waived

What? You're saying that they kept the known commodity (which, if Stanley was the "known" commodity, means they kept the bad hockey player) over Kovacevic. If that's what they did, how does keeping Stanley over Kovacevic have nothing to do with Kovacevic being waived?

How is it rewriting history to say that if you lose a player on waivers because you chose to keep Stanley in the NHL over him, you're choosing Stanley over other players?

 

[WolfHouse]

It doesn't matter now bro. Before it was Pionk, but Pionk isn't playing bad, in fact he is playing good. Stanley's advanced stats aren't even the worst. De Melo is so far down there and getting beat regularly now, but Stanley is the reason why the Jets are in this tailspin, even when he isn't in the lineup. Because the Jets are being outchanced with him on the ice. And as we all know xGoals matter. Because they predict how bad a player is likely to suck. What's the Jets PK with Stanley in the lineup? If the Jets win on special teams like they did early in the season, they win more than they lose.

There is a generally disdain for the Stuart/Chiarot/Stanley type of defenseman in this lineup. Always has been. And a genuine love for the PMD Niku/Chisholm/Heinola types as the way to win. I think Tampa, Vegas and Florida are recent examples of bigger defenses winning, with some good skaters to insulate them.

So I agree with Low Lefty, that it's a mindset the team has. So far Stanley hasn't replaced Dillon, and Dillon is doing just fine with a good team.

There's probably a lot of players Chevy would covet in free agency or in a trade as an upgrade, but the amount of good physical d-men available to Winnipeg on the market is likely marginally slim.

Except chiarot had enough speed to actually hit people... stuart had a great hip check but no speed... stanley has speed to be physical after the play stops

 

[JetsFan815]

There is a generally disdain for the Stuart/Chiarot/Stanley type of defenseman in this lineup.

Is there? Brendon Dillon and Samberf are the big physical bruising d-man with little to no production archetype and have nothing but love.

And a genuine love for the PMD Niku/Chisholm/Heinola types as the way to win.

Pionk is the closest comparable to Niku/Chisholm/Heinola and as you noted got routinely criticized until this season.

Almost like people prefer having good d-men regardless of their weight and size.

 

[voyageur]

Is there? Brendon Dillon and Samberf are the big physical bruising d-man with little to no production archetype and have nothing but love.


Pionk is the closest comparable to Niku/Chisholm/Heinola and as you noted got routinely criticized until this season.

Almost like people prefer having good d-men regardless of their weight and size.

Criticized because xGoals. The favourite stat for a winning HF team. Toby never put up 5 straight 30 points seasons and people loved him. Great Corsi. I'll take Pionk's battle level on the PK over Toby's any day.

Samberg is a gem, it's hard not to like him. Definitely not a bruiser though. Dillon put up some good fight here.

I never saw any of Niku/Chisholm/Heinola lay a big hip check, block shot at any cost, or make hits on the boards to make plays, so that kind of comparison is a stretch.

 

[JetsFan815]

Criticized because xGoals. The favourite stat for a winning HF team. Toby never put up 5 straight 30 points seasons and people loved him. Great Corsi. I'll take Pionk's battle level on the PK over Toby's any day.

Samberg is a gem, it's hard not to like him. Definitely not a bruiser though. Dillon put up some good fight here.

I never saw any of Niku/Chisholm/Heinola lay a big hip check, block shot at any cost, or make hits on the boards to make plays, so that kind of comparison is a stretch.

People like Enstrom because he cleared the front of the net and was one of the best at not giving up chances in close. What has points got to do with being a defense-man who plays shutdown D?

 

[voyageur]

People like Enstrom because he cleared the front of the net and was one of the best at not giving up chances in close. What has points got to do with being a defense-man who plays shutdown D?

The Jets weren't a contender until Josh became the shut down d-man. Enstrom was never that. I feel like his best years were probably in Atlanta, but he had some good ones playing behind Buff. Buff leaving made Morrissey the offensive leader. And Pionk emerged as the defensive leader. And is still putting up points transitioning from defense to offense. Samberg goes down and up until last game the Corsi is still going up. Listen to players talk and they talk about how he communicates on the ice well. I think Pionk came to be the top RD on a team that imploded by losing 3 top RD in one season, and fans have always had an ambivalence towards him because he couldn't get the team back to where it was.. De Melo was largely viewed as the #1 RD until last season because statistically he and Morrissey were superior to the shutdown pairing of Pionk and Dillon. This year Samberg steps up, new coach, Pionk seems to be one of the better conditioned Jets. Things are going the Jets way, hard to criticize him, but there are still a lot of haters in the shadows. I don't really get it, but we have Salomonsson now so the defense is set. Because every prospect we've ever had is always better than an established player until they play. De Melo looks kind of slow this year.

That's my HF Summary of Defense.

Oh wait I forgot Stanley. He's a big body. I'm on the record in preseason as saying I thought Fleury could supplant Stanley when others had Heinola in there. Because of the PK factor.

 

[Romang67]

I suspect that the resurgence of Neal Pionk will come crashing down to earth in the next couple of months. Away from Samberg, he hasn't done any better this season than he has any season since the COVID season. And only one player on that pairing is a consistently good player in terms of out-chancing the other team.

 

[voyageur]

I suspect that the resurgence of Neal Pionk will come crashing down to earth in the next couple of months. Away from Samberg, he hasn't done any better this season than he has any season since the COVID season. And only one player on that pairing is a consistently good player in terms of out-chancing the other team.

I can't comment on last game because i didn't see it. But the Dallas game that was Pionk out there with Fleury on Lowry's goal. He was the guy buzzing around putting shots on goal putting the puck on Scheifele's stick for a game tying opportunity. His skating is creating offense. De Melo's skating is negating it at this point, and I'll believe he's injured. But how many times is the puck going through the area where he (De Melo) is supposed to be? Analytics please.

 

[Romang67]

I can't comment on last game because i didn't see it. But the Dallas game that was Pionk out there with Fleury on Lowry's goal. He was the guy buzzing around putting shots on goal putting the puck on Scheifele's stick for a game tying opportunity. His skating is creating offense. De Melo's skating is negating it at this point, and I'll believe he's injured. But how many times is the puck going through the area where he is supposed to be. Analytics please.

DeMelo is having by far the worst season of his career so far. There are some pretty clear indications (other than the eye stat) that he's dragging Morrissey down this season.

He is also about the age where A LOT of decently physical players of his size fall off a cliff. If that's the case, that contract is gonna sting.

Pionk in 150 minutes away from Samberg has an xGF% of 38% so far this season. He better start skating harder.

 

[Buffdog]

What? You're saying that they kept the known commodity (which, if Stanley was the "known" commodity, means they kept the bad hockey player) over Kovacevic. If that's what they did, how does keeping Stanley over Kovacevic have nothing to do with Kovacevic being waived?

How is it rewriting history to say that if you lose a player on waivers because you chose to keep Stanley in the NHL over him, you're choosing Stanley over other players?

Because they had no idea what they had in kovacevic. At the time, nobody knew how kova would turn out. He could have ended up worse than Stanley at the NHL level. Revisionist history isn't the same as rewriting history

Imagine you've been dating someone for a couple of months. Things are good, you're getting along fine. Another person comes along and you have a nice chat over coffee. Maybe you'd hit it off if you got together, maybe not

Do you dump the person you've been with for two months to find out?

 

[voyageur]

DeMelo is having by far the worst season of his career so far. There are some pretty clear indications (other than the eye stat) that he's dragging Morrissey down this season.

He is also about the age where A LOT of decently physical players of his size fall off a cliff. If that's the case, that contract is gonna sting.

Pionk in 150 minutes away from Samberg has an xGF% of 38% so far this season. He better start skating harder.

I'm trying to think of what situations he plays away from Samberg previous to his injury. I think it would be the back half of the PK once killed where you give up more shots than you take. 2nd period long changes. And the late game situations where the Jets are pressing for goals. I don't think it's as bad as you paint it. His xGF definitely went up in the Dallas game. And it's hard to say that any other d-man (maybe including Morrissey) is generating offense the way he has been.

In regards to De Melo, it's ironic that Salomonsson can't get the call now because there are too many healthy d-men. I don't think that contract will be a burden like Schmidt's because De Melo has a clear role on the PK that he achieves well, but he will be an overpaid #3RD if he can't find his game.

 

[Romang67]

Because they had no idea what they had in kovacevic. At the time, nobody knew how kova would turn out. He could have ended up worse than Stanley at the NHL level. Revisionist history isn't the same as rewriting history

Imagine you've been dating someone for a couple of months. Things are good, you're getting along fine. Another person comes along and you have a nice chat over coffee. Maybe you'd hit it off if you got together, maybe not

Do you dump the person you've been with for two months to find out?

I didn't say they chose Stanley over a current top 4 D-man on one of the best rosters. I said they chose Stanley over Kovacevic. Which they did, when they waived Kovacevic.

The fact that it turned into choosing a 6'7 D-man who maybe one day can be a capable bottom pairing D-man over someone who has turned into a 6'5 physical RHD who plays in the top 4 for one of the better teams in the league doesn't exactly make the choice better.

 

[Romang67]

I'm trying to think of what situations he plays away from Samberg previous to his injury. I think it would be the back half of the PK once killed where you give up more shots than you take. 2nd period long changes. And the late game situations where the Jets are pressing for goals. I don't think it's as bad as you paint it. His xGF definitely went up in the Dallas game. And it's hard to say that any other d-man (maybe including Morrissey) is generating offense the way he has been.

In regards to De Melo, it's ironic that Salomonsson can't get the call now because there are too many healthy d-men. I don't think that contract will be a burden like Schmidt's because De Melo has a clear role on the PK that he achieves well, but he will be an overpaid #3RD if he can't find his game.

You don't play 150 minutes away from a player in 25 games in off situations like that. Late game situations where the Jets are pressing for goals should result in high goals expectations, so that doesn't explain it. Samberg has played less than 60 minutes away from Pionk.

We'll see. So far this season, Pionk has been no better this season away from Samberg than he has been previous seasons. Maybe this will change. Can't exactly get worse.

 

[DRW204]

Because they had no idea what they had in kovacevic. At the time, nobody knew how kova would turn out. He could have ended up worse than Stanley at the NHL level. Revisionist history isn't the same as rewriting history

Imagine you've been dating someone for a couple of months. Things are good, you're getting along fine. Another person comes along and you have a nice chat over coffee. Maybe you'd hit it off if you got together, maybe not

Do you dump the person you've been with for two months to find out?

how is that the same at all? this isn't some random "other person"
and the comparison should really be against schmidt. kovacevic should not have been unknown to this team. he was released in 2022, the Jets were tracking him as a player, his progress, potential etc. from at least 2016 (year before he was drafted). they were wrong in their estimation of his potential which they should have known about for 5-6 years, and made a ~20 million dollar + draft picks decision because of it.

DeMelo is having by far the worst season of his career so far. There are some pretty clear indications (other than the eye stat) that he's dragging Morrissey down this season.

He is also about the age where A LOT of decently physical players of his size fall off a cliff. If that's the case, that contract is gonna sting.

Pionk in 150 minutes away from Samberg has an xGF% of 38% so far this season. He better start skating harder.

i dont think you should be expecting pionk to carry fleury. fleury isn't a regular in any serious PO teams top-4. the drop off from samberg to fleury is the likely the prboelm.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Without reading it, I'd just add that he's been anti-Stanley since before the pick itself, so there's bound to be some confirmation bias in there

For long time followers of this story, he wasn’t just anti Stanley following his selection, rather Garret had heard rumblings that Chevy was considering drafting Stanley so wrote a story presenting a case to NOT draft him. This was prior to Hohl being hired by NHL teams to provide analytics, but when he was simply a hockey writer for Jets Nation.

Here is the link to that old story.


“Jets Nation Draft Preview: Logan Stanley could be a good player, so don’t draft him

 

[Romang67]

how is that the same at all? this isn't some random "other person"
and the comparison should really be against schmidt. kovacevic should not have been unknown to this team. he was released in 2022, the Jets were tracking him as a player, his progress, potential etc. from at least 2016 (year before he was drafted). they were wrong in their estimation of his potential which they should have known about for 5-6 years, and made a ~20 million dollar + draft picks decision because of it.



i dont think you should be expecting pionk to carry fleury. fleury isn't a regular in any serious PO teams top-4. the drop off from samberg to fleury is the likely the prboelm.

I don't expect Pionk to carry anyone.

His numbers away from Samberg AND Fleury are also bad, but there we're down to about 75 minutes of ice time.

 

[Gm0ney]

how is that the same at all? this isn't some random "other person"
and the comparison should be against schmidt. kovacevic should not have been unknown to this team. he was released in 2022, the Jets were tracking him as a player, his progress, potential etc. from at least 2016 (year before he was drafted). they were wrong in their estimation of his potential which they should have known about for nearly 6 years, and made a ~20 million dollar + draft picks decision because of it.



i dont think you should be expecting pionk to carry fleury. fleury isn't a regular in any serious PO teams top-4. the drop off from samberg to fleury is the likely the prboelm.

Yeah, it's tough to say "How could we have known?!" when the Jets spent years developing Kovacevic. They should've known. They should also know that Stanley is not going to happen...

 

[DRW204]

Yeah, it's tough to say "How could we have known?!" when the Jets spent years developing Kovacevic. They should've known. They should also know that Stanley is not going to happen...

i am not going to get into an immense back and forth on this, b/c usually the Jets prospects go off and be nothing elsewhere. and this is really the first opposing instance

but it's hard to deny kovacevic esp considering the heightened importance of RHD. i was wary at first given it was MTL, but am a bit of a believer given the rave reviews on NJD.

 

[Buffdog]

I didn't say they chose Stanley over a current top 4 D-man on one of the best rosters. I said they chose Stanley over Kovacevic. Which they did, when they waived Kovacevic.

The fact that it turned into choosing a 6'7 D-man who maybe one day can be a capable bottom pairing D-man over someone who has turned into a 6'5 physical RHD who plays in the top 4 for one of the better teams in the league doesn't exactly make the choice better.

Man, you juat won't quit

They waived Kovacevic becaue they had 3 vets on the right side and he had no chance of cracking the line up for 3 years, unless someone went down in injury

Left side was (going into the 2022-23 season)

Jomo
Dillon
Samberg (15 games NHL experience at that point)
Stanley

They didn't seven know how Samberg would turn out at the NHL level at that point. That's the one period in time where our RHD depth > LHD depth

Basically kovacevic was facing 3 years of popcorn duty if he wasn't waived.