Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[DRW204]

Pionk a borderline third pair to no pair dman is f***ing hilarious

This sort of matches the "eye test" for me. Morrissey, Samberg and Miller have been anchoring the 3 D pairs. I think Pionk is getting downgraded in this model due to his poor prior performance, so I'd rank him higher.

The concern has to be about DeMelo, as noted...

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[DRW204]

Again. This is the entire purpose of models... to find and define a larger dataset to give us a clearer picture than just gut instinct

I find his rating surprising but this makes me wonder if we are wearing rose coloured glasses - it doesnt make me throw the model away

If a model's inputs are leading to spit out that Pionk is a borderline non-nhl worthy defenseman this season, then there's something terribly wrong with whoever authored it, and perhaps the rest of its outputs or conclusions are wrong AF too.

What quantitative data or information gives you a clear picture that Pionk is on the border of 3rd pair and essentially shouldn't be a regular nhl dman?

 

[bustamente]

I think people in general are taking to much from data, analytics, graphs what have you. They may a place in sports but I really don't look at them.

 

[WolfHouse]

If a model's inputs are leading to spit out that Pionk is a borderline non-nhl worthy defenseman this season, then there's something terribly wrong with whoever authored it, and perhaps the rest of its outputs or conclusions are wrong AF too.

What quantitative data or information gives you a clear picture that Pionk is on the border of 3rd pair and essentially shouldn't be a regular nhl dman?

I know the models warned us about the canadian division effect on pionks contract year

This one doesnt match the eye test but ill watch him now to see if we are over estimating him because we want him to work out

I think pionk benefits from samberg more than the other way around - id like to see this model at the end of the season as well

 

[DRW204]

I know the models warned us about the canadian division effect on pionks contract year

This one doesnt match the eye test but ill watch him now to see if we are over estimating him because we want him to work out

I think pionk benefits from samberg more than the other way around - id like to see this model at the end of the season as well

In terms of predicting sure. But that's not what the crux of the post is.

this is a rating of his play this year, not an attempt to predict how he may play in season's to come.

I don't disagree that Samberg helps however pionk has done alot well individually regardless of his partner. these geniuses with their models need to go back to the drawing board for refinement.

 

[DRW204]

I think people in general are taking to much from data, analytics, graphs what have you. They may a place in sports but I really don't look at them.

They're good at finding potential diamonds in the rough and do have their place for sure.

But these galaxy brained posters overdo it. Synthetic goals we're talking about.

The chart above has Pionk closer to Stanley than Miller, and is rating his offense worse than d. Do these ppl even skate? You'd get laughed out of the building with shit like that.

 

[WolfHouse]

In terms of predicting sure. But that's not what the crux of the post is.

this is a rating of his play this year, not an attempt to predict how he may play in season's to come.

I don't disagree that Samberg helps however pionk has done alot well individually regardless of his partner. these geniuses with their models need to go back to the drawing board for refinement.

Im talking about this season - and i see him scoring a lot but also his takeaway giveaway ratio is terrifying

I just think instead of dismissing a model you need to look at an outlier like this and ask what is.actually happening - is pionk still a possession nightmare and samberg just covers for him better than dillon?

The spread between adv stats of jomo and pionk definitely doesnt look this drastic

 

[DRW204]

Im talking about this season - and i see him scoring a lot but also his takeaway giveaway ratio is terrifying

I just think instead of dismissing a model you need to look at an outlier like this and ask what is.actually happening - is pionk still a possession nightmare and samberg just covers for him better than dillon?

The spread between adv stats of jomo and pionk definitely doesnt look this drastic

In takeaway vs giveaways from naturalstattrick at 5v5

Morrissey is a -16
Pionk -19
Miller -17

So is the net difference of 2-3 over 20+ games the threshold for terrifying?

This model concludes pionk this year so far is closer to Stanley than Miller. His offense is worse than d, and is on the border of not an everyday NHL dman.

I can accept Pionk may not be as good as the stats or eyes suggest however the conclusion it's spitting above is ridiculous. And if it's way far off base there, then the question is how else is it wrong.

 

[voyageur]

I know the models warned us about the canadian division effect on pionks contract year

This one doesnt match the eye test but ill watch him now to see if we are over estimating him because we want him to work out

I think pionk benefits from samberg more than the other way around - id like to see this model at the end of the season as well

I think it's chemistry that makes them work. Knowing how to play off each other.

I mean Neal Pionk is up there with Josi, Hedman, Hamilton, Bouchard and Adam Fox among others in scoring. And none of those guys is +9.

For years we heard De Melo was the top RD, but you wonder how much Morrissey was feeding his success, and this year De Melo is starting to bring the Jets top pairing down.

The ice time should be a good indication of the player, especially when Chynoweth says ice time is earned not given...so that would be Morrissey, Pionk and Samberg as 1, 2 and 3. You can look for underlying things, but I'm not sure the models are looking in the right direction. Kind of reminds me of Garret's last call on here, that Pionk was not an NHL top 6 defenseman.

 

[Jet]

If only those guys were as good as Ville, we'd have the best D on the planet.


A Ville clone would be perfect?

Ville has about a million miles to go to hold Pionk's jock. He may end up better but saying it today is nothing but hope and dreams.

 

[WolfHouse]

In takeaway vs giveaways from naturalstattrick at 5v5

Morrissey is a -16
Pionk -19
Miller -17

So is the net difference of 2-3 over 20+ games the threshold for terrifying?

This model concludes pionk this year so far is closer to Stanley than Miller. His offense is worse than d, and is on the border of not an everyday NHL dman.

I can accept Pionk may not be as good as the stats or eyes suggest however the conclusion it's spitting above is ridiculous. And if it's way far off base there, then the question is how else is it wrong.

Im pulling a @Buffdog here and not taking a stance...

I think it's chemistry that makes them work. Knowing how to play off each other.

I mean Neal Pionk is up there with Josi, Hedman, Hamilton, Bouchard and Adam Fox among others in scoring. And none of those guys is +9.

For years we heard De Melo was the top RD, but you wonder how much Morrissey was feeding his success, and this year De Melo is starting to bring the Jets top pairing down.

The ice time should be a good indication of the player, especially when Chynoweth says ice time is earned not given...so that would be Morrissey, Pionk and Samberg as 1, 2 and 3. You can look for underlying things, but I'm not sure the models are looking in the right direction. Kind of reminds me of Garret's last call on here, that Pionk was not an NHL top 6 defenseman.

I could see how your posts would drive him insane

 

[Buffdog]

Ville has about a million miles to go to hold Pionk's jock. He may end up better but saying it today is nothing but hope and dreams.

Pionk was born July 1995, so I think that puts him in the 2013 draft (where he wasn't picked)

He didn't play an NHL game until his D+6 season... and this season happens to be Ville's D+6 season

At the same point in their respective careers, Ville is 35 NHL games and 11 NHL points ahead of where Pionk was

All of that says almost nothing... except that their career timelines are similar so far

 

[Adam da bomb]

Samberg's worth is being shown right now, could be a great bargaining chip in the summer when he becomes a RFA

Bargaining chip for what? Also, no pay the man he’s our second best D.

 

[scelaton]

Pionk was born July 1995, so I think that puts him in the 2013 draft (where he wasn't picked)

He didn't play an NHL game until his D+6 season... and this season happens to be Ville's D+6 season

At the same point in their respective careers, Ville is 35 NHL games and 11 NHL points ahead of where Pionk was

All of that says almost nothing... except that their career timelines are similar so far

It provides a good perspective. Ville has not proven anything in the NHL, but Pionk has shown over a number of seasons that he is defensively mediocre. He has made up for that with offensive prowess and, more recently, the team's +/- has contributed to his offensive stats. No question, Pionk is having a very good season so far, but Ville actually has a higher defensive ceiling. Whether he reaches it or not is still unknown.

Might also be worth mentioning that Toby Enstrom didn't start his NHL career till just before his 23rd birthday. I doubt Heinola reaches his lofty heights, but, as a two way player, Toby-light might be a better comparator.

 

[Buffdog]

It provides a good perspective. Ville has not proven anything in the NHL, but Pionk has shown over a number of seasons that he is defensively mediocre. He has made up for that with offensive prowess and the team's +/- has contributed to his offensive stats. No question, Pionk is having a very good season so far, but Ville actually has a higher defensive ceiling. Whether he reaches it or not is still unknown.

Might also be worth mentioning that Toby Enstrom didn't start his NHL career till just before his 23rd birthday. I doubt Velle reaches his lofty heights, but, as a two way player, Toby-light might be a better comparator.

I didn't mean to compare Ville and Pionk stylistically, just that it's too early to write Ville off yet.

He may not reach the upside we were all hoping for with a 1st round pick, but he could still develop into a 2-3LHD tweener amd PP specialist... which would be just fine for me

I have no issue with our long-term left side depth looking like

JoMo
Samberg
Ville
Stanley

 

[voyageur]

It provides a good perspective. Ville has not proven anything in the NHL, but Pionk has shown over a number of seasons that he is defensively mediocre. He has made up for that with offensive prowess and, more recently, the team's +/- has contributed to his offensive stats. No question, Pionk is having a very good season so far, but Ville actually has a higher defensive ceiling. Whether he reaches it or not is still unknown.

Might also be worth mentioning that Toby Enstrom didn't start his NHL career till just before his 23rd birthday. I doubt Heinola reaches his lofty heights, but, as a two way player, Toby-light might be a better comparator.

I feel like Toby Enstrom was always overrated based on his Corsi, based on the fact that he played with the likes of Buff, and when he wasn't playing with Buff, it was Bogosian, Trouba or Myers. Never had a substandard d partner in his whole career, but didn't really deliver the mail so to speak. It's funny that Pionk can't reach Enstrom's lofty heights, heading towards his 6th straight season of 30 plus points, and 5 playoff appearances in 6 years in a top 4 role, often the shutdown role, which was rarely Toby's in his career here. If Heinola ends up being as soft as Toby boxing out, the Jets are in trouble. Puck movement and positioning are the two areas where he would be similar.

 

[WolfHouse]

Pionk was born July 1995, so I think that puts him in the 2013 draft (where he wasn't picked)

He didn't play an NHL game until his D+6 season... and this season happens to be Ville's D+6 season

At the same point in their respective careers, Ville is 35 NHL games and 11 NHL points ahead of where Pionk was

All of that says almost nothing... except that their career timelines are similar so far

I concur wholeheartedly

 

[Crocket]

I didn't mean to compare Ville and Pionk stylistically, just that it's too early to write Ville off yet.

He may not reach the upside we were all hoping for with a 1st round pick, but he could still develop into a 2-3LHD tweener amd PP specialist... which would be just fine for me

I have no issue with our long-term left side depth looking like

JoMo
Samberg
Ville
Stanley

Nobody is writing him off at all. The injury could negatively affect his skating, but Heinola has very high hockey IQ and moves the puck very well. The rest of the story is yet to be written.

Remember, Samberg was a plumber with horrible giveaways on his resume until this year where he's playing well, still bobbles it a lot but plays with a partner who can make him look better some nights and worse other nights.

I'll always remember Samberg's perfect pass in triple overtime to Vegas for the winner.

 

[DRW204]

Nobody is writing him off at all. The injury could negatively affect his skating, but Heinola has very high hockey IQ and moves the puck very well. The rest of the story is yet to be written.

Remember, Samberg was a plumber with horrible giveaways on his resume until this year where he's playing well, still bobbles it a lot but plays with a partner who can make him look better some nights and worse other nights.

I'll always remember Samberg's perfect pass in triple overtime to Vegas for the winner.

Lol what. samberg was still extremely good defensively and a net positive for the Jets prior to this season despite the sometimes shaking puck handling. You can't say the same for heinola.

 

[Flair Hay]

Lol what. samberg was still extremely good defensively and a net positive for the Jets prior to this season despite the sometimes shaking puck handling. You can't say the same for heinola.

Yeah if anything Samberg has been a budding stud shut down guy for 2 years now with a couple big lowlights. The OT against Vegas especially.

Him and Nate Dogg were the best 3rd pair in the league defensively last year.

He didn't get handed his spot either, he had to fight for his spot platooning with Stan. Ville will do the same thing if he can make a positive contribution.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah if anything Samberg has been a budding stud shut down guy for 2 years now with a couple big lowlights. The OT against Vegas especially.

Him and Nate Dogg were the best 3rd pair in the league defensively last year.

He didn't get handed his spot either, he had to fight for his spot platooning with Stan. Ville will do the same thing if he can make a positive contribution.

Time and time again, across different coaches, the Jets have found ways to keep Heinola out the lineup aided by the GMs moves for trades or signings of other Dmen. I know years ago i used to think he may be something special, maybe just maaaaybe he's not as good as some think he is.

 

[Crocket]

Lol what. samberg was still extremely good defensively and a net positive for the Jets prior to this season despite the sometimes shaking puck handling. You can't say the same for heinola.

Lol, Heinola wasn't playing. Samberg was a 3rd pair with a great partner. I like Samberg, he's a good stay at home 2nd or 3rd pair. Samberg was a sheltered player on an extremely good defensive team. I like him. But denying that he's not the most agile, or high IQ player is kinda dumb.

 

[DRW204]

Lol, Heinola wasn't playing. Samberg was a 3rd pair with a great partner. I like Samberg, he's a good stay at home 2nd or 3rd pair. Samberg was a sheltered player on an extremely good defensive team. I like him. But denying that he's not the most agile, or high IQ player is kinda dumb.

Lol, yes of course he wasn't consistently playing because he was not better than any of the options ahead of him and the Jets went out their way to always find better. Denying that is kinda dumb.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Thats the point of models though... to offset our eye test opinions

And our eye test offsets the models.