Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[tbcwpg]

I think Stanley is going to be a revelation next season. Probably sign Miller too.

I too think Stanley will reveal a lot next season, but I'm not sure a lot of it is going to be good.

 

[ps241]

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if your opinion is closer to Arniel's than most fans.

They wouldn't have started him in the playoffs if they didn't have a fairly high opinion of him. I would be shocked if Arniel doesn't have him pencilled in as the 3LD, with Dillon moving on. Maybe they see him as the next Desharnais or Mikkola... a big, late-developing 6D. He'll need to further improve his mobility, that's for sure.

If Dillon moves on I am assuming the org will want Stanley in a more active role to fill some of the physical void that Dillon’s departure creates. I think it’s a flawed approach but I will watch it play out. Just don’t pair him with Samberg and force Samberg to play his off side again.

 

[KingBogo]

If Dillon moves on I am assuming the org will want Stanley in a more active role to fill some of the physical void that Dillon’s departure creates. I think it’s a flawed approach but I will watch it play out. Just don’t pair him with Samberg and force Samberg to play his off side again.

If I had to call an opening day defense group, my prediction would be:

Morrissey - DeMelo
Samberg - Pionk
Stanley - Heinola

#7 a UFA signing or waiver pickup. I'll go out on a limb and say Kovy after he gets waived by the Habs at the end of camp. Dillon gone to free agency and Schmidt bought out. Obviously DeMelo re-signed, but with a contract many will complain about.

 

[voyageur]

If I had to call an opening day defense group, my prediction would be:

Morrissey - DeMelo
Samberg - Pionk
Stanley - Heinola

#7 a UFA signing or waiver pickup. I'll go out on a limb and say Kovy after he gets waived by the Habs at the end of camp. Dillon gone to free agency and Schmidt bought out. Obviously DeMelo re-signed, but with a contract many will complain about

I wonder about demoting Schmidt to the Moose for next season...There's a real lack of LD depth in the organization, and sure you can sign these guys like Capobianco but is Schmidt a valuable asset outside the rink? Could he help the Moose or Salomonsson in his growth? I feel like he would be a good mentor. Other than Simon Lundmark who has to go through waivers, there's not a guy I see getting called up on defense next year...so at least Schmitty would be some insurance and pretty safe to pass through with that contract.

I don't think Kovacevic skates well enough or moves the puck well enough to stay in the NHL...I'm ready to move on from that one...I'd consider bringing Forbort back though...to replace some of Dillon's game at a discount. Might help Neal too.

 

[KingBogo]

I wonder about demoting Schmidt to the Moose for next season...There's a real lack of LD depth in the organization, and sure you can sign these guys like Capobianco but is Schmidt a valuable asset outside the rink? Could he help the Moose or Salomonsson in his growth? I feel like he would be a good mentor. Other than Simon Lundmark who has to go through waivers, there's not a guy I see getting called up on defense next year...so at least Schmitty would be some insurance and pretty safe to pass through with that contract.

I don't think Kovacevic skates well enough or moves the puck well enough to stay in the NHL...I'm ready to move on from that one...I'd consider bringing Forbort back though...to replace some of Dillon's game at a discount. Might help Neal too.

2 problems with Schmidt to the Moose, is that most of his salary will still be applied to the cap as you can only burry approx $1 M in the minors (exact number not as easy to dig out without Capfriendly). Also not the Jets style. A buy-out allows Schmidt to go to free agency where he will no doubt land an NHL job. Likely at league minimum with a strong contender to be a bargain 6/7 guy.

 

[voyageur]

2 problems with Schmidt to the Moose, is that most of his salary will still be applied to the cap as you can only burry approx $1 M in the minors (exact number not as easy to dig out without Capfriendly). Also not the Jets style. A buy-out allows Schmidt to go to free agency where he will no doubt land an NHL job. Likely at league minimum with a strong contender to be a bargain 6/7 guy.

Fair points. That's a tricky one for me...A Schmidt buyout costs north of $4 million over 2 years, because his base salary is less than his Cap Hit. $2.7 M for this year as a Cap Hit. I think demotion puts his Cap Hit around $4.7 the calculator I believe is league minimum salary plus 1/2 (not sure of exact numbers)...But the question for me is do we have a player in the organization who could play with Salomonsson on the Moose next year? Kuzmin had a rocky 1st year. Ashton Sauntner is probably a 3rd pairing AHL d-man if he comes back, used on PK...Could Schmidt accelerate Salomonsson's growth in the minors...to the point where both are playoff options? I'm penciling in the kid for an AHL tour of duty that only Trouba avoided as a draft pick...just wondering how much AHL personnel will contribute to/affect his growth as a player...because even good players are generally only as good as the players around them in terms of success.

 

[KingBogo]

Fair points. That's a tricky one for me...A Schmidt buyout costs north of $4 million over 2 years, because his base salary is less than his Cap Hit. $2.7 M for this year as a Cap Hit. I think demotion puts his Cap Hit around $4.7 the calculator I believe is league minimum salary plus 1/2 (not sure of exact numbers)...But the question for me is do we have a player in the organization who could play with Salomonsson on the Moose next year? Kuzmin had a rocky 1st year. Ashton Sauntner is probably a 3rd pairing AHL d-man if he comes back, used on PK...Could Schmidt accelerate Salomonsson's growth in the minors...to the point where both are playoff options? I'm penciling in the kid for an AHL tour of duty that only Trouba avoided as a draft pick...just wondering how much AHL personnel will contribute to/affect his growth as a player...because even good players are generally only as good as the players around them in terms of success.

I see the value for the Jets, I just don't think they ever do that to a veteran who has been an NHL regular for so many years. The only way I see Schmidt and the Jets buying into that type of plan is if Schmidt had long term coaching asperations and a place in the organization following retirement was part of the plan. If that were the case I think it would be great, just have my doubts.

 

[tbcwpg]

Fair points. That's a tricky one for me...A Schmidt buyout costs north of $4 million over 2 years, because his base salary is less than his Cap Hit. $2.7 M for this year as a Cap Hit. I think demotion puts his Cap Hit around $4.7 the calculator I believe is league minimum salary plus 1/2 (not sure of exact numbers)...But the question for me is do we have a player in the organization who could play with Salomonsson on the Moose next year? Kuzmin had a rocky 1st year. Ashton Sauntner is probably a 3rd pairing AHL d-man if he comes back, used on PK...Could Schmidt accelerate Salomonsson's growth in the minors...to the point where both are playoff options? I'm penciling in the kid for an AHL tour of duty that only Trouba avoided as a draft pick...just wondering how much AHL personnel will contribute to/affect his growth as a player...because even good players are generally only as good as the players around them in terms of success.

Just keep Schmidt and rotate him in and out. He's got one year left with an increasing cap and the team has about $13.6m in space.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

What do you mean by revelation exactly?
Serious question

The revelation is don't trade two picks for one.

Just keep Schmidt and rotate him in and out. He's got one year left with an increasing cap and the team has about $13.6m in space.

The odds that our d core is anything besides
Jomo-demelo
Samberg-pionk
Heinola-schmidt
Stan

Are very low

 

[Buffdog]

The revelation is don't trade two picks for one.


The odds that our d core is anything besides
Jomo-demelo
Samberg-pionk
Heinola-schmidt
Stan

Are very low

I'm fine with that as long as it's Heinola-Schmidt and not Stanley-Schmidt on the bottom pair

If that's the situation, then it means that:
1. We either have Ehlers in the line up or he got a really good non-D return in terms of a forward or futures
2. Samberg- Pionk had decent results in a limited sample size last year and maybe Snerg can stabilize Pionk
3. That bottom pairing could be a puck-moving dynamo if paired with the right forward lines vs weak opposition

The next year Schmidt and Pionk are gone and Salo slides in to the second pair with Snerg. Those two together intrigue me but I guess we'll have to wait and see how it turns out

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I'm fine with that as long as it's Heinola-Schmidt and not Stanley-Schmidt on the bottom pair

If that's the situation, then it means that:
1. We either have Ehlers in the line up or he got a really good non-D return in terms of a forward or futures
2. Samberg- Pionk had decent results in a limited sample size last year and maybe Snerg can stabilize Pionk
3. That bottom pairing could be a puck-moving dynamo if paired with the right forward lines vs weak opposition

The next year Schmidt and Pionk are gone and Salo slides in to the second pair with Snerg. Those two together intrigue me but I guess we'll have to wait and see how it turns out

I'd be shocked if Salo goes straight to 2nd pair... we are in classic over estimating prospects Hf mode these days

Samberg lifts everyone up... let's hope it's sustainable on second pairing

Really wonder if they don't try heinola on his right side... then he'd be ready for the samberg pairing and salo plays sheltered the season after

 

[Buffdog]

I'd be shocked if Salo goes straight to 2nd pair... we are in classic over estimating prospects Hf mode these days

Samberg lifts everyone up... let's hope it's sustainable on second pairing

Really wonder if they don't try heinola on his right side... then he'd be ready for the samberg pairing and salo plays sheltered the season after

I can only speak for myself but I'm optimistic for Salo getting up to speed quickly based on his usage last season in SHL and his coach's praise and comments from last year

He's had success playing vs men in a good league so it's not like the he's first year out of junior and the pro game vs grown men is something brand new

 

[voyageur]

I'd be shocked if Salo goes straight to 2nd pair... we are in classic over estimating prospects Hf mode these days

Samberg lifts everyone up... let's hope it's sustainable on second pairing

Really wonder if they don't try heinola on his right side... then he'd be ready for the samberg pairing and salo plays sheltered the season after

I think Samberg is going to get harder defensive zone minutes next year. Pionk has had those minutes for a few years now...Heinola I could see top pairing with Morrissey if he is on...that's closer to Harley/Heiskanen...Expecting Salomonsson to come into the league and be a good PKer, in a year the Jets look to promote Heinola, another unproven PKer, seems highly unlikely. If De Melo walks I'd be really interested to see who Chevy has in mind as his PK replacement. For that same reason I think Stanley (PK)/ Heinola probably has more traction than Heinola/Schmidt (an unproven PKer with an inefficient one)...we still don't know if Arniel will use Morrissey on the PK, he's had a clean slate pretty much since playing through injury 2019-2020. But you expect that Arniel would like to get back to a top 10 PK and something near or at a top 10 PP. Increases chances of winning.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I can only speak for myself but I'm optimistic for Salo getting up to speed quickly based on his usage last season in SHL and his coach's praise and comments from last year

He's had success playing vs men in a good league so it's not like the he's first year out of junior and the pro game vs grown men is something brand new

My optimistic lineup is
Jomo-samberg
Dillon-heinola
Capo-DeMelo
Stan

 

[Adam da bomb]

My optimistic lineup is
Jomo-samberg
Dillon-heinola
Capo-DeMelo
Stan

Isn’t capo playing in another league?

 

[DRW204]

I think Samberg is going to get harder defensive zone minutes next year. Pionk has had those minutes for a few years now...Heinola I could see top pairing with Morrissey if he is on...that's closer to Harley/Heiskanen...Expecting Salomonsson to come into the league and be a good PKer, in a year the Jets look to promote Heinola, another unproven PKer, seems highly unlikely. If De Melo walks I'd be really interested to see who Chevy has in mind as his PK replacement. For that same reason I think Stanley (PK)/ Heinola probably has more traction than Heinola/Schmidt (an unproven PKer with an inefficient one)...we still don't know if Arniel will use Morrissey on the PK, he's had a clean slate pretty much since playing through injury 2019-2020. But you expect that Arniel would like to get back to a top 10 PK and something near or at a top 10 PP. Increases chances of winning.

heinola with morrissey good god. heinola needs to brought in super slowly. he can't be playing top pair at all, sorry.

the Jets imo really need Demelo re-signed to have some year-to-year stability or familiarity on the back end. 2nd and 3rd pairs will likely be new (assuming dillon gone & samberg 2nd pair), at least the top-pair w/ how it was performing you can forecast some semblance of that with the same duo.

and really.. do something else with Pionk. some poster said this year that he defends like an animated cartoon would, and i can't get that description out of my mind. he's awful.

 

[Cnile]

heinola with morrissey good god. heinola needs to brought in super slowly. he can't be playing top pair at all, sorry.

the Jets imo really need Demelo re-signed to have some year-to-year stability or familiarity on the back end. 2nd and 3rd pairs will likely be brand new , at least the top-pair w/ how it was performing you can forecast some semblance of that with the same duo.

and really.. do something else with Pionk. some poster said this year that he defends like an animated cartoon would, and i can't get that description out of my mind. he's awful.

I agree with most of this
Pionk does not deploy himself

 

[voyageur]

heinola with morrissey good god. heinola needs to brought in super slowly. he can't be playing top pair at all, sorry.

the Jets imo really need Demelo re-signed to have some year-to-year stability or familiarity on the back end. 2nd and 3rd pairs will likely be new (assuming dillon gone & samberg 2nd pair), at least the top-pair w/ how it was performing you can forecast some semblance of that with the same duo.

and really.. do something else with Pionk. some poster said this year that he defends like an animated cartoon would, and i can't get that description out of my mind. he's awful.

I hope Pionk bounces back. Contract year should have him motivated...I'd still rather have Pionk at his salary than Trouba at $8 million. Familiarity is Pionk and Samberg and other Minnesota players training together. I don't expect De Melo to stay in Winnipeg. Optimistically I hope the Jets make some kind of overhaul though, to get both bigger and quicker.

 

[DRW204]

I hope Pionk bounces back. Contract year should have him motivated...I'd still rather have Pionk at his salary than Trouba at $8 million. Familiarity is Pionk and Samberg and other Minnesota players training together. I don't expect De Melo to stay in Winnipeg. Optimistically I hope the Jets make some kind of overhaul though, to get both bigger and quicker.

well if demelo isn't staying than the Jets need to find a top-pair RD, and that's not heinola.
sure i hope Pionk bounces back too. last contract year was really good (CDN Division) & the next 3 were bad.

 

[Jet]

heinola with morrissey good god. heinola needs to brought in super slowly. he can't be playing top pair at all, sorry.

the Jets imo really need Demelo re-signed to have some year-to-year stability or familiarity on the back end. 2nd and 3rd pairs will likely be new (assuming dillon gone & samberg 2nd pair), at least the top-pair w/ how it was performing you can forecast some semblance of that with the same duo.

and really.. do something else with Pionk. some poster said this year that he defends like an animated cartoon would, and i can't get that description out of my mind. he's awful.

I'm really hoping Pionk bounces back. I'm afraid there is no way we move him, so all we can hope is he has a huge bounceback - and if anyone is set for it it's him. Contract year, and an opportunity over the summer to get healthy body and mind.

I'm pulling for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The revelation is don't trade two picks for one.


The odds that our d core is anything besides
Jomo-demelo
Samberg-pionk
Heinola-schmidt
Stan

Are very low

The odds of that are = the odds of signing DeMelo.

I'm not assuming we have him until he is signed.

 

[DRW204]

I'm really hoping Pionk bounces back. I'm afraid there is no way we move him, so all we can hope is he has a huge bounceback - and if anyone is set for it it's him. Contract year, and an opportunity over the summer to get healthy body and mind.

I'm pulling for him.

well yeah, idk who else is really set for a huge bounceback... morrissey, samberg? what are they bouncing back too, they were great again last year. schmidt was solid in his role too. maybe stanley to the Cdn division year.

at the end of the day, the hope is every off-season for the players & ultimately team to play well. Pionk has not lived up to that supposed hope the last 3 years. fortunate for him. he's not in the same tier or level of polarity as Helle or Ehlers so his PO performance has been less criticized, when effectively the season was over because of his game-5.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd be shocked if Salo goes straight to 2nd pair... we are in classic over estimating prospects Hf mode these days

Samberg lifts everyone up... let's hope it's sustainable on second pairing

Really wonder if they don't try heinola on his right side... then he'd be ready for the samberg pairing and salo plays sheltered the season after

I can only speak for myself but I'm optimistic for Salo getting up to speed quickly based on his usage last season in SHL and his coach's praise and comments from last year

He's had success playing vs men in a good league so it's not like the he's first year out of junior and the pro game vs grown men is something brand new

Possibly classic HF overestimating a prospect on one hand while underestimating him on the other?

Maybe rushing him to the top 4 too quickly but I wonder if Jets are penciling him in at 3RD for this year. Based on his relatively steep trajectory and the high praise from his SHL coach he may be NHL ready this year. Its not like he will be right out of this year's draft class. He will be in D+3 and the first 2 post draft seasons have been spent in a very good men's pro league.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I think Salo needs a year in the AHL just to get used to the rigors of the North American game. He really only should be playing in case of injuries on the NHL

I really hope we sign Demelo and I think Pionk on the 2nd pair is fine for now. Morrissey/Demelo and Samberg/Pionk.

Just looking at some UFAs there is some decent value guys available but I am kind of guessing this off season could be a blood bath with the amount of cap space some teams have

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Salo needs a year in the AHL just to get used to the rigors of the North American game. He really only should be playing in case of injuries on the NHL

I really hope we sign Demelo and I think Pionk on the 2nd pair is fine for now. Morrissey/Demelo and Samberg/Pionk.

Just looking at some UFAs there is some decent value guys available but I am kind of guessing this off season could be a blood bath with the amount of cap space some teams have

I'm not optimistic we sign DeMelo. If he walks and we neither trade for a legit top 4 Dman nor sign a UFA one, I think we keep both Pionk and Schmidt.

We could end up with something like this:
JoMo - Pionk
Samberg - Schmidt
Stan - Heinola
???

Not very good. Signing DeMelo is pretty important. So is adding another RHD in addition to DeMelo. At least 1 of the 2 is a must but neither is guaranteed. Heinola should be sheltered on 3rd pair with a defensively solid partner L or R.

I hope Chevy has something up his sleeve besides an arm.