Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Maukkis]

was thinking given all the talks about the Jets' Defensive turnover with Demelo and Dillon as UFAs, or buy-outs..... how much the 2019 offseason may be given the Jets flashbacks. with Myers and Chiarot as UFA and the Trouba trade, the Jets were pretty ill-prepared for replacements. then add the Buff fiasco on top of that.

maybe the Jets would like to keep some of that continuity and go hard at re-signing both Demelo & Dillon ? and avoid being a position where you're basically rebuilding your top-4.

Re-upping Dillon works, provided that one of Pionk and Schmidt is shipped out. I don't think the cap numbers allow us to keep him without dumping someone with a high cap hit. It's also not the worst decision in its own right, although Dillon screams overpayment to me.

DeMelo is the one you overpay without second thought. That much should be clear.

 

[DRW204]

Re-upping Dillon works, provided that one of Pionk and Schmidt is shipped out. I don't think the cap numbers allow us to keep him without dumping someone with a high cap hit. It's also not the worst decision in its own right, although Dillon screams overpayment to me.

DeMelo is the one you overpay without second thought. That much should be clear.

EvolvingHockey - who are usually pretty close - have him at 2*2.45m, Demelo 4*4.8m.

I think they're a tad high on demelo and tad low on dillon. Would have to see how that fits for next year.

 

[raideralex99]

was thinking given all the talks about the Jets' Defensive turnover with Demelo and Dillon as UFAs, or buy-out of Schmidt..... how much the 2019 offseason may be given the Jets flashbacks. with Myers and Chiarot as UFA and the Trouba trade, the Jets were pretty ill-prepared for replacements. then add the Buff fiasco on top of that.

maybe the Jets would like to keep some of that continuity and go hard at re-signing both Demelo & Dillon ? and avoid being a position where you're basically rebuilding your top-4.

Buff was the killer ... losing him was one of the reasons the Jets over paid for Pionk and Schmidt plus the pandemic season didn't help playing in the Canadian division making Pionk look good.
Jets need a top 4 RHD (Trade or FA) for sure if they can't and they resign Demelo and Dillon for bigger contracts nothing will change.

 

[Maukkis]

EvolvingHockey - who are usually pretty close - have him at 2*2.45m, Demelo 4*4.8m.

I think they're a tad high on demelo and tad low on dillon. Would have to see how that fits for next year.

"Tad low" on Dillon should be a gross understatement, as we've seen a nunber of #7Ds get 3x3 on July 1st in recent years. I find it pretty difficult to imagine Dillon taking a pay cut. As for Dylan, that number could be pretty close.

 

[DRW204]

"Tad low" on Dillon should be a gross understatement, as we've seen a nunber of #7Ds get 3x3 on July 1st in recent years. I find it pretty difficult to imagine Dillon taking a pay cut. As for Dylan, that number could be pretty close.

2.45m vs 3m, idk how that is a gross understatement but ok.

 

[Maukkis]

2.45m vs 3m, idk how that is a gross understatement but ok.

I don't think 3 is enough. I see him getting closer to 4. Was a little unclear on that.

 

[mazmin]

I don't think 3 is enough. I see him getting closer to 4. Was a little unclear on that.

Agreed. Dillon can easily get $4M x 3 on open market. At his age, it might be best to move on, but he's not easily replaced. DeMelo is likely $4.5M for 4-5 years or a bit more with less term.

 

[Heldig]

Morrissey - Dumba
Dillon - V Desarnais
Samberg - P Meyers

Fire Pionk Schmidt DeMelo into the sun.

Dumba should be no where near a top 4 role anymore.

 

[Bob E]

At the start of next year:

Morrissey- 29 yo
DeMelo (R)- 31 yo, UFA
Pionk (R)- 29 yo, 1 yr UFA
Dillon- 33 yo (34 in Nov), UFA
Schimdt- 33 yo, 1 yr UFA
Samberg- 25 yo, 1 yr RFA
Stanley- 26 yo, RFA

Heinola- 23 yo, RFA
Salomonsson (R)- 20 yo

I’d like the Jets to:

- resign DeMelo to 3-4 yr contract @ $4M aav
- buyout Schimdt
- let Dillon walk (age, more so than performance)
- trade for a 24-28 yo top 4 dman, with some contract term, using Ehlers and prospect(s)
- add another dman in FA, and
- draft 1-2 dmen (early) in the upcoming draft, preferably a RH and LH d. Someone early like Elick or EJ Emery.

Morrissey-DeMelo/Trade
Samberg-Trade/DeMelo
FA-Heinola-Pionk (for one more yr max)
Stanley (if resigns)

Salomonsson hopefully replaces Pionk on 3rd pairing after a year with Moose. Draft pick(s) ideally replace DeMelo and FA in 3+ yrs.

 

[voyageur]

Offseason I'd like to see the Jets re-sign De Melo but also trade Nik for a top pairing d-man. Maybe replace Dillon with a guy like Forbort who is good on the PK, has some size, comes cheap and short term, and someone who might actually sign here, as he has before.

Morrissey-D2
Samberg-De Melo (shut down)
Forbort/Heinola-Pionk
Lundmark as #8.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Offseason I'd like to see the Jets re-sign De Melo but also trade Nik for a top pairing d-man. Maybe replace Dillon with a guy like Forbort who is good on the PK, has some size, comes cheap and short term, and someone who might actually sign here, as he has before.

Morrissey-D2
Samberg-De Melo (shut down)
Forbort/Heinola-Pionk
Lundmark as #8.

A top pairing D Man is worth a lot more than a Nik.

 

[raideralex99]

Jets drafting D men is a waste if they are not going to put them in the lineup ... losing them on waivers like Chisholm and Kovacevic makes no sense.
I'm not saying Chisholm and Kovacevic are the answer but the Jets would be a better team with those 2 instead of Schmidt and Pionk just saving $10M on the salary cap. Imagine what player(s) the Jets could sign for $10M.

 

[KingBogo]

Jets drafting D men is a waste if they are not going to pull them in the lineup ... losing them on waivers like Chisholm and Kovacevic makes no sense.
I'm not saying Chisholm and Kovacevic are the answer but the Jets would be a better team with those 2 instead of Schmidt and Pionk just saving $10M on the salary cap. Imagine what player(s) the Jets could sign for $10M.

Are you sure about that? Kovy was a healthy scratch at times on arguably the worst defense in the NHL. While both over paid Pionk and Schmidt played on the Jennings trophy winning team with strong defensive metrics, at least in the regular season. If either made less than $1M they would be seen as steals.

 

[Maukkis]

Are you sure about that? Kovy was a healthy scratch at times on arguably the worst defense in the NHL. While both over paid Pionk and Schmidt played on the Jennings trophy winning team with strong defensive metrics, at least in the regular season. If either made less than $1M they would be seen as steals.

If a team ices arguably the worst defense in the NHL, that team's ability to make the correct roster decisions absolutely needs to be questioned. Why are they stuck with the worst defense, and more importantly, what are they (not) doing to address the issue? You don't know about Kovacevic yet - for f***'s sake, try it out. Your defense is already the worst in the league, it cannot get much worse. But no.

That's the Jets' story in a nutshell. Everyone's happy to stick with the status quo, because they'd rather be bad than wrong. Being wrong can cost you your job, but here, being bad doesn't affect a thing (unless you're a prospect playing one of your five games you're given before the AHL purgatory continues, that is).

I see too many posters here get hyped about Heinola next year. Far too many.

 

[raideralex99]

Are you sure about that? Kovy was a healthy scratch at times on arguably the worst defense in the NHL. While both over paid Pionk and Schmidt played on the Jennings trophy winning team with strong defensive metrics, at least in the regular season. If either made less than $1M they would be seen as steals.

Schmidt was a healthy scratch too. I never said Kovy and Chisholm were the answer ... drafting, not playing and losing them on waivers is a problem.
Good goalies and forwards playing defensive structure was the main reason for the Jennings ... the Jets defense got exposed in the playoffs and ST.
Seriously Morrissey is the only top 4 D-man on the roster.
I know you can't fix everything in one year. The Jets made big strides from last year hopefully this year they fix the defense and special teams especially the PK.

 

[gojetsgo]

If a team ices arguably the worst defense in the NHL, that team's ability to make the correct roster decisions absolutely needs to be questioned. Why are they stuck with the worst defense, and more importantly, what are they (not) doing to address the issue? You don't know about Kovacevic yet - for f***'s sake, try it out. Your defense is already the worst in the league, it cannot get much worse. But no.

That's the Jets' story in a nutshell. Everyone's happy to stick with the status quo, because they'd rather be bad than wrong. Being wrong can cost you your job, but here, being bad doesn't affect a thing (unless you're a prospect playing one of your five games you're given before the AHL purgatory continues, that is).

I see too many posters here get hyped about Heinola next year. Far too many.

because they are in a rebuild? they are drafting them? I mean these are very simple questions to answer lol...

they don't know what they have in kovacevic? he's played 139 games for them but I guess you know more then them... there defense was one of the worst with him in those 139 games also

 

[WolfHouse]

I legit thought Miller was a great option for the Jets but there's no way he signs here after sitting out the last 1/4 of the season... that was fkn bizarre.

I fully expect Dillon gone and Heinola as our 3rd pairing LHD and that's it.

Chevy will say that Schmidt finished strong and looked good in the playoffs and that off ice issues affected Pionk... both are 'great guys in the room'

 

[voyageur]

because they are in a rebuild? they are drafting them? I mean these are very simple questions to answer lol...

they don't know what they have in kovacevic? he's played 139 games for them but I guess you know more then them... there defense was one of the worst with him in those 139 games also

If I was a betting man I'd say there is a decent chance the Jets could reclaim Kovacevic on waivers next year out of TC...don't think he'll get a lot of rope from Marty St. Louis. At this point I'm more intrigued to see if Simon Lundmark can make the next step. Fundamentally I think he's got the potential to be a better defenseman than Kovacevic

 

[tbcwpg]

If a team ices arguably the worst defense in the NHL, that team's ability to make the correct roster decisions absolutely needs to be questioned. Why are they stuck with the worst defense, and more importantly, what are they (not) doing to address the issue? You don't know about Kovacevic yet - for f***'s sake, try it out. Your defense is already the worst in the league, it cannot get much worse. But no.

Maybe it's the people they have playing defence for them. Kovacevic is also at least 3 years older than the guys they're looking to give experience to so I'd think they've (correctly) identified that Kovacevic is what he is at this point in his career at 26 years old.

 

[ocdaddy]

The biggest offseason move is: move Pionk off the roster. Trade (retain some salary) or buyout. Too shitty for too long. Send a message to the team that you're serious about winning and not just plugging holes by overpaying players that 'want to play here'.

Fill his spot with a FA signing. A 3rd pairing RHD will be fine with 1 or 2 years of term until Solmondson is ready.

 

[CorgisPer60]

They'd get a lot of relief if they bought out both Pionk and Schmidt, but they won't. They'll buy out Schmidt and either trade Pionk or ride him for one more year.

 

[Whileee]

They'd get a lot of relief if they bought out both Pionk and Schmidt, but they won't. They'll buy out Schmidt and either trade Pionk or ride him for one more year.

I agree. I think it's pretty clear that the Jets' coaches and management have a much higher opinion of Pionk than Schmidt (remember that Arniel coached the D, so usage last season is a good indicator of his viewpoint).

My guess is that the Jets will seek to buy out Schmidt (if they can't trade him), but will hold onto Pionk for another year. I'm okay with Pionk as an expensive 3rd pair RD, as long as they can find better RD options for the top 2 pairs.

 

[10Ducky10]

They'd get a lot of relief if they bought out both Pionk and Schmidt, but they won't. They'll buy out Schmidt and either trade Pionk or ride him for one more year.

Wheeler is on the books one more season so they can only buy out one more player.

 

[Buffdog]

The biggest offseason move is: move Pionk off the roster. Trade (retain some salary) or buyout. Too shitty for too long. Send a message to the team that you're serious about winning and not just plugging holes by overpaying players that 'want to play here'.

Fill his spot with a FA signing. A 3rd pairing RHD will be fine with 1 or 2 years of term until Solmondson is ready.

If Demelo doesn't re-sign, buying out Pionk would mean that we have zero right-shot defensemen

I think he'd be better suited to a sheltered 3rd pairing role. Or, try him with Samberg.. in a very small sample size of 151 minutes, their xGF% was 58.9% vs 45% with Dillon over 900 minutes

See, I don't hate analytics. This is an example of where they come in handy. But the weird thing about them is that you can't label Pionk a good or bad player based on those two numbers, since they contradict (sample size notwithstanding). Instead, you have to look at that and compare ro the eye test and see what shakes out

 

[tbcwpg]

The choice wasn't Dillon or Pionk. It was Dillon wants a bunch of money and has no contract.