Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[DRW204]

I dont see it. Compared to his peers on the team, he did roughly as well in xGF% in his first year as his second. His xGF/60 stayed at about the same level, while his xGA/60 decreased, but that can probably largely be attributed to being removed from a partner who played one more NHL game after his Jets stint.

His xGF% of 45.09% in his first year as a Jet wasn't good in a vacuum. But no other Jets Dman who played more than 20 games (i.e. ignoring Dahlström and 10 games of DeMelo) did better.

sorry but the comparison to rest of the team's dmen when he's basically more or less the same xGF%, or notably xGA/60 as the likes of sbisa, bitetto, bealuieu or kulikov is hardly a glowing compliment. if the CDN Div year was more of his career norm/stats than surely most of his career would be closer to that in terms of on-ice play - notably on the defensive side. but i don't think that is the case. being a tick better than a set of awful dmen makes you what exactly? i will say, perhaps last year was a bit of an outlier on the negative side. like he might not be that bad. he did have his best partner to date and rated poorly. but i think the margin is still not as big as the CDN division was.

furthermore:
couple of the primary partners in recent years seem to have flourished away from Pionk. Kulikov rated favorably this year. Sbisa for sure is horrible, dunno what our org was thinking. Dillon away from Pionk (even with it being next to Stanley or Schmidt primarily - 2 much maligned dmen around here) rated better as well. Looking back: Dillon prior to being paired w/ Pionk rated quite strong defensively most years. ill leave out Forbort since it looks like he was paired with Mcavoy this past year and that is truly an unfair comparison for Pionk to reach.

The underlying stats seem to view it this way too. his other 3 full years (not including 17-18) are closer to each other with a varying quality of partners.

i think he, and most of our top-4D will probably always rate favorable in xGF though. being behind the likes of ehlers/connor/pld/wheeler/scheifele/ even stastny in years passed will score you high on-ice xGF since ~80-85% of xGF is generated by Fwds. i also think there's a high chance that if Pionk continues his chaotic defensive play that Bowness dog-houses him early.

not sure if you follow GAR but:
also his player cards which is a tabulation of precentile rankings of on-ice offense and defense, as well as Special Teams play among Dmen, portray a similar trend

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My bad, that makes a lot more sense.

I always got the vibe if the Jets were too trade a defenseman it would be Heinola, granted I think a reason for that would be because he’s probably bring a good return.

Heinola is still an unproven prospect. The longer he takes to make the NHL the less he is worth. I think you would be disappointed in the return if he was traded now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Demelo is likely easier to trade. Lower cap hit. He's a good 3rd pairing guy ideally tho. Can't play top 2 as he provides zero offence

He is still the best RD we have, including LHS who play the right side. After Morrissey, he is the last Dman I would trade.

You're right that he is no good offensively, but at least he is good at something. The others we have are better offensively, but still not great and weak or worse defensively.

 

[bennylundholm]

Stanley has to be the odd man out right now.
He can't turn to his right and is a step slow all over the ice.

 

[SSCBLUEJET]

A cynical person would say he got complacent after signing his big deal. Kind of like how I got fat after I got married lol.

I don't think that's it. I think he lost his nerve after the injury/suspension thing. Hopefully Bowness can engineer a Days of Thunder moment where he 'blows through the smoke' and regains his confidence. He isn't the same player without his edge.

Nah, I see Bowness as a cougar in the back seat ala Talladega Knights, kind of guy.
Drive scared Ville-Bobby

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Demelo……Morrissey
Pionk…… Dillon
Kovecevic…. Samberg
Schultz…… Stanley

Heinola …..Chisholm On Moose until trade during the season opens up a spot!

 

[WolfHouse]

Hard to single out a player based on last years performance when we had two coaches each lose the room

 

[Monty9]

.... or if Pionk can get his JoMo back, allowing JoMo his own mojo -- most likely via DMlo.

Pionk has only had 1 year of mojo in his career, last year was Pionk being Pionk.

 

[10Ducky10]

Demelo……Morrissey
Pionk…… Dillon
Kovecevic…. Samberg
Schultz…… Stanley

Heinola …..Chisholm On Moose until trade during the season opens up a spot!

Sargent Schultz?

JMo Pionk
Dillon Schmidt
Samberg DeMelo

or switch DD with Pionk

 

[DRW204]

Stanley has to be the odd man out right now.
He can't turn to his right and is a step slow all over the ice.

According to fans maybe. But I don't think so from the org. And based on some commentary on here or Twitter it doesn't seem like either heinola or Samberg have necessarily leaped of the page in a good way (ill defer to others since I haven't watched pre season).

I had a feeling both heinola and samberg might not have made the roster last year, and seems like this year too. Neither could crack the roster - notably samberg since he's a couple years older than heinola - with a weaker depth chart. Now you add Dillon, and Schmidt, who are either of those two youngins usurping?

Ppl on here kept telling me they're gonna trade a d for a middle-6 fwd... When? Wouldn't it have behoove them to get them in early into a new team /system?

 

[voyageur]

According to fans maybe. But I don't think so from the org. And based on some commentary on here or Twitter it doesn't seem like either heinola or Samberg have necessarily leaped of the page in a good way (ill defer to others since I haven't watched pre season).

I had a feeling both heinola and samberg might not have made the roster last year, and seems like this year too. Neither could crack the roster - notably samberg since he's a couple years older than heinola - with a weaker depth chart. Now you add Dillon, and Schmidt, who are either of those two youngins usurping?

Ppl on here kept telling me they're gonna trade a d for a middle-6 fwd... When? Wouldn't it have behoove them to get them in early into a new team /system?

I don't know, having 8 "quality" defensemen over an 82 game season isn't necesarily a problem. Injuries often come in bunches, so I think confidently the coaching staff wants to see what they can get out of these players in different scenarios, play to their strengths. The nature of the players injured would have an impact on who is asked to play what role. For sure if Pionk went down you'd want Heinola in that spot. If De Melo went down, Samberg would get more time. It will be interesting come opening day to see what is more valued, a dynamic PP guy like Heinola, or a PKer like Samberg, based on who else is on the roster. I wonder if we'll see 7 d-men used at times if it is a way to get some ice time and different combinations on ice.

After those 8 d-men Chisholm is someone who I expect improvement on. 1 NHL game against Detroit is hardly a measuring stick. Maybe he gets a chance this year. If Heinola moves up maybe gets minutes and reps on special teams with the Moose.

Kovacevic seems to be here for the long run, but maybe on the Moose to start. Although if Stanley won the opening day spot, I think there is at least a chance that Kovacevic could dress as #7 and be a good teammate.

Capobianco is probably #9 to start the season. I don't have an opinion on him yet. Does anyone see anything one way or another?

Lundmark is a player I expect to improve. Skating is good.

Gawanke is probably in his last year in the organization. He should get a fresh start somewhere else where the depth chart is more favourable to him.

Where's the cutoff for serviceable defensemen (10 maybe 11)?. Let's hope we don't lose 5 starting defensemen like the first year the Jets made the playoffs.

 

[bennylundholm]

According to fans maybe. But I don't think so from the org. And based on some commentary on here or Twitter it doesn't seem like either heinola or Samberg have necessarily leaped of the page in a good way (ill defer to others since I haven't watched pre season).

I had a feeling both heinola and samberg might not have made the roster last year, and seems like this year too. Neither could crack the roster - notably samberg since he's a couple years older than heinola - with a weaker depth chart. Now you add Dillon, and Schmidt, who are either of those two youngins usurping?

Ppl on here kept telling me they're gonna trade a d for a middle-6 fwd... When? Wouldn't it have behoove them to get them in early into a new team /system?

Good points.

 

[DRW204]

This top 4

I don't love Stanley-pionk together as I don't think either are great or have shown consistently defensively. However given their third pair, less share of mins or responsibility i think you can get away with it if the top 4 performs as I expect it too.

 

[lomiller1]

Sargent Schultz?

JMo Pionk
Dillon Schmidt
Samberg DeMelo

or switch DD with Pionk

Using DeMelo to shelter Samberg is a waste and a JoMo Pionk pairing is likely to be a train wreck. Everyone DeMelo is with plays better so in the absence of a real #1/#2 D-man on the right side he needs to be on the top pair.

 

[DRW204]

if neither samberg or stanley can hold down a 3rd pair on their own.... what exactly are they? they're in their draft+7 and draft+6 years. at this point they should probably be able to handle that w/o demelo to some competency

demelo needs to be on the top pair. we need a strong top pair since they're taking on the majority of the minutes/critical situations.

 

[WolfHouse]

This top 4

I don't love Stanley-pionk together as I don't think either are great or have shown consistently defensively. However given their third pair, less share of mins or responsibility i think you can get away with it if the top 4 performs as I expect it too.

Kind of a waste putting Toninato as C with Perfetti and Lambert

 

[DRW204]

looks like these are our d groups to start

the top pair should be good.... all demelo does is defend extremely well almost no matter who he is with or in what role. not much to really say here.

the 2nd pair: on paper i had the highest hopes for at the beg. of last year. Pionk was fantastic in the CDN Div year and was our top dman that season, & Dillon had a track-record of good defensive play the previous few years leading up to his Jets debut. I have a bit of reservations on Pionk's game based on his career-to-date but we need desperately need semblance of that CDN Div. play.

3rd pair: didn't really work well last year.

at least this makes the comparison vs last year pretty easy lol

 

[voyageur]

looks like these are our d groups to start

the top pair should be good.... all demelo does is defend extremely well almost no matter who he is with or in what role. not much to really say here.

the 2nd pair: on paper i had the highest hopes for at the beg. of last year. Pionk was fantastic in the CDN Div year and was our top dman that season, & Dillon had a track-record of good defensive play the previous few years leading up to his Jets debut. I have a bit of reservations on Pionk's game based on his career-to-date but we need desperately need semblance of that CDN Div. play.

3rd pair: didn't really work well last year.

at least this makes the comparison vs last year pretty easy lol

View attachment 593592

I know it's not conventional but I'd like to see the Jets dress 7 defensemen against the Rangers, Samberg is a player I think would be up to the challenge of negating their PP which is the biggest threat. Stanley might be a threat to score if he gets a shot through. You can coach some different pairings with 7 d-men, rotate Dillon-Schmidt in at times, Samberg-Pionk, Stanley-De Melo, Samberg-Schmidt, Morrissey-Schmidt etc. From what I saw Dillon-Pionk probably play the most behind Lowry's line. I'm not too concerned with last year's stats with a completely different coaching staff and system. If Stanley gets the call, it might be to take Reaves off the ice if he starts running around.

 

[LowLefty]

if neither samberg or stanley can hold down a 3rd pair on their own.... what exactly are they?

Throw one of them out there and be done with it -
If we didn't have all these less than ideal options, this point wouldn't come up or have been discussed a few hundred time (nothing against your post - but it says a lot)

Our Blueline backbone appears to be Demelo - what does that tell you about the rest as far as supporting a #6 in that bottom pairing.
Love Demelo but honestly - we don't have much defense on our defense after him.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Stanley has to be the odd man out right now.
He can't turn to his right and is a step slow all over the ice.

 

[Jet]

Throw one of them out there and be done with it -
If we didn't have all these less than ideal options, this point wouldn't come up or have been discussed a few hundred time (nothing against your post - but it says a lot)

Our Blueline backbone appears to be Demelo - what does that tell you about the rest as far as supporting a #6 in that bottom pairing.
Love Demelo but honestly - we don't have much defense on our defense after him.

Morrissey is an excellent defender and Dillion is no slouch either

 

[gojetsgo]

Morrissey is an excellent defender and Dillion is no slouch either

we were so unorganized as a team last year, I remember cassidy saying something about how our d would play far away from the next for w/e reason, I think under bowness we will be way more oganized and will actually get a sense if our defense is good or not

 

[LowLefty]

Morrissey is an excellent defender and Dillion is no slouch either

True - both neither of these two can help out on the third line with our LHD all waiting for a shot without the expectation of anchoring the 3rd pairing.

Everyone's fighting over Demelo as he appears to be the guy that makes everyone better - including JoMo.
(and it makes sense to power up that top pair).

I guess that's the point - throw one of the guys in the running for the 6th spot and don't expect him to be anchoring the line when Smitty and Pionk are not expected to in their respective pairing.

 

[Jet]

True - both neither of these two can help out on the third line with our LHD all waiting for a shot without the expectation of anchoring the 3rd pairing.

Everyone's fighting over Demelo as he appears to be the guy that makes everyone better - including JoMo.
(and it makes sense to power up that top pair).

I guess that's the point - throw one of the guys in the running for the 6th spot and don't expect him to be anchoring the line when Smitty and Pionk are not expected to in their respective pairing.

I hope that Snerg gets his chance early and plays so well he just doesn't give Stanley a chance to get back in. Then you can roll an offensive/defensive 3 pair set:

Morrissey- DeMelo
Dillon - Pionk
Snerg - Schmidt

I also think this hinges on the winger dropping back when the defenseman is going for it. We've already seen this in exhibition (heck even Schiefele) .

 

[LowLefty]

I hope that Snerg gets his chance early and plays so well he just doesn't give Stanley a chance to get back in. Then you can roll an offensive/defensive 3 pair set:

Morrissey- DeMelo
Dillon - Pionk
Snerg - Schmidt

I also think this hinges on the winger dropping back when the defenseman is going for it. We've already seen this in exhibition (heck even Schiefele) .

I agree that the 6th spot needs to be a defensive Dman -
I also believe the org is looking for a certain type of game from Stan and it's not offense -
He may not be able to provide that game - in that case, Snerg has a huge opportunity to take that spot and keep it.

It's pretty obvious that the org is trying to transition their big damn into a D first player - why else would you pair him with Smitty. You know that his size is a factor they want to exploit. But the skill has to be there or it's a dream.

I think Bones is going to work hard to make this square peg fit into a round hole - but in the end, even a Stan fan like myself understands the odds are long on Stan getting up to speed (literally) before Snerg is in the lineup.

I want to see the best D group iced - and I don't think the Jets think otherwise - so your lineup is likely where the dust settles - soon.