Player Discussion William Nylander

[Gary Nylund]

My speculation.
The overpay is:

1. backpay
2. bonus for locking in for 8 years

I don't know about backpay, the 8 years definitely matters.

...
Matthews is shorter so he can increase his compensation in 4 years.
marner will likely follow suit, and hope for another increase to not fall behind Matthews.
...
I don't see any success coming from these players, without Treliving landing another top 6 forward.

And that's why Marner should cap out at 12, maybe 12.5 tops if he only signs for 5 years.

I don't see any success coming from these players, without Treliving landing another top 6 forward.

You mean like Tavares?

 

[Confucius]

I don't know about backpay, the 8 years definitely matters.

And that's why Marner should cap out at 12, maybe 12.5 tops if he only signs for 5 years.


You mean like Tavares?

I wouldn’t offer that but anyway wouldn’t we pay less on a shorter term. If I thought he was worth 12,5 that would be for 8 years, if you only want a 5 year deal no way I’m paying a higher AAV, Years 5 to 8 I’d know you are in for 12,5, on a shorter deal you’ll want even more, next time.

 

[hamzarocks]

Wow, that's pretty good for a guy with a 7m cap hit. Weird that you think he's now overpaid by 3-4 million, agree to disagree.

I guess you won't acknowledge a difference between putting up 50 pts in 50 games and 57 pts in 39 games.

Is a ppg player in 2024-2025 worth 11.5M to you?

What comparable player gets paid 11.5M and puts so low numbers?

If he was at 7M id have no isues with a 75-85 pt season

He is at 11.5M though so there is a major expectation bump.

Marner was a ~100+ pt player per 82 at 10.93 for his 6 years. If he was at ppg he would be 3M overpaid as well.

People here are ignoring the last half of last year once he signed his deal and more importantly ignoring 50 games of this season under his new deal.

When is it fair to critique Nylander for not producing like he was before his contract signing (57 in 39)?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I guess you won't acknowledge a difference between putting up 50 pts in 50 games and 57 pts in 39 games.

LOL wut? Of course there is a difference, what are you on about?

Is a ppg player in 2024-2025 worth 11.5M to you?

Depends on how he does in the playoffs.

What comparable player gets paid 11.5M and puts so low numbers?

As I said earlier, you're at least a year early with this. It's an 8 year deal, we haven't even been through one playoff series yet. You're losing your mind for no good reason, just chill for a bit is my advice.

If he was at 7M id have no isues with a 75-85 pt season

I doubt anyone else would either.

He is at 11.5M though so there is a major expectation bump.

Seems obvious, I've said that many times.

Marner was a ~100+ pt player per 82 at 10.93 for his 6 years. If he was at ppg he would be 3M overpaid as well.

His production took a massive hit in the playoffs. He's maybe been an 11 million dollar player in the regular season and something much less than that in the playoffs.

People here are ignoring the last half of last year once he signed his deal and more importantly ignoring 50 games of this season under his new deal.

You really need to stop generalizing like that. I'm not ignoring anything, neither are most other people but there are some things that you're ignoring.

When is it fair to critique Nylander for not producing like he was before his contract signing (57 in 39)?

Did you really think he was going to be a ~ 120 point forward going forward? Really?

 

[thewave]

View attachment 968399

Looks like Willie and his dogs were having fun.

Wonder will the fans add Nylander to the Marner complaint with the Humane Society or will they file a seperate one and divide the outrage?

It's stupid and dangerous for anyone who put their dogs on ice. If you did or anyone else did it it's a dumb thing to do. It looks hilarious until Barky does the splits and is limping for a week and needs surgery. I know, I have spent over 15k on surgeries to fix conditions on active dogs.

Willy is a dope for doing it too. Not social outrage, not reporting people but calling stupid stupid.

 

[hamzarocks]

LOL wut? Of course there is a difference, what are you on about?

Depends on how he does in the playoffs.

As I said earlier, you're at least a year early with this. It's an 8 year deal, we haven't even been through one playoff series yet. You're losing your mind for no good reason, just chill for a bit is my advice.

I doubt anyone else would either.

Seems obvious, I've said that many times.

His production took a massive hit in the playoffs. He's maybe been an 11 million dollar player in the regular season and something much less than that in the playoffs.

You really need to stop generalizing like that. I'm not ignoring anything, neither are most other people but there are some things that you're ignoring.

Did you really think he was going to be a ~ 120 point forward going forward? Really?

If he makes 11.5M he needs to be a 100+ forward at minimum

Do i think he can do it, no lile i've said before he doesnt have the IQ or skill to be amongst the best players in the league.

He is a tier 2/3 player.

Him chasing 11.5M and squeezing every last penny deserves high expectations.

He needs to win the conn smythe if he will be a ~ppg player only at 11.5M AAV

At this point I'll circle back to what he finishes this year in pts and then playoffs. If he picks it up and/or Nylander goes off in playoffs I'll admit im wrong.

The playoffs will be key for him as a 3 pt in 4 games won't be enough this time around. Whole cores legacies lasts in these playoffs

 

[Gary Nylund]

If he makes 11.5M he needs to be a 100+ forward at minimum

Do i think he can do it, no lile i've said before he doesnt have the IQ or skill to be amongst the best players in the league.

He is a tier 2/3 player.

Him chasing 11.5M and squeezing every last penny deserves high expectations.

He needs to win the conn smythe if he will be a ~ppg player only at 11.5M AAV

At this point I'll circle back to what he finishes this year in pts and then playoffs. If he picks it up and/or Nylander goes off in playoffs I'll admit im wrong.

The playoffs will be key for him as a 3 pt in 4 games won't be enough this time around. Whole cores legacies lasts in these playoffs

Wait 3-4 years, see how he's playing then, see how many other players have the same cap hit and see how they're performing, then we'll have enough data to at least begin to form an opinion on how good/bad his contract is.

Right now, the main question is this:
Do we have enough data to form an intelligent opinion on this matter?

The correct answer is - we do not.

 

[IPS]

It's stupid and dangerous for anyone who put their dogs on ice. If you did or anyone else did it it's a dumb thing to do. It looks hilarious until Barky does the splits and is limping for a week and needs surgery. I know, I have spent over 15k on surgeries to fix conditions on active dogs.

Willy is a dope for doing it too. Not social outrage, not reporting people but calling stupid stupid.

All strictly for dumbass social media vanity reasons too.

 

[ULF_55]

It's stupid and dangerous for anyone who put their dogs on ice. If you did or anyone else did it it's a dumb thing to do. It looks hilarious until Barky does the splits and is limping for a week and needs surgery. I know, I have spent over 15k on surgeries to fix conditions on active dogs.

Willy is a dope for doing it too. Not social outrage, not reporting people but calling stupid stupid.

I don't get skiing either.

How much is lost in productivity from skiers being injured.
Hospitals are overburdened as it is and people go do dangerous activities and we citizens end up paying for it.

Just too many stupid people out there taking advantage like Willy is ... well except our taxes don't pay that $15k to the vet. Seems like a dumb thing to have done, taking a dog out to run on the ice / frozen lakes.

 

[thewave]

I don't get skiing either.

How much is lost in productivity from skiers being injured.
Hospitals are overburdened as it is and people go do dangerous activities and we citizens end up paying for it.

Just too many stupid people out there taking advantage like Willy is ... well except our taxes don't pay that $15k to the vet. Seems like a dumb thing to have done, taking a dog out to run on the ice / frozen lakes.

TBH super high risks should probably require private insurance. No need for the taxpayer to take that on. Skiing is certainly the worst of the worst, probably should sell insurance at the hill for the season or by the day.

Nylander and Marner should eject their steel and go crazy on the ice in their plastic for a bit. Good times, we can laugh while they pull their groin and crawl around on all fours. That would be an awesome media event.

It was a gimmick, hope none of the dogs blew a wheel and got hurt

 

[hamzarocks]

Wait 3-4 years, see how he's playing then, see how many other players have the same cap hit and see how they're performing, then we'll have enough data to at least begin to form an opinion on how good/bad his contract is.

Right now, the main question is this:
Do we have enough data to form an intelligent opinion on this matter?

The correct answer is - we do not.

3 to 4 years???

My god are you serious? You don't need to wait 3-4 years to call out a player for not performing.

This is some next level delusion.

I guess Matthews can be a 70 pt player this year and next and we can't say its a bad deal.

A contract is judged numerous times throughout its existence

1. When its signed, past performance + future predictive value is used to assess along with internal + external comparables --> Nylander comes heavily overpaid at 11.5M as a 1 time 98 pt player in his career

2. Season by season as the contract is played through. So far through 50 games of Y1 its been a disasterclass as nylanders reverted down to a ppg player which is little better than what he gave us when he was at 7M from 2019-2020 to 2021-2022.

3. Playoffs if you want to value majority of the contract on just playoff games. This remains to be seen and is Nylander's potential saving grace if he can perform well here AND win us a few series's with his performance.

 

[GoonieFace]

3 to 4 years???

My god are you serious? You don't need to wait 3-4 years to call out a player for not performing.

This is some next level delusion.

I guess Matthews can be a 70 pt player this year and next and we can't say its a bad deal.

A contract is judged numerous times throughout its existence

1. When its signed, past performance + future predictive value is used to assess along with internal + external comparables --> Nylander comes heavily overpaid at 11.5M as a 1 time 98 pt player in his career

2. Season by season as the contract is played through. So far through 50 games of Y1 its been a disasterclass as nylanders reverted down to a ppg player which is little better than what he gave us when he was at 7M from 2019-2020 to 2021-2022.

3. Playoffs if you want to value majority of the contract on just playoff games. This remains to be seen and is Nylander's potential saving grace if he can perform well here AND win us a few series's with his performance.

Being 3rd in the NHL in goals is a disasterclass? Nice

 

[LeafEgo]

What comparable player gets paid 11.5M and puts so low numbers?

Probably all of them if they were deployed the same way.

Check this out:

Kuch - 1st line
Pasta - 1st line
Ranta - 1st line
Chucky - 1st line
Kirill - 1st line
J Rob - 1st line
Panarin - 1st line
Ovi - 1st line
Reinhart - 1st line
Connor - 1st line
Forsberg - 1st line
Guentzel - 1st line
Stone - 1st line
Marner - 1st line
Willy - 2nd line

 

[Gallagbi]

Probably all of them if they were deployed the same way.

Check this out:

Kuch - 1st line
Pasta - 1st line
Ranta - 1st line
Chucky - 1st line
Kirill - 1st line
J Rob - 1st line
Panarin - 1st line
Ovi - 1st line
Reinhart - 1st line
Connor - 1st line
Forsberg - 1st line
Guentzel - 1st line
Stone - 1st line
Marner - 1st line
Willy - 2nd line

You worried about linemates? Because Willy leads our forwards in ES and PP time per game

Reinhart and Tkachuk don't typically play on the same line btw, but you have both as first line

 

[Jojalu]

3 to 4 years???

My god are you serious? You don't need to wait 3-4 years to call out a player for not performing.

This is some next level delusion.

I guess Matthews can be a 70 pt player this year and next and we can't say its a bad deal.

A contract is judged numerous times throughout its existence

1. When its signed, past performance + future predictive value is used to assess along with internal + external comparables --> Nylander comes heavily overpaid at 11.5M as a 1 time 98 pt player in his career

2. Season by season as the contract is played through. So far through 50 games of Y1 its been a disasterclass as nylanders reverted down to a ppg player which is little better than what he gave us when he was at 7M from 2019-2020 to 2021-2022.

3. Playoffs if you want to value majority of the contract on just playoff games. This remains to be seen and is Nylander's potential saving grace if he can perform well here AND win us a few series's with his performance.

You can think Nylander is being overpaid without all the rest. It is not a disaster when you are third in the league in scoring goals. I think you are the firat person I have read that said Nylander lacks talent.

Scoring goals at a 40+ pace for 3 straight years is going to get you paid. I didn't like the 11.5 myself as a winger who is not so great in his own end, but it's by no means a disaster.

 

[Menzinger]

I guess you won't acknowledge a difference between putting up 50 pts in 50 games and 57 pts in 39 games.

Is a ppg player in 2024-2025 worth 11.5M to you?

What comparable player gets paid 11.5M and puts so low numbers?

If he was at 7M id have no isues with a 75-85 pt season

He is at 11.5M though so there is a major expectation bump.

Marner was a ~100+ pt player per 82 at 10.93 for his 6 years. If he was at ppg he would be 3M overpaid as well.

People here are ignoring the last half of last year once he signed his deal and more importantly ignoring 50 games of this season under his new deal.

When is it fair to critique Nylander for not producing like he was before his contract signing (57 in 39)?

You're never going to sign an 85 point for anywhere near 7 or even 8 million dollars now.

The issue here is your player valuations are fairly off and not accounting for the fact the cap is rising, and continuing to rise.

Your arguments would carry more weight if you were focusing on cap% rather than aav.

Like yes Kessel signed for 8 million a decade ago. When the cap was 70ish million. It's going to well passed 90 next season (probably closer to 100 than 90 even).

 

[hamzarocks]

Probably all of them if they were deployed the same way.

Check this out:

Kuch - 1st line
Pasta - 1st line
Ranta - 1st line
Chucky - 1st line
Kirill - 1st line
J Rob - 1st line
Panarin - 1st line
Ovi - 1st line
Reinhart - 1st line
Connor - 1st line
Forsberg - 1st line
Guentzel - 1st line
Stone - 1st line
Marner - 1st line
Willy - 2nd line

Nylander plays 20 minutes a game

Look at that list of players and you want find many guys playing more than a minute or two than nylander at most

He also doesnt have heavy PK duties like some of those guys which will impact his offensive output further as he'd have more minutes playing defense than going for offense.

Here is the facts

Nylander:

Goals --> 3rd in total goals, 5th in GPG (Point and Kaprizov jump him) - per NHL.com

Assists --> 83rd in assists, outside top 50 in apg (NHL.com doesnt seem to show APG)

Pts --> 27th in pts, 36th in ppg (per NHL.com)

TOI --> 32nd in TOI/game for forwards (less than 1 minute difference between him 15th ranked Travis Konecny (per NHL.com)

AAV --> tied for 6th highest AAV (11.5M with EK65) and 13th in AAV as % of 2024 salary cap (per spotrac.com)

He is not high enough for league wide producers when factoring his AAV and high TOI per game.

 

[hamzarocks]

You're never going to sign an 85 point for anywhere near 7 or even 8 million dollars now.

The issue here is your player valuations are fairly off and not accounting for the fact the cap is rising, and continuing to rise.

Your arguments would carry more weight if you were focusing on cap% rather than aav.

Like yes Kessel signed for 8 million a decade ago. When the cap was 70ish million. It's going to well passed 90 next season (probably closer to 100 than 90 even).

The issue isnt kessel at 8M vs Nylandee at 8M

The issue is kessel is a superior player than nylander in my opinion and he had to be dropped to 3rd to 5th best player to win a cup(2) with the pens.

Nylander producing poorly after his contract like kessel did his first year isnt a good sign.

The pens needed kessel retained down to 6.8M (85%) of his original AAV to be able to fit him in and win

Nylander at 85% is around 9.78M which is better value for him and more realistic of the type of player he is.

We don't have anyone coming to bail us out and retain down nearly 2M on his deal

 

[LeafEgo]

You worried about linemates? Because Willy leads our forwards in ES and PP time per game

Reinhart and Tkachuk don't typically play on the same line btw, but you have both as first line

It was more a striking point that Willys are typically deployed in a more efficient way, across the board, and there is a lot of reason behind that.

I'm worried, that Willys zone entries, passes, rushes, and finding space go to waste instead of being converted on at an unacceptable rate - particularly when we need a goal. It needs to be cleaned up if we want to leverage our most potent scoring resources at 100%. Otherwise you miss out on production and hamza goes nuts.

They are both on the first line right now. I think it's Chucky that has fallen to 2nd line at times this year, and he's below a ppg this year.

 

[hamzarocks]

You can think Nylander is being overpaid without all the rest. It is not a disaster when you are third in the league in scoring goals. I think you are the firat person I have read that said Nylander lacks talent.

Scoring goals at a 40+ pace for 3 straight years is going to get you paid. I didn't like the 11.5 myself as a winger who is not so great in his own end, but it's by no means a disaster.

The talent to be a 11.5M (top 10 player) in the league.

He has never shown that ability outside of his dominant first half last year.

He was always seen a secondary tier player like Fiala, Ehlers, Bratt etc., and no on expected him to be making 13% of the cap (11.5M) when he had 1 ppg season in his career before his contract year.

He isnt a guy you can drive his own line like Pastranak the past few years because he isnt able to faciliate and create looks for middle end players (Geekie, Zacha, Frederic, etc)

He is the opposite of a guy like Marner who can create a lot of plays and get invovled in offense for his linemates. Nylander has been playing iso-centric hockey this year. Focused on getting rushes, breakaways and trying to dcore but isnt creating for his teammates like the last few seasons.

He is trying to play hero hockey and it isnt working with 50 pts through 50 games.

It was more a striking point that Willys are typically deployed in a more efficient way, across the board, and there is a lot of reason behind that.

I'm worried, that Willys zone entries, passes, rushes, and finding space go to waste instead of being converted on at an unacceptable rate - particularly when we need a goal. It needs to be cleaned up if we want to leverage our most potent scoring resources at 100%. Otherwise you miss out on production and hamza goes nuts.

They are both on the first line right now. I think it's Chucky that has fallen to 2nd line at times this year, and he's below a ppg this year.

Heres hoping nylander drops 40 pts these next 32 games so I can f*** off lol

Might have to set up a "how overpaid is Nylander thread". The Tavares thread I created last year backfired from the perspective of him sucking with this being a great year for what looked like a pretty washed player last year.

If nylander finishes strong and has a good playoffs, 50 games with below expeted production won't matter.

He has to turn it on now though. Only 32 games left on the season

 

[Gary Nylund]

3 to 4 years???

My god are you serious? You don't need to wait 3-4 years to call out a player for not performing.

This is some next level delusion.

I guess Matthews can be a 70 pt player this year and next and we can't say its a bad deal.

A contract is judged numerous times throughout its existence

1. When its signed, past performance + future predictive value is used to assess along with internal + external comparables --> Nylander comes heavily overpaid at 11.5M as a 1 time 98 pt player in his career

2. Season by season as the contract is played through. So far through 50 games of Y1 its been a disasterclass as nylanders reverted down to a ppg player which is little better than what he gave us when he was at 7M from 2019-2020 to 2021-2022.

3. Playoffs if you want to value majority of the contract on just playoff games. This remains to be seen and is Nylander's potential saving grace if he can perform well here AND win us a few series's with his performance.

My lands, are you ever melodramatic.

I called out Nylander myself, he's having a disappointing season so far. But he's too early into an 8 year deal for anyone to say that it's a bad contract, and he's 3-4 million overpaid the way you did.

Saying Nylander is overpaid by 3-4 million, now that's next level delusion. It's not possible to take you seriously when you're spewing this kind of nonsense.

Calm down.

 

[CelticDruid]

The talent to be a 11.5M (top 10 player) in the league.

He has never shown that ability outside of his dominant first half last year.

He was always seen a secondary tier player like Fiala, Ehlers, Bratt etc., and no on expected him to be making 13% of the cap (11.5M) when he had 1 ppg season in his career before his contract year.

He isnt a guy you can drive his own line like Pastranak the past few years because he isnt able to faciliate and create looks for middle end players (Geekie, Zacha, Frederic, etc)

He is the opposite of a guy like Marner who can create a lot of plays and get invovled in offense for his linemates. Nylander has been playing iso-centric hockey this year. Focused on getting rushes, breakaways and trying to dcore but isnt creating for his teammates like the last few seasons.

He is trying to play hero hockey and it isnt working with 50 pts through 50 games.


Heres hoping nylander drops 40 pts these next 32 games so I can f*** off lol

Might have to set up a "how overpaid is Nylander thread". The Tavares thread I created last year backfired from the perspective of him sucking with this being a great year for what looked like a pretty washed player last year.

If nylander finishes strong and has a good playoffs, 50 games with below expeted production won't matter.

He has to turn it on now though. Only 32 games left on the season

Can't carry his own line?



What a ridiculous rant.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If he makes 11.5M he needs to be a 100+ forward at minimum

He hit 98 last year, only one point less than Marner's best, while playing with second liners instead of first liners (including the best goal scorer in the league).

If Willy isn't worth 11.5 (he isn't, more like 10) then what is Mitch worth?

 

[ACC1224]

REALLY, WILLY? Nylander to open Willy Good Cake Shop at Union Station

The Maple Leafs star announced on X that he’s teaming with Oreo to launch the Willy Good Cake Shop at Union Station in Toronto.

torontosun.com

Nylander then says, “I’ve been getting more and more into baked goods, so I thought I’d open my own cake shop.” He is then asked, “What kind of cakes?” His reply: “Willy Good ones.”

 

[mclaren55]

It's stupid and dangerous for anyone who put their dogs on ice. If you did or anyone else did it it's a dumb thing to do. It looks hilarious until Barky does the splits and is limping for a week and needs surgery. I know, I have spent over 15k on surgeries to fix conditions on active dogs.

Willy is a dope for doing it too. Not social outrage, not reporting people but calling stupid stupid.

My dog couldn't wait to get on the ice with me every winter and never once injured himself playing hockey with me. Maybe your dogs aren't athletic enough. He was a 105lb German Shepherd and was incredibly agile out there.

Sounds like you've had horrible luck.