Will the Blues get a top 10 pick at next years draft?

[Linkens Mastery]

I still haven't voted, but I'm torn between 'make the playoffs' and 'just miss the playoffs.' I would bet on us making the playoffs before I bet on us to pick top 10.

I think the bottom 6 forward group got noticeably better offensively and defensively. I also see a group capable of playing faster and more physical than last year's group. And I see enough organizational depth (and bottom 6ers with potential upside) to withstand a couple injuries. We were fortunate to avoid injuries last year, but I think this year's group is more capable of sliding up the lineup than last year's was.

This is massively important because the top line wasn't the problem last year. Thomas, Kyrou, and Buch were +18, +8, and +6 respectively at 5 on 5 last season. Torpo, Sunny, Kap, MacMac, Vrana, Alexandrov, Blais, and Dean all had a GF% of 43% or worse last season with 5 of the 8 being in the 30s. The 2nd line also struggled, falling in the 45% to 47% range. I'm not sure if that will improve, but the drastic reconstruction of the bottom 6 should lead to a big change in how badly we got caved in when our top 3 forwards weren't on the ice.

I think we have an actual NHL caliber D group this year. P.O Joseph is an actual NHL D man. Suter is an actual NHL D man. I think Broberg is an actual NHL D man. It is going to be very interesting to see how we construct the blueline, but I see more potential combos to adequacy than we had last year.

I still like our goalie tandem a lot. I don't expect Binner to be as good as he was last year. That is much more a compliment of his play last year than a shot at what I think he can do this year. He can be the league's 5th best goalie this year and it would be a downgrade from what he was last year. But I think Hofer is capable of providing the same level of play as last year over an additional 5-10 starts. I expect another good year in net (even if it isn't the top 5 tandem performance we got last year).

All in all, I see a group that should be much better defensively than it was last year. I don't expect to be a top 10 defensive team in the league, but I don't expect us to be bottom 5 like last year. Simply moving up to the 20th-25th range in a lot of defensive metrics would go a long way to easing the burden on the goalies.

A couple things need to go right. We need 1-2 of the new guys to improve their game with a change of scenery. But if that happens, I see a team that should be on the right side of the playoff bubble. If those things don't go right, then I see a team that should be on the wrong side of the bubble. But I do think the bubble is where we should lane barring a ton of injuries.

I was like, what? Kyrou +8?.... then I remembered 6 GA PP and the completely terrible Stats with Empty net (-13)

 

[BadgersandBlues]

This is why I think it's important we let Thomas carry a line without Buch and Kyrou. I don't think Buch or Kyrou can carry the second line on their own, but Buch and Kyrou combined can. Thomas can play and frankly carry with almost anyone (Neighbors, Schenn, Bolduc, Saad, etc) and still produce. With the additions to the bottom 6 and the fact that we won't see Krug, Peru, and God willing Tucker hopefully at all this season on the defensive side of things makes me think we're going to press for a Wild Card.

One team I'm so not sold on is Nashville. They are one major injury from looking really thin. I think Stamkos is a bad acquisition for this year, sliding into terrible moving forward. Very interested to see what happens when all their players don't have career years (Like we did in Monty's one season here).

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

This is why I think it's important we let Thomas carry a line without Buch and Kyrou. I don't think Buch or Kyrou can carry the second line on their own, but Buch and Kyrou combined can. Thomas can play and frankly carry with almost anyone (Neighbors, Schenn, Bolduc, Saad, etc) and still produce. With the additions to the bottom 6 and the fact that we won't see Krug, Peru, and God willing Tucker hopefully at all this season on the defensive side of things makes me think we're going to press for a Wild Card.

One team I'm so not sold on is Nashville. They are one major injury from looking really thin. I think Stamkos is a bad acquisition for this year, sliding into terrible moving forward. Very interested to see what happens when all their players don't have career years (Like we did in Monty's one season here).

If we are going to move up, it's Jets I expect to slide. I may be a bit biased, but to me Preds look pretty darn good.

 

[Ranksu]

This.

If goaltending will be shakey next season and injuries pile up. This team goes south quickly. We were lucky last season that goaltending was pretty good and didn't have toi much of major injuries.

I still view this.

If goaltending sucks and we see few major injuries this team goes south fast.

I hope we sunk bottom 10. We need to draft high to get good prospects.

Sell at TDL.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

If we are going to move up, it's Jets I expect to slide. I may be a bit biased, but to me Preds look pretty darn good.

And the Preds are stacked with prospects. They'll have an age disparity issue soon, but with the prospect cupboard being stuffed, they will be able to weather it much better than Dallas will.

 

[BlueSeal]

I think we surprise a lot of folks and make the playoffs by the skin of our teeth. Is this good? Is this bad? Is this Parkay? I have no idea, but I'll feel good about it and that's what matters to me . Also, it's long past time for Army to get that win and he's due.

 

[Thallis]

Anyone want to change their vote?

Nope. Suter, Broberg, Holloway are not needle movers for me and losing Krug might hurt the offensive side of the puck more than we've considered. I think we have real issues on both sides of the puck and we've collectively gaslit ourselves that the bottom 6 was the problem last season and that Broberg is an immediate difference maker on the back end.

 

[Brian39]

Nope. Suter, Broberg, Holloway are not needle movers for me and losing Krug might hurt the offensive side of the puck more than we've considered. I think we have real issues on both sides of the puck and we've collectively gaslit ourselves that the bottom 6 was the problem last season and that Broberg is an immediate difference maker on the back end.

We can debate where the bottom 6 landed on the scale of 'biggest' problems with the team and whether or not the pretty substantial personnel turnover from that group will improve the results. But there is really no argument that the bottom 6 wasn't a huge problem last year.

Our top 6 forwards of Thomas, Buch, Kyrou, Neighbours, Schenn, and Saad scored us 112 even strength goals while the entire rest of the forward group combined for 47.

Nashville got 101 even strength goals out of their top 6 scoring forwards and 67 from the rest.

LA got 109 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 52 from the rest.

Vegas got 111 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 64 from the rest.

The bottom 6 was far from the only problem with the team, but it was definitely a big problem.

 

[Thallis]

We can debate where the bottom 6 landed on the scale of 'biggest' problems with the team and whether or not the pretty substantial personnel turnover from that group will improve the results. But there is really no argument that the bottom 6 wasn't a huge problem last year.

Our top 6 forwards of Thomas, Buch, Kyrou, Neighbours, Schenn, and Saad scored us 112 even strength goals while the entire rest of the forward group combined for 47.

Nashville got 101 even strength goals out of their top 6 scoring forwards and 67 from the rest.

LA got 109 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 52 from the rest.

Vegas got 111 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 64 from the rest.

The bottom 6 was far from the only problem with the team, but it was definitely a big problem.

What's the per game basis of this, though? Our top 6 was almost perfectly healthy whereas most teams aren't that lucky. It makes our comparison very clean, vs other teams quite messy for who was top 6 and when, etc. To be clear I think the middle 6 was the primary problem that persists today. I think our top line is great and can be competitive with almost any team in hockey, but I don't think we have the horses below them to keep up.

 

[joe galiba]

We can debate where the bottom 6 landed on the scale of 'biggest' problems with the team and whether or not the pretty substantial personnel turnover from that group will improve the results. But there is really no argument that the bottom 6 wasn't a huge problem last year.

Our top 6 forwards of Thomas, Buch, Kyrou, Neighbours, Schenn, and Saad scored us 112 even strength goals while the entire rest of the forward group combined for 47.

Nashville got 101 even strength goals out of their top 6 scoring forwards and 67 from the rest.

LA got 109 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 52 from the rest.

Vegas got 111 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 64 from the rest.

The bottom 6 was far from the only problem with the team, but it was definitely a big problem.

I think our bottom 6 defensively was worse last year than they were offensively

 

[BleedBlue14]

We can debate where the bottom 6 landed on the scale of 'biggest' problems with the team and whether or not the pretty substantial personnel turnover from that group will improve the results. But there is really no argument that the bottom 6 wasn't a huge problem last year.

Our top 6 forwards of Thomas, Buch, Kyrou, Neighbours, Schenn, and Saad scored us 112 even strength goals while the entire rest of the forward group combined for 47.

Nashville got 101 even strength goals out of their top 6 scoring forwards and 67 from the rest.

LA got 109 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 52 from the rest.

Vegas got 111 even strength goals out of their top 6 forwards and 64 from the rest.

The bottom 6 was far from the only problem with the team, but it was definitely a big problem.

I agree,

But I also think part of our issue with our top 6 even though it seems to grade just fine 5v5 is none of them are real threats on the powerplay.


We scored 45 goals on the powerplay which ranked about 10th from last in the NHL.
Of those teams listed
Nashville: 58
LA: 56
Vegas: 51

While in general that's not a huge discrepancy, we're going to be going through a bit of a rework of our powerplay - for better or worse - with Krug out for an extended period of time. I would say in general you'd expect the number hopefully to balance out around league average, especially with most of our PP players being younger players and getting a little more experience in the roles. However, I'm not sure how much we can count on Perunovich replacing Krug on the PP, and I think we're going to give Broberg a pretty good look on the PP. I don't think they'll both be in the lineup much with the addition of Suter as well, unless we plan on not giving Suter much ice time.

Maybe Bolduc as a triggerman can help to a degree with our powerplay struggles, but I don't really see us having much better of a PP this year unless Kyrou has a fantastic season and doesn't get as snakebitten as he seemed to be last season.

To go off of your post though. Our bottom 6 significantly improved. And the depth beyond that probably still eclipses what our bottom 6 was last year. Even if the scoring doesn't jump alot from that group, you can't overlook at home much bigger and faster our bottom 6 has gotten. and ultimately how much harder to play against they on paper should be.


EDIT: I also forgot to list the improvements that Nashville made on the powerplay. Both Stamkos and Marchessault are weapons. I'd expect their powerplay to get even better even if their bottom 6 may tail off a bit.

 

[Brian39]

What's the per game basis of this, though? Our top 6 was almost perfectly healthy whereas most teams aren't that lucky. It makes our comparison very clean, vs other teams quite messy for who was top 6 and when, etc. To be clear I think the middle 6 was the primary problem that persists today. I think our top line is great and can be competitive with almost any team in hockey, but I don't think we have the horses below them to keep up.

All 6 of Nashville's top 6 scorers played 70+ games and the top 4 scorers combined for 3 total missed games. The Kings top 6 scorers missed a combined 12 games. I think you're probably right on Vegas.

I don't disagree with you about the 2nd line also being a problem and being a problem that persists. But they at least scored at a decent clip. They got caved in a lot and allowed too many goals/chances. But Neighbours and Saad were the 2nd and 3rd leading even strength goal scorers on the team and the Neighbours/Saad/Schenn trio combined for 55 even strength goals (Buch/Thomas/Kyrou combined for 57). There needs to be defensive improvement and/or the lines need to be re-worked to spread out the defensive deficiency. But they at least provided scoring punch.

The bottom 6 provided little-to-no scoring punch AND got caved in just as badly (some worse) as the 2nd line.

 

[Brian39]

I agree,

But I also think part of our issue with our top 6 even though it seems to grade just fine 5v5 is none of them are real threats on the powerplay.


We scored 45 goals on the powerplay which ranked about 10th from last in the NHL.
Of those teams listed
Nashville: 58
LA: 56
Vegas: 51

While in general that's not a huge discrepancy, we're going to be going through a bit of a rework of our powerplay - for better or worse - with Krug out for an extended period of time. I would say in general you'd expect the number hopefully to balance out around league average, especially with most of our PP players being younger players and getting a little more experience in the roles. However, I'm not sure how much we can count on Perunovich replacing Krug on the PP, and I think we're going to give Broberg a pretty good look on the PP. I don't think they'll both be in the lineup much with the addition of Suter as well, unless we plan on not giving Suter much ice time.

I do think it is worth noting that we went an abysmal 8.4% on the PP under Berube (31st) and 22.8% under Bannister and consultant Brad Richards (13th). We scored more PP goals than all 3 of those teams if you start the sample the day Bannister took over. I spent the first two months of the season pulling my hair out with how poorly the PP was being run and then it fixed itself almost the instant we changed coaches (we scored a PP goal in Bannister's 2nd game and then held steady at a 19% or better clip for the rest of the year).

I think Krug's departure could very well cause issues, but I'm not concerned about the forward's ability to produce on the PP. We have a 55 game sample of them performing just fine on the PP under the guy who will be coaching the team next year.

I don't think we need to improve the PP from what it was under Bannister. Even some minor regression would be fine. We could regress harder without Krug, but the PP isn't an area I see as 'needing improvement.'

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I would not be surprised if we run no Dmen on the top PP and have Thomas be the QB on that group and then have Faulk QB the 2nd group

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

All 6 of Nashville's top 6 scorers played 70+ games and the top 4 scorers combined for 3 total missed games. The Kings top 6 scorers missed a combined 12 games. I think you're probably right on Vegas.

I don't disagree with you about the 2nd line also being a problem and being a problem that persists. But they at least scored at a decent clip. They got caved in a lot and allowed too many goals/chances. But Neighbours and Saad were the 2nd and 3rd leading even strength goal scorers on the team and the Neighbours/Saad/Schenn trio combined for 55 even strength goals (Buch/Thomas/Kyrou combined for 57). There needs to be defensive improvement and/or the lines need to be re-worked to spread out the defensive deficiency. But they at least provided scoring punch.

The bottom 6 provided little-to-no scoring punch AND got caved in just as badly (some worse) as the 2nd line.

The challenge is that we theoretically should have talent for 2 scoring lines, and we have boosted our winger depth significantly, but we stk.. don't have even an average 2c (or 3c, tbh). Presumably Dvo is longterm answer at 2c but it's not reasonable to expect him to be that yet. If one of the guys who has mostly been a winger (Buchy, DHo, Tex, etc..) can at least handle the 2c then our lines look far more dangerous. Schenn is ideally a winger as he slows, but I'd be okay with him this year at 3c if necessary, but I don't see him as a viable 2c anymore.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I would not be surprised if we run no Dmen on the top PP and have Thomas be the QB on that group and then have Faulk QB the 2nd group

Given our multiple year plan and the addition of Broberg, I wouldn't be shocked if that top PP unit consisted of Broberg/Perunovich if he's in the lineup to see if we can't have a guy grow into the vacancy that Krug will leave.

 

[Majorityof1]

I would not be surprised if we run no Dmen on the top PP and have Thomas be the QB on that group and then have Faulk QB the 2nd group

I would be shocked. Its a toss up whether this or Dizee saying Kyrou is a wonderful human who deserves the Selke would be more surprising.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

Feel like we’re guaranteed to be in that 8th-10th range in the West. Definitely not a lottery team

 

[Xerloris]

Nope. Suter, Broberg, Holloway are not needle movers for me and losing Krug might hurt the offensive side of the puck more than we've considered. I think we have real issues on both sides of the puck and we've collectively gaslit ourselves that the bottom 6 was the problem last season and that Broberg is an immediate difference maker on the back end.

I don't think it's any one thing that's gonna change the team but all of that added together.

 

[HighNote]

My vote hasn't changed.

I had us at a 50/50 chance in terms of making the playoffs, and with the moves this off-season I think we have improved a bit. So I'd put it at more of a 60/40 in favor of playoffs at this point.

Either way, I think we're gonna be right around the playoff line. I think our rock-bottom would be 10th or 11th worst in the league, but I really only see that happening if we have major injuries and we under-perform. At best, I could see us as the first wild card team.

Before I'd say we'd end up just barely making the playoffs to being eliminated with maybe a week or so left in the season. Now I'd say a more realistic range would be comfortably in a wild card spot to just barely missing by a point or two.

As far as playoffs go, depending on our opponent, I could see us upsetting someone in the 1st round in 6-7 games or getting clobbered in 4-5 games. We make it no further than round 2, though.

So in short, I'd say anywhere from like pick 12-20, with 16-20 being more likely than 12-15.

 

[BlueDream]

I have pretty much the same expectations as well - no top 10 pick; we’ll be in the range of 8th seed - 10th seed.

My main concern is that I would not be surprised at all if things look really sloppy to start the season. We have several new faces and an inexperienced NHL head coach. I could see it taking a couple months for things to gel and guys to start finding chemistry together, and that may cost us a playoff spot.

By the end of the season though, I think we will see a lot of positive signs. Brian already did a good job outlining a lot of it, but this team definitely should take a major step defensively, IMO. Not only are Broberg and Suter better defensively than Krug and Perunovich (and way bigger too), but the forwards we added should REALLY help in our own end. Texier, Joseph, Faksa and Holloway are a big step up defensively from the guys they will be replacing from last year. If young guys like Neighbours can also improve in this regard, we will be in a good spot.

Things may be choppy at first, but I’ve expecting to see a much more cohesive unit by the 2nd half of the season, and it should set us up for a year in 2025-2026 where we will really need to get back into the playoffs.

 

[Mike Liut]

What are the chances this team is much better that we realize? The 4 new guys come in and play a tough 2-way Blues style of game, Thomas, Kyrou and Neighbors all take another step, Binny and Parayko remain beasts and this team goes deep in the playoffs.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

What are the chances this team is much better that we realize? The 4 new guys come in and play a tough 2-way Blues style of game, Thomas, Kyrou and Neighbors all take another step, Binny and Parayko remain beasts and this team goes deep in the playoffs.

If they are significantly better, its probably down to the new head coach as much as any roster changes. A full year of Bannister last year and they would have probably had enough points to make the post-season.

 

[Blanick]

Honestly I hope we are in the playoffs, I don't think we will go very far but you never know. The reason I say this is because every summer I take some time to look at players eligible for the next years draft to get an early idea on who to follow throughout the year. Looking at next years draft, outside of maybe the top 5 I really think it will be a weak draft year. Now a lot can change over the course of the season but my first glance hasn't exactly got me excited. If we find ourselves in the 8-16 range next summer I would hope DA might consider moving the pick for an already drafted prospect. Kind of like when Ottawa traded us the 16th pick that became Tarasenko for I believe it was Runblad.

 

[HighNote]

Honestly I hope we are in the playoffs, I don't think we will go very far but you never know. The reason I say this is because every summer I take some time to look at players eligible for the next years draft to get an early idea on who to follow throughout the year. Looking at next years draft, outside of maybe the top 5 I really think it will be a weak draft year. Now a lot can change over the course of the season but my first glance hasn't exactly got me excited. If we find ourselves in the 8-16 range next summer I would hope DA might consider moving the pick for an already drafted prospect. Kind of like when Ottawa traded us the 16th pick that became Tarasenko for I believe it was Runblad.

Why would you use that as the example you absolute madman