Will the Blues get a top 10 pick at next years draft?

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Ever the optimist, I have us at 7th in the central and getting the 8th overall pick

The only teams in this division that are currently better than us are Colorado, Dallas, Nashville, and Winnipeg.

Utah closed some of the gap with their defensive additions, but they aren’t better than us. Plus their goaltending isn’t good.

Minnesota have done nothing to improve their roster, and their goaltending also isn’t that great.

Chicago had a nice free agency, but they aren’t better than us yet. Like the previous two, their goaltending isn’t good either.

We should still firmly be in the WC mix, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we get the WC2 spot.

We improved our bottom 6, and should have much better two-way play and penalty kill. We’re no longer a slow skating team, and I believe those factors listed above should help mitigate the risk of regression from our goaltending due to better 5v5 play.

I think Binner can repeat, or come close, to his performance from last year, and Hofer should only keep improving. I don’t understand why people think we’ll be closer to 22-23 than 23-24. Our bottom 6 was HORRIBLE last year.

 

[Xerloris]

Ever the optimist, I have us at 7th in the central and getting the 8th overall pick

I can't say I would hate this but I have the feeling we make the playoffs. Either way so long as we're not an embarrassment in half the games like last year.

 

[Thallis]

The only teams in this division that are currently better than us are Colorado, Dallas, Nashville, and Winnipeg.

Utah closed some of the gap with their defensive additions, but they aren’t better than us. Plus their goaltending isn’t good.

Minnesota have done nothing to improve their roster, and their goaltending also isn’t that great.

Chicago had a nice free agency, but they aren’t better than us yet. Like the previous two, their goaltending isn’t good either.

I very much believe Utah got better than us when rebuilding their defense. Sergachev-Durzi is a legit top pair that's better than what we have, and let's not forget the distractions around ownership drama that was happening right as they begun their tailspin in January.

Minnesota was missing one of their top defensemen all season in Jared Spurgeon and had more regulation wins than we did. It doesn't take much for them to pass us.

We improved our bottom 6, and should have much better two-way play and penalty kill. We’re no longer a slow skating team, and I believe those factors listed above should help mitigate the risk of regression from our goaltending due to better 5v5 play.

I think Binner can repeat, or come close, to his performance from last year, and Hofer should only keep improving. I don’t understand why people think we’ll be closer to 22-23 than 23-24. Our bottom 6 was HORRIBLE last year.

Improving our bottom 6 defensively doesn't really help us much. Our bottom 6 was bad last season because we needed them to contribute offensively with our team construction and they couldn't. I don't see that changing from adding a few buy low candidates who have never been offensive studs. Don't forget that preventing goals wasn't the issue last season, it was scoring them. We didn't get better on that front and any slip front Binnington or major injury that we didn't get last season can see us tumble in the standings.

 

[joe galiba]

The worst of both worlds again.

Reminds me of Bill Murray in Groundhogs Day

which worked out in the end!

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I very much believe Utah got better than us when rebuilding their defense. Sergachev-Durzi is a legit top pair that's better than what we have, and let's not forget the distractions around ownership drama that was happening right as they begun their tailspin in January.

Minnesota was missing one of their top defensemen all season in Jared Spurgeon and had more regulation wins than we did. It doesn't take much for them to pass us.



Improving our bottom 6 defensively doesn't really help us much. Our bottom 6 was bad last season because we needed them to contribute offensively with our team construction and they couldn't. I don't see that changing from adding a few buy low candidates who have never been offensive studs. Don't forget that preventing goals wasn't the issue last season, it was scoring them. We didn't get better on that front and any slip front Binnington or major injury that we didn't get last season can see us tumble in the standings.

Well, Durzi was already there, and I kinda have him in the RH Dunn category. I saw him a lot living in LA. He’s good, but from everything I’ve read he’s projected to be 2nd pair. I was talking about Marino in my post, who’s coming off a down year. Sergachev, while great, is also coming off a couple major injuries over the last year or so.

Tbh, I forgot about Spurgeon’s injury, but I am still not afraid of that team. I do like Faber though.

I also think you’re underplaying how important it was for us to acquire players that make us much better at 5v5 and PK. We’re absolutely a better team now than we were last year. I think it’s more likely we make the playoffs than finish 7th.

 

[Thallis]

Well, Durzi was already there, and I kinda have him in the RH Dunn category. I saw him a lot living in LA. He’s good, but from everything I’ve read he’s projected to be 2nd pair. I was talking about Marino in my post, who’s coming off a down year. Sergachev, while great, is also coming off a couple major injuries over the last year or so.

Tbh, I forgot about Spurgeon’s injury, but I am still not afraid of that team. I do like Faber though.

I also think you’re underplaying how important it was for us to acquire players that make us much better at 5v5 and PK. We’re absolutely a better team now than we were last year. I think it’s more likely we make the playoffs than finish 7th.

Joseph, Texier, and Faksa are the not the difference between a positive 5v5 team and the deeply underwater one we had last year. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking it is.

 

[ezcreepin]

Well, Durzi was already there, and I kinda have him in the RH Dunn category. I saw him a lot living in LA. He’s good, but from everything I’ve read he’s projected to be 2nd pair. I was talking about Marino in my post, who’s coming off a down year. Sergachev, while great, is also coming off a couple major injuries over the last year or so.

Tbh, I forgot about Spurgeon’s injury, but I am still not afraid of that team. I do like Faber though.

I also think you’re underplaying how important it was for us to acquire players that make us much better at 5v5 and PK. We’re absolutely a better team now than we were last year. I think it’s more likely we make the playoffs than finish 7th.

I have to agree with this. subtracting Hayes, Vrana (for few parts), Blais, and Alexandrov and replacing them with Joseph, Faksa, Texier, and Kapanen (I know he was here) is infinitely better. Plus, I think there's clearly more offensive potenital in the new bottom 6 compared to last years. Vrana, although talented, is a liability, especially when he isn't producing. Hayes was an ok producer, but he was very streaky much like Schenn and his defense is passable. Blais isn't doing much when he's not physical. Alexandrov has lots of potential to be a 3rd line center, but he is too passive and weak to be a grinder. Joseph and Texier are 30 point players with good defense, Toropchenko and Kapanen are 20ish point players with good defense, Faksa is a 20 point player with great defense. Ignoring the possibility of Dean and Dvorsky making the team out of camp, you'll have Saad, Schenn, or Bolduc sliding down to that 3rd line and any one of them will provide nice offensive potential while being either a good energy guy or playing solid defense.

This team is not perfect at all and there are places in the top and bottom 6 where we can definitely improve, but they were pretty mediocre the entire year in almost every category except overall goals against. We were 24th in gf, 14th in ga, 24th in pp%, 18th in pk%, 27th in 5v5 gf, and 18th in 5v5 ga. We were excellent at winning games when leading after the first period, equally as good when leading after the 2nd, but we were awful at coming back in games. We gave up nearly identical goals in each of the periods (80, 82, and 82), but obviously we did not place high in goals for per period. I'll be curious to see how the offensive and defensive structure changes with new coaches and people shifting responsibilities, but I think we are a lot closer to a playoff team than not given how mediocre we were stats wise but finished just shy of a playoff birth.

 

[ezcreepin]

Joseph, Texier, and Faksa are the not the difference between a positive 5v5 team and the deeply underwater one we had last year. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking it is.

Just purely stat watching, Faksa, Texier, and Joseph would be our 4th, 5th, and 6th best EV corsi players behind Buch, Thomas, and Kyrou. Faksa being the only one on a good team, they would definitely improve possession for this team, which is an identity I think they're trying to get back to.

 

[Frenzy31]

I think the team is under a better coach this year and you might see a jump in some areas - PP and PK. Not a knock on chief, but the players seemed to have tuned him out. Having said that, I don't know that we are a better team overall. Neighbors might improve or he could regress (sophomore slump). JK has been a slow starter each of the past two years and we will really need him to step up.

Can't really figure out the 2nd line. Schenn, is a low end middle sixer. Neighbors goes to the dirty areas, but who is the other winger. And I hate Schenn at center. The 2nd line has two players past their prime that will likely put up 40 - 45 points at best - which is what they did last year. But that isn't enough to help 5v5 scoring. And if someone like Bolduc jumps up, then I think Saad will drop back and also produce less as a consequence.

I think we got faster and improved our defensive play in the bottom 6. But we didn't improve the offense at all in the bottom six so not sure we will get more scoring 5v5 there either.

Can we improve the PP? We need too. There is no way it should finish 24th. PK, hope to improve but we will see. This is coaching and I hope to see improvement here. However 5v5. I don't see the secondary scoring we need to improve.

We got a year older on the 2nd pairing D - which matters because they will be out of their prime this year age wise. (I consider prime 27 - 32). While Kessel has shown he can be solid, the other young d Perun (who really isn't young) showed he can't stay healthy. Who do you bring up next: Loof?? Joseph?? What new things can you expect from Tucker. Buch will need a full year in the AHL I think. So no help here.

For us to finish were we did, we will need to see Kyrou produce in the first half of the season. We will need to see Bolduc score and put up 40 points. Neighbors can't take a step back. And we need to see what we have for 2nd line center, because Schenn isn't it. Which means Buch..

We will need strong goaltending like we had this year..... As the roster stands now, I don't feel their is enough offense, but improved help from the fowards at D, but no improvement on the D side unless Kessel takes another step forward.

I put us bottom 10. And I am usually more upbeat.

 

[Brian39]

Don't forget that preventing goals wasn't the issue last season, it was scoring them. We didn't get better on that front and any slip front Binnington or major injury that we didn't get last season can see us tumble in the standings.

The lone reason that preventing goals wasn't the issue is because we got top 5 goaltending. And even with the goalies being genuinely elite, we were still only 15th in goals against. There is plenty of room for improvement and getting better defensively as a team would absolutely help improve the team.

All of the following stats are at 5 on 5 on a 'per 60 basis':

Expected goals against: 28th

Scoring chances against: 28th

High danger chances against: 30th

Shots against: 29th

Shot attempts against: 26th

We absolutely need to score more. I think we added 10-15 goals to the bottom 6 this summer, which would absolutely help accomplish that goal. But we also absolutely need to defend better as a team. The goalies dragging us to mid-pack in goals against doesn't mean that we can't improve the team by getting better defensively.

 

[The Note]

Depends on the goaltending. I don’t think the roster has improved all that much, if the Blues get even average goaltending I think they could find themselves in The top 10

 

[Xerloris]

Just purely stat watching, Faksa, Texier, and Joseph would be our 4th, 5th, and 6th best EV corsi players behind Buch, Thomas, and Kyrou. Faksa being the only one on a good team, they would definitely improve possession for this team, which is an identity I think they're trying to get back to.

I think our bottom 6 got great improvements but many people are overlooking then because they weren't flashy trades or maybe it's because 2 of them were free? lol Upgrade is an upgrade. Our bottom 6 was really f***ing bad last year.

 

[ezcreepin]

I think our bottom 6 got great improvements but many people are overlooking then because they weren't flashy trades or maybe it's because 2 of them were free? lol Upgrade is an upgrade. Our bottom 6 was really f***ing bad last year.

I mean seriously, go look back at who was in the bottom 6:

Alexandrov (not good)
Blais (not good)
Walker (good energy but limited)
Sundqvist (not bad but hurt)
Toropchenko
McGing (ineffective)
Gaudette (ineffective)
Dean (young)
Mac (ineffective)
Vrana (liability)
Kapanen (ok)
Hayes (streaky, slow, adequate defender)
Bolduc (good)

Give Hayes credit, he was a great faceoff guy last year and put up ok points playing in a role that would see his points drop, but Faksa is a better center than him in the bottom 6. Texier is better than any of the players above and Joseph is by far offensively better than any of the players above (defense I'm not 100% on).

 

[Meatwagon]

If we finish bottom 10, moving that 2nd next year to get Hayes off the book will really sting.

I know we got a 3rd back, but if it’s a top 40 pick, that’s a helluva lot better than a top 70 pick.

No sense in crying over spilt milk, but it’s really questionable asset mgmt.

 

[STLegend]

Barring injuries, Blues are back in the playoffs next season with a 99pt wildcard spot. It'll shape up like this:

Stars
Jets
Predators
Avalanche
Blues
UHC
Wild
Hawks

Oilers
Canucks
Knights
Kings
Kraken
Flames
Ducks
Sharks

Oilers win president's trophy but Blues will upset them round 1 in 6 games, then face the Knights round 2 and defeat them in 7 games, they'll then be eliminated in WC finals by the Stars in 5 games.

Stars face Cats in the finals and win cup in 6 games.

I dare any of you to be more of an optimist than me

 

[LogosBlue]

Barring injuries, Blues are back in the playoffs next season with a 99pt wildcard spot. It'll shape up like this:

Stars
Jets
Predators
Avalanche
Blues
UHC
Wild
Hawks

Oilers
Canucks
Knights
Kings
Kraken
Flames
Ducks
Sharks

Oilers win president's trophy but Blues will upset them round 1 in 6 games, then face the Knights round 2 and defeat them in 7 games, they'll then be eliminated in WC finals by the Stars in 5 games.

Stars face Cats in the finals and win cup in 6 games.

I dare any of you to be more of an optimist than me

I'll take some of what he's having

 

[Ranksu]

Depends on the goaltending. I don’t think the roster has improved all that much, if the Blues get even average goaltending I think they could find themselves in The top 10

This.

If goaltending will be shakey next season and injuries pile up. This team goes south quickly. We were lucky last season that goaltending was pretty good and didn't have toi much of major injuries.

 

[BlueSeal]

This.

If goaltending will be shakey next season and injuries pile up. This team goes south quickly. We were lucky last season that goaltending was pretty good and didn't have toi much of major injuries.

It would take both netminders to get injured or totally fall off a cliff and the third stringer they call up afterwards to totally suck and I don't see that happening. One thing we got that's totally legit is quality netminding up here and in the pipeline.

 

[kimzey59]

Anyone want to change their vote?

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Anyone want to change their vote?

Ask me in December. I want to see if the new guys can gel first

 

[LogosBlue]

Anyone want to change their vote?

Just did. I'm all in. Let's go!!!

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I'm still on 'Just miss playoffs.' There's certainly a lot of areas where they can and should improve, but I'm tempering my enthusiasm with so many new faces in the lineup.

I will not be surprised if they make the playoffs.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think I nailed my vote. I said too early to tell and a lot can still happen. And ALOT happened.

I still think it's too early cause we need to see how our youth steps up. I think a top 10 pick is unlikely (although we have 3-4 guys that if injured could change that).

If pressed I'd say make playoffs because I'm trying to be optimistic. Optimism makes me break out in hives, but I'm trying it out.
We do need young guys to step up and own some roles.

 

[SirPaste]

I'm still on 'Just miss playoffs.' There's certainly a lot of areas where they can and should improve, but I'm tempering my enthusiasm with so many new faces in the lineup.

I will not be surprised if they make the playoffs.

This is where I stand too, if I was a betting man I would say they will just fall short similar to last season but it would not surprise me at all if they do make it in. As the other poster above mentioned a significant injury or 2 to a key player could easily derail things and we still need to see improvement from the younger players.

 

[Brian39]

I still haven't voted, but I'm torn between 'make the playoffs' and 'just miss the playoffs.' I would bet on us making the playoffs before I bet on us to pick top 10.

I think the bottom 6 forward group got noticeably better offensively and defensively. I also see a group capable of playing faster and more physical than last year's group. And I see enough organizational depth (and bottom 6ers with potential upside) to withstand a couple injuries. We were fortunate to avoid injuries last year, but I think this year's group is more capable of sliding up the lineup than last year's was.

This is massively important because the top line wasn't the problem last year. Thomas, Kyrou, and Buch were +18, +8, and +6 respectively at 5 on 5 last season. Torpo, Sunny, Kap, MacMac, Vrana, Alexandrov, Blais, and Dean all had a GF% of 43% or worse last season with 5 of the 8 being in the 30s. The 2nd line also struggled, falling in the 45% to 47% range. I'm not sure if that will improve, but the drastic reconstruction of the bottom 6 should lead to a big change in how badly we got caved in when our top 3 forwards weren't on the ice.

I think we have an actual NHL caliber D group this year. P.O Joseph is an actual NHL D man. Suter is an actual NHL D man. I think Broberg is an actual NHL D man. It is going to be very interesting to see how we construct the blueline, but I see more potential combos to adequacy than we had last year.

I still like our goalie tandem a lot. I don't expect Binner to be as good as he was last year. That is much more a compliment of his play last year than a shot at what I think he can do this year. He can be the league's 5th best goalie this year and it would be a downgrade from what he was last year. But I think Hofer is capable of providing the same level of play as last year over an additional 5-10 starts. I expect another good year in net (even if it isn't the top 5 tandem performance we got last year).

All in all, I see a group that should be much better defensively than it was last year. I don't expect to be a top 10 defensive team in the league, but I don't expect us to be bottom 5 like last year. Simply moving up to the 20th-25th range in a lot of defensive metrics would go a long way to easing the burden on the goalies.

A couple things need to go right. We need 1-2 of the new guys to improve their game with a change of scenery. But if that happens, I see a team that should be on the right side of the playoff bubble. If those things don't go right, then I see a team that should be on the wrong side of the bubble. But I do think the bubble is where we should lane barring a ton of injuries.