Will Mitch Marner become star?

[Mess]

Agree with Mess, Leafs will be moving on from JVR/Bozak and likely Komarov and Polak. Mostly for cap future cap reasons, and the Leafs do have young, cheap replacements.
I imagine the Leafs do not want to have any performance bonus carryover into 2019/20 when their payroll will rise considerably. I figure they have 8m in cap space for next year, which might be the Leafs one year of a UFA or two..

To answer Mess's question. Maybe Marleau has to go centre next year, and Johnson, Leivo, Kapanen get wing positions. Will be money for a short term UFA (if any are available) as third line centre though.

A centre position requires a lot more skating and backchecking and I don't believe 39 year old Marleau was brought in to play that heavy/taxing role, even though he has been good as a C as a fill-in.

To answer your question the dream outcome for Leaf Nation might be John Tavares even if its +$10 mil and then Marner the playmaker beside the goal scoring C playing a 1A or 1B line with Matthews and Nylander the other top 6 line. Kadri at only $4.5 mil would become the Leafs checking/shutdown 3rd line with the likes of Brown and Kapanen as his wingers.

Dream option: (which allows both Nylander and Marner to play top 6 roles on RW)
1A .. Hyman -- Matthews -- Nylander
1B .. Marleau -- Tavares --- Marner
----------------------------------------------
3rd .. Kapanen -- Kadri -- Brown

Maybe the Leafs plan is to play Nylander and Marner together with Marleau next year after Willy moves to the middle, but that then leaves Leafs best player Matthews with neither Nylander or Marner on his right side and that seems to counterproductive unless that UFA $$ comes in the way of a RWer for Matthews.

 

[93LEAFS]

As I mentioned earlier in the thread its either Marner or Nylander who become a 3rd line and secondary scoring options as the player that lines up beside Matthews will be considered the teams top line RWer and the other will play on the Leafs 3rd line.

ATOI/g under Babcock will always see Matthews and Kadri lines as the ones with the most ice time and used in specialty teams situations. You can label lines anyway we like but ice time dictates usage .. Matthews gets 18-19 minutes a game. Kadri line gets 16-17 minutes and the next/3rd line gets 15-16 minutes a game..

We might see Marner beside his pal Auston, but that likely means a 3rd line of Leivo -- Nylander -- Kapanen type 3rd line and Babs will use them strategically just like he uses he Bozak line now, sheltering them against the oppositions best QofC when possible and trying to get them talent mismatches against easier competition when he dictates the matchups.

The difference between Marner and Kadri at ES this year is about a shift and a half. That isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things, and is partially a product of us leading more than trailing which will get Kadri's shut-down line more ice-time in the third. I think overly fixating on a minute of ice-time to label someone a 3rd liner is pointless. Babcock runs a pretty clear top 9 with lines having defined roles. The line that Marner or Nylander ends up on, will still be our 2nd most relied upon line when we need a goal.

 

[Lightsol]

Lupul who is a skilled player certainly seemed to play well with Kadri. McArthur is also another one.
Marner-Kadri has the chance to be very good. Kadri does well with hard working wingers and Marner has a high work ethic. Marner would also be served to get better defensively, so it might help him to be on Kadri's line. Marner would be good with an actual 2 way centre in Kadri.

Kadri rather clearly sees himself as the driver of his own line, and hasn't traditionally worked well with passing-first linemates as a result, as Kadri clearly doesn't like to pass or use his wingers. It's why he's still playing with Komarov despite the latter not scoring many points; Komarov is the perfect winger for Kadri (as least before he stopped hitting) because he uses his body to open up space for Nazem. Fact is, if Kadri were willing to USE his linemates offensively, then a guy like Marner would help, but he doesn't.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Marner has essentially been a 3rd line RW and PP specialist up to this point in his NHL career.. To his credit he drives his 3rd lines offense as I'd hate to think what Bozak and JVR would be/do offensively without him, but those protected/sheltered minutes have really helped Marner putting in situations where he can excel and succeed.

It has been Babcock's way of sheltering Mitch and giving him easier QofC against oppositions 3/4th lines whenever possible as he develops. Other teams on the road at times with last change do toss their best out there because them because they know that line is weak defensively and they try to exploit that weakness which is the reason for the high negative +/- figures of the Bozak line trio. Much like Babcock does because of team depth believes his 3rd line can exploit other teams 3/4th lines when he dictates matchups.

In time unless Marner plays beside Matthews on RW (who will always be considered Leafs #1line) or beside Kadri (often used as a shutdown option and #2 line) he will remain a 3rd line option for the Leafs. He still has enough talent to generate offense and produce points as he is being used strategically, but it will always be viewed as secondary offense playing in the bottom 6 while the primary offense will come from the top 2 lines.

Should JVR/Bozak leave as UFAs it will be interesting to see who Marner's new linemates become, or if the plan is to eventually play him beside Auston permanently when the coach feels he is physically strong enough to go against top pairing Dmen and top scoring/checking lines.

No mess....

Babcock is not sheltering Marner as a primary function! He spreads it out so teams can't match us easily and we can win games by doung it.

Babcocks priority is matching up properly so he can have the players win games.

There is no third line essentially. Its two first lines and a second really. I will now show the stats.

Matthews line numbers: with willy/hyman.
72 points combined
27 goals
+34 (outstanding)
17:30 average ice time combined (most average)

Kadri with Leo and Marleau.
50 pts combined
29 goals (most combined).
+1
16:55 average ice time combined.

Marner with Jvr and Bozak.
69 points combined.
27 goals
-9
15:00 average icetime combined.

Marners line has produced as a second line with the least average ice time. As a line their points 60 average is the best on the team.

Thats smart coaching and line assemblies by Babcock. I'm not sure about what line plays the most with our top pair defensemen and all them variables. To much work ha.

My main point is though that the stats show we have two top scoring lines and a shut down line that still kicks butt by scoring the most goals to this point in the season.

Mtthews line72 pts/27goals/17:30
Marner line 69 pts/27 goals/15:00
Kadri line. 50 pts /29 goals/16:55

Babcock will find a good set of forwards to play with Marner if we lose both Bozzy and Jvr.

That said, i think Jvr will be back if we can't sign Tavares. If we sign Tavares we have the best set of center/ right wingers innthe league.

Hyman/Matthews/Nylander
Kapanen/Tavares/Marner

Which line out of them two would be the top scoring line next year if it was to happen mess?

Tell ya what. Just give up on the sheltered icetime business plz plz.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Kadri rather clearly sees himself as the driver of his own line, and hasn't traditionally worked well with passing-first linemates as a result, as Kadri clearly doesn't like to pass or use his wingers. It's why he's still playing with Komarov despite the latter not scoring many points; Komarov is the perfect winger for Kadri (as least before he stopped hitting) because he uses his body to open up space for Nazem. Fact is, if Kadri were willing to USE his linemates offensively, then a guy like Marner would help, but he doesn't.

Kadri is playing a safe low risk defensive game with his line mates. He can pass really well. Kadri needs a winger that drives the net and dominates there to a larger degree than the wingers he has.

Kerby Rychel is that man. I will not get many that agree with that. I just think put the line of Rychel/Kadri and Brownie together and you are set for a shutty line.

Rychel has the enthusiasm at the crease and cycle and forcheck to compliment the line nicely.

 

[Mess]

No mess....

Babcock is not sheltering Marner as a primary function! He spreads it out so teams can't match us easily and we can win games by doung it.

Babcocks priority is matching up properly so he can have the players win games.

Which line out of them two would be the top scoring line next year if it was to happen mess?

Tell ya what. Just give up on the sheltered icetime business plz plz.

Babcock puts the Bozak line out against the opposition 3/4th lines to exploit the Leafs depth and talent of its 3rd line, and that is why they put up big points.

If the Leafs played the Pens for example .. Matthews would get Crosby or Malkin and Kadri gets the other one and the Bozak line gets to play against what is left. When they play the Oilers then Leafs top 2 lines face off against McDavid and Draisaitl and Bozak plays against the left overs. Ditto for other teams ..

This same thing plays out night after night which puts the Bozak 3rd line against the oppositions 3rd/4th lines and 2nd/3rd pairing.. QofC is a mismatch for the Leafs 3rd line but talent is a mismatch also to exploit weaker 3rd and 4th lines of the opposition.

When Kadri faces off against other teams stars as a shutdown his job is as much to contain the opposition than to outscore them. The whole strategy of Babcock is to give the Bozak line favourable matchups against easier opposition and hope they provide secondary scoring. He can't play them against good players/lines because their weak defensively and Leafs would get scored against and pinned in their own zone too much.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Babcock puts the Bozak line out against the opposition 3/4th lines to exploit the Leafs depth and talent of its 3rd line, and that is why they put up big points.

If the Leafs played the Pens for example .. Matthews would get Crosby or Malkin and Kadri gets the other one and the Bozak line gets to play against what is left. When they play the Oilers then Leafs top 2 lines face off against McDavid and Draisaitl and Bozak plays against the left overs. Ditto for other teams ..

This same thing plays out night after night which puts the Bozak 3rd line against the oppositions 3rd/4th lines and 2nd/3rd pairing.. QofC is a mismatch for the Leafs 3rd line but talent is a mismatch also to exploit weaker 3rd and 4th lines of the opposition.

When Kadri faces off against other teams stars as a shutdown his job is as much to contain the opposition than to outscore them. The whole strategy of Babcock is to give the Bozak line favourable matchups against easier opposition and hope they provide secondary scoring. He can't play them against good players/lines because their weak defensively and Leafs would get scored against and pinned in their own zone too much.

All that is reflected in their minutes played. Marners line gets much less icetime because jvr and bozak are terrible defensively. Marner is there to drive the line offensively and definitely is the best defensively of the three.

They produce just as much with much less icetime. The 2:30 less they play per game on Matthews line .
They don't get our top pairing out with them as much as Matthews or Kadri either.

They are the best points/60 Trio on the team. Likely one of the best points/60 Trios in the league.

 

[Menzinger]

Marner's line has been the best possession wise on the team. They spend the least amount of time in their own end according to proxies we use to measure effective possession.

Though for JVR/Bozak in particular their 5v5 icetime has been cut, they’re even more sheltered in usage than last season.

Good news is they’ve responded well to that, JVR especially

 

[studebaker17]

Babcock puts the Bozak line out against the opposition 3/4th lines to exploit the Leafs depth and talent of its 3rd line, and that is why they put up big points.

If the Leafs played the Pens for example .. Matthews would get Crosby or Malkin and Kadri gets the other one and the Bozak line gets to play against what is left. When they play the Oilers then Leafs top 2 lines face off against McDavid and Draisaitl and Bozak plays against the left overs. Ditto for other teams ..

This same thing plays out night after night which puts the Bozak 3rd line against the oppositions 3rd/4th lines and 2nd/3rd pairing.. QofC is a mismatch for the Leafs 3rd line but talent is a mismatch also to exploit weaker 3rd and 4th lines of the opposition.

When Kadri faces off against other teams stars as a shutdown his job is as much to contain the opposition than to outscore them. The whole strategy of Babcock is to give the Bozak line favourable matchups against easier opposition and hope they provide secondary scoring. He can't play them against good players/lines because their weak defensively and Leafs would get scored against and pinned in their own zone too much.

They've only played 1 game and kind of strange game . Malkin and Crosby both play 4 to 6 mins more than any leafs forward so line matching them straight up doesn't work for the leafs. Marner's line face the Malkin line about half their shifts, mathews faced mostly Malkin while Crosby/ Kadri matchup was pretty close to every shift. That game was strange more because Marner was only played pretty sparingly and Nylander played very little .

Against Edmonton Mathews was straight up against McDavid . Draisaitle line [ he hasn't played with McDavid for while] was facing Marner a lot. Kadri took on the RNH line mostly.

Of course a coach would try and get a mismatch in scoring line against 3rd or 4th lines. Babs trys it with both Marners line and mathews line when he gets a chance to get a lopsided advantage but opposing coaches are for certain sending out either a checking line or a top scoring line against the Bozak line.

 

[Bluelines]

A centre position requires a lot more skating and backchecking and I don't believe 39 year old Marleau was brought in to play that heavy/taxing role, even though he has been good as a C as a fill-in.

To answer your question the dream outcome for Leaf Nation might be John Tavares even if its +$10 mil and then Marner the playmaker beside the goal scoring C playing a 1A or 1B line with Matthews and Nylander the other top 6 line. Kadri at only $4.5 mil would become the Leafs checking/shutdown 3rd line with the likes of Brown and Kapanen as his wingers.

Dream option: (which allows both Nylander and Marner to play top 6 roles on RW)
1A .. Hyman -- Matthews -- Nylander
1B .. Marleau -- Tavares --- Marner
----------------------------------------------
3rd .. Kapanen -- Kadri -- Brown

Maybe the Leafs plan is to play Nylander and Marner together with Marleau next year after Willy moves to the middle, but that then leaves Leafs best player Matthews with neither Nylander or Marner on his right side and that seems to counterproductive unless that UFA $$ comes in the way of a RWer for Matthews.

Anyone know if JT has ever played for Babcock before? Babs tends to favor players he has coached in the past.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Anyone know if JT has ever played for Babcock before? Babs tends to favor players he has coached in the past.

yep, Team Canada

 

[studebaker17]

No mess....

Babcock is not sheltering Marner as a primary function! He spreads it out so teams can't match us easily and we can win games by doung it.

Babcocks priority is matching up properly so he can have the players win games.

There is no third line essentially. Its two first lines and a second really. I will now show the stats.

Matthews line numbers: with willy/hyman.
72 points combined
27 goals
+34 (outstanding)
17:30 average ice time combined (most average)

Kadri with Leo and Marleau.
50 pts combined
29 goals (most combined).
+1
16:55 average ice time combined.

Marner with Jvr and Bozak.
69 points combined.
27 goals
-9
15:00 average icetime combined.

Marners line has produced as a second line with the least average ice time. As a line their points 60 average is the best on the team.

Thats smart coaching and line assemblies by Babcock. I'm not sure about what line plays the most with our top pair defensemen and all them variables. To much work ha.

My main point is though that the stats show we have two top scoring lines and a shut down line that still kicks butt by scoring the most goals to this point in the season.

Mtthews line72 pts/27goals/17:30
Marner line 69 pts/27 goals/15:00
Kadri line. 50 pts /29 goals/16:55

Babcock will find a good set of forwards to play with Marner if we lose both Bozzy and Jvr.

That said, i think Jvr will be back if we can't sign Tavares. If we sign Tavares we have the best set of center/ right wingers innthe league.

Hyman/Matthews/Nylander
Kapanen/Tavares/Marner

Which line out of them two would be the top scoring line next year if it was to happen mess?

Tell ya what. Just give up on the sheltered icetime business plz plz.

The Kadri, Komorov , Marleau line has been really good and gets by far the hardest usage . Babs really only line matches that line as a strict rule against who he feels needs to be contained and usually pairs with them the Reilly/ Hainsey pairing so a lot of their offence is a result of also having the best defense pairing on with them for majority of their ice time.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

The Kadri, Komorov , Marleau line has been really good and gets by far the hardest usage . Babs really only line matches that line as a strict rule against who he feels needs to be contained and usually pairs with them the Reilly/ Hainsey pairing so a lot of their offence is a result of also having the best defense pairing on with them for majority of their ice time.

Marner has the 18th most takeaways in the league and many ahead of him are defensemen obviously. He does all that with the ice time ranking him 370th in the league.

He's not sheltered, he's there to be the top defensive player on that line and the friver of offense.

Thats great work by babs developing him like that and Mitch for owning it.

He's a bandit at stealing that puck.

 

[nonikhanna]

Marner has the 18th most takeaways in the league and many ahead of him are defensemen obviously. He does all that with the ice time ranking him 370th in the league.

He's not sheltered, he's there to be the top defensive player on that line and the friver of offense.

Thats great work by babs developing him like that and Mitch for owning it.

He's a bandit at stealing that puck.

Being Sheltered means other lines on your team are matching up against stronger players so you can face off against weaker lines. Marner's line is being sheltered but not Marner specifically, as he is the designated puck hound.
If someone could post QoC stats comparing the 3 lines, I'm sure we could put the issue to rest.

 

[Mess]

Marner has the 18th most takeaways in the league and many ahead of him are defensemen obviously. He does all that with the ice time ranking him 370th in the league.

He's not sheltered, he's there to be the top defensive player on that line and the friver of offense.

Thats great work by babs developing him like that and Mitch for owning it.

He's a bandit at stealing that puck.

You don't believe 370th in the league in icetime is not being sheltered? That is almost half the league that gets more ice time of the 800 skaters.

Marner 13:15 ES TOI/g, Bozak 12:45 & JVR 12:02 even strength which places them 7th, 9th and 10th among Leaf forwards which makes them 3rd liners and used strategically by Babcock, keeping them away from top offensive talent on the opposition because the line is weak defensively and to exploit their offensive abilities against easier QofC than the other two lines that are used more at even strength against better competition nightly.

 

[IPS]

You don't believe 370th in the league in icetime is not being sheltered? That is almost half the league that gets more ice time of the 800 skaters.

Marner 13:15 ES TOI/g, Bozak 12:45 & JVR 12:02 even strength which places them 7th, 9th and 10th among Leaf forwards which makes them 3rd liners and used strategically by Babcock, keeping them away from top offensive talent on the opposition because the line is weak defensively and to exploit their offensive abilities against easier QofC than the other two lines that are used more at even strength against better competition nightly.

Personally I don't think his production relies on him being sheltered.

 

[Mess]

Anyone know if JT has ever played for Babcock before? Babs tends to favor players he has coached in the past.

Marleau is in part a Leaf because of his familiarity with Babcock on team Canada. JT would follow that same pattern and also be a local Ontario born kid that grew up a Leaf fan.

 

[Mr Hockey]

From hockey reference.com

		Zone	Zone
~	Player	oZS%	dZS%
2	James van Riemsdyk	61.7	38.3
4	Mitch Marner	57.9	42.1
6	Tyler Bozak	57.3	42.7
7	Connor Brown	49.5	50.5
8	Auston Matthews	48.4	51.6
11	Patrick Marleau	46.2	53.8
12	Zach Hyman	45.5	54.5
14	William Nylander	44.8	55.2
15	Matt Martin	44.4	55.6
18	Nazem Kadri	40.2	59.8
19	Kasperi Kapanen	40.0	60.0
20	Dominic Moore	39.6	60.4
21	Leo Komarov	36.6	63.4

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[stickty111]

Kadri rather clearly sees himself as the driver of his own line, and hasn't traditionally worked well with passing-first linemates as a result, as Kadri clearly doesn't like to pass or use his wingers. It's why he's still playing with Komarov despite the latter not scoring many points; Komarov is the perfect winger for Kadri (as least before he stopped hitting) because he uses his body to open up space for Nazem. Fact is, if Kadri were willing to USE his linemates offensively, then a guy like Marner would help, but he doesn't.

Kadri uses his wingers well. This whole misconception that he doesnt use his wingers is getting out of hand and factually isnt correct. Kadri had good players with Lupul, Mcarthur, Frattin, Kulimen, all guys that he would use well. Kadri and Marner works for the reasons I pointed out last post
Kadri uses and passes to to wingers well but sometimes he has to change his style to accomodate for his wingers.
Kadri works well with his wingers and the biggest proof is how great he played with Lupul.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

You don't believe 370th in the league in icetime is not being sheltered? That is almost half the league that gets more ice time of the 800 skaters.

Marner 13:15 ES TOI/g, Bozak 12:45 & JVR 12:02 even strength which places them 7th, 9th and 10th among Leaf forwards which makes them 3rd liners and used strategically by Babcock, keeping them away from top offensive talent on the opposition because the line is weak defensively and to exploit their offensive abilities against easier QofC than the other two lines that are used more at even strength against better competition nightly.

You know what... if you had the honor to recognize the amount of takeaways he generates (18th) in league while playing 40% less than other takeaway leaders, i might think you are being unbiased and fair in your assessment.

It was in the same post and you chose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your agenda. Classy dude!

You probably think Babcock doesn't play Marner with Matthews gecause he isn't good enough do ya!!!

Your sheltered minutes argument is wrong. Mitch is there to make the line work. He's the catalyst not the sheltered one.

Marner shelters the deficiencies of his linemates, so yeah the line is sheltered.

Next time you call the line them when you are describing weak defensive play, do us a favour and leave Marner out of it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Kadri uses his wingers well. This whole misconception that he doesnt use his wingers is getting out of hand and factually isnt correct. Kadri had good players with Lupul, Mcarthur, Frattin, Kulimen, all guys that he would use well. Kadri and Marner works for the reasons I pointed out last post
Kadri uses and passes to to wingers well but sometimes he has to change his style to accomodate for his wingers.
Kadri works well with his wingers and the biggest proof is how great he played with Lupul.

Yeah I'm not sure how this myth has gained so much traction.

 

[Menzinger]

All that is reflected in their minutes played. Marners line gets much less icetime because jvr and bozak are terrible defensively. Marner is there to drive the line offensively and definitely is the best defensively of the three.

They produce just as much with much less icetime. The 2:30 less they play per game on Matthews line .
They don't get our top pairing out with them as much as Matthews or Kadri either.

They are the best points/60 Trio on the team. Likely one of the best points/60 Trios in the league.

I’d attribute the lines usage so far this season as 1) Babcock not trusting Bozak/JVR 5v5 + figuring out that “less is more” with selective usage 2) with Marner his icetime (much like Nylander) is because Babcock has tightened his leash with the younger guys and is cutting icetime in games where they have struggles.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I’d attribute the lines usage so far this season as 1) Babcock not trusting Bozak/JVR 5v5 + figuring out that “less is more” with selective usage 2) with Marner his icetime (much like Nylander) is because Babcock has tightened his leash with the younger guys and is cutting icetime in games where they have struggles.

Perfect! Thats about the size of it too!

 

[ULF_55]

Mitch Marner thread.

 

[IPS]

You know what... if you had the honor to recognize the amount of takeaways he generates (18th) in league while playing 40% less than other takeaway leaders, i might think you are being unbiased and fair in your assessment.

It was in the same post and you chose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your agenda. Classy dude!

You probably think Babcock doesn't play Marner with Matthews gecause he isn't good enough do ya!!!

Your sheltered minutes argument is wrong. Mitch is there to make the line work. He's the catalyst not the sheltered one.

Marner shelters the deficiencies of his linemates, so yeah the line is sheltered.

Next time you call the line them when you are describing weak defensive play, do us a favour and leave Marner out of it.

For the first part of this year I'll admit that Marner has been bad defensively but lately he's definitely shored up and looks good.

JVR/Bozak bring the same defensive game they've brought for all their careers. And it ain't good.

Pretty obvious why this line stays together, JVR and Bozak both put up career high offensive numbers last year, a lot of it because of Marner's terrific puck distribution abilities.

I find Mess' position on Marner's ice-time to be rather dishonest. I think he'd look just fine on a non-sheltered line with better linemates and more ice-time.