Will Mitch Marner become star?

[stickty111]

But playing Marner with Kadri would neuter Marner's offense quite a bit. There's a reason wingers playing with Kadri are either offensiveless (Komarov) or have people asking why they don't seem to be playing as good offensively (Marleau)...

Lupul who is a skilled player certainly seemed to play well with Kadri. McArthur is also another one.
Marner-Kadri has the chance to be very good. Kadri does well with hard working wingers and Marner has a high work ethic. Marner would also be served to get better defensively, so it might help him to be on Kadri's line. Marner would be good with an actual 2 way centre in Kadri.

 

[93LEAFS]

Marner has done plenty of coasting in his own zone this season, he just disguises it better. Flybys with no real intent to engage, bailing on board battles, it's a big reason that the Bozak line has been spending so much time in their own zone. I'd be glad if this is all about the lingering effects of mono and that Marner's last 3 games are a better representation of how the rest of his season will go. But that doesn't erase a forgettable 25+ game stretch.

Marner's line has been the best possession wise on the team. They spend the least amount of time in their own end according to proxies we use to measure effective possession.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Marner's line has been the best possession wise on the team. They spend the least amount of time in their own end according to proxies we use to measure effective possession.

Are you comfortable with that answer, you don't want to add/expand to it?

 

[93LEAFS]

Are you comfortable with that answer, you don't want to add/expand to it?

Marner is top 3 on our team in pretty much all possession relative stats (CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%). Due to that, you could draw a conclusion that they spend the least amount of time in their own end. Marner isn't elite defensively, but they aren't losing the possession battle when he's on the ice.

 

[hobarth]

Marner is top 3 on our team in pretty much all possession relative stats (CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%). Due to that, you could draw a conclusion that they spend the least amount of time in their own end. Marner isn't elite defensively, but they aren't losing the possession battle when he's on the ice.

Do you think some of those results are because Marner's line plays protected minutes against the opposition's 3rd/4th lines.

Stats at face value can often be deceptive. You'd think that since that line is so dominant it would be playing more against tougher opponents.

 

[93LEAFS]

Do you think some of those results are because Marner's line plays protected minutes against the opposition's 3rd/4th lines.

Stats at face value can often be deceptive. You'd think that since that line is so dominant it would be playing more against tougher opponents.

There is an advantage to playing against teams 3rd line but in general, that stuff balances out, because it's not like you always have last change, and teams try to get there better lines out against your weaker ones. QOC is still heavily debated on its actual effect. Mainly due to the fact the dynamics of the game mean you play against all-lines. Kadri sees tough usage at home, but on the road some teams purposely avoid him, so he ends up playing 3rd lines on occasion.

The other thing is, even if he was playing against the 3rd line, that doesn't mean the perception of him being trapped in his zone all the time is accurate. He's winning the possession battle when he's on the ice. So, that posters inference that he is constantly trapped in his own end is just incorrect if we believe the proxies for possession are accurate.

Also, all those people arguing that Marner or Nylander needs to be attached to Matthews, have you not watched the Chicago Blackhawks for their last cups. Kane rarely played with Toews outside of the PP. On top of that, I don't think the organization has written off the idea of using Willy as a sheltered offensive center.

 

[Mr Hockey]

You know, its the really pro-analytics people that say it all balances out in the end ... They try to hide the faults in hockey analytics. I would love to see Matthews matching up with garbage 3rd and 4th lines in the 2nd half of the season, but the other teams won't let that happen.

Our top 5 cf% guys is the Bozak line and the 2 d'men that play with them the most.

Added: I have had many, many discussions on twitter with Burtch, etc years ago about adv stats and his bs.

 

[93LEAFS]

You know, its the really pro-analytics people that say it all balances out in the end ... They try to hide the faults in hockey analytics. I would love to see Matthews matching up with garbage 3rd and 4th lines in the 2nd half of the season, but the other teams won't let that happen.

Our top 5 cf% guys is the Bozak line and the 2 d'men that play with them the most.

No, it is simply the dynamics of the game which leads to this happening. The amount of line-changes on the fly make perfect line-matching rare. Also, if the Marner line is weak, on the road opposing coaches will use the last change to get their first line out against them. That's why QOC has a quite limited effect.

 

[hobarth]

I love Marner, watching him play well makes me smile.

Right now I see him as a polished, streaky offensive player who gives his all the majority of the time. However he, as a player, reminds me of the Leafs, only able to be successful if he outscores his deficiencies.

Chicago has always tried to put Kane with defensively accomplished players so he can play significant minutes. Marner is instead played in protected minutes. Comparing Kane and Marner is premature as Kane is a scorer, first, while Marner's a distributor. I don't think many teams would pair Kane and Mariner on the same line, the 1st PP unit sure.

 

[Mr Hockey]

No, it is simply the dynamics of the game which leads to this happening. The amount of line-changes on the fly make perfect line-matching rare. Also, if the Marner line is weak, on the road opposing coaches will use the last chance to get their first line out against them. That's why QOC has a quite limited effect.

I am not saying the Marner line is weak, I am just talking about the possession numbers.

 

[93LEAFS]

I am not saying the Marner line is weak, I am just talking about the possession numbers.

Except if it is viewed as the weakest of our lines that get significant ES playing time, opposing teams will target it on the road when they have last change. Most coaches won't let Babcock dictate the match-ups. This is why QOC tends to balance out a bit. Do you think other coaches are going to let Babs dictate the match-ups when they have last change? Marner's line is somewhat sheltered, but QOC is a much more limited effect than people here believe.

 

[Mr Hockey]

On the road, the other teams are focused on shutting Matthews line down first. Babcock will then matchup up the Kadri line and free up the Marner line for potential good matchups. You know a guy like Babcock won't let himself get out coached on line changes.

 

[93LEAFS]

I love Marner, watching him play well makes me smile.

Right now I see him as a polished, streaky offensive player who gives his all the majority of the time. However he, as a player, reminds me of the Leafs, only able to be successful if he outscores his deficiencies.

Chicago has always tried to put Kane with defensively accomplished players so he can play significant minutes. Marner is instead played in protected minutes. Comparing Kane and Marner is premature as Kane is a scorer, first, while Marner's a distributor. I don't think many teams would pair Kane and Mariner on the same line, the 1st PP unit sure.

Chicago basically did play Kane with a Marner like player by playing him with Panarin the last 2 years and now Schmaltz. In general, Patrick Kane actually sees usage that is on the extreme end of the offensive side of zone-starts. Kane for his career has started in the offensive zone compared to the defensive zone 65% of the time. Now, Kane isn't sheltered, because it is impossible to shelter someone while playing them 20 minutes a game. The only player Kane has played with recently who is defensively accomplished is Anisimov.

I actually hope long-term we replicate that strategy with whichever line Marner or Nylander plays on when the other plays with Matthews. Matthews and Kadri can handle usage that slants to 50/50 or less in regards to zone-starts. Now, most changes happen on the fly in NHL games, but the zone-starts show how Quenneville tries to deploy Kane.

Edit: On top of that, how does Matthews missing a quarter of road games factor into this?

 

[93LEAFS]

On the road, the other teams are focused on shutting Matthews line down first. Babcock will then matchup up the Kadri line and free up the Marner line for potential good matchups. You know a guy like Babcock won't let himself get out coached on line changes.

Except he has to due to them getting last change. It is not like he can change the rule book. Babcock is a good coach, but that is something out of his control to an extent, unless he decides not to send those guys out for faceoffs.

 

[bunjay]

Marner is top 3 on our team in pretty much all possession relative stats (CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%). Due to that, you could draw a conclusion that they spend the least amount of time in their own end. Marner isn't elite defensively, but they aren't losing the possession battle when he's on the ice.

And that's why you have to watch the games, and look at all the stats in context. It would be expected that your line with by far the highest offensive zone start percentage has more attempts on goal. It would also be expected from being sheltered against top offensive threats and defensive matchups. You would also know that Corsi is not a perfect representation of actual possession. Perimeter players who make a large number of trivial shots look great according to shot attempts. High danger scoring chances often don't result in a shot attempt at all. This would explain why Marner has 2 even strength goals in 37 games, and Bozak has 6 in 36.

So why is the lowest scoring player on our first line on pace for 3x the number of even strength goals as the lowest scoring player on the Bozak line? Despite much more difficult matchups and roughly 10% higher o-zone start percentage? Because our best possession line is actually the Matthews line. The Bozak line is terrible at even strength and everybody can see it. Their goal differential compared to the matchups and zone starts they get is bad, and it's not despite Marner.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I love Marner, watching him play well makes me smile.

Right now I see him as a polished, streaky offensive player who gives his all the majority of the time. However he, as a player, reminds me of the Leafs, only able to be successful if he outscores his deficiencies.

Chicago has always tried to put Kane with defensively accomplished players so he can play significant minutes. Marner is instead played in protected minutes. Comparing Kane and Marner is premature as Kane is a scorer, first, while Marner's a distributor. I don't think many teams would pair Kane and Mariner on the same line, the 1st PP unit sure.

Thats about true. I would not compare Marner to kane either. Kane is much better right now. I can see people projecting Marner that he could be a kane style player.

Marner is two minimum to three more years developing his complete game in the league. He's good now but will get better. He might be as good as kane depending on a plethora of variables.

He will be a star if everything goes ok!

 

[93LEAFS]

And that's why you have to watch the games, and look at all the stats in context. It would be expected that your line with by far the highest offensive zone start percentage has more attempts on goal. It would also be expected from being sheltered against top offensive threats and defensive matchups. You would also know that Corsi is not a perfect representation of actual possession. Perimeter players who make a large number of trivial shots look great according to shot attempts. High danger scoring chances often don't result in a shot attempt at all. This would explain why Marner has 2 even strength goals in 37 games, and Bozak has 6 in 36.

So why is the lowest scoring player on our first line on pace for 3x the number of even strength goals as the lowest scoring player on the Bozak line? Despite much more difficult matchups and roughly 10% higher o-zone start percentage? Because our best possession line is actually the Matthews line. The Bozak line is terrible at even strength and everybody can see it. Their goal differential compared to the matchups and zone starts they get is bad, and it's not despite Marner.

Except they also grade out well by xGF% or even HDCF%. Marner also leads all forwards in HDCF% at 5v5. So, when a guy grades out well by all metrics that capture possession and chances generated, it would mean he is not spending that much time in his own end. You are overvaluing zone-starts, considering a majority of shifts take place on the fly. So this isn't a case of having a high amount of shots from the perimeter inflating their possession stats, which seems to be the conclusion you have reached to dismiss Corsi.

Marner's line has dictated play when he is on the ice. They aren't constantly trapped in their own end. They also don't see a massive split in their favor for zone-starts. Given how little zone-starts actually mean to possession numbers. They still dominate possession and chances generated when you adjust for score, venue, and zone.

I watch the games, the Bozak line isn't our best line but the main difference between Matthews line and Marner's line in regards to the goal differential between Marner and Hyman at 5v5 goals is driven by one line having an 11.5% oiSH%. Part of that is no one on the Marner line is as good a shooter as Matthews, and Nylander is better than everyone not named JVR. I'd also add, Nylander only has 3 5v5 goals to Marner's 2.

Also, a 55% GF% rate is fine, which is what the JVR-Bozak-Marner line is currently doing. I'd like to see them do better, but I do think Marner's struggles have been over-exaggerated. The great Stamkos-Kucherov line is only at a 60% GF ratio, while Scheifele/Wheeler/Connor is below them.

 

[DarkKnight]

Let's keep it real, Babcock is protecting Bozak and JVR, those two together have been a defensive liability since they arrived here. You could put Uncle Leo or Hyman, or Brown on that line instead of Mitch and Babcock would still "shelter" them. Marner is the least of our worries defensively, he wins pucks, gets turnovers, his stick is excellent at knocking down pucks, he's going to be VERY good defensively as he gets older, stronger, book it. I find this whole "sheltered" stuff annoying and sort of guilt by association.

 

[studebaker17]

Let's keep it real, Babcock is protecting Bozak and JVR, those two together have been a defensive liability since they arrived here. You could put Uncle Leo or Hyman, or Brown on that line instead of Mitch and Babcock would still "shelter" them. Marner is the least of our worries defensively, he wins pucks, gets turnovers, his stick is excellent at knocking down pucks, he's going to be VERY good defensively as he gets older, stronger, book it. I find this whole "sheltered" stuff annoying and sort of guilt by association.

With Mathews out the Bozak line was been the line other coaches were mostly trying to line match. Not sure where this sheltered idea comes from but not true. They virtually always play against second pair d and either the checking line or head to head against the top line.
just the last few games

NY rangers head to head against Zuccarello /nash/and Stall mostly

Columbus -split time against the Panarin line and Jones with the Kadri line , If not them then the 2nd pair d . Columbus tried for that match up and Leafs tried to get Kadri against them.

Caraolina tried to match Bozak line against second pair Hanifin and J Stall and leafs tried to match Kadri against J stall which was interesting because Nylander was against Teravainen almost exclusively.

 

[Mess]

Do you think some of those results are because Marner's line plays protected minutes against the opposition's 3rd/4th lines.

Stats at face value can often be deceptive. You'd think that since that line is so dominant it would be playing more against tougher opponents.

Marner has essentially been a 3rd line RW and PP specialist up to this point in his NHL career.. To his credit he drives his 3rd lines offense as I'd hate to think what Bozak and JVR would be/do offensively without him, but those protected/sheltered minutes have really helped Marner putting in situations where he can excel and succeed.

It has been Babcock's way of sheltering Mitch and giving him easier QofC against oppositions 3/4th lines whenever possible as he develops. Other teams on the road at times with last change do toss their best out there because them because they know that line is weak defensively and they try to exploit that weakness which is the reason for the high negative +/- figures of the Bozak line trio. Much like Babcock does because of team depth believes his 3rd line can exploit other teams 3/4th lines when he dictates matchups.

In time unless Marner plays beside Matthews on RW (who will always be considered Leafs #1line) or beside Kadri (often used as a shutdown option and #2 line) he will remain a 3rd line option for the Leafs. He still has enough talent to generate offense and produce points as he is being used strategically, but it will always be viewed as secondary offense playing in the bottom 6 while the primary offense will come from the top 2 lines.

Should JVR/Bozak leave as UFAs it will be interesting to see who Marner's new linemates become, or if the plan is to eventually play him beside Auston permanently when the coach feels he is physically strong enough to go against top pairing Dmen and top scoring/checking lines.

 

[93LEAFS]

Marner has essentially been a 3rd line RW and PP specialist up to this point in his NHL career.. To his credit he drives his 3rd lines offense as I'd hate to think what Bozak and JVR would be/do offensively without him, but those protected/sheltered minutes have really helped Marner putting in situations where he can excel and succeed.

It has been Babcock's way of sheltering Mitch and giving him easier QofC against oppositions 3/4th lines whenever possible as he develops. Other teams on the road at times with last change do toss their best out there because them because they know that line is weak defensively and they try to exploit that weakness which is the reason for the high negative +/- figures of the Bozak line trio. Much like Babcock does because of team depth believes his 3rd line can exploit other teams 3/4th lines when he dictates matchups.

In time unless Marner plays beside Matthews on RW (who will always be considered Leafs #1line) or beside Kadri (often used as a shutdown option and #2 line) he will remain a 3rd line option for the Leafs. He still has enough talent to generate offense and produce points as he is being used strategically, but it will always be viewed as secondary offense playing in the bottom 6 while the primary offense will come from the top 2 lines.

Should JVR/Bozak leave as UFAs it will be interesting to see who Marner's new linemates become, or if the plan is to eventually play him beside Auston permanently when the coach feels he is physically strong enough to go against top pairing Dmen and top scoring/checking lines.

I'd say the way Babcock coaches, a top 6/bottom 6 labelling is outdated. This isn't Burke's team. Babcock uses a top 9 and divides his lines. It is not close to what you see with teams that run a top 6/bottom 6 where there is a massive divide in 5v5 ice-time.

In the end, I would expect Marner to be put with Matthews, while Nylander is moved to center and asked to drive a line that is used similarly to how Patrick Kane's lines have been used in Chicago, with Kadri asked to be the shutdown line.

 

[Mess]

Let's keep it real, Babcock is protecting Bozak and JVR, those two together have been a defensive liability since they arrived here. You could put Uncle Leo or Hyman, or Brown on that line instead of Mitch and Babcock would still "shelter" them. Marner is the least of our worries defensively, he wins pucks, gets turnovers, his stick is excellent at knocking down pucks, he's going to be VERY good defensively as he gets older, stronger, book it. I find this whole "sheltered" stuff annoying and sort of guilt by association.

JVR and Bozak likely will depart as UFAs, mainly because Leafs will need their cap space to re-sign the 3 Amigos to their new large contracts.

I believe next year's top 6 will be...

Hyman -- Matthews -- Nylander
Marleau -- Kadri -- Brown (taking Leo's spot if not re-signed) because is a strong 2-way player.
XXXX ---- XXXX -- Marner

How do you see Marner being used by Babcock and who will be his new linemates next year and beyond?.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Agree with Mess, Leafs will be moving on from JVR/Bozak and likely Komarov and Polak. Mostly for cap future cap reasons, and the Leafs do have young, cheap replacements.
I imagine the Leafs do not want to have any performance bonus carryover into 2019/20 when their payroll will rise considerably. I figure they have 8m in cap space for next year, which might be the Leafs one year of a UFA or two..

To answer Mess's question. Maybe Marleau has to go centre next year, and Johnson, Leivo, Kapanen get wing positions. Will be money for a short term UFA (if any are available) as third line centre though.

 

[DarkKnight]

JVR and Bozak likely will depart as UFAs, mainly because Leafs will need their cap space to re-sign the 3 Amigos to their new large contracts.

I believe next year's top 6 will be...

Hyman -- Matthews -- Nylander
Marleau -- Kadri -- Brown (taking Leo's spot if not re-signed) because is a strong 2-way player.
XXXX ---- XXXX -- Marner

How do you see Marner being used by Babcock and who will be his new linemates next year and beyond?.

If we don't bring Bozak back,doesn't that increase the odds of Nylander moving or another center being brought in? Ultimately I see Marner on the Matthews line.

 

[Mess]

I'd say the way Babcock coaches, a top 6/bottom 6 labelling is outdated. This isn't Burke's team. Babcock uses a top 9 and divides his lines. It is not close to what you see with teams that run a top 6/bottom 6 where there is a massive divide in 5v5 ice-time.

In the end, I would expect Marner to be put with Matthews, while Nylander is moved to center and asked to drive a line that is used similarly to how Patrick Kane's lines have been used in Chicago, with Kadri asked to be the shutdown line.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread its either Marner or Nylander who become a 3rd line and secondary scoring options as the player that lines up beside Matthews will be considered the teams top line RWer and the other will play on the Leafs 3rd line.

ATOI/g under Babcock will always see Matthews and Kadri lines as the ones with the most ice time and used in specialty teams situations. You can label lines anyway we like but ice time dictates usage .. Matthews gets 18-19 minutes a game. Kadri line gets 16-17 minutes and the next/3rd line gets 15-16 minutes a game..

We might see Marner beside his pal Auston, but that likely means a 3rd line of Leivo -- Nylander -- Kapanen type 3rd line and Babs will use them strategically just like he uses he Bozak line now, sheltering them against the oppositions best QofC when possible and trying to get them talent mismatches against easier competition when he dictates the matchups.