Will McDavid break Kucherov's Post-Lockout Points Record in 2021-22?

[filinski77]

My point is that Kucherov had a similar pace as McDavid for a 56 game stretch in his season, but slowed down outside of it. It's easier to do it for 56 games than a full 82 games. If you want to isolate a 41 game stretch, Kucherov's best 41 consecutive games is actually 1 point higher than McDavid.

so - I get that McDavid's ppg has increased every year, but unique circumstances past season (Covid, north division) + shortened season make last year's increase a bit of an outlier, and not necessarily repeatable. And other than last season, he's actually never had a season where he paced for 130+ points - his best ppg was 1.52ppg, which translates to ~125 points.

I think he can do 130, but it'll probably be close to where he maxes out, and it'll be close. Passing it by "a lot" would be really fun to watch, but super unlikely.



It's never a bad thing to play with more talent of course - but it's always a bit of a trade off. McDavid gets a ton of ice time and gets relied on tremendously. On a much deeper team like Tampa, he'd be relied on a bit less, so there's a tradeoff there. Maybe he scores more on Tampa, but it's not a guarantee, and it's not certain how much more he'd score.

Agree with a lot of what you've been saying. McDavid is still going to be the best player in the league next year (barring any crazy surprises) - but there's nothing wrong with curbing expectations.

Yes McDavid has increased his point/gp every year, but at some point every player in NHL history simply stops doing that LOL. Many Oilers fans will disagree, but I can't help but think that it's not a coincidence that McDavids best point/gp increase year over year BY FAR came from a shortened season where he only played 6 teams:

P/GP	Inc from PY
1.07
1.22	14%
1.32	8%
1.49	13%
1.52	2%
1.88	24%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What I'm seeing is that the way this season was set up, is McDavid got to a play a significantly larger % of his games (over 60% more) against teams where he was putting up crazy good point/gp numbers.

This past year:

	GP	P
Total	56	105
Against teams with 2 p/gp	28	65
	50%	62%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2019-2020

	GP	P
	64	97
Total	20	54
Against teams with 2 p/gp	31%	56%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2018-2019

	GP	P
	78	116
Total	23	52
Against teams with 2 p/gp	29%	45%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In the end, it could be a coincidence, and he could have just taken a crazy ridiculous step, I just think that the circumstances are too odd to ignore. He could prove me wrong next year, and that's fine, but for now I don't think there's a reason to actually expect it.

 

[Mulletman]

It's very important for McDavid's legacy that he's able to beat Kucherov's 128 point mark. Hitting 130+ points would put McDavid in the Gretzky, Lemieux tier.

If Mcdavid has a healthy season he'll most likely do it. The good thing is that he's sitting at 574 career points right now. That means he's 126 points away from hitting 700, so he'll probably be super motivated towards the end of next season when he's closing in on 700 career points.

 

[These Are The Days]

It's very possible. And it's also possible Kucherov can break his own record. McDavid is such a treat and I never have any issue when people say he's the best in the world. The answer to that question changes nightly because it's a title you have to back up.

 

[daver]

If he does, he will have even more pressure on him to produce in the playoffs.

 

[North Cole]

McDavid also faced same handful of teams over and over, wont happen next year. Sure his inflated ice+pp-time is a strong point in his favor, one could even argue that he should beat Kucherovs mark to be considered on the same level given that he plays a lot more and scoring is up. It will be close but voting no till I see it(given that it's been quite awhile since somebody did hit 130).

Anyway we will see but honestly at this point it would be more important for his career if he could perform in the playoffs a year or five.

At this point it would be good to see him more in the playoffs. You have to learn how to play in the playoffs in order for the performance to come, which means he needs to make the playoffs more than once every four or five years. Took Kucherov multiple post seasons to get to the level he's at now, where the points seem almost free for him.

Agree with a lot of what you've been saying. McDavid is still going to be the best player in the league next year (barring any crazy surprises) - but there's nothing wrong with curbing expectations.

Yes McDavid has increased his point/gp every year, but at some point every player in NHL history simply stops doing that LOL. Many Oilers fans will disagree, but I can't help but think that it's not a coincidence that McDavids best point/gp increase year over year BY FAR came from a shortened season where he only played 6 teams:

P/GP	Inc from PY
1.07
1.22	14%
1.32	8%
1.49	13%
1.52	2%
1.88	24%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What I'm seeing is that the way this season was set up, is McDavid got to a play a significantly larger % of his games (over 60% more) against teams where he was putting up crazy good point/gp numbers.

This past year:

	GP	P
Total	56	105
Against teams with 2 p/gp	28	65
	50%	62%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2019-2020

	GP	P
	64	97
Total	20	54
Against teams with 2 p/gp	31%	56%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2018-2019

	GP	P
	78	116
Total	23	52
Against teams with 2 p/gp	29%	45%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In the end, it could be a coincidence, and he could have just taken a crazy ridiculous step, I just think that the circumstances are too odd to ignore. He could prove me wrong next year, and that's fine, but for now I don't think there's a reason to actually expect it.

He doesn't need to take a crazy ridiculous step though. 2 years ago PPG increased 13%, followed by increasing 2%. If this year was normal he only needed to increase 3% to break the 128 point barrier (1.575/1.52) which is not an unreasonable jump in %.

I don't think anyone disagrees that a player will eventually see PPG growth invert...that's just simple logic and math. He isn't going to increase his PPG for the next 10 years straight, but he doesn't need to hit 1.8+ in order to fulfil the OP question, and he doesn't need an astronomical growth in PPG from last year to do it either.

 

[Del Preston]

Oh yeah those two Oilers looser desperately trying to be in the same tier as Kucherov. They may very well catch up with his regular season record one day, but by that time Kucherov is likely having 3 cups and several playoff records. Good luck catching that 2nd tier players.

Why are some of you Tampa fans like this?

 

[WarriorofTime]

He would have more team success, I doubt his numbers increase though. Great players tend to get their stats regardless of team strength/linemates, Wayne, Mario, Jagr, Crosby etc..., that's what makes them great.

Ovechkin scoring 52 goals when his next closest teammate had 57 points and the 3rd guy had 44 points is the most unreal to me. And then a couple years later scoring 65 goals when his next closest teammate had 69 points and 3rd guy had 56 points. Unreal. Never seen anything like that.

 

[filinski77]

At this point it would be good to see him more in the playoffs. You have to learn how to play in the playoffs in order for the performance to come, which means he needs to make the playoffs more than once every four or five years. Took Kucherov multiple post seasons to get to the level he's at now, where the points seem almost free for him.



He doesn't need to take a crazy ridiculous step though. 2 years ago PPG increased 13%, followed by increasing 2%. If this year was normal he only needed to increase 3% to break the 128 point barrier (1.575/1.52) which is not an unreasonable jump in %.

I don't think anyone disagrees that a player will eventually see PPG growth invert...that's just simple logic and math. He isn't going to increase his PPG for the next 10 years straight, but he doesn't need to hit 1.8+ in order to fulfil the OP question, and he doesn't need an astronomical growth in PPG from last year to do it either.

Oh don't get me wrong, I think he definitely could potentially hit 130, but I'm more-so thinking the people who think he can "easily" do it, or that he can hit 150+.

 

[North Cole]

Oh don't get me wrong, I think he definitely could potentially hit 130, but I'm more-so thinking the people who think he can "easily" do it, or that he can hit 150+.

Oh well in that case I agree sorry. I think 150 is a pipedream but I would love to see him do it. I really think he has the opportunity to go down as the 5th all time. Needs some post season success, but I would like to see him win 4 or 5 Harts.

 

[cave troll]

After this big disappoitment in playoffs, I see McDavid absolutely destroying all numbers in next season.
150 pts for sure.

 

[These Are The Days]

Why are some of you Tampa fans like this?

A lot of us collectively decided to stop giving a shit just after the CBJ sweep and as time went by more and more of us followed suit. Normally there's about 4 Lightning fans who don't care no matter what but I'd be surprised if there was even that many left who aren't gonna just be assholes.


You try getting 6 months of COVID CUP CHAMPS and HF collective being butthurt that a guy with a groin injury didn't have hip surgery after the playoffs and hearing "cap circumvention" at every turn

 

[Gurglesons]

Doubt it.

 

[Del Preston]

A lot of us collectively decided to stop giving a shit just after the CBJ sweep and as time went by more and more of us followed suit. Normally there's about 4 Lightning fans who don't care no matter what but I'd be surprised if there was even that many left who aren't gonna just be assholes.


You try getting 6 months of COVID CUP CHAMPS and HF collective being butthurt that a guy with a groin injury didn't have hip surgery after the playoffs and hearing "cap circumvention" at every turn

Yeah, you guys have had it so bad the last two or three years. Must be tough to cheer for the Lightning.