Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[Rants Mulliniks]

Five years ago I made a career forecast model. I projected that Matthews would reach 670 goals by age 34. If he actually does that, it would make him one of the greatest goal-scorers of all-time.

The model forecasted that he'd be up to 434 goals by the end of this season. He's actually at 397 (plus whatever he scores during the final few games).

Of course, there was no way of predicting that the 2020 and 2021 seasons would be shortened. If we retroactively back that into the model, he would have been projected to be at 407 goals through the end of this year. This is very close to where he's going to end up - 397 plus whatever he gets during the Leafs' final eight games.

It's hard to say whether Matthews reaches 700 goals (or beyond). What Ovechkin is doing is extremely rare and it's unlikely (though not impossible) that Matthews will have similar longevity. Anything under 600 goals should probably be considered a disappointment; anything over 750 should probably be considered extraordinary.

Still has a shot at being the only player not named Gretzky or Bossy to hit 500 before 30. A better season this year would have helped.

 

[AvroArrow]

Probably not, Ovechkin has been scoring at an insane pace in his later years. Matthews already has injury trouble in his prime, I can only imagine what it'll be like when he's 35+

I think he probably could finish as the 3rd highest goal scorer of all time behind OV and 99, highly unlikely he breaks whatever record Ovechkin is bound to set.

 

[wetcoast]

I think he could get 800 as his absolute peak. But he will get 700 easily assuming he is healthy enough. That's the biggest question mark regarding Matthews. He has the talent but the longevity is what sets Ovechkin apart from everyone else.

Probably and to me the interesting thing is to see if Matthews breaks Gretzky's ESG record of 617 ESG, as he is already 5th all time with 291 ESG.

Ovi has 564 and AM could reach him in ESG but probably not total goals.

Crosby has 434 and will pass 10th place Yzerman early next year as he has 440.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[Do Make Say Think]

It is possible but unlikely

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I don't think he has the durability to do so. He seems like the kind of guy that will battle injuries most of career.

 

[nORRis8]

Is this a serious thread ?

I thought I was on the TSN or Sportsnet website for a second when I saw the question

Matthews is one of the best unremarkable players there is.
You'll hardly see him go and end and score. To me there's nothing flashy about his game. He's smart, he finds the shooting lanes and scores plenty goals with guys feeding him.
He needs Marner more than Marner needs him.

He's had a bum shoulder since junior, and if anything else that's whats bothering him to this day.
The guy avoids getting hit for good reason.
In time he'll be slowing down

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Probably not, Ovechkin has been scoring at an insane pace in his later years. Matthews already has injury trouble in his prime, I can only imagine what it'll be like when he's 35+

I think he probably could finish as the 3rd highest goal scorer of all time behind OV and 99, highly unlikely he breaks whatever record Ovechkin is bound to set.

Same for me, the 801 mark will be a realistic but difficult mark but Ovechkin's durability and consistency in his late 30's is unheard of.

 

[Bring Bak Damphousse]

It will be hard to replicate Ovies durability/consistency. He just keeps scoring at a remarkable pace, when guys his age have usually been declining for 3-5 years. Matthews may hit certain markers earlier but will probably have a quicker decline before he gets close.

 

[qcal1427]

Since Matthews entered the league he is 32 goals ahead of Ovechkin.

Age 19-27 seasons for Matthews.
Age 31-39 seasons for Ovechkin.

View attachment 1003136

It's a testament to Matthews that this is even a question worth discussing but as always it's stats like these that make it extremely unlikely

 

[filinski77]

If he gets 60Gs and another rocket next year he has a legit shot as hell be at ~460 after 10 nhl years

He would need another 475-480 (assuming OV ends with 935 to 940 after next year). He will need to play 12 years and avg 40Gs per 82 games to get that.

Will not be easy, as he will need to be healthy 90% of the time and likely take advantage of his prime and high scoring environment to pop a few 50G seasons in there to habe a better shot.

His chances ate <10% as of now, but he is the best bet to take the record out of anyone in the NHL or coming into the NHL in next 5 years as of now.

If he cant bounce back and is a 35G guy moving forward he ends with 700-750G and is a lot back of OV

I would say <2.5 to 5% chance.

What you're proposing looks something like this - I call it an "almost possible scenario":
Note that I have had to increase some numbers to get him to around 923 career goals - since surely Ovechkin will score some more goals next year.

But he'd need a 60 goal season next year, and then to average 40-45 goals every year after that. This is significantly unreasonable for a multitude of reasons:

1) Health - this would assume Matthews can somehow have better injury luck in the older ages of his career than in his younger ages. Unlikely although not unreasonable

2) Peak play - Matthews has scored 50 actual goals or more only twice in his prime aged years. Expecting 105 goals in his 28 and 29 year old seasons are also unlikely when you factor in time missed to injuries and the natural aging curve.

3) Aging - Let's say he does go 60 and 45 goals next 2 years (or 55 and 50), he'd then be 30 years old and need to average 40 to 45 goals for 10 years from age 30 to 39. That is just flat out almost not possible (<1%). Sure - we saw once in a lifetime back-half goalscoring from Ovechkin. But there is absolutely no reason to even think that Matthews (who has had injury issues) to beat the goalscoring curve that almost all elite goal scorers have seen.

Scoring 400+ goals in his 30's just is not going to happen.

IF he scores 150 goals in his 28/29/30 seasons (which he needs to do based on the above chart) - that would be the SECOND highest 3 year rolling goal total of his career. That's very unlikely. But even if he does do it, he'd need about 372 goals in his age 31 season onwards.

If you look at the players that had the most goals up to the end of their age 30 season, and then how many they scored after that. You'll find that 150-250 is a likely number.

Hitting 300 would be absolutely crazy and should not be expected (Esposito/Selanne), but that would still put him 50-70 goals shy. He would literally need to be the best "30's goalscorer" of all-time (ie. Ovechkin), or play 82 games a season until he's like 42 (to hit the games that Howe played). There is no logical reason to expext that.

In fact - I don't think you realize how unlikely it is that Matthews even plays until he's 40 (which is what your assumption of 12 more seasons after next season has it at.

Look at the last couple seasons amongst forwards. ZERO 40 year old seasons. The reality is, it is unlikely that Matthews even plays in his 38 and 39 year old seasons, let alone puts up 80 goals between the 2 seasons.

On top of that, a good chunk of these guys that were 37/38/39 were all playing like 55 games or less (injuries much more likely at that older age)

I would go further to call this "Matthews 99% best-case scenario"
Matthews would still need to have almost everything go right for him to hit this (and still fall 50+ goals short of Ovi.

He'd need to:
1) Score 110 goals in the next 2 seasons, which would be the highest 2 year goal total of his career.
2) Stay extremely healthy - which he does not have a great record of so far. No reason to think that will change or get better in his 30's
3) Actually play in his 38 and 39 year old seasons - which as illustrated above, is unlikely.
5) Matthews would need to have the 10th highest goal total for each "x" aged season in NHL history for ages 31 to 39 (ie. 41 goals is the 10th highest ever done by a 33 year old. 36 goals is the 10th by a 34 year old).

For #5 above: This would require him to not only stay healthy, but to have an all-time level of consistency and dominance as a 30's goal scorer. This would require of him to score 312 goals from age 31 onwards, which would be the 3rd best behind the 2 most dominance age 30 goal scorers of all-time - both of who have significantly better durability than Matthews.

 

[Rec T]

I don't think he has the durability to do so. He seems like the kind of guy that will battle injuries most of career.

Yep. Ovie is a beast, AM can't even compare.

Then too there's the possibility that he decides that there's no way to reach those heights, realize that he's already made more money than he can spend, & just walk away before the injuries become life changing. Very unlikely I realize, but with the money he & others make I'm surprised that it doesn't happen more often. Decades ago players needed to play long careers to earn enough to set themselves up for life. These days star/superstar players can do that with one contract past their ELC one.

(of course just saying/thinking about that shows that I don't have the drive to make the NHL at any level of player... complete lack of skill probably also factors in)

 

[Karl Eriksson]

No, too injury prone. Ovy's longevity is also very atypical.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

OV in his prime years played for a President's Trophy and a Stanley Cup contender. Matthews plays for a meh-mediocre team.

Assuming Matthews could catch OV...the Leafs will fail Matthews, it's their nature of the beast.

 

[The Shadow]

Oh my god, the wrist thing again? Is his wrist made of dry spaghetti noodles or something? The excuses Leafs fans have for him are amazing.

The NHL is hard, but defaulting to some ridiculous phantom injury every time Matthews doesn't score 60 goals is laughable. Matthews is the best goal scorer in the NHL currently, but he's not that good that 60 should be the expectation year after year.

His shot doesn’t just down on average 10 miles an hour which is what the stats are showing. Give me a break and get over yourself

The number don’t lie

 

[TheDoldrums]

2) Peak play - Matthews has scored 50 actual goals or more only twice in his prime aged years. Expecting 105 goals in his 28 and 29 year old seasons are also unlikely when you factor in time missed to injuries and the natural aging curve.

This is pretty misleading as he would have double that amount if the pandemic hadn’t shortened multiple seasons.

If he’s healthy 105 goals over his next two seasons doesn’t seem especially unlikely given his career pace.

 

[triggrman]

No.

Not too many absolutes. But this is one.

OVs durability is off the charts

I mean this is it. OV is a great goal scorer with great durability. Most players would have retired 5 years ago.

 

[Randyne]

You can look at their numbers to the same age.

The same age 20-27:
Ovechkin: 62 G above 2nd place; 38 P above 2nd place (320 P above his own teammate)
Matthews: 9 G above 2nd place; 276 P behind 1st place (21 P behind his own teammate)
They are completely on different tiers. Only DPE 2.0 makes their goals stat look similar.
The only reason to compare them is to make Ovechkin look mortal.

 

[gtrower]

People didn't think someone would pass Gretzky and bam Ovechkin is doing it.

It's possible id give it a 10 to 15 percent chance Matthews breaks it.
He is going to need some good scoring years though so when he gets older he doesn't have to hit such high numbers. This year a down year brings the odds down and any down year will continue to do so.

Another year or two of 60 goal seasons would be huge.

10-15% chance. So about 7-1. I’d take that bet right now if youd like.

 

[BallardEra]

I mean this is it. OV is a great goal scorer with great durability. Most players would have retired 5 years ago.

And even then, does he sign for 5 years to play until 40 if he truly didn't feel he had a shot at 894?

I'd say no.

Most players at that age would sign for 2 years at most so that's another thing to factor in.

Would most players want to even play until the age of 40?

 

[NVious]

Unfortunately Matthews is just too injury prone, it's an interesting question to where he ends up all together.

It would be cool if he could get over 800 forget 900.

 

[filinski77]

This is pretty misleading as he would have double that amount if the pandemic hadn’t shortened multiple seasons.

If he’s healthy 105 goals over his next two seasons doesn’t seem especially unlikely given his career pace.

It's not misleading. It factors in things such as injuries, lockouts etc. It happened to Ovi and it happened to Matthews.

Matthews has created himself a 3 stage career for his goalscoring so far. First 3 years of being a great goalscorer, but not the best in the league. Next 3 years where he was the bonafide #1 in the world. and then the last 3 years where has 2 disappointing goalscoring seasons mixed in with a great one.


Here is a rough analysis of the age that the top-22 non-Ovechkin goal scorers started to decline at. The average age here is 28 years old.

Given that:
1) Matthews now has 2 of his last 3 seasons that are significantly lower than his peak goalscoring play
2) Next season is his 28 year old season
3) Matthews has had some injury trouble in his career so far

It is very reasonable to expect that Matthews will score less than 105 goals in his next 2 years.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If the mini DPE of the 2010s wasn’t fixed with rule changes Ovi wouldn’t have a shot at the record, unpredictable outside factors like lockouts, rule changes, and expansion can easily sway things by 100 goals over 5 years in either direction.

 

[Video Nasty]

I still think the perception around Matthews and his tendency to miss games is a little overblown.

Fun fact. After returning from a shoulder injury on 11/28/18, all the way through 11/3/24, the last game he played before sitting out nine games, Matthews played in 396 of his team’s 418 games played. That’s 94.7% of the available games over a nearly 6 year stretch, or 78 games in an 82 game season.

Not saying there’s not a cumulative effect of injuries over the course of an ongoing career, and clearly his play has been hampered by his injury this season, and almost having his throat cut last night serve as a reminder, yeah, anything can happen at any time (obviously).

But until this season, the bulk of his missed time came as a sophomore. Ovechkin is one of the gold standards when it comes to suiting up night in and night out, but I think Matthews reputation as injury prone leading to frequent chunks of missed time is a little unfair.

His biggest problem right now is that Ovechkin is still playing and continuing to add to his soon to be new record.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Matthews is literally a goal or 2 off at the same age.

Matthews has 299 goals Ovechkin had 300 or 301

So It's very close

Right, but is Matthews going to play until age 40 while consistently scoring at a 50 goal pace?

 

[PaulD]

I mean this is it. OV is a great goal scorer with great durability. Most players would have retired 5 years ago.

He's a beast..