Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?
- Thread starter Dead Coyote
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FissionFire
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To be fair, Ovechkin had some pretty mediocre years as well. Not saying Matthew’s will surpass him (I don’t think he will) but saying he won’t because of this one season is premature.
With Matthews the obvious concern is his durability. He hasn’t even hit 30 yet, and has had some injury concerns. Ovi’s goal scoring in his 30s is comparable to his 20s. A split of: 475/419. By contrast, Gretzky scored a whopping 677 of his goals before 30.
With Matthews we’ll have to see how his game evolves in his 30s. Ovi has had to change his game a few times now, and has remarkably kept about the same g/gp rate.
I hope AM overcomes some of his lingering health issues, and puts up more 50g seasons (and wins a Cup). But 600-700 is prob his ceiling.
With Matthews we’ll have to see how his game evolves in his 30s. Ovi has had to change his game a few times now, and has remarkably kept about the same g/gp rate.
I hope AM overcomes some of his lingering health issues, and puts up more 50g seasons (and wins a Cup). But 600-700 is prob his ceiling.
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SlimCharles
Kings & Sabres
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LOL! No. Only 3 players have ever even hit 800, and if Ovie does what everyone expects, he’ll be well over 900 when all is said and done. No one playing hockey today sniffs his numbers.
Plural
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There are down seasons for both. One telling thing is though, Ovechkin has been outside of top-10 in goals three times in his career. That's the same amount as Matthews.
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I think his career stat line upon retiring might look something like Stamkos' stats right now, but with fewer games played. I agree that he can get to 600 but not sure if he will.
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DRW895
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Matthews fails to surpass 37+ years old Oveckin in goals twice in 3 last seasons. That`s the answer
Video Nasty
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True statement, but another way to look at it is this:
Ovechkin had his own “blemishes” at the ages you’re focusing on for Matthews.
Age 25-27 Ovechkin: 32 in 79, 38 in 78, and a return to form 32 in 48, but shortened season. 102 goals in 3 seasons.
Age 25-27 Matthews: 40 in 74, 69 in 81, and 29 in 60 with 7 games remaining. 138 goals and counting in 3 seasons. Matthews in just his age 26 season scored just one fewer goal than Ovechkin’s age 25 and 26 full seasons combined.
No question that Ovechkin at 39 setting the record in style is having a better season than the clearly injured age 27 Matthews, but that doesn’t mean Matthews still can’t continue scoring goals at a torrid clip going forward.
This season hurts Matthews, no doubt, and it doesn’t help that Ovechkin is going to score close to 50 goals at 39 and still has yet another year to pad his record before giving Matthews a final tally to shoot for.
If Ovechkin leaves the game with his final total somewhere in that 940-950 range, and Matthews has another down year of 30-40 goals in tandem, to be a full 500 goals behind, then yes, it’s probably not looking good.
Matthews isn’t out of it yet.
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
At this point he's 497 goals back which would require 38.23 goals per season for 13 straight seasons.
This takes him through his age 28-40 seasons.
Ovechkin has averaged 42.8 goals over his past 13 seasons. (Age 27-39 seasons)
This takes him through his age 28-40 seasons.
Ovechkin has averaged 42.8 goals over his past 13 seasons. (Age 27-39 seasons)
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KingDeathMetal
Registered User
I imagine that if Ovie’s record is broken eventually, he will still hold the post-30 goals record forever. He’ll pass Howe next year and wherever he stops, if that record does fall eventually, it won’t be to anyone who is currently 27. Someone will have to put up closer to 550-600 in the first half of their career, IMO. No one is gonna have an Ovie level 30-40 as a goal scorer.
4 times for Ovechkin
3 times for Matthews (before this season - this season will be 4th, if he doesn't somehow catch up).
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
No he won't. Ovechkin is most likely done after next season when his contract is up.
Scoring levels play a big part.
Before this down season - and ignoring raw goals - I'm not sure that I had Ovechkin ahead of Matthews as a goal-scorer by age 27. It's close either way, and worth a deeper analysis.
Can Matthews keep up with Ovechkin and be a better goal-scorer than Ovi in his 30s? That's unlikely - but for raw goals, it's easier if scoring levels are higher. I think that's Matthews's potential trump card. If scoring levels remain high - higher than they were for a lot of Ovechkin's 30s - Matthews could hypothetically be a ~20% less effective goal-scorer than Ovechkin in his 30s, yet still pace him on raw goals.
Will Matthews surpass 895? It's at least possible. I'd say:
~99% he hits 600+
~95% he hits 700+
~50%+ he hits 800+
~10% he hits 895+
Maybe you can play around with the percentages a bit - but if Matthews can bounce back with back to back ~55+ goal seasons next 2 years, I like his odds of making a run at 900. Of course if he struggles again or has injuries again and does ~30 goals, then the chances of hitting 900 will disappear very quickly. The margin for error is almost inexistant considering how consistent Ovechkin has always been.
Plural
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Ahh, missed one. Thanks for clarifying. So it's 4 and 4 after this season
Plural
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Curious about the percentages, do you have some calculations behind them or is it more of a analysis/educated guess?
Will be interesting to see in the upcoming years how Matthews paces against OV's career. Goal-scorers often slow down around 30-years old. But truly great ones manage to stay as league leading threats up until 35-36. That's where Matthews needa to be if he is going to break Ovechkin's record. Unless of course, like you said, scoring goes up.
It’s completely his guesses. 95% at 700? He’s at 398. A 95% chance that he scores 302 more goals is not a remotely realistic percentage; it’s just his feeling.
He’s at 398 9 years into his career. 9 more years would be an 18 year career with no fall off at all, and that would bring him to 796. 50% chance that he makes 800? It’s like a 20% chance. 10% chance he breaks the all time NHL goal record and scores 900+? It’s a .1% chance. It’s POSSIBLE. It’s also possible Makar has a 50 goal aeason or McDavid scores 175.
Ozz
Registered User
I felt strongly on here 12+ years ago that Ovie would break Gretzky's record, so I'll also say that I don't think Matthews will break Ovie's. Whether it's lack of longevity or decline in skill (edit: i meant "output", as his skills would compare to the younger crop of players in later years) I don't see it happening. If it does, I'd be psyched to see it happen yet again in my lifetime, but he doesn't have that drive Ovie does. And he can be stopped, unlike Ovie. Something will knock his production down.
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BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
Matthews also has the advantage of Ovechkin missing his age 19 season due to the lockout and another half season to another lockout.
He doesn't necessarily have to play to the same age as Ovechkin if he matches his productivity and longevity.
He doesn't necessarily have to play to the same age as Ovechkin if he matches his productivity and longevity.
HockeyVirus
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