Will he stay or go? Let's talk some Mr. Huberdeau.

[TheImpatientPanther]

171 goals, 510pts in 601 regular season games as a Panther as of November 5th, 2021.

10 years has really flown by.
From 3rd overall a decade ago to over 600 NHL games played.

Really feels like if we didn't do so well in 2020-21, he may actually leave.
Now with Barkov inked until the next decade, it seems like Huberdeau will stay?
This will likely be a topic all year long, maybe on back burner until after regular season and playoff run but interested to hear what you all think he will do?

He can extend in July of next year, just like Barkov could this past offseason, one year ahead the current contract expiring.

Johnny will be 30 when the new deal would kick in, I'd overpay to keep it under 8yrs.

Will he stay? If so, what are the terms and AAV?
Will he go? If so, where could you see him sign?​

Click to read more...

 

[pantherbot]

Players like him can play at a high level well into their mid to even late 30's nowadays. The whole thing about the age curve is that the data is based on older data before all the new sports science was applied to today's players. Just look at the elite players today, they're still going strong even if not necessarily at the same levels they were before. Not to mention every player is different, different styles, different bodies and mileage, different skill sets. I'm wiling to bet Huby will be productive even past 35.

Most recent comps I think would be Landeskog ($7M, age 28), RNH ($5.1M, age 27), Hall ($6M, age 29), and Gallagher ($6.5M, age 28).

Huby will be entering his year 30 when he starts next contract (negative), produces more points than Landeskog, RNH, and Gallagher (positive), and has been a good team player (positive). He's also generally been underpaid while with Florida.

So if I had to guess, open market Huby would be worth around $7-8M AAV x 7 years. Assuming we get a bit of a hometown discount given this is where he wants to play and gives him the best chance to win, plus Barkov took less than market value, but we also reward him for loyalty and getting paid a bit less in his current contract, I'd say we could get something done at $6.5-7M AAV x 8 years or $7.5-8M x 6 years.

 

[Dread Clawz]

He'll stay. I'll say 9.25M

 

[pantherbot]

He'll stay. I'll say 9.25M

No way, not at that price. If a younger Landeskog and Hall don't break $7M, why does Huby get $9M??

 

[Dread Clawz]

No way, not at that price. If a younger Landeskog and Hall don't break $7M, why does Huby get $9M??

Huby>>>Hall
Huby is a top 3 playmaker in the league. Landy is way underpaid, that's obvious.

 

[kerrabria]

Give him 8 years to keep the number down. I'll hope for something that starts with an 8, but I'm preparing for $9m flat.

 

[pantherbot]

Huby>>>Hall
Huby is a top 3 playmaker in the league. Landy is way underpaid, that's obvious.

Right, but Hall is one year younger, has the Hart trophy pedigree, and is only on a four year deal which typically have higher AAVs.

So unless you're saying Huby goes for a four-year deal, there's no way he's getting anywhere close to $9M.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Right, but Hall is one year younger, has the Hart trophy pedigree, and is only on a four year deal which typically have higher AAVs.

So unless you're saying Huby goes for a four-year deal, there's no way he's getting anywhere close to $9M.

One year younger so what...Hart Trophy pedigree means little, that was a one off and besides that one season Hall has not been a contender for the Hart. Everyone knows what he is by now. Huby is a far superior player to Hall.

 

[kerrabria]

No way, not at that price. If a younger Landeskog and Hall don't break $7M, why does Huby get $9M??

Landeskog isn't in the same tier of playesr that Huberdeau is, and Hall took a massive underpayment to play for the specific team he wanted.

 

[austropanther]

Don't forget he even added penalty killing to his skills - thank you Q for that. Most likely will give him some leverage in contract talks...

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

A few years ago I would’ve been fine either way if walked or stayed with us. Now, he’s amazing and we gotta lock him up.

 

[Panteras]

I’m hopeful he resigns. Big positives that are in favor of him staying are a capable supporting GM, building a winning exciting team, Barkov resigning, Bennet, and just already feeling comfortable and rooted here. He wants to win here and things are going great so far this season.

 

[PanthersHockey1]

Can we afford him? Who do we lose?

 

[pantherbot]

The changes in salary cap expectations makes a huge difference going forward. Look at Barkov, he got $10M x 8 and is arguably way more important and a better player than Huby. Why would Huby, at an older age, get $9M when Barkov got $10M? That' makes no sense.

 

[ShootIt]

I think so. With Barkov at 10mil, I think Zito locks him up at 8.5milx8

 

[Dread Clawz]

Can we afford him? Who do we lose?

Most likely Weegar, both contracts end in 2023.

 

[pantherbot]

Landeskog isn't in the same tier of playesr that Huberdeau is, and Hall took a massive underpayment to play for the specific team he wanted.

Landeskog 2 years younger and the Av's captain. Also strictly from a PPG basis is very close to Huber.

Again, Hall took a four year contract which typically raises the AAV. So let's say he went to market, adjust for big underpayment, that's what...$7-8M? But it's a shorter term, so typically higher AAV. Adjust for a longer-term and you'll get back to ~$6-7M, and he's one year older than Huber.

You can't look at these things from a homer perspective. If it was up to some of this board, we'd be paying Barkov $12M AAV.

 

[Dread Clawz]

The changes in salary cap expectations makes a huge difference going forward. Look at Barkov, he got $10M x 8 and is arguably way more important and a better player than Huby. Why would Huby, at an older age, get $9M when Barkov got $10M? That' makes no sense.

Huby is usually our leading scorer. Why is it crazy that he gets 9 if Barky gets 10? I don't get it.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Landeskog 2 years younger and the Av's captain. Also strictly from a PPG basis is very close to Huber.

Again, Hall took a four year contract which typically raises the AAV. So let's say he went to market, adjust for big underpayment, that's what...$7-8M? But it's a shorter term, so typically higher AAV. Adjust for a longer-term and you'll get back to ~$6-7M, and he's one year older than Huber.

You can't look at these things from a homer perspective. If it was up to some of this board, we'd be paying Barkov $12M AAV.

If Barkov went to the open market, he'd get 12.

 

[Gentle Man]

What am I missing here. Huby looks to be the youngest

 

[pantherbot]

What am I missing here. Huby looks to be the youngest

I'm more referring to when they sign the contract, not current age.

 

[Gentle Man]

I'm more referring to when they sign the contract, not current age.

Yea he will be 30.

Difference between Landeskog and Huby is Landeskog actually plays a heavy game compared to Huby.

Hall's price bottomed because he kept hopping on year deals and had down years in Arizona and Buffalo.

Hall

Declining in games played and production. History of injuries.

Landeskog is quite obviously the 3rd wheel on that line and is getting paid accordingly. He produces, but as a product of Mac and Ranta

Huby

His production has held steadier than Hall

8-9 is a fair range

 

[PanthersHockey1]

Most likely Weegar, both contracts end in 2023.

Well that sucks. I mean I don' think we can afford to lose our #2 overall D-man also.

 

[pantherbot]

Huby is usually our leading scorer. Why is it crazy that he gets 9 if Barky gets 10? I don't get it.

If Barkov went to the open market, he'd get 12.

Love Huberdeau, don't get me wrong here, but Barkov is the much better complete player and worth more. He's a center, he scores almost near the same pace as Huber, but against higher competition, takes more defensive zone starts, plays pk and pp, he's our captain, I could go on. Then in addition to that, 3 years younger when the contract starts which is a huge difference. So yeah, if Barkov gets $10M, I don't think Huber should be anywhere near that.

 

[pantherbot]

Yea he will be 30.

Difference between Landeskog and Huby is Landeskog actually plays a heavy game compared to Huby.

Hall's price bottomed because he kept hopping on year deals and had down years in Arizona and Buffalo.

Hall

Declining in games played and production. History of injuries.

Landeskog is quite obviously the 3rd wheel on that line and is getting paid accordingly. He produces, but as a product of Mac and Ranta

Huby

His production has held steadier than Hall

8-9 is a fair range

I already acknowledged that Huber will likely be more productive than a Landeskog in my first post, but you also have to consider the theoretical drop-off in play between ages 36 and 38 can be pretty steep. The farther out you go on the curve, it's like a cliff at some point. So it matters a lot for these longer-term contract discussions and unfortunately for Huby, the way his contracts have been timed, he'll be at that 30 year mark that is not great for his negotiating position. Just think back to the days when UFAs didn't hit the market until they were 31...all those signings were a disaster. As I've said above, sports science is better now and Huber's game should age well, but as anyone over 30 knows, things just aren't the same.

The 3rd wheel argument against Landeskog can also be applied to Huberdeau. He either benefits from playing with an elite center in Barkov or gets weaker opposition on the 2nd line.

With regards to Hall, the argument about his inconsistent play can go both ways. He clearly showed a high level of play before getting bounced around, and now has finally found a good spot with Boston. So yes he gets a discount for the recent inconsistency, but he has proven to play at an elite level with a higher ceiling that has not been shown by Huber. Not sure how you can look at Hall and Huber and say Huber should get 30% more than Hall.

Even so, if you're correct at $8-9M market value for Huber, and as others have suggested Barkov could have gotten $12M on open market. Apply the 17% discount to the $8-9M, and you arrive at $7.1M.