Speculation: Will Dubas fix The Hockey Futures of the Toronto Maple Leafs?

[Stephen]

There are few really low cost talents out there that are not on ELC's. (> $2M).

The market inefficiencies are found in the next level (say $3-$4M range) where you get a may get a guy for 3.5 that performs like a $5 or $6M player. If you can get 3 or 4 of them, you can ice a good team, and it allows for some $7-$8 players.

Trouble with the Leafs right now, is they can't go and get a few guys like that because they need to fill out the roster with the >$2M guys because.......Dubas

Yeah, the inefficiency is something like trying to find Tyler Toffoli at $4.25 million and he can give you a Nylander-ish season and a playoff resume to help you make a run. These guys are out there but Toronto's stretching out those last remaining cap dollars to fill multiple positions and are relying on league minimum deals to average down those massive Big 4 deals.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Yeah, the inefficiency is something like trying to find Tyler Toffoli at $4.25 million and he can give you a Nylander-ish season and a playoff resume to help you make a run. These guys are out there but Toronto's stretching out those last remaining cap dollars to fill multiple positions and are relying on league minimum deals to average down those massive Big 4 deals.

The weight of the big contracts is crushing

Look no further than Chicago and LA. Perennial contenders until the massive contracts took over

 

[harvestglen]

All I ask - don't stick with a totally gutless team because we have the talent
And come out and recognize your shit show instead of talking about developing a killer instinct. Own it - these guys don't play hard.
It's still excuses
Shanny f***ing man up and hold people accountable.Or at least hold yourself accountable

I wasn't particularly interested in the end of season presser, and I'm not sure what would have made it especially compelling in a helpful way. I don't think there's anything that can be fixed in that moment. We're at a point where I'd argue no amount of goodwill can be fully restored in a regular season even. We can quibble over how upfront to be publicly and what those courses should be, but I don't think there are any answers or philosophies, those held by the front office or those purported by people here, we should necessarily fall in love with. There's no more powerful a sentiment than results hindsight, but there's only so much we can do with that.

 

[FraumBallard]

On the other hand though, I do think stability and continuity could be what gets the Leafs out of this rut. Not a sunk cost issue but let this management team move forward with what they've learned and let them grow the program accordingly without the pressure of making a critical error in more all in self preservation moves.

The other extreme scenario of a full on regime change, mandate in new management and a jar head GM and task master coach rooting out the country club set is also a dysfunctional dynamic I'd like to avoid at all costs. Might be satisfying in the moment but these grit grind programs are built over a long period of time and you can't have a new staff throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Really interesting how you continually defend Wonder Boy via pretend, hypothetical worst case alternative looks.
Admit it.
Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe has been a complete disaster.
Results don’t lie.
Disingenuous narratives are sometimes a different matter.

 

[Pengu]

Dubas has had ample time and shown that he is incapable of performing his duties at an adequate level.
Yes, I was very diplomatic....

 

[Stephen]

Really interesting how you continually defend Wonder Boy via pretend, hypothetical worst case alternative looks.
Admit it.
Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe has been a complete disaster.
Results don’t lie.
Disingenuous narratives are sometimes a different matter.

This must be for someone else because I'm hardly a Dubas supporter and running out of patience for Shanahan.

The 'narrative' is actually more of a reflection on recent Leafs history where violent regime changes seem to coincide with a new president and GM's "with a job to do", such as Cliff Fletcher and Brian Burke combining to demolish the Muskoka 5 by getting returns amounting to pennies on the dollar. Or Brendan Shanahan coming in and resetting the franchise back to expansion levels of talent, not the wrong move at the time, but look how deep these mandated cuts tend to go.

I think what we really want is a cap restructuring at the top with the Big 4. My preference would be for Marner to go, but given age and decline and the premium we paid for Tavares, I don't mind if he leaves either. I still think a Matthews led championship is what we should be building towards, but the question is how do we get to building again without toppling the Jenga Tower.

 

[Stephen]

I wasn't particularly interested in the end of season presser, and I'm not sure what would have made it especially compelling in a helpful way. I don't think there's anything that can be fixed in that moment. We're at a point where I'd argue no amount of goodwill can be fully restored in a regular season even. We can quibble over how upfront to be publicly and what those courses should be, but I don't think there are any answers or philosophies, those held by the front office or those purported by people here, we should necessarily fall in love with. There's no more powerful a sentiment than results hindsight, but there's only so much we can do with that.

The of the big problems with this build is Dubas and friends have pushed their own very specific vision of a championship team, so you get the feeling there's a big ego component to the way they want to do things, vs having confidence they'll explore all avenues, leave no stones unturned and be ruthless in pursuit of a title.

Where it could really go off course is if the organization digs in with a "we'll show the detractors how wrong they are" mentality and their success becomes untethered from the fanbase. Recalls the Salute Gate incident and some of the nastier team vs public relationships.

 

[Peiskos]

I see a lot of people over thinking and cover complicating it. The Leafs will not win a single thing with having so much of their cap allocated to 3-4 players. Simply isn’t going to happen.

To top it off the hugest paid players on the teams are probably the softest and most heartless players in the NHL. A major shake up needs to happen, the fact that is hasn’t and won’t tells you all you need to know about this franchise.

Shanahan has been in town for how long now? Oh yes since 2014, it’s been nearly a decade and still haven’t been out of the 1st round. That loser needs to go too.

 

[Dough72]

first they surrounded the core with undersized pond-hockey players. Then they scrapped that plan and started looking for size and toughness and veterans. That complete 180 is pretty strong evidence our management doesn't actually have a coherent plan.

 

[AuraSphere]

Whatever happened to SDA? Seemed like a really good prospect back in 2018 after his training camp and looked like an 18 year old that coould make the roster out of camp. How has he looked in his limited AHL games?

 

[Dough72]

I see a lot of people over thinking and cover complicating it. The Leafs will not win a single thing with having so much of their cap allocated to 3-4 players. Simply isn’t going to happen.

disagree completely I think we are lucky as hell to have all that talent, other gms would kill for a chance to build a team around that talent. Auston Matthews, Jon Tavares, and Marner and Nylander and Reilly it's an absolute embarrassment of riches. They just need to surround them with the right players instead of consonantly screwing it up. Like they finally do something good and add Jason Spezza but then completely ruin it with Thornton, Simmonds, and Foligno. Hitting on only 1 out of 4 veterans is just not good enough, and they have wiffed on all sorts of other players over the years too.

 

[Racer88]

Whatever happened to SDA? Seemed like a really good prospect back in 2018 after his training camp and looked like an 18 year old that coould make the roster out of camp. How has he looked in his limited AHL games?

Who is SDA

 

[Racer88]

disagree completely I think we are lucky as hell to have all that talent, other gms would kill for a chance to build a team around that talent. Auston Matthews, Jon Tavares, and Marner and Nylander and Reilly it's an absolute embarrassment of riches. They just need to surround them with the right players instead of consonantly screwing it up. Like they finally do something good and add Jason Spezza but then completely ruin it with Thornton, Simmonds, and Foligno. Hitting on only 1 out of 4 veterans is just not good enough, and they have wiffed on all sorts of other players over the years too.

Unfortunately Simmonds, Thornton and Foligno are the only types of players you can get when you have no money left because you spent 50% on the expensive 4 and yo are getting very little in return for such a huge investment

 

[HamiltonNHL]

New and New better be really good.

And free

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Who is SDA

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[TMLAM34]

Whatever happened to SDA? Seemed like a really good prospect back in 2018 after his training camp and looked like an 18 year old that coould make the roster out of camp. How has he looked in his limited AHL games?

Still only 20 years of age. He’s got some experience now in the KHL and got into the last few games for the Marlies. Put up a solid showing in both those leagues. We’ll get to watch him for a full AHL season coming up.

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

Can't see how this year's team will be able to look any better than last year's. Re-signing washed out Simmonds, for example, before Dubas even knew what else was available out there is just typical ineptitude.I also get the feeling we're going to start the see of a further decline in Tavares' game based off of observations.
People expecting big things from Robertson in his first year will probably be disappointed. I hope I'm wrong but watched him struggle in the AHL games and a guy like Caufield made him look poor by comparison.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

first they surrounded the core with undersized pond-hockey players. Then they scrapped that plan and started looking for size and toughness and veterans. That complete 180 is pretty strong evidence our management doesn't actually have a coherent plan.

They have a 5yr plan that changes every day according to Shanny. When they bring in Simmonds...who is a good fighter but way too light to be a hitter...it makes me think they really lost sight of what is needed. They need some hungry young buck that wants to make the team plying on the 4th line and trying to move up the ranks. We have Adam Brooks...semi skilled small guy as our young 4th liner. We barely gave Joey Anderson (Yes..that Anderson) a chance last year when we knew Hyman was going to UFA status.

It's like they will take a piece of a complete hockey player (tough, physical and can fight) and then just call it a day if they get one of those attributes. Which leads me to believe they think those attributes are hardly valued at all.

I can see Dubas Gleefully running into Daddy Shanny's office telling him how they signed Simmonds and that will keep the fans wanting rough and tumble players off his back, when what we needed is a Blake Coleman type of player instead. I don't care about fighting...so its low on the list to me.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Can't see how this year's team will be able to look any better than last year's. Re-signing washed out Simmonds, for example, before Dubas even knew what else was available out there is just typical ineptitude.I also get the feeling we're going to start the see of a further decline in Tavares' game based off of observations.
People expecting big things from Robertson in his first year will probably be disappointed. I hope I'm wrong but watched him struggle in the AHL games and a guy like Caufield made him look poor by comparison.

The issues I see with Robertson are 2-fold. He is pretty small and gets knocked over very easily against NHL level competition. He also has an amazing shot..but he takes forever to load it up because he is pretty small. Caulfield has a quick trigger and that helps a ton in a league that doesn't afford any time and space to players. Robby won't have the time to let it rip like he did in junior. He wasn't that great in the AHL either..but that could have been because of his injury early in the year.

I just don't see him panning out to what most guys think he will be.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

He doesn't have time he's out of excuses he NEEDS to make progress I think it's more likely he goes all in, and I don't mean a few picks like we saw at the deadline that's not all in, not a single prospect was traded, I'm taking about ALL IN, prospects, picks, young players, ALL futures.

This has got to be it, this has to be make or break for Dubas, there are no more short seasons or Tavares injury, or Muzzin injury to save his job this HAS to be it.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

When do we find out who the Leafs have exposed to the Kraken?

Look at the roster we already know

 

[Myopic]

Going into this off-season I'm feeling utterly hopeless about the Leafs future.

There is nothing to look forward to including the draft, and I have zero faith in the current management.

 

[ACC1224]

Look at the roster we already know

Ok, who stays and who is exposed?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Ok, who stays and who is exposed?

Up front the big 4

On D Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin Holl/Dermott but 99% Holl

Campbell

How is that not obvious?

 

[ACC1224]

Up front the big 4

On D Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin Holl/Dermott but 99% Holl

Campbell

How is that not obvious?

Who are you referring to as the big 4?
Doesn't appear obvious, , most would assume Dermott stays over Holl.