Will dubas ever try a major trade?

[deprw]

If you subtract the Muzzin deal, you'd still be looking at;

2x first round picks and 2x second round picks out and a combined result of 24 games of Tomas Plekanec, 11 games of Nick Foligno and 27 game of Brian Boyle and for Marleau to go away.

And in those 62 combined games we got out of those 4x picks, we got a total of 2x goals scored.

Those are some bad returns.

Those are bad returns, but you can't just sit on all of your picks. It would be neat timeline to research where we trade Bozak, JVR and Gardiner for value instead of trading for Boyle and Plekanec. Those were same way attempts to add some experience on young roster for playoffs in same way we went for Foligno and I still say it was logical move at that time. I think it's plain stupid to judge those trades based on outcome, if it was logical before playoffs to get rental it was worth the try. One of 31 teams wins every year so 30 teams makes mostly bad moves, if you only judge those based on results. I don't see Boyle or Plekanec adds as logical moves, but those were Lous call and I think he is well liked here. I don't understand why.

Marleau is no brainer since keeping him would have meant 6mil of dead cap space in 4th line and losing more young assets than just that 1st rounder. You have estimation how much value one mid to late round 1st rounder or 2nd round pick has in draft capital? I think trading Marleau meant that we could keep Kapanen longer as a player and then we traded him as an asset for Amirov and now McCann.

 

[gabeliscious]

I think rielly is going to be a major trade when dubas ships him out.

 

[FraumBallard]

I think rielly is going to be a major trade when dubas ships him out.

Hopefully Wonder Boy gets shipped out first.

 

[Stephen]

Those are bad returns, but you can't just sit on all of your picks. It would be neat timeline to research where we trade Bozak, JVR and Gardiner for value instead of trading for Boyle and Plekanec. Those were same way attempts to add some experience on young roster for playoffs in same way we went for Foligno and I still say it was logical move at that time. I think it's plain stupid to judge those trades based on outcome, if it was logical before playoffs to get rental it was worth the try. One of 31 teams wins every year so 30 teams makes mostly bad moves, if you only judge those based on results. I don't see Boyle or Plekanec adds as logical moves, but those were Lous call and I think he is well liked here. I don't understand why.

Marleau is no brainer since keeping him would have meant 6mil of dead cap space in 4th line and losing more young assets than just that 1st rounder. You have estimation how much value one mid to late round 1st rounder or 2nd round pick has in draft capital? I think trading Marleau meant that we could keep Kapanen longer as a player and then we traded him as an asset for Amirov and now McCann.

I think a well-oiled organization *can* sit on its picks and just take regular reps in the first and second rounds, and that would be my preference year over year because even if we look at the group of Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, Dermott, etc those are the players that can keep costs down, allow you to buy on the UFA market, etc. But obviously a big splash like the Tavares deal will have a big ripple effect throughout the organization.

The Marleau trade is closely linked to the Kapanen and Johnsson trades and we can look at it a number of different ways. Obviously Marleau was forced to be traded at the cost of the 1st, which bought one more evaluation year for the Leafs to decide what to do with Kappy and Johnsson. But it's also true that they could have traded Kapanen and Johnsson and just kept Marleau for the one extra year, saving the 1st in the process. Right now, the circle is closed and it looks like we got Amirov and McCann for Kapanen, but as much as this particular trade tree has been successful, a few others have not.

 

[Stephen]

i commented on your post earlier, we recouped a first for the Marleau deal (so we didn't really feel a negative effect there)

When we traded for Boyle and Plekanec in both years we had multiple 2nd's, in fact the 2nd's that were chosen by those teams didn't really amount to anything special.

Having multiple picks in the second round isn't a problem though, and the fact that Tampa and Montreal didn't do anything with them doesn't mean we couldn't have found something good with those picks.

 

[ULF_55]

The fate of the core 4 forwards is likely determined by this coming years playoffs. If things don't go as planned I'd expect one to be moved next off-season.

Rielly seems like he will be traded if an extension can't be reached. But at this point I'd say he likely re-signs with the team

It is all about the playoffs.

I can't see the upcoming playoffs turning out the same way.

Heck, maybe if they had the top 4 things would have been different, but they played final round with 1 top line forward contributing.

If something like that happens again, you have to address the issue, and maybe get the struggling players into a market without the same amount of pressure.

I just don't see a major trade happening this year, unless the major piece leaving is Rielly, but I think he is too overrated by management.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I care about results and Dubas hasn't gotten any in 3 years as GM. If we fall to advance past the first round again, next season should be his last.

No GM has had the results in 17 years.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Hopefully Wonder Boy gets shipped out first.

Who is that?

 

[deprw]

I think a well-oiled organization *can* sit on its picks and just take regular reps in the first and second rounds, and that would be my preference year over year because even if we look at the group of Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, Dermott, etc those are the players that can keep costs down, allow you to buy on the UFA market, etc. But obviously a big splash like the Tavares deal will have a big ripple effect throughout the organization.

The Marleau trade is closely linked to the Kapanen and Johnsson trades and we can look at it a number of different ways. Obviously Marleau was forced to be traded at the cost of the 1st, which bought one more evaluation year for the Leafs to decide what to do with Kappy and Johnsson. But it's also true that they could have traded Kapanen and Johnsson and just kept Marleau for the one extra year, saving the 1st in the process. Right now, the circle is closed and it looks like we got Amirov and McCann for Kapanen, but as much as this particular trade tree has been successful, a few others have not.

That Tavares acquisition put us into this cycle of assets and that is something we will be discussing for years, if it was worth it. In some sense it's plain stupid since adding Tavares back then was no brainer, after decade hunting for true 1st and 2nd line centers. It had effects on us still and I agree with you fully, that we should have healthy pipeline of 1st and 2nd round picks to build on.

That Marleau trade was one effect of Tavares signing. Without it we would have had cap space for Marleaus third year, but it's hard to argue we would have been better team with Marleau and without Tavares. I think this fanbase craves on winning and I don't know if keeping Marleau for one year and wasting one year of this core would have been worth it. I think we could have moved Kapanen and Johnson as cap casualty, but it's hard to get any value in that position. That McCann trade showed it once again, when we picked value asset for good B grade prospect. Though we lost value on Johnson, because of that one year wait. So it's hard to fully calculate, but I think these Kapanen, Hallander trades have shown that losing that first rounder was right move.

It would be neat to have those assets from Marleau and Muzzin trades, but even without Tavares or with Tavares our core would be still players they are now and we would had to acquire more parts for draft picks or draft those players. We haven't been able to do that and that is why we had to trade for Muzzin. Draft picks are also only one avenue, we have added european UFAs and we have our university / ECHL pipeline, so this is front office is mixing all these ways to gain assets. We have added Mikheyev and Holl that way.

 

[darrylsittler27]

I don't think the offers Dubas' warrant a major trade. I could be wrong but if Pitts offers me Crosby for Marner, I'd look at it but wouldn't do it. He would do a big trade if the offer was there.

 

[Stephen]

That Tavares acquisition put us into this cycle of assets and that is something we will be discussing for years, if it was worth it. In some sense it's plain stupid since adding Tavares back then was no brainer, after decade hunting for true 1st and 2nd line centers. It had effects on us still and I agree with you fully, that we should have healthy pipeline of 1st and 2nd round picks to build on.

That Marleau trade was one effect of Tavares signing. Without it we would have had cap space for Marleaus third year, but it's hard to argue we would have been better team with Marleau and without Tavares. I think this fanbase craves on winning and I don't know if keeping Marleau for one year and wasting one year of this core would have been worth it. I think we could have moved Kapanen and Johnson as cap casualty, but it's hard to get any value in that position. That McCann trade showed it once again, when we picked value asset for good B grade prospect. Though we lost value on Johnson, because of that one year wait. So it's hard to fully calculate, but I think these Kapanen, Hallander trades have shown that losing that first rounder was right move.

It would be neat to have those assets from Marleau and Muzzin trades, but even without Tavares or with Tavares our core would be still players they are now and we would had to acquire more parts for draft picks or draft those players. We haven't been able to do that and that is why we had to trade for Muzzin. Draft picks are also only one avenue, we have added european UFAs and we have our university / ECHL pipeline, so this is front office is mixing all these ways to gain assets. We have added Mikheyev and Holl that way.

In the end, I think the main problem I have with the way the Shanaplan regime worked out is a big philosophical disappointment more than the on ice disappointment. When the Shanaplan was implemented, the went with a scorched earth rebuild and put so many resources and assets into building a homegrown crop of talent to fuel a rebuild. At last! Imagine the promise of draft and develop organization, deep prospect pool with the budgetary muscle of the biggest market in the league... now by necessity we've turned into a big market team that churns through interchangeable supporting casts to balance out a top heavy "post-championship" core without a championship.

 

[Cpt Maple Leaf]

No. He is too proud.

 

[cupcrazyman]

If a Major trade means trading away most of your high draft picks ,then yes.

 

[Racer88]

In the end, I think the main problem I have with the way the Shanaplan regime worked out is a big philosophical disappointment more than the on ice disappointment. When the Shanaplan was implemented, the went with a scorched earth rebuild and put so many resources and assets into building a homegrown crop of talent to fuel a rebuild. At last! Imagine the promise of draft and develop organization, deep prospect pool with the budgetary muscle of the biggest market in the league... now by necessity we've turned into a big market team that churns through interchangeable supporting casts to balance out a top heavy "post-championship" core without a championship.

This is so true and this is all on Dubas and Shanny

 

[Garthinater]

Muzzin
Campbell
Barrie
Kerfoot
Foligno
Ceci
Clifford
Nash
Rittich
Petan
Malgin
Anderson
Vehviläinen

Kadri
Kapanen
Brown
Johnsson
Zaitsev
Marleau
Leivo
Lehtonen
Moore
Timashov


In 3yrs so far.

What a terrible list of trades.

Dubas is bad at almost every aspect of his job.

 

[The CyNick]

It is all about the playoffs.

I can't see the upcoming playoffs turning out the same way.

Heck, maybe if they had the top 4 things would have been different, but they played final round with 1 top line forward contributing.

If something like that happens again, you have to address the issue, and maybe get the struggling players into a market without the same amount of pressure.

I just don't see a major trade happening this year, unless the major piece leaving is Rielly, but I think he is too overrated by management.

Keep running it back mentally. Let's see how it turns out. I'm not confident. Good chance Leafs draw Florida, Tampa or Boston in the first round. And it's possible that run it back mentality may put Leafs on the outside looking in.

 

[deprw]

In the end, I think the main problem I have with the way the Shanaplan regime worked out is a big philosophical disappointment more than the on ice disappointment. When the Shanaplan was implemented, the went with a scorched earth rebuild and put so many resources and assets into building a homegrown crop of talent to fuel a rebuild. At last! Imagine the promise of draft and develop organization, deep prospect pool with the budgetary muscle of the biggest market in the league... now by necessity we've turned into a big market team that churns through interchangeable supporting casts to balance out a top heavy "post-championship" core without a championship.

Hunter was hired to do that and it was major failure for us. I think our drafting after 1st round have been plain bad even after we changed most of our scouting staff. I'd say that Dave Morrison did better on job on later rounds than Hunters regime did. Though I still think our rebuild accelerated mostly because we were lucky when we got Nylander, Marner and Matthews on first round. You don't usually find three that good and ready players on first round year after year after year. It might take years of drafting Zachas, Hischiers and Ty Smiths. Or what Detroit is doing that they're drafting around 5th and can't find proper talent. I think that was the pain Babcock was promising to us, but in the end we got to this point pretty fast and now we're puzzled because we are on this phase of moving chairs with our supporting cast and this stagnated cap don't help us one bit.

 

[ShaneFalco]

In the end, I think the main problem I have with the way the Shanaplan regime worked out is a big philosophical disappointment more than the on ice disappointment. When the Shanaplan was implemented, the went with a scorched earth rebuild and put so many resources and assets into building a homegrown crop of talent to fuel a rebuild. At last! Imagine the promise of draft and develop organization, deep prospect pool with the budgetary muscle of the biggest market in the league... now by necessity we've turned into a big market team that churns through interchangeable supporting casts to balance out a top heavy "post-championship" core without a championship.

Or eve a first round win

 

[The CyNick]

In the end, I think the main problem I have with the way the Shanaplan regime worked out is a big philosophical disappointment more than the on ice disappointment. When the Shanaplan was implemented, the went with a scorched earth rebuild and put so many resources and assets into building a homegrown crop of talent to fuel a rebuild. At last! Imagine the promise of draft and develop organization, deep prospect pool with the budgetary muscle of the biggest market in the league... now by necessity we've turned into a big market team that churns through interchangeable supporting casts to balance out a top heavy "post-championship" core without a championship.

Very well put. We also have a President and media who treats the current GM with the reverence of a GM who has won multiple Cups. Meanwhile he's never had success in the NHL. Strange world.

 

[Gary Nylund]

13 acquisitions in 3 years and 2 (maybe 3) roster players still around to show for it.

That can't be considered a good trade record, can it?

It can if you cherry pick only the parts of the truth that fit your agenda.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like Zeke's numbers don't include the upcoming draft where Dubas has traded most of our picks. Now that's one hell of a cherry!

 

[egd27]

It can if you cherry pick only the parts of the truth that fit your agenda.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like Zeke's numbers don't include the upcoming draft where Dubas has traded most of our picks. Now that's one hell of a cherry!

LOL.....yes there was no mention on the cost of those acquisitions.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think a well-oiled organization *can* sit on its picks and just take regular reps in the first and second rounds, and that would be my preference year over year because even if we look at the group of Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, Dermott, etc those are the players that can keep costs down, allow you to buy on the UFA market, etc. But obviously a big splash like the Tavares deal will have a big ripple effect throughout the organization.

The Marleau trade is closely linked to the Kapanen and Johnsson trades and we can look at it a number of different ways. Obviously Marleau was forced to be traded at the cost of the 1st, which bought one more evaluation year for the Leafs to decide what to do with Kappy and Johnsson. But it's also true that they could have traded Kapanen and Johnsson and just kept Marleau for the one extra year, saving the 1st in the process. Right now, the circle is closed and it looks like we got Amirov and McCann for Kapanen, but as much as this particular trade tree has been successful, a few others have not.

We were meant to be competitive that year. What's the cost of renting a Johnsson + Kapanen for a year? Something around a 1st+2nd? We got that value out of them as well as a 1st + Anderson + McCann on top.

Playing Marleau + 1 million dollar UFAs instead of Kap+ Johnsson isn't an asset-neutral move, you have less value on the roster as a result of that move even if you recoup some picks for them and save one on Marleau.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Those are bad returns, but you can't just sit on all of your picks. It would be neat timeline to research where we trade Bozak, JVR and Gardiner for value instead of trading for Boyle and Plekanec. Those were same way attempts to add some experience on young roster for playoffs in same way we went for Foligno and I still say it was logical move at that time. I think it's plain stupid to judge those trades based on outcome, if it was logical before playoffs to get rental it was worth the try. One of 31 teams wins every year so 30 teams makes mostly bad moves, if you only judge those based on results. I don't see Boyle or Plekanec adds as logical moves, but those were Lous call and I think he is well liked here. I don't understand why.

Marleau is no brainer since keeping him would have meant 6mil of dead cap space in 4th line and losing more young assets than just that 1st rounder. You have estimation how much value one mid to late round 1st rounder or 2nd round pick has in draft capital? I think trading Marleau meant that we could keep Kapanen longer as a player and then we traded him as an asset for Amirov and now McCann.

Not everyone here likes Lou, far from it. I agree that many of his decisions could be criticized, I was arguing especially passionately for trading JVR for example instead of keeping him as an "own rental" so I agree he deserves criticism there and I was fine with the Marleau trade as well. Anyhow, whatever Lou did or didn't do has no bearing on how Dubas is judged. He grossly overestimated how good this team is when he traded away a good chunk of our future and that's on him, period.

 

[deprw]

Not everyone here likes Lou, far from it. I agree that many of his decisions could be criticized, I was arguing especially passionately for trading JVR for example instead of keeping him as an "own rental" so I agree he deserves criticism there and I was fine with the Marleau trade as well. Anyhow, whatever Lou did or didn't do has no bearing on how Dubas is judged. He grossly overestimated how good this team is when he traded away a good chunk of our future and that's on him, period.

Yeah, I'm not saying that these wasn't on Dubas. Just said I see logic why Dubas did those moves. Like Lou traded those 2nd rounders, he wanted to send message to the team he believes in them and thinks they can win playoffs game, series and maybe more, so he get some reinforcement. It's common practice when you're contending. This year was perfect year for acquiring those players for our core. I think this draft is pretty hard to read because whole hockey world have been in turmoil because of covid and young players haven't had proper chance to play & train.

I think whole hockey world overestimated our team and I don't know if Dubas should have that job if he didn't believe on that core. We all were pretty happy when we drafted this young guys and it's pretty rare that team dismantles it's core when most of the players are under 25. We are coming to crossroads with this core, but I think discussion here is mostly childish like we bully on Marner and then think Dubas could turn him to gold. His contract is bad but our situation is still manageable and we should build on this core once more.

All other top teams are having problems keeping their teams together in this flat cap situation and were able. Dubas would be stupid to start retool now. I'm not saying he shouldn't explore on trading core players, but I don't think its necessity or something that could help our team in short term, which should be main focus now. Though I would try keep our futures, because were in the position that we can't bleed assets much longer or were in trouble.

Dubas as GM should believe in this team. As a leader you believe in your team and stuff until there is day you don't or you don't have a chance. More logical move at this point is keeping this team together and learning from last years mistakes.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah, I'm not saying that these wasn't on Dubas. Just said I see logic why Dubas did those moves. Like Lou traded those 2nd rounders, he wanted to send message to the team he believes in them and thinks they can win playoffs game, series and maybe more, so he get some reinforcement. It's common practice when you're contending. This year was perfect year for acquiring those players for our core. I think this draft is pretty hard to read because whole hockey world have been in turmoil because of covid and young players haven't had proper chance to play & train.

I think whole hockey world overestimated our team and I don't know if Dubas should have that job if he didn't believe on that core. We all were pretty happy when we drafted this young guys and it's pretty rare that team dismantles it's core when most of the players are under 25. We are coming to crossroads with this core, but I think discussion here is mostly childish like we bully on Marner and then think Dubas could turn him to gold. His contract is bad but our situation is still manageable and we should build on this core once more.

All other top teams are having problems keeping their teams together in this flat cap situation and were able. Dubas would be stupid to start retool now. I'm not saying he shouldn't explore on trading core players, but I don't think its necessity or something that could help our team in short term, which should be main focus now. Though I would try keep our futures, because were in the position that we can't bleed assets much longer or were in trouble.

Dubas as GM should believe in this team. As a leader you believe in your team and stuff until there is day you don't or you don't have a chance. More logical move at this point is keeping this team together and learning from last years mistakes.

You say Dubas would be stupid to start retooling now, perhaps you meant to say something else because it seems like retooling is exactly what he's doing.

I would move on from Marner myself, our 1st round opponent next season will probably be tougher then CLB or MTL so I see no reason for optimism. I have trouble believing Marner will ever "turn into gold" and building on this core as you suggest ... I just don't see how that's doable without freeing up some cap space. Oh sure, we'll shuffle around some spare parts but we can't add anyone meaningful the way things are now.

edit - I like most of the moves Dubas has made, he's made one big mistake - the contracts, especially Marner's and the second big mistake will be stubbornly sticking with this core. At least IMO that would be a massive mistake, it looks like that's what it will do and there is a good chance he gets fired as a result a year from now. I just hope he doesn't trade away more futures so the new guy will be in a good position when he takes over but if Dubas is afraid for his job, trading away more futures is exactly what he's likely to do.