Whose 894 will be better?

[PrimumHockeyist]

It seems like a slam dunk that Ovi matches Gretzky's 894.

My question is if anyone things one 894 is more impressive than the other.

With all due respect to the Great One, I'm leaning in the Great 8's favour on this one.

The difference for me is the goaltending.

I dont' see any room for the usually sound argument here which says that one can't compare eras. In goaltending, I think you can and the difference seems huge.

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[Hockey Outsider]

Ovechkin is on the verge of matching Gretzky's 894 goals, in approximately the same number of games, in a scoring environment that's approximately 20% lower. Ovechkin has already surprassed Gretzky as the greater goal-scorer, and I'm not sure if it's even particularly close anymore.

It's literally true that 894 > 860-something. But if we're just comparing stats, devoid of any context, that would lead to plainly false conclusion (ie Mike Gartner > Mario Lemieux, Patrick Marleau > Mike Bossy, etc).

Can we still make a case for Gretzky > Ovechkin? I think there are three arguments, but none of them are great:

1. Specialization - Gretzky could have scored more, had he not focused so much on passing. That's probably true, but I find this too speculative. (Gretzky is by far the better playmaker, and overall offensive talent, so he already gets credit for this).
2. Playoffs - Gretzky scored quite a bit more in the playoffs. (Even on a per game basis, he's ahead 0.59 vs 0.48). But that's mostly explained by the difference in the scoring environment. Gretzky obviously maintained this on deeper playoff runs (Ovechkin only made it out of the second round once). I can accept Gretzky as being better in the postseason, but not nearly enough to make up for the regular season gap.
3. Peak - their best seasons (1982 vs 2008) are roughly even. Ovechkin, obviously, is way ahead if you're looking at, say, their 7th or 12th or 16th best seasons. Gretzky is probably ahead if you're looking at their 2nd, 3rd and 4th best years. He had a really high peak, while Ovechkin had a ridiculously long, consistent prime. If you really value peak above all else, I can see the case for Gretzky, but it's a weak one.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Ovechkin did it against better goalies, while Gretzky did it with a wooden stick and the 2 line pass. Gotta consider all kinds of context if we're going down THAT road

 

[MadLuke]

The obvious answer seem to be Ovechkin, but in a way because of the 1991 injury there is a faint argument for Gretzky.

One way to look at it, from 80 to 99, most goals:

Gretzky: 894
Gartner: 708 (0.79)
Lemieux: 613 (0.69)
Messier: 610 (0.68)
Ciccare: 608 (0.68)

2006 to today
Ovechkin: 868
Crosby..: 600 (0.69)
Stamkos.: 562 (0.65)
Malkin..: 503 (0.58)
Pavelski: 476 (0.55)

When it come to the elite specially for something like goal scoring, I am fully open that strength of competition change a bit and when you start your career as a comparable make things move and because of the lock-out year maybe Ovechkin started a particularly good year to separate himself from that pack.

But if you say Gretzky was more impressive, we need to reassess Gartner career I feel like and what about Ciccarelli, are all those name all better scorer than all Ovechkin competition by a good amount ?

The only argument about Gretzky being more impressive would be in the what if sense because of Suter injury, but in general all time totals take not being injured in their impressiveness and he already declined a bit goal scoring wise pre-injury, if he score 30-40 more goals without it, Ovechkin would still more impressive and he had to lead the league in goals like 9 times to do it.

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

1. Specialization - Gretzky could have scored more, had he not focused so much on passing. That's probably true, but I find this too speculative. (Gretzky is by far the better playmaker, and overall offensive talent, so he already gets credit for this).

I see this as a significant consideration in Gretzky's favour. It seemed like there came a point mid-career where he became more of a pass-first guy. This surely cost him dozens of goals. We'd only7 need 8 dozen to get around 1000. edit - then again. to MadLuke's point, the 1991 injury might make that very tough.

 

[Doctor Coffin]

Gotta consider all kinds of context if we're going down THAT road

Exactly that. Ovechkin is on the verge of doing it in an era of relatively touch-free defense, but against b̶e̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶g̶o̶a̶l̶i̶e̶s̶ goalies with a monumental advantage in terms of size, equipment and conditioning practices.

 

[Vilica]

1. Peak - their best seasons (1982 vs 2008) are roughly even. Ovechkin, obviously, is way ahead if you're looking at, say, their 7th or 12th or 16th best seasons. Gretzky is probably ahead if you're looking at their 2nd, 3rd and 4th best years. He had a really high peak, while Ovechkin had a ridiculously long, consistent prime. If you really value peak above all else, I can see the case for Gretzky, but it's a weak one.

I wouldn't call these rankings canon, but here's how Ovechkin/Gretzky's seasons fared when I applied Average VsX to goal totals.

Ovechkin	Year	Avg GVsX		Gretzky	Year	Avg GVsX
4	07-08	141.11		5	81-82	138.75
18	12-13	121.99		8	83-84	133.29
28	14-15	117.70		43	84-85	113.64
32	08-09	115.86		53	82-83	111.24
48	13-14	112.74		107	86-87	102.10
50	19-20	111.72		304	79-80	87.87
58	15-16	110.53		314	88-89	87.43
82	09-10	106.64		327	80-81	86.73
114	05-06	101.51		493	85-86	79.42
123	18-19	101.19		728	90-91	71.92
135	17-18	98.84		876	93-94	67.64
183	21-22	94.93		947	89-90	65.64
186	06-07	94.36		957	87-88	65.20
554	16-17	71.64		1331	91-92	53.99
634	10-11	69.16		1417	97-98	51.55
				1437	96-97	50.64
				1629	95-96	43.16
				1708	94-95	37.24

Those rankings are all-time of all seasons post 1933-34. Gretzky has 2 in the top 10 compared to Ovechkin's 1, but his 3rd-5th best seasons are lower, and he falls off a cliff after that, with 13 of Ovechkin's seasons better than Gretzky's 7th best.

[The reason I wouldn't consider these rankings canon is because I repurposed my Average VsX spreadsheet from goals to points, but never finished updating the top 20 point scorers to top 20 goal scorers. It's probably 80-90% accurate for the top end (especially for older players), because normally the top goal scorers also finish in the top 20 of points, but every Gretzky season above 728 is borderline top 20 in goals, and would get kicked out of the rankings for seasons that finished top 20. This is why Ovechkin's 11-12 season is missing, because he was 37th in points, even though he finished 5th in goals. That season would finish 370th in the rankings were it inputted.]

 

[Hobnobs]

The obvious answer seem to be Ovechkin, but in a way because of the 1991 injury there is a faint argument for Gretzky.

One way to look at it, from 80 to 99, most goals:

Gretzky: 894
Gartner: 708 (0.79)
Lemieux: 613 (0.69)
Messier: 610 (0.68)
Ciccare: 608 (0.68)

2006 to today
Ovechkin: 868
Crosby..: 600 (0.69)
Stamkos.: 562 (0.65)
Malkin..: 503 (0.58)
Pavelski: 476 (0.55)

When it come to the elite specially for something like goal scoring, I am fully open that strength of competition change a bit and when you start your career as a comparable make things move and because of the lock-out year maybe Ovechkin started a particularly good year to separate himself from that pack.

But if you say Gretzky was more impressive, we need to reassess Gartner career I feel like and what about Ciccarelli, are all those name all better scorer than all Ovechkin competition by a good amount ?

The only argument about Gretzky being more impressive would be in the what if sense because of Suter injury, but in general all time totals take not being injured in their impressiveness and he already declined a bit goal scoring wise pre-injury, if he score 30-40 more goals without it, Ovechkin would still more impressive and he had to lead the league in goals like 9 times to do it.

I question if Ciccare was even better than Fumare?

Non tutte le ciambelle riescono col buco

​

 

[The Panther]

Ovechkin's 894 (assuming he gets there) will be more impressive.

But Gretzky's 1 to 700 is more impressive.

 

[Crosby2010]

There always is that idea in the background that Gretzky was by far the better offensive talent and when a guy leads the NHL in assists 16(!) times and does it the first 13 seasons of his career and gets over 100 of them 11 times in a row and yet he still manages to outscore a guy like Mike Bossy in goals over that same timeframe, then it is definitely more impressive what Gretzky did. That's the thing, I don't think you can "out-impress" Gretzky's career in any which way. McDavid has the most assists in a playoff run with 34. That's awesome. But then Gretzky owns the next three, and then 4 out of 7 overall. No matter what, Gretzky just always "wows" you more. Scoring 50+ goals the first 8 seasons of his career and then being an even better playmaker is just otherworldly and can hardly even be believed or explained.

So if you have an argument for Gretzky as the best goal scorer of all-time that argument is that he was racking up those goals but obliterating the NHL in other areas simultaneously (points, assists). That's more impressive than Ovechkin getting a 50 goal season while getting 25 assists.

But if you simply just isolate the goals, it is hard to say Ovechkin isn't the greatest goal scorer in NHL history. If you really want to nitpick you can mention that Ovie has 50 less playoff goals than Gretzky so therefore he won't surpass the Great One if you combine their regular season and playoff goals. But let's just enjoy the passing of 894 when it happens in 2026, because the mere thought of even just one of Gretzky's records falling was never considered a while ago.

 

[MadLuke]

But Gretzky's 1 to 700 is more impressive.

that was a bit my feeling going with going for that total purely on the pre 1991 back way to look at it.

To go back with the way to look at it of what other did in that time frame, Gretzky first 700 (well 702, hat trick game) his competition looked like this:

	games	goals	ratio	gpg	ratio2
Wayne Gretzky	886	702		0.79
Jari Kurri	754	474	68%	0.63	79%
Michel Goulet	859	471	67%	0.55	69%
Mike Gartner	892	470	67%	0.53	67%
Mike Bossy	599	451	64%	0.75	95%
Rick Vaive	819	429	61%	0.52	66%
Marcel Dionne	729	404	58%	0.55	70%
Glenn Anderson	788	398	57%	0.51	64%
Peter Stastny	792	396	56%	0.50	63%
Dino Ciccarelli	714	393	56%	0.55	69%

Ovechkin first 700 goals

	games	goals	ratio	gpg	ratio
Alex Ovechkin	1144​	700​		0.61
Sidney Crosby	975​	458​	65%	0.47	77%
Eric Staal	1153​	423​	60%	0.37	60%
Steven Stamkos	802​	422​	60%	0.53	86%
Evgeni Malkin	898​	411​	59%	0.46	75%
Patrick Marleau	1156​	408​	58%	0.35	58%
Patrick Kane	964​	383​	55%	0.40	65%
Jeff Carter	1040​	382​	55%	0.37	60%
Zach Parise	1006​	382​	55%	0.38	62%
Rick Nash	906​	379​	54%	0.42	68%

Now I am really unsure, maybe Ovechkin first 700 was even better than Gretzky, he dominated his peers more, Ovechkin was 72% above the average of the rest of the top 10, Gretzky by 63%, Ovechkin won the Rocket 8 time during that stretch en route for #9 that year, Gretzky 5....

In total how he dominated, versus the others gpg, in winning the Rocket

Stastny-Bossy-Dionne-Gartner-Goulet better talent than the Crosby-Stamkos-Staal-Malkin-Kane... or a better timing to match the prime of their career, not so sure

The doing it while scoring 120 assists is maybe the only argument, and that not a bad one.

PS: If I ever read somewhere that Gartner was a compiler and did not had a repulsive reflex about it, now I feel really silly.

 

[Boxscore]

As much as I want to give the edge to sentiment here and say, Gretz, I believe Ovechkin's feat is more impressive. Sure, 99 used a wooden Titan heavier than a Chevy but he torched some awful goalies in the Smythe when pads were a lot smaller and goalies were letting in goals that looked like beer league games today. Of course... Gretzky is still Gretzky... but Ovie has been consistently dominant in his approach to gobbling goals.

I will say this though... Gretz owns the two most impressive goal-scoring high marks with his 50 in 39 and 92g season. Those were simply magical and exceeded any isolated goal feat that Ovechkin owns.

Tbh, I know he's the Great 8, but I still can't wrap my head around someone scoring more goals than Wayne F-ing Gretzky!

 

[The Panther]

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I've never really thought of the "most goals" record as a "Gretzky record". I mean, it is technically of course, but the career-goals thing has never struck me as a Gretzky-ian achievement the way points / season, goals / season, assists in everything, etc. is.

Honestly, until Ovechkin recently, I've always thought of the Gordie Howe as the biggest goal scorer ever by volume. I don't think Gretzky surpassed him in career goals, when all factors are considered.

The thing with the career-goals record is, once you're talking about the top seven or eight guys ever, it's really just a matter of circumstances / health, etc. It's kind of arbitrary. Gretzky had the youthful peaks to get the head-start, and then he had a very long, somewhat healthy career. If Maurice Richard had played in 80+ game seasons, maybe he hits 700+, though would have been surpassed by Howe. But if Howe had not left the NHL in 1971 (and played, say, for an expansion team for a few years) -- or if his heyday had had 80+ game seasons -- he'd have retired with 925+ goals. Same with Bobby Hull if he'd stayed in the NHL. Same with Bossy and Mario if healthy.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I will say this though... Gretz owns the two most impressive goal-scoring high marks with his 50 in 39 and 92g season. Those were simply magical and exceeded any isolated goal feat that Ovechkin owns.

Accounting for scoring environment, Ovechkin's 65 goal season adjusts higher than Gretzky's best season:

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)

www.hockey-reference.com

50 goals in 39 games in the '81-82 season (which had a 4.01 GPG per team avg.) is about like scoring 34 goals in 39 games in 2013 (2.72 GPG avg.) - which, incidentally, Ovechkin exceeded (43 goals in 45 games):

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[filinski77]

Ovechkin.

	Ovi	Gretzky
Raw Goals	894	894
Adjusted Goals *	995	758
Games Played *	1,508	1,487
Raw G/GP *	0.59​	0.60​
Adjusted G/GP *	0.66​	0.51​
50 goal seasons	9	9
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5
Rocket wins	9	5
Top-5 finishes	14 (15?)	9
Top-10 finishes	15 (16?)	10

* = estimate

 

[MadLuke]

50 goals in 39 games in the '81-82 season (which had a 4.01 GPG per team avg.) is about like scoring 34 goals in 39 games in 2013 (2.72 GPG avg.) - which, incidentally, Ovechkin exceeded (43 goals in 45 games):

Scoring distribution can change quite a bit and doing it from first game of the year vs best career stretch would be both a bit different.

Gretzky once scored 66 goals in 50 games if we look at his peak stretch around that time, only Bobby Hull outscored elite competition by more I think among the 50 in 50 players

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/gamelogs-projects-best-games-streak.2855646/

Gretzky once score 39 goals in a 25 games stretch, he could have a 50 in less than 39 I am not sure but easy to imagine.

During that 43 goals stretch in 45 games, Toews ans Steen scored 24 and 23, he outscored them by 79% and 87%

During that (just quickly picked around that time) 45 games stretch of Gretzky in which he score 59:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Ciccarelli-Maruk scored 34-32, outscore them by 73.5% and 84%..

It could be closer than the HR adjusted gap would indicate