Whose 894 will be better?

PrimumHockeyist

Registered User
Apr 7, 2018
633
399
hockey-stars.ca
It seems like a slam dunk that Ovi matches Gretzky's 894.

My question is if anyone things one 894 is more impressive than the other.

With all due respect to the Great One, I'm leaning in the Great 8's favour on this one.

The difference for me is the goaltending.

I dont' see any room for the usually sound argument here which says that one can't compare eras. In goaltending, I think you can and the difference seems huge.
 

Hockey Outsider

Registered User
Jan 16, 2005
9,508
15,850
Ovechkin is on the verge of matching Gretzky's 894 goals, in approximately the same number of games, in a scoring environment that's approximately 20% lower. Ovechkin has already surprassed Gretzky as the greater goal-scorer, and I'm not sure if it's even particularly close anymore.

It's literally true that 894 > 860-something. But if we're just comparing stats, devoid of any context, that would lead to plainly false conclusion (ie Mike Gartner > Mario Lemieux, Patrick Marleau > Mike Bossy, etc).

Can we still make a case for Gretzky > Ovechkin? I think there are three arguments, but none of them are great:
  1. Specialization - Gretzky could have scored more, had he not focused so much on passing. That's probably true, but I find this too speculative. (Gretzky is by far the better playmaker, and overall offensive talent, so he already gets credit for this).
  2. Playoffs - Gretzky scored quite a bit more in the playoffs. (Even on a per game basis, he's ahead 0.59 vs 0.48). But that's mostly explained by the difference in the scoring environment. Gretzky obviously maintained this on deeper playoff runs (Ovechkin only made it out of the second round once). I can accept Gretzky as being better in the postseason, but not nearly enough to make up for the regular season gap.
  3. Peak - their best seasons (1982 vs 2008) are roughly even. Ovechkin, obviously, is way ahead if you're looking at, say, their 7th or 12th or 16th best seasons. Gretzky is probably ahead if you're looking at their 2nd, 3rd and 4th best years. He had a really high peak, while Ovechkin had a ridiculously long, consistent prime. If you really value peak above all else, I can see the case for Gretzky, but it's a weak one.
 

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