There's way too much smoke around Treliving for it not to be him at this point. Apparently Tanenbaum and Treliving's dad go way back. I've also seen Mirtle and others mention that they've heard Treliving's name connected to this job as early as March (he specifically said on his podcast that he received a text from a source on March 10th that Treliving will be the Leafs next GM).
Coincidentally, March 10th was after the trade deadline, when Shanahan claims he told Dubas he had seen enough that he thought at that time Dubas should remain GM. My guess is something happened in March, and that was when Shanahan actually started to consider new GM possibilities (contrary to what was said in his presser).
Anyone else think it's weird too how Treliving walked away from the Flames GM job a month after his name started coming up in rumours in Toronto? At this point there's so much smoke around Treliving that I would be shocked if it wasn't him.
All that being said, I voted Tulsky. I think he would be the best choice by far.