Speculation: Who is the worst shape going into the expansion draft?

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The way the draft is set up there will be some solid players lost but who will get hit the hardest? who will lose the best player? I suspect Murray will be a popular answers but I think the pens will trade MAF before they allow vegas to take Murray.

TB is another one that could lose an important piece

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[Duck Off]

Currently, I'd say Tampa and Anaheim.

I think Anaheim will make two things happen before the expansion draft. Bieksa will asked to be waived, and if he won't, he'll be bought out. No way do they waste a spot on him.

They'll trade one of Fowler, Manson, or Vatanen before the expansion draft for a scoring forward.

They'll protect:

7 forwards:
Getzlaf
Perry
Kesler
Rakell
Silfverberg
Acquired player
Cogliano

3 defenseman:
Lindholm
2 of Vatanen/Fowler/Manson

Goalie: Gibson

exposed: Vermette, Boll, Stoner, and Bieksa (if he waives)

 

[Its a Trap]

I think Big Buff will be in the worst shape going into the expansion draft.

 

[Maukkis]

Pittsburgh: obvious reasons. If the goaltending issue can be solved, they will lose a good forward or Pouliot anyway, so there's literally no way of winning for them.

Chicago: Another hit to their already thin depth. It's the logical choice, and the right one as well, but that depth is much needed. They lose exactly what they need, and of course it's a bad situation.

Anaheim: Bieksa's buyout isn't even enough to save them from losing something good or something cost effective. And as Bieksa isn't waiving, that buyout will hinder their squad one way or another.

Colorado: You don't want to make the ROR trade and the LHD depth look bad by losing Zadorov, but you also don't want to give up one of your few capable forwards in Söderberg/Grigorenko. Or, if they so choose, lose a very good goalie, which I don't believe is going to happen. They have a big player to lose in all three positions.

NYI: Five defensemen to protect, with all kinds of problems at forward. Losing Strome or Nelson will sting, unless one of the defensemen (CDH?) is sacrificed at some point before the expansion.

I don't think Tampa is in trouble. Bishop is walking regardless, and Killorn's long term deal makes him an attractive option for Vegas, so he will be the one who's sacrificed. Then it's just about making the cap work for other RFAs. Minnesota is probably accepting the blow and giving up one of Scandella and Brodin. Deep teams are meant to lose players, because they can take the loss, and that's what's going to happen in Minnesota.

 

[Mike Jones]

Pittsburgh: obvious reasons. If the goaltending issue can be solved, they will lose a good forward or Pouliot anyway, so there's literally no way of winning for them.

Chicago: Another hit to their already thin depth. It's the logical choice, and the right one as well, but that depth is much needed. They lose exactly what they need, and of course it's a bad situation.

Anaheim: Bieksa's buyout isn't even enough to save them from losing something good or something cost effective. And as Bieksa isn't waiving, that buyout will hinder their squad one way or another.

Colorado: You don't want to make the ROR trade and the LHD depth look bad by losing Zadorov, but you also don't want to give up one of your few capable forwards in Söderberg/Grigorenko. Or, if they so choose, lose a very good goalie, which I don't believe is going to happen. They have a big player to lose in all three positions.

I can't see why these problems are seen as being so big. All the existing teams have to do is send a draft pick Vegas' way so that the new team will pick a player from lower on the food chain. The higher the pick the further down a team's list Vegas goes.

Problem solved.

 

[TorstenFrings]

It's designed so that teams will have to lose someone good. If there are teams that have no qualms about the expansion draft AND that weren't sucking ass the last couple years (so that they have a lot of exempt recent high picks), then those are the ones in really bad shape.

But, yeah, Pittsburgh and Anaheim are facing some tough choices.

 

[Maukkis]

I can't see why these problems are seen as being so big. All the existing teams have to do is send a draft pick Vegas' way so that the new team will pick a player from lower on the food chain.

Problem solved.

And you see this happening easily? Good luck.

 

[tony d]

Pittsburgh. Got to think either Fleury or Murray will have to be exposed in the expansion draft.

 

[Mike Jones]

And you see this happening easily? Good luck.

Simple solutions aren't always easy. To me the solution to a team's problem is simple: If a team doesn't want to lose certain players then they pay up.

The hard work will come when Vegas names their price and the negotiating proceeds.

I can't see why Vegas wouldn't want to run in to the next 3-4 drafts with up to 30 extra picks.

 

[Mr Misty]

Minnesota is going to lose a good defenseman, probably the best one on the Vegas roster.

 

[voxel]

Simple solutions aren't always easy. To me the solution to a team's problem is simple: If a team doesn't want to lose certain players then they pay up.

The hard work will come when Vegas names their price and the negotiating proceeds.

I can't see why Vegas wouldn't want to run in to the next 3-4 drafts with up to 30 extra picks.

The payment will be steep IMO. Vegas needs top-6 forwards and top-4 D... a second to take a lesser player won't be enticing. I bet teams will need to send 1sts over to stop Vegas from taking an exposed player.

 

[Superlative Soup]

"Who is in the worst shape..."

Canucks are the answer no matter how the sentence finishes.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Pittsburgh: obvious reasons. If the goaltending issue can be solved, they will lose a good forward or Pouliot anyway, so there's literally no way of winning for them.

Chicago: Another hit to their already thin depth. It's the logical choice, and the right one as well, but that depth is much needed. They lose exactly what they need, and of course it's a bad situation.

Anaheim: Bieksa's buyout isn't even enough to save them from losing something good or something cost effective. And as Bieksa isn't waiving, that buyout will hinder their squad one way or another.

Colorado: You don't want to make the ROR trade and the LHD depth look bad by losing Zadorov, but you also don't want to give up one of your few capable forwards in Söderberg/Grigorenko. Or, if they so choose, lose a very good goalie, which I don't believe is going to happen. They have a big player to lose in all three positions.

NYI: Five defensemen to protect, with all kinds of problems at forward. Losing Strome or Nelson will sting, unless one of the defensemen (CDH?) is sacrificed at some point before the expansion.

I don't think Tampa is in trouble. Bishop is walking regardless, and Killorn's long term deal makes him an attractive option for Vegas, so he will be the one who's sacrificed. Then it's just about making the cap work for other RFAs. Minnesota is probably accepting the blow and giving up one of Scandella and Brodin. Deep teams are meant to lose players, because they can take the loss, and that's what's going to happen in Minnesota.

Zadorov is probably the #1D to be protected from the Avs. He's been our best Defender this year and is quickly making the transition towards being a really good Top 4 Dman for us.



I dont think the Avs would be particularly upset if we lost Varlamov in the expansion draft. He's been pretty average the last 2 years and even below average at this point in this season. Pickard will be the one protected and if LV takes Varlamov we're freed of another 5.9M in cap space putting us at almost 20M in cap space for next summer.


We most likely ask Beauchemin to waive his NTC, if he agrees to waive it we'll protect:


Landy
Duchene
Mackinnon
Soderberg
Grigorenko
Colborne
Comeau/Martinsen


Zadorov
EJ
Barrie

Pickard



And if he doesn't waive his NTC, we'll just protect:


Landy
Mackinnon
Duchene
Grigorenko/Colborne


Zads
EJ
Barrie
Beauch

Pickard



I dont think the Avs will be particularly upset with whoever they lose. As it's likely a player making a bit too much salary right now anyway and the added cap space is never a bad thing.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Isn't Columbus like really screwed?

 

[Ola]

The way the draft is set up there will be some solid players lost but who will get hit the hardest? who will lose the best player? I suspect Murray will be a popular answers but I think the pens will trade MAF before they allow vegas to take Murray.

TB is another one that could lose an important piece

I think this is very hard to tell, before we know which players with NMCs that will waive their protection.

Take NYR for example, we could be in a tough situation. But if Dan Girardi waives his NMC, thinks looks much better. And I am fairly certain that he will do that. Like, LV would never pick him anyway.

And I am sure many teams are in that situation too.

 

[Maukkis]

The payment will be steep IMO. Vegas needs top-6 forwards and top-4 D... a second to take a lesser player won't be enticing. I bet teams will need to send 1sts over to stop Vegas from taking an exposed player.

This. Vegas has a very limited supply of players to carry them for their first couple of years. Especially those who have good forwards available are very, very likely to lose them, as a team can technically protect at least its whole first line in any case (3-5-1, 4-4-1, 7-3-1). That's why guys like Killorn, Söderberg, Hagelin etc. are very valuable for Vegas.

Most don't understand that when you're investing 500 million dollars to a team, you simply have to get something to work with immediately. They need success to grow a fanbase and keep the team "alive" in a way. No one in the Vegas area will care about the vast amount of draft picks the team has, if the team isn't performing.

The drafting process was changed in a way which allows Vegas to actually be a good team from the get-go. The league would not allow LV to be as bad as the teams after the latest expansion were. If Vegas wants to use that as an advantage, they are entitled to do so. Whether or not it's a) happening, or b) worth it, that's another story.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

If it comes down to it, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Avs buyout Beauchemin's contract to give them a few more options,.

 

[Ararana]

Zadorov is probably the #1D to be protected from the Avs. He's been our best Defender this year and is quickly making the transition towards being a really good Top 4 Dman for us.



I dont think the Avs would be particularly upset if we lost Varlamov in the expansion draft. He's been pretty average the last 2 years and even below average at this point in this season. Pickard will be the one protected and if LV takes Varlamov we're freed of another 5.9M in cap space putting us at almost 20M in cap space for next summer.


We most likely ask Beauchemin to waive his NTC, if he agrees to waive it we'll protect:


Landy
Duchene
Mackinnon
Soderberg
Grigorenko
Colborne
Comeau/Martinsen


Zadorov
EJ
Barrie

Pickard



And if he doesn't waive his NTC, we'll just protect:


Landy
Mackinnon
Duchene
Grigorenko/Colborne


Zads
EJ
Barrie
Beauch

Pickard



I dont think the Avs will be particularly upset with whoever they lose. As it's likely a player making a bit too much salary right now anyway and the added cap space is never a bad thing.

Agreed. But if Beauch doesn't agree to waive, I'd like to see them just buy him out so we can follow the 8-3-1 pattern. With all the cap space they'll have next year and the UFA market being meh, it might not be the worse way to go.

With most of the forwards (the ones worth a damn) protected, LV would be forced to take a depth defenseman or a dangling Varlamov who, if he maintains his level of play, I wonder if LV would even touch him at 5.9 million. Especially given the other goaltenders they'll have available to them.

 

[The Great Dame]

Isn't Columbus like really screwed?

I'd say so.

They'll lose one of Karlsson, Calvert, Savard or Johnson.

And this is a decent scenario wherein I assumed one of their NMCs is waived (Clarkson).

 

[Goose312]

Minnesota is going to lose a good defenseman, probably the best one on the Vegas roster.

While they will be giving up one of, possibly the best defender in the draft, they are left with a great top 4 and solid depth, so probably not the team in the worst spot for the draft.

 

[Mike Jones]

The payment will be steep IMO. Vegas needs top-6 forwards and top-4 D... a second to take a lesser player won't be enticing. I bet teams will need to send 1sts over to stop Vegas from taking an exposed player.

A lot will depend on who's available and what kinds of compromises existing teams are willing to make.

With teams allowed to protect 7 forwards or 8 skaters Vegas will be lucky to get even a few top six forwards so they may as well talk trade and see what they can do that way.

 

[Mr Misty]

While they will be giving up one of, possibly the best defender in the draft, they are left with a great top 4 and solid depth, so probably not the team in the worst spot for the draft.

I'm inclined to agree, but that doesn't change the fact that the Wild will be exposing the most valuable player barring some major surprise.

 

[mondo3]

I think it would be easier to tell which team is in worse shape if everyone listed the likeliest unprotected players at the current time (without speculating that player xyz will be traded or change their NMC).

Jets:
If they protect 3 D, then I'd guess Myers is by far the best player left unprotected.
If they protect 4 D, then I'd guess Armia, Dano, and Lowry are the best available players.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Agreed. But if Beauch doesn't agree to waive, I'd like to see them just buy him out so we can follow the 8-3-1 pattern. With all the cap space they'll have next year and the UFA market being meh, it might not be the worse way to go.

With most of the forwards (the ones worth a damn) protected, LV would be forced to take a depth defenseman or a dangling Varlamov who, if he maintains his level of play, I wonder if LV would even touch him at 5.9 million. Especially given the other goaltenders they'll have available to them.

I dunno, I dont really think it would be a bad thing if Soderberg were to be claimed by LV.


We've got some young talent likely coming up to replace him next season(All 3 of Jost, Compher, and Greer realistically could be NHL ready next season), and that cap space could be put towards a big boost somewhere else in the lineup.



By buying out Beauch, we'd still be on the hook for his full cap hit in the following season, similar to how we're on the hook for Stuart's cap right now.



I think we'd be better off(If Beauch doesn't waive, maybe even regardless) just protecting 4 Dmen and keeping our Top 4 in tact for next season, while letting the prospects replace any potential losses to our forward group.

 

[leburn98]

The ones that are screwed are the teams who gave out NMC like candy. Tampa with a player like Ryan Callahan auto protected due to a NMC may mean that the Lightning will be forced to give up a player like Killorn.

What I am wondering is if, hypothetically speaking, a team had 12 NMC on their roster would all 12 players be protected?