Speculation: Who is the worst shape going into the expansion draft?

[Ararana]

I dunno, I dont really think it would be a bad thing if Soderberg were to be claimed by LV.


We've got some young talent likely coming up to replace him next season(All 3 of Jost, Compher, and Greer realistically could be NHL ready next season), and that cap space could be put towards a big boost somewhere else in the lineup.



By buying out Beauch, we'd still be on the hook for his full cap hit in the following season, similar to how we're on the hook for Stuart's cap right now.



I think we'd be better off(If Beauch doesn't waive, maybe even regardless) just protecting 4 Dmen and keeping our Top 4 in tact for next season, while letting the prospects replace any potential losses to our forward group.

I could get behind either really. You're right that Soderberg could reasonably be replaced by the kids next year and Sods might be enough of a temptation to keep LV away from Varly's price tag. I'd really like to keep the Varly-Pickard combo for a while.

 

[Mike Jones]

The league would not allow LV to be as bad as the teams after the latest expansion were.

Once the league approves the rules there is precious little they can do to prevent Vegas from doing things that are within those parameters. I can't imagine Nanny Bettman punishing a team for managing their affairs within agreed upon limits.

 

[Ivan13]

Pittsburgh: obvious reasons. If the goaltending issue can be solved, they will lose a good forward or Pouliot anyway, so there's literally no way of winning for them.

Chicago: Another hit to their already thin depth. It's the logical choice, and the right one as well, but that depth is much needed. They lose exactly what they need, and of course it's a bad situation.

Anaheim: Bieksa's buyout isn't even enough to save them from losing something good or something cost effective. And as Bieksa isn't waiving, that buyout will hinder their squad one way or another.

Colorado: You don't want to make the ROR trade and the LHD depth look bad by losing Zadorov, but you also don't want to give up one of your few capable forwards in Söderberg/Grigorenko. Or, if they so choose, lose a very good goalie, which I don't believe is going to happen. They have a big player to lose in all three positions.

NYI: Five defensemen to protect, with all kinds of problems at forward. Losing Strome or Nelson will sting, unless one of the defensemen (CDH?) is sacrificed at some point before the expansion.

I don't think Tampa is in trouble. Bishop is walking regardless, and Killorn's long term deal makes him an attractive option for Vegas, so he will be the one who's sacrificed. Then it's just about making the cap work for other RFAs. Minnesota is probably accepting the blow and giving up one of Scandella and Brodin. Deep teams are meant to lose players, because they can take the loss, and that's what's going to happen in Minnesota.

They are going to keep Zadorov and that's an easy decision. Only forwards worth protecting are Nate, Matt and Gabe. Teams will lose far better players than Grigorenko in the expansion draft. If they can trade Varlamov they will, if not and if he keeps his uneven play LV won't take him given his contract, nor is he going to be a big loss if they do take him.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Expansion draft is a huge blessing in disguise for the Pens, as it should logically force them to move MAF, which I don't think they would have done on their own.

This gives the org a better, more cerebral starter in net that isn't flakey, while saving the org a few million under the cap once a backup is signed.

If the Pens run with Murray and Jarry next season, that will cost them about 1.3 million less than what MAF alone would be agt the cap.

 

[Aceboogie]

I actually dont mind the expansion draft for Oilers. Its shaping up that well likely lose Pouliot if LV wants a vet winger. So Oilers lose a 2nd/3rd line winger at a 4 mil cap hit. I mean id rather keep BP but hes probably one of most unnoticeable losses out there.

Oilers could lose Brandon Davidson who was very good last year. But hes out for a while this year and really unproven so I doubt LV takes him over the other D available

Every team gets a bit worse due to the draft but Oilers get less worse

 

[57special]

The Wild. One of Brodin, Spurgeon, Scandella, or Dumba will be lost, unless they decide to protect 8, in which case Nino or Coyle are at risk. Buyouts of Koivu or Pominville would change the situation as would asking them to waive their NMC for expansion draft purposes only.

 

[MXD]

Phil Kessel.

 

[Wayward Son]

The Wild. One of Brodin, Spurgeon, Scandella, or Dumba will be lost, unless they decide to protect 8, in which case Nino or Coyle are at risk. Buyouts of Koivu or Pominville would change the situation as would asking them to waive their NMC for expansion draft purposes only.

I just don't know why they would waive looking at it from their perspective but I guess anything is possible.

 

[Maukkis]

Once the league approves the rules there is precious little they can do to prevent Vegas from doing things that are within those parameters. I can't imagine Nanny Bettman punishing a team for managing their affairs within agreed upon limits.

Jesus Christ...

Dude.

Read THE NEXT SENTENCE after the one you quoted.

The league would not allow LV to be as bad as the teams after the latest expansion were. If Vegas wants to use that as an advantage, they are entitled to do so.

Thank you.

 

[Mike Jones]

Jesus Christ...

Dude.

Read THE NEXT SENTENCE after the one you quoted.



Thank you.

I did. And you're welcome.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Chicago: Another hit to their already thin depth. It's the logical choice, and the right one as well, but that depth is much needed. They lose exactly what they need, and of course it's a bad situation.

Chicago won't lose anybody that matters. Maybe Kruger, but that might actually help them in the long run.

 

[westc2]

I think it would be easier to tell which team is in worse shape if everyone listed the likeliest unprotected players at the current time (without speculating that player xyz will be traded or change their NMC).

Jets:
If they protect 3 D, then I'd guess Myers is by far the best player left unprotected.
If they protect 4 D, then I'd guess Armia, Dano, and Lowry are the best available players.

Or just use the Buffuglien loophole and temporarily list certain players as Forwards or Defensemen as needed. There's nothing that says a player has to be a certain position. Centers and wingers swap all the time, so why not forward and defense?

 

[Mr Misty]

Or just use the Buffuglien loophole and temporarily list certain players as Forwards or Defensemen as needed. There's nothing that says a player has to be a certain position. Centers and wingers swap all the time, so why not forward and defense?

The NHL won't stand for this and in addition to expansion player loss they would slap the offender with some kind of money and draft choice sanction.

 

[bogostick]

Or just use the Buffuglien loophole and temporarily list certain players as Forwards or Defensemen as needed. There's nothing that says a player has to be a certain position. Centers and wingers swap all the time, so why not forward and defense?

Apparently we can't for some reason. I guess he'd have to play the whole year as a forward which wouldn't jive

 

[Maukkis]

Chicago won't lose anybody that matters. Maybe Kruger, but that might actually help them in the long run.

Well, they won't lose anyone big, but think of it this way: for a team with no depth already, losing yet another depth piece for nothing (and it's obviously the best exposed one), they'll be even weaker next year. With almost no cap space, they might have to give up a guy like Panik to Vegas. Is that bad in a vacuum? Not really. Is that bad for a team with no depth? Certainly.

 

[Djp]

each team will lose at least 1 player in the draft, maybe more if they make selection tades where they give Vegas prospects/picks if they take a limited list.

Teams will trade exposed players like a Fowler or one of MIN Dmen before losing them. TB will trade a forward of theirs before losing them.

You will see player movement just prior to the expansion draft.

Buffalo will be in decent shape since many of their young players are exempt

As of now--locks for protection:

F: ROR, Okposo, Larsson
D; Ristolainen, McCabe
G: Lehner

who they need to decide on:

F: Kane, Foligno, Girgensons, Carrier
D: Bogosian, Kulikov (if resigned)
G: none

who will be exposed:

F: Moulson, Ennis, Deslauriers

---Moulson or ennis would have to put up something like 30+ goal season for them to be protected. Buffalo has a big incentive to expose them and have one of them picked because it will open up cap space for 18/19 when they will have Reinhsrt, Eichel, and others to resign. They will likely offer Vegas an incentive of picks and prospects to take one of them in the draft.

D: Gorges
G: Ullmark

UFAS this offseason:

F: Gionta
D: Kulikov (If not resigned), Franson
G: Nilsson

 

[Spazkat]

I'd say so.

They'll lose one of Karlsson, Calvert, Savard or Johnson.

And this is a decent scenario wherein I assumed one of their NMCs is waived (Clarkson).

I don't think'll mind all that much if all they lose to expansion is Jack Johnson

The ones that are screwed are the teams who gave out NMC like candy. Tampa with a player like Ryan Callahan auto protected due to a NMC may mean that the Lightning will be forced to give up a player like Killorn.

What I am wondering is if, hypothetically speaking, a team had 12 NMC on their roster would all 12 players be protected?

What I've seen so far indicated there would be serious penalties for a team unable to meet the exposure requirements. I haven't seen any specific mention of what those might be, but I imagine it would either be confiscated draft picks or being forced to expose some of the ELC players that would otherwise have been exempt.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I just don't know why they would waive looking at it from their perspective but I guess anything is possible.

Koivu isn't going to waive, nor would I ask him to if I was in charge.

Pominville, however, should get the 'waive or be bought out' option. Chances should be pretty good that Vegas isn't going to take a 33/34 year old RW that makes $5.6M and scores 15 goals. If he refuses, his buyout has 1 bad year of $4M dead money, but the next 3 are manageable and his replacement on an ELC would add up to the same amount he'd be making if he was on the roster for that first year.

That would open up 8 skater protection, being able to protect 4 defensemen and Nino + Coyle.

So it's possible; just depends if management chooses to go that way.

 

[Maukkis]

What I've seen so far indicated there would be serious penalties for a team unable to meet the exposure requirements. I haven't seen any specific mention of what those might be, but I imagine it would either be confiscated draft picks or being forced to expose some of the ELC players that would otherwise have been exempt.

Forfeiting picks and fines are probably what they're going with. At the time of announcing the rules, every team was compliant, so if someone isn't compliant next June (i.e. too many NMCs), it's completely their own fault.

 

[krt88]

Currently, I'd say Tampa and Anaheim.

I think Anaheim will make two things happen before the expansion draft. Bieksa will asked to be waived, and if he won't, he'll be bought out. No way do they waste a spot on him.

They'll trade one of Fowler, Manson, or Vatanen before the expansion draft for a scoring forward.

They'll protect:

7 forwards:
Getzlaf
Perry
Kesler
Rakell
Silfverberg
Acquired player
Cogliano

3 defenseman:
Lindholm
2 of Vatanen/Fowler/Manson

Goalie: Gibson

exposed: Vermette, Boll, Stoner, and Bieksa (if he waives)

They will lose a decent player but they have so much depth, it won't matter much. Plus they could make a deal with Las Vegas if necessary.

 

[57special]

I just don't know why they would waive looking at it from their perspective but I guess anything is possible.

- Pominville is highly unlikely to be picked by LV, so he could do it as a favor to management , who has treated him well, AND he could get an assurance that he would not be bought out for the duration of his contract, nor traded anywhere else w/o his agreement.

- Koivu is more likely to be picked, but would still be an unwise choice, due to his age, tread on the tire, and his probably reluctance to resign with LV. I don't think the Wild will buy him out. By agreeing to expose himself (that sounds bad), he would keep the Wild stronger, which would be in his interest as Captain and longest tenured player.

 

[57special]

Koivu isn't going to waive, nor would I ask him to if I was in charge.

Pominville, however, should get the 'waive or be bought out' option. Chances should be pretty good that Vegas isn't going to take a 33/34 year old RW that makes $5.6M and scores 15 goals. If he refuses, his buyout has 1 bad year of $4M dead money, but the next 3 are manageable and his replacement on an ELC would add up to the same amount he'd be making if he was on the roster for that first year.

That would open up 8 skater protection, being able to protect 4 defensemen and Nino + Coyle.

So it's possible; just depends if management chooses to go that way.

Beat me to it.

Keeping 4D option would make it almost a certainty that the Wild trade a Dman during the course of the season, or at least before the draft.

 

[Captain Controversy]

I think it is safe to say we will be seeing a big trade market at the deadline and prior to the expansion draft. Players for Picks and for players that do not need protecting.

 

[WhatWhat]

Or just use the Buffuglien loophole and temporarily list certain players as Forwards or Defensemen as needed. There's nothing that says a player has to be a certain position. Centers and wingers swap all the time, so why not forward and defense?

Because the league would not allow it. They will likely lay down a rule that your position will tbat where you played the most games at over the last year or something along those lines

 

[topshelf15]

Every team will get stung a bit ,the league has learned its lesson .Plopping a team in a non tradional market .And them finishing dead last for a decade likely leads to failure .So iam good with this ,i only wish they would have done the same with my team when they came in