Speculation: Who gets bought out?

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Even with the 2/3rd formula, the Dubois buyout is still really rough because of his signing bonuses. They would almost be better off trading him with retention, or taking back another bad contract.

A Josh Norris buyout in Ottawa might be tempting if he is healthy. He doesn't have any signing bonuses, and his contract was back loaded so Ottawa gets additional cap credits beyond the U26 2/3rds cap relief. There is almost no dead cap in the first four years because of this, so it really works out to being approx. 7 years at 1.5M and 1 year at 2.3M that don't start until 2028 when the cap will be 100M+.

The thing is that Norris is not healthy, so he won't qualify for a buyout unless he is cleared to play. There were also rumours that teams were calling about Norris at the TDL, but we don't know the context. We don't know if it was teams who wanted to give up legitimate value for Norris, or if it was take out bad contract and send us Norris.

 

[Amadeus]

Joonas Korpisalo?

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Travis Hamonic is pretty much a lock.

Wouldn't it be cheaper with both money and cap space to just make him the #7 (or #8) press box D? Because if you waive him and bury him or buy him out, you have to pay a defenseman to replace him on the 23 man roster. Take the money that Hamonic costs and add league minimum salary, and it seems cheaper to just keep Hamonic as the press box guy. Is he no longer an NHL-level player? Literally one of the worst players in the league? If he's not, I can't wrap my head around buying him out.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

He actually didn’t play badly though. In fact, there’s a good chance they can still trade him, but because of the logistics of trying to flip Maatta, Holl and Walman, maybe the buyout becomes easier. We’ll see how it all plays out but expect Maatta to be moved first, then at least one of the other two, but likely both. They’ll want their deals done to bring in someone else first though. That’s why it maybe easier just to buy him out.

Anaheim Ducks fans have expressed interest in acquiring Holl if Detroit max retains on his contract. That would IMO be preferable to a buyout, and you might even get a 6th or 7th rounder from Anaheim possibly as well. Not sure how Detroit is going to approach their D, but trading Maatta and/or Holl (50% retained) makes more sense to me than buying somebody out.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Problem is...whether or not you can even find a "buyer" for Schmidt at ~$3M. That's still a pretty solid chunk of change for what is basically a filler bottom-pairing Defenceman at this point. Complicated further by having some trade protection still...if he doesn't want to go to wherever will take him. Though i'd imagine if it's that or sacrifice a third of his remaining salary next year...he'd probably be pliable in convincing him to waive for wherever. Just not sure what the market would be for him even at $3M.

If they can find a taker, it's a better option though.

Another option is the Jets targeting and trading for a top 4 D (probably RD?) or RD Winnipeg thinks can become a 2nd pairing guy, and sending Schmidt max retained back in that trade (along with picks or prospects or whatever the other team is asking for). Some players that may or may not work in a scenario like that... Jokiharju (BUF), Savard (MTL), Chychrun (OTT), Liljegren (TOR), Boqvist (CBJ), Jensen (WAS), Murphy (CHI), Fabbro (NAS), Rutta (SJS), Hronek (VAN), Whitecloud (VGK)

 

[Ouroboros]

Wouldn't it be cheaper with both money and cap space to just make him the #7 (or #8) press box D? Because if you waive him and bury him or buy him out, you have to pay a defenseman to replace him on the 23 man roster. Take the money that Hamonic costs and add league minimum salary, and it seems cheaper to just keep Hamonic as the press box guy. Is he no longer an NHL-level player? Literally one of the worst players in the league? If he's not, I can't wrap my head around buying him out.

The Senators don't have the option of waiving and burying Hamonic because he has a full NMC, so if he's not bought out they have no choice but to carry him.

He is awful. Arguably the worst defenseman in the league and completely unplayable at this juncture. There's just no upside to keeping him, the roster spot and the ~800k opened up by a buyout are needed to facilitate a turnover on Ottawa's defense.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Reaves

I doubt it VERY much

 

[biturbo19]

Another option is the Jets targeting and trading for a top 4 D (probably RD?) or RD Winnipeg thinks can become a 2nd pairing guy, and sending Schmidt max retained back in that trade (along with picks or prospects or whatever the other team is asking for). Some players that may or may not work in a scenario like that... Jokiharju (BUF), Savard (MTL), Chychrun (OTT), Liljegren (TOR), Boqvist (CBJ), Jensen (WAS), Murphy (CHI), Fabbro (NAS), Rutta (SJS), Hronek (VAN), Whitecloud (VGK)

I don't really see the reasoning for most of these other teams in these situations. Like...they're going to take on a worse and just as expensive or more expensive 3rd pairing defenceman for their better RHD because why? Even if there's a lot of incentive attached...WPG would have to be massively overpaying for these guys to make any sense. And even then...a lot of cases, ditching salary would be the priority if they're making that move. Or opening up more cap flexibility to pivot in a different direction trying to upgrade on these guys. Not taking on a worse $3M LH defenceman in Schmidt.

 

[biturbo19]

The Senators don't have the option of waiving and burying Hamonic because he has a full NMC, so if he's not bought out they have no choice but to carry him.

He is awful. Arguably the worst defenseman in the league and completely unplayable at this juncture. There's just no upside to keeping him, the roster spot and the ~800k opened up by a buyout are needed to facilitate a turnover on Ottawa's defense.

The fact that Hamonic somehow got that full NMC is such an insane little tidbit. Like a NTC? Sure...he's an aging vet kind of picking his "retirement spot". But to leverage a full NMC is like...there was obviously some genuine concern that he might legitimately end up waived and sent to the minors...? That should be somewhat of a red flag, no? But anyway...

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Barclay Goodrow?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Does the extra cap increase for this coming season and the following seasons, reduce the buyouts this summer?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The buyout window this year opens up 48 hours after the cup is awarded, so not this Saturday upcoming.

If I'm reading the schedule correctly, the last game of the SCF could even be June 24th? That'd be quite the crunch with the draft, buyout window, and then free agency July 1. (Not that I expect this year's SCF to go 7 games).

Most teams never really did their buyouts right on Day 1 of the window anyway, of course, so I guess in a way it doesn't really matter. As long as they complete them before July 1, which even this potential late start allows, then it doesn't REALLY matter. Just seems like it could be a little compacted compared to past years.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

If I'm reading the schedule correctly, the last game of the SCF could even be June 24th? That'd be quite the crunch with the draft, buyout window, and then free agency July 1. (Not that I expect this year's SCF to go 7 games).

Most teams never really did their buyouts right on Day 1 of the window anyway, of course, so I guess in a way it doesn't really matter. As long as they complete them before July 1, which even this potential late start allows, then it doesn't REALLY matter. Just seems like it could be a little compacted compared to past years.

Yup.

It's one of the things that was brought up about a PLD buyout, as he turns 26 (or 27) on June 24th, which would change his buyout from 1/3 to 2/3. Now that it came out LA isn't buying him out and assuming they're genuine it doesn't matter anymore for them.

 

[GCK]

Rather than each club using a buyout maybe Ottawa and LA could trade their two young disappointing guys? Norris for PLD?

PLD is lazy, Norris just had shoulder surgery. Not comparable.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Any chance Florida buys out Spencer Knight? It only gives them a 750K cap hit for 4 seasons vs two more years at $4.5M and they can re-sign Stolarz.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Another guy I wonder about is Risto in Philadelphia it just hasn't worked in Philadelphia

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Any chance Florida buys out Spencer Knight? It only gives them a 750K cap hit for 4 seasons vs two more years at $4.5M and they can re-sign Stolarz.

Probably not, there is WAY to much talent and potential there.

Personally I don't know that I'd bring him in because he has documented mental health issues and Toronto would seem like a bad market for a player like that, ESPECIALLY a goalie.

A forward or D man? MAYBE you bring him in depending on who it is.

But a goalie can't afford to be mentally off.

All that being said I am interested in what the eventual decsion on him will be because at some point they need to make a decsion.

And if he ever did become available there would be A LOT of interest

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Another guy I wonder about is Risto in Philadelphia it just hasn't worked in Philadelphia

It hasn't? He's played like the best hockey of his career there. I mean sure this season he had injury issues but last year he was statistically one of the best defensive defensemen in the league out of nowhere.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Any chance Florida buys out Spencer Knight? It only gives them a 750K cap hit for 4 seasons vs two more years at $4.5M and they can re-sign Stolarz.

Zero. He went into the player assistance program and then they kept him in the minors mainly for cap reasons. He actually had a very good season in Charotte this year. His value is far from what it used to be but it is absolutely still positive at his age. If he is made available there will certainly be interested parties.

 

[Hobnobs]

Any chance Florida buys out Spencer Knight? It only gives them a 750K cap hit for 4 seasons vs two more years at $4.5M and they can re-sign Stolarz.

No, he can definitely still be traded. Probably at the draft. It's two more year @ 4.5 which is doable and not much risk for a non-cap team looking for a goalie and try move forward with a rebuild.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Does the extra cap increase for this coming season and the following seasons, reduce the buyouts this summer?

I doubt it, there isn't usually a ton anyw, and while the cap going up more than expected is awesome it's still only an extra 300-500K it's not that much

 

[ponder719]

Another guy I wonder about is Risto in Philadelphia it just hasn't worked in Philadelphia

Risto has been materially better under Tortorella + Shaw than at any point previous in his career. He's absolutely not a buyout candidate with this long left on his deal.

Philly has three potential buyout candidates: Atkinson, Petersen, and (if he's able to prove his health) Johansen. Otherwise, I don't see it.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Risto has been materially better under Tortorella + Shaw than at any point previous in his career. He's absolutely not a buyout candidate with this long left on his deal.

Philly has three potential buyout candidates: Atkinson, Petersen, and (if he's able to prove his health) Johansen. Otherwise, I don't see it.

It seemed like Danny B was shopping him pretty hard at one point

 

[stymie]

Just ring 362 4360.
Problem solved.

 

[jamiebez]

Another option is the Jets targeting and trading for a top 4 D (probably RD?) or RD Winnipeg thinks can become a 2nd pairing guy, and sending Schmidt max retained back in that trade (along with picks or prospects or whatever the other team is asking for). Some players that may or may not work in a scenario like that... Jokiharju (BUF), Savard (MTL), Chychrun (OTT), Liljegren (TOR), Boqvist (CBJ), Jensen (WAS), Murphy (CHI), Fabbro (NAS), Rutta (SJS), Hronek (VAN), Whitecloud (VGK)

This is a good list, but I'd probably split these guys into 2 categories.

1. 30+ guys who are probably bottom-pair D's. These are guys you could probably move Schmidt for in a one-for-one, maybe retaining a bit of salary to even things out. Savard, Jensen, Murphy, Ruuta

2. 20-something guys with potential. I feel like this is a list of guys that Jets would be going after in a bigger trade: either as part of an Ehlers deal, maybe with some sort of draft capital coming back as well. Template for a deal is recent Jets trades like Trouba for Pionk + 1st, or Copp for Barron + 1st + 2nd. I don't imagine Schmidt needs to be involved here. This would be Chychrun, Liljegren, Boqvist, Fabbro, Hronek, Whitecloud