Which team has the brighter future? OTT/DET/MTL/BUF

[NyQuil]

People don't rag on the Sens prospects because of that, they are critical because there's nothing in the system to support those guys.

The Sens aren't a contender and don't have any players in their system to make them one. That's why people are worried about their lack of prospects.

It's a big hole in their development as a team.

As you (hopefully) become more successful, your guys presumably get older and generally more expensive and in demand. In order to play good cap economics, a few solid contributors on ELCs can make a huge difference.

After the bumper crop of 2020, with Ottawa struggling to find a top prospect from 2021-2023, that's a 3 year window where they won't have a homegrown potential star talent in the future to plug into the lineup at a relatively economical price.

3 years is not insignificant when the division is so competitive.

 

[Akrapovince]

It's a big hole in their development as a team.

As you (hopefully) become more successful, your guys presumably get older and generally more expensive and in demand. In order to play good cap economics, a few solid contributors on ELCs can make a huge difference.

After the bumper crop of 2020, with Ottawa struggling to find a top prospect from 2021-2023, that's a 3 year window where they won't have a homegrown potential star talent in the future to plug into the lineup at a relatively economical price.

3 years is not insignificant when the division is so competitive.

Look at how much a 40-50 point forward goes for these days… If a prospect makes an impact like that in year two or three of his entry level contract, you are more confident and able to bridge your other players coming out of entry level contracts.

Ideally, you have your core locked up to eight year deals, maybe three forwards and a couple defensemen. (Stützle, Tkachuk, Norris, Sanderson, Chabot) and you supplement them with players that are on good contracts (Jensen, Batherson, Pinto) and once those good contracts are up, you can use prospects to mitigate the damage.

Pinto @ 7m would be a huge raise, however you can stomach that if you can create a line with a prospect, Pinto and a bargain contract.

Prospect (.950) Pinto (7m) Batherson (4.9750), you automatically create a great line while giving a player a raise all by just keeping your prospect…

When they traded for DeBrincat and Chychrun, they didn’t just lose draft capital. They lost flexibility.

ELC player playing like a 5 million dollar player and going out and using that savings to get another 5 million dollar players to plug a hole is the way to build a team.

Ottawa rushed and failed.

IMO Buffalo should have done what Ottawa did, they are actually ready to turn the corner and continue to accelerate out of the corner down the road. That pipeline is jacked. Ottawa tried to turn the corner and the car ran out of gas.

 

[Just Linda]

It's a big hole in their development as a team.

As you (hopefully) become more successful, your guys presumably get older and generally more expensive and in demand. In order to play good cap economics, a few solid contributors on ELCs can make a huge difference.

After the bumper crop of 2020, with Ottawa struggling to find a top prospect from 2021-2023, that's a 3 year window where they won't have a homegrown potential star talent in the future to plug into the lineup at a relatively economical price.

3 years is not insignificant when the division is so competitive.

I just imagine what the conversation would be like if the Sens had one of Korchinski/Mintyukov/Kasper and But/Benson/Yager instead of renting Chychrun and Debrincat

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

It's a big hole in their development as a team.

As you (hopefully) become more successful, your guys presumably get older and generally more expensive and in demand. In order to play good cap economics, a few solid contributors on ELCs can make a huge difference.

After the bumper crop of 2020, with Ottawa struggling to find a top prospect from 2021-2023, that's a 3 year window where they won't have a homegrown potential star talent in the future to plug into the lineup at a relatively economical price.

3 years is not insignificant when the division is so competitive.

All the young core players on the Sens are signed to long term contracts, why would they need to replace any of them? Their cap structure is built around those contracts, and they already all fit. Is the cap going to shrink.

Ottawa's lack of blue chip prospects in the system isn't ideal, but it doesn't hurt them nearly as much as you're saying. Tkachuk, Stützle, Norris, Chabot, Sanderson, and Batherson are all locked up for at least the next 3 years. The only young players who could get big pay increases in the next 4 years are Batherson and Pinto, and I don't see either of those guys exploding into elite player category where they're commanding 8 mil contracts.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Went with Ottawa. Stützle’s ceiling is a big reason for me. Sanderson too. Buffalo also might have the high end C and D already. Time will tell of course. I’m not sure Detroit or Montreal has that potentially elite 1C and 1D combination. It’s easier to build around an elite 1C and 1D. Detroit and Montreal have some really nice young players and prospects though.

 

[NyQuil]

All the young core players on the Sens are signed to long term contracts, why would they need to replace any of them? Their cap structure is built around those contracts, and they already all fit. Is the cap going to shrink.

Ottawa's lack of blue chip prospects in the system isn't ideal, but it doesn't hurt them nearly as much as you're saying. Tkachuk, Stützle, Norris, Chabot, Sanderson, and Batherson are all locked up for at least the next 3 years. The only young players who could get big pay increases in the next 4 years are Batherson and Pinto, and I don't see either of those guys exploding into elite player category where they're commanding 8 mil contracts.

Its not about replacement it’s about building up quality depth and redundancy.

We have all our guys signed? Great.

A team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 7 years will look basically the same for the next four years and we don’t have any real impact guys in the system (aside from maybe the recently drafted Yakemchuk). Free agents can help mitigate that but they don't tend to be as cost-effective as ELC players.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Its not about replacement it’s about building up quality depth and redundancy.

We have all our guys signed? Great.

A team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 7 years will look basically the same for the next four years and we don’t have any real impact guys in the system (aside from maybe the recently drafted Yakemchuk). Free agents can help mitigate that but they don't tend to be as cost-effective as ELC players.

Ottawa already has depth with their core, this isn't a team built off of 2-3 superstars, it's a team where the talent is spread out through the top 6 and top 4.

And really disingenuous to say this team hasn't made the playoffs in 7 years and has looked the same. Sanderson, Pinto, and Stützle are all young players that haven't been here long that can be impact players. Those guys are nowhere near done developing and they have great potential.

They already have all their impact players on the roster. This idea that Ottawa's in a worse spot than the other teams because their prospects have all graduated and become impact players in the NHL so now the cupboard is thin doesn't make much sense. Yes those players have failed to make the playoffs, but they're still young, had really poor coaching in the past, and have dealt with some of the worst goaltending in the league. All of those things have seemingly been addressed this offseason, so we'll have to see how that goes.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I just imagine what the conversation would be like if the Sens had one of Korchinski/Mintyukov/Kasper and But/Benson/Yager instead of renting Chychrun and Debrincat

Those potential picks, have now been flipped into Linus Ullmark and Nick Jenson, and the rental years of Debrincat and Chychurn like you said.

 

[NyQuil]

This idea that Ottawa's in a worse spot than the other teams because their prospects have all graduated and become impact players in the NHL so now the cupboard is thin doesn't make much sense.

When did I say they were in a worse spot than the other teams?

I'm saying that a three year hole in acquiring any significant drafted talent can be a problem.

The fact that the team wasn't a playoff team over those years means that those picks would have been in a decent drafting position to acquire a future NHLer.

And really disingenuous to say this team hasn't made the playoffs in 7 years and has looked the same.

I said that they are going to look the same for the next four years, not that they looked the same for the entire 7 years.

I don't know who you are arguing with, it doesn't seem to be me judging by how often you are putting words in my mouth.

The team improving is going to rely on:
1. Ulmark playing well and then choosing to stay with Ottawa.
2. Fewer injuries to core players and continued internal improvement.
3. Travis Green.

No one else is coming to help.

Most teams with empty prospect cupboards have already been in the playoffs for some time.

 

[Baksfamous112]

I mean Pinto scored at a 54 point pace this year and had very decent defensive metrics at the NHL level. Newhook isn't a center, Kasper has done okayish at the AHL level, and Danielson and Hage are recent draft picks that aren't NHL assets yet. No clue why those guys would be compared to Pinto at all really.

So did Newhook this year and Dach last year. Not sure why you think Pinto a step above them

The fact that you refuse to acknowledge that Norris has missed WAY more games the Hughes and is no way comparable at all is saddening. No use responding to someone who is clearly trolling because he doesn't like facts.

The only difference between Hughes and Norris & Dach is the former got surgery during the off season while the other two right at the start of the year. All 3 had one healthy season in the past 3 years.

 

[The Abusement Park]

So did Newhook this year and Dach last year. Not sure why you think Pinto a step above them

I never said Pinto was a step above Dach?

But I still don’t believe Newhook is a C, at least not a C that will be good enough for a contending team.

 

[Satanphonehome]

I'm going to take "brighter future" to mean which collection of talent is going look the best three years from now and I'm going to focus on the cores.

Let's start with the centres:

He's put up 2 50-assist seasons and he's still only 22 — Tim Stutzle has to be the first pick as a 1C here. Kid's game has some warts but they look like the types of things that get fixed by maturity. He has the longest runway and might be the best weapon right now.

He may have taken a step back last year, but you can't minimize the game-breaking prowess of Tage Thompson. He's 15th in goals scored for the entire NHL over the past 3 years, and his rare physical gifts make him a legit threat to put up 50 goals and 100 points. He can be a 1C but wasn't last year and has to show he can do it again.

I love the heady, competitive game Nick Suzuki plays. This kid gets it and I'd have no issue matching him up in a 7-game series against the two more talented guys above him on the list. But I kinda suspect that last season is about where he's going to top out in terms of numbers. I think of him more as an elite 2C, than a 1C.

Dylan Larkin probably has better tools than Suzuki. He's an excellent player and does a lot of things well. You know you're going to get 30ish goals and a point a game from him. I'd say it's more or less a pick-'em between him and Suzuki. This is a 3-year projection, so tie goes to the younger player.

Another Sabre who had a down year is Dylan Cozens, but I've seen enough of him on different stages to feel pretty confident that he is legitimately the 30ish-goal, 70ish-point man he showed at 22. He's a similar package to Larkin in terms of fire and speed and skill and is a good bet to be playing at a similar elite 2C level at 26

After that, we're looking at a ton of question marks:

Can Josh Norris and Kirby Dach stay healthy, and if they can, where are their ceilings? Do they have more than 60 points in their holsters? Is there more to their overall games than 2nd-line scoring?

I quite like Shane Pinto. Don't see him having the pure talent of either of the guys directly above him, but he's got game. He will likely be Ottawa's 2C and a good player, but I'm not sure he'll ever be anyone's preferred 2C

I don't see Peyton Krebs or Alex Newhook ever evolving into core pieces.

Any of Nate Danielson, Marco Kasper, Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund, Konsta Helenius, Ridley Greig and Owen Beck could become a middle-six C, but it would be unexpected to see any of them becoming a legitimate 2C within 3-year period I'm framing this.

So, I'm taking the Sabres 1st here because I don't see a huge separation at 1C and I believe they are the only team with a confirmed answer at 2C.

Either Ottawa or Montreal could move past them with a breakout/rebound from Dach, Pinto and Norris.

Next up will be wingers.

 

[Xspyrit]

The fact that you refuse to acknowledge that Norris has missed WAY more games the Hughes and is no way comparable at all is saddening. No use responding to someone who is clearly trolling because he doesn't like facts.

Norris vs Hughes games played

2020-21 : 56 vs 56 (full season for both)
2021-22 : 66 vs 49
2022-23 : 8 vs 78
2023-24 : 50 vs 62

So outside of 2022-23 where he got injured after 4 games then tried to come back but finally got shut down, Norris actually played 5 more games than Hughes

Both players have been injury prone, only difference is that Norris nearly missed a full season

Important to note that we're comparing an elite #1C and a #2C

People don't rag on the Sens prospects because of that, they are critical because there's nothing in the system to support those guys.

The Sens aren't a contender and don't have any players in their system to make them one. That's why people are worried about their lack of prospects.

I have been extremely critical since 2021 (to the point of frustrating some other Sens fans) but come on...


Stützle (22), Tkachuk (24), Batherson (26), Norris (25), Pinto (23), Greig (21), Halliday (22), Ostapchuk (21)

Sanderson (22), Chabot (27), Zub (28), Kleven (22), Yakemchuk (18), Donovan (20), Andonovski (19)

Ullmark (30), Sogaard (23), Merilainen (21)

What is extremely annoying is to have witnessed Pierre Dorion squander a lot of the possible wealth. They could easily have the best future in the NHL but Dorion happened (Tyler Boucher 10th OA, DeBrincat, Chychrun, Duchene, Zibanejad, Dadonov fiascos, plus so many other bad/stupid moves)

They still have a possible great future, very reliant on how good Stutzle and Sanderson become but I'm personally not re-assured yet that they have the right management to offset 7 years of utter-incompetence

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Montreal's rebuild started significantly more recently than the others, so I think right now I'd tend to give them the benefit of the doubt, even though there's a very good chance they'll be the worst of the 4 teams this coming year. But they also haven't been doing this for years and years now, unlike the other 3 teams.

Ottawa really could have started to figure it out, but hiring Travis Green to be the next head coach? Why?! That shows that management and possibly ownership are inept. Why didn't they try to take a shot at Sheldon Keefe? I'm glad they didn't.

Buffalo really should have started to figure it out, but I don't trust any of their front office, nor the owner. Hiring Ruff was very predictable. I predicted over 2 years ago that Ruff would be the head coach there again after he was done with the Devils, whenever that time came. It's definitely not anywhere near the worst hire like what their neighbors to the Northeast of them just did.

I don't really know what Detroit is doing, other than ensuring they finish anywhere between 7th and 12th in the conference for the foreseeable future. I have no idea what Yzerman was doing this offseason, and he's signed at least one stupid UFA contract the last 3 offseasons now? Honestly, Yzerman inherited such a nasty mess when he walked in that it was gonna take a whole lot of time. I said several years ago now that I didn't think they'd be a consistent playoff team any earlier than 2026, but many of these moves seem like they could put them in a wild card/lower seed spot or keep them in purgatory until they get another GM in there. I wouldn't be surprised if it's playoffs or bust for Yzerman this year. I could easily see both Yzerman and Lalonde being blasted into orbit without a playoff berth this year.

Safe bet that if there was any internal pressure on Yzerman, he would've gone chasing FAs this summer instead of making every signing a 1-2 year plug.

He ain't losing his job any time soon. He's been saying since Day 1 that he was gonna build through the draft and right now they've only promoted 2 of his draftees. You can argue all day whether or not that comes to fruition, but that's going to be his continued selling point to Ilitch.

Only if and when you start seeing several of those draftees bust will Ilitch start to question that.

 

[The Management]

Montreal is a bit of an outlier here. Even though I think it's fair to include them in the discussion, they haven't been expected to make a playoff push like the other three. It's a bit easier to have a rosy outlook when you're bottoming out and collecting draftees because the expectations aren't really there; you're just looking for signs of growth (which they had last year with Slafkovsky). It's far more challenging however to convert that potential into results, as the other three clubs are seeing.

Honestly not sure which team I'd pick in this poll.

The Atlantic is a tough division.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

I can't say which teams future is brighter. All I can say is that the Habs future looks promising.

 

[dgibb10]

Norris vs Hughes games played

2020-21 : 56 vs 56 (full season for both)
2021-22 : 66 vs 49
2022-23 : 8 vs 78
2023-24 : 50 vs 62

So outside of 2022-23 where he got injured after 4 games then tried to come back but finally got shut down, Norris actually played 5 more games than Hughes

Both players have been injury prone, only difference is that Norris nearly missed a full season

Important to note that we're comparing an elite #1C and a #2C



I have been extremely critical since 2021 (to the point of frustrating some other Sens fans) but come on...


Stützle (22), Tkachuk (24), Batherson (26), Norris (25), Pinto (23), Greig (21), Halliday (22), Ostapchuk (21)

Sanderson (22), Chabot (27), Zub (28), Kleven (22), Yakemchuk (18), Donovan (20), Andonovski (19)

Ullmark (30), Sogaard (23), Merilainen (21)

What is extremely annoying is to have witnessed Pierre Dorion squander a lot of the possible wealth. They could easily have the best future in the NHL but Dorion happened (Tyler Boucher 10th OA, DeBrincat, Chychrun, Duchene, Zibanejad, Dadonov fiascos, plus so many other bad/stupid moves)

They still have a possible great future, very reliant on how good Stutzle and Sanderson become but I'm personally not re-assured yet that they have the right management to offset 7 years of utter-incompetence

"Other than the year where Jack Hughes played 78 games+2 playoff series and Norris missed the entire season, it's basically the same"

 

[Xspyrit]

"Other than the year where Jack Hughes played 78 games+2 playoff series and Norris missed the entire season, it's basically the same"

Yes, you are confirming that you have the ability to read. But I'll put it a different way just to be sure.

Let's say for the next 6 years they have similar seasons where they play almost the entire year or miss the same number of games, after 10 years there would be only ONE season where there was a significant difference... Or IF Hughes is the one who misses a full season, then it's back to square one

Hope it's clear.

 

[dgibb10]

Yes, you are confirming that you have the ability to read. But I'll put it a different way just to be sure.

Let's say for the next 6 years they have similar seasons where they play almost the entire year or miss the same number of games, after 10 years there would be only ONE season where there was a significant difference... Or IF Hughes is the one who misses a full season, then it's back to square one

Hope it's clear.

The problem is you are trying to write off Norris missing an entire season as if it's meaningless.

And he's had 3 surgeries on that same shoulder now

 

[Golden_Jet]

The problem is you are trying to write off Norris missing an entire season as if it's meaningless.

And he's had 3 surgeries on that same shoulder now

Think poster is arguing there is not much difference, if Hughes is rehabbing his shoulder in season, instead of off season like Hughes did. Then they’re probably similar, they’re both injury prone players.

 

[dgibb10]

Think poster is arguing there is not much difference, if Hughes is rehabbing his shoulder in season, instead of off season like Hughes did. Then they’re probably similar, they’re both injury prone players.

"If I pretend the 60+ games hughes played last year don't exist it's basically the same".

The biggest concern is the fact that we are now at 3 surgeries on the same shoulder for norris

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

People on here love to rag about the Sens' prospect pool but that's what happens when they hit big on 3 young prospects (Stu/Sanderson/Greig), 2 of which have turned into star/franchise level players. Not many teams have a draft like the 2020 Sens one.

In looking at these teams it's pretty impossible to predict because we all know most prospect pools never pan out even remotely close to the way they're projected.

If I look at team cores, I think the Sens are the obvious #1. They have 1C, 1D, 1G, and a good amount of complementary players.

The 3 other teams lack a 1G talent imo.

For one of the top prospect pools in the league, I don't see the Habs with a 1C, 1G, or 1D prospect. Hutson/Guhle, even if they hit, are probably not 1D players.

I remain mystified as to what Buffalo is doing and how they are building their team out. They have too many holes to fill and their asset management has been questionable. I don't think Tage is a player to build a forward group around.

The Wings always seem to perform better than I think they will. I think they have the most intriguing D-core highlighted by Seider and Edvinsson. I also like their draft mentality of strong two-way players.

So, in my opinion (that's what this post is about, right?), I see the Sens/Wings as being more likely to compete for the playoffs/Cup in the next several seasons.

I don't totally disagree with this but a few points I'd argue...

1. While the Sens 2020 draft is looking pretty good, it's also not hard to do considering what they went into that draft with. I'd argue that having a draft like that is more common than having two top 5 picks in a draft. (Dallas 2017 immediately comes to mind, and I have no doubt there's other examples)

2. The Sens prospect pool is generally ragged on because it's honestly crap now. To a degree that's not their fault because they've graduated a ton of big names the last couple seasons. The part that is their fault is, IMO, they started selling high picks too early, before they had established themselves as a competitor. And it doesn't help that those picks were sold for guys that had no interest playing in Ottawa.

2019 - I can't blame them too much for, because Thompson was mid-1st and there wasn't a whole lot of eye-popping talent picked close to him.
2021 - Reaching for Boucher with the talent that went after him was an absolute whiff.
2022 - Gross considering Debrincat bailed and the talent that went from 7-14. (Korchinski/Kasper/Savoie/Mintyukov/Geekie/Mateychuk/Nazar/McGroarty) They all look like decent NHL players at worst.
2023 - Harder to evaluate, but you've got some home run potential swings that were available at 12 with Benson and ASP, and a lot of other solid potential there.

And FWIW, even without the hindsight of Debrincat and Chychrun immediately bailing, I still think those were bad moves. I think part of extending your contending window is continuing to draft moderate to high end talent so you have good players on ELCs and bridges to counter the massive cap hits your core players are eating.

 

[Golden_Jet]

"If I pretend the 60+ games hughes played last year don't exist it's basically the same".

The biggest concern is the fact that we are now at 3 surgeries on the same shoulder for norris

Hughes shoulder is as fragile as Norris.
I see Hughes surgery this time, is performed by the same surgeon that Norris had a month earlier.

 

[bert]

Montreal has the highest ceiling but are further away from reaching their ceiling.

You sure? They dont have the prospects with the highest potential. No #1 d man in the system and a below average first line C with no one else in the system. All their highest draft capital spent on wingers and complimentary D men.

 

[bert]

cause they are totally similar.

please go in depth in why you think they are, I need a laugh.

Hughes cant stay healthy. Norris when healthy had 1 C numbers. While he has had worse injuries than Hughes I dont know how you can have it one way without the other. I personally think Norris is done But Pinto is a 2 C. I hope Hughes isnt done he is a very exciting player but with his slight build and all the injuries I am worried.

You are always hating on Ottawa. How come?