Which Forward Had The Best Season in 1988-89?
- Thread starter Dingo
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88-89 Lemieux is probably the best offensive season in NHL history.
Guy scored at a 210 points/80 GP pace playing with Rob Brown and Bob Errey.
Guy scored at a 210 points/80 GP pace playing with Rob Brown and Bob Errey.
MadLuke
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And a certain Paul Coffey... (like most... all ? near or more than 200 pts season)
Yes, but the other guy who put up 200 point seasons also had Coffey and astronomically better linemates.
MadLuke
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Rob Brown was maybe not an elite all timer hockey player, but when it came to the scoring part, the guy scored 212 points in the WHL for a reason.
Brown-Coffey-Quinn-Errey-Cullen, not special, obviously but, 27 years old Coffey is in the conversation in terms of the best teammate ever for a center to score a lot of points.
But 82 Gretzky scored 200 points by scoring 92 goals, 20 years old Coffey-Anderson-Messier-Kurri is not bad either, but he had a 147 even strenght points to "only" 57 on the pp split for a reason.
Remove Gretzky from the 1982 Oilers, do they score more than league average ? They scored 76 mores goal than the league average with a 212 points players, with a regular 80 points star center instead maybe they are the Hawerchuck jets.
1989 has an excellent argument to be the best offensive season of all time, being Mario best one and he is obviously one of the best to ever do it...
But I am not sure I would put the chance for that to be the case over 50% (or other reasonable chance to be, that match probably)
Brown-Coffey-Quinn-Errey-Cullen, not special, obviously but, 27 years old Coffey is in the conversation in terms of the best teammate ever for a center to score a lot of points.
But 82 Gretzky scored 200 points by scoring 92 goals, 20 years old Coffey-Anderson-Messier-Kurri is not bad either, but he had a 147 even strenght points to "only" 57 on the pp split for a reason.
Remove Gretzky from the 1982 Oilers, do they score more than league average ? They scored 76 mores goal than the league average with a 212 points players, with a regular 80 points star center instead maybe they are the Hawerchuck jets.
1989 has an excellent argument to be the best offensive season of all time, being Mario best one and he is obviously one of the best to ever do it...
But I am not sure I would put the chance for that to be the case over 50% (or other reasonable chance to be, that match probably)
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WalterLundy
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There is only one guy who put up 200 point seasons. Also I’d say dominating your own teammates who are better relatively over a 9 year consecutive span in remarkable fashion is more impressive than against an overall lesser cast for one season. The average 2-5th Gretzky teammate in 1981-82 (before those players became the players they would) put up an average of 95 points in 80 games to Gretzky’s 212. The average for the entire span for his Edmonton career (80-88) is Gretzky at 192 per 80 and the average 2-5 teammate at 100 per 80. Compare that to Lemieux’s 1989 season he is at 209 per 80 with the average 2-5 teammate at 104 per 80.
What Gretzky did in Edmonton in 1982 is better than what Lemieux did relative to his teammates in 1989. The fact that a dominance ratio over his best help is 1.92 for 9 years in a row and Lemieux is at a 2.00 dominance ratio with a lesser cast for one season tells you a lot and that using the teammate argument is foolish. As someone who saw both careers in their entirety they both had great help at various points. Lemieux in 1989 didn’t have the best cast overall but it was also a great environment for him to go all out and account for a lot of his teams production at his physical peak.
Point being no matter what the cast is, Gretzky (and Lemieux) are going to put up the numbers they did. To doubt that is silly. If anything their teammates get the benefit not them. It’s also not a reason to pick 88-89 as best overall. Gretzky has better seasons than that although it was incredible.
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Nathaniel Skywalker
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WalterLundy
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I know. The point about him putting up big numbers regardless stands as he was relied upon to do so when there isn’t much support. Lemieux in 1993 didnt see much of a ppg increase with better support and lower share on team goals. McDavid was in on 57.4% of his teams offense in 2021 as well.
Nathaniel Skywalker
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WalterLundy
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The season was 56 games. He played all 56 games which is a full season by definition here. It’s more of a full season than playing 60 out of 84 like in 1993.
Nathaniel Skywalker
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Iron Mike Sharpe
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Bobby Smith of the Habs, underrated elite two-way player and excellent playoff performer, overshadowed by teammates Roy and Chelios, but arguably a Smythe-worthy performance himself that year.
reckoning
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For each player, top five teammates who scored or assisted on goals the player figured in:
Lemieux
Brown 45
Coffey 42
Errey 37
Quinn 22
Zalapski 20
Gretzky
Nicholls 45
Robitaille 27
Duchesne 17
Allison 15
Krushelnyski 15
Yzerman
MacLean 40
Gallant 37
Chaisson 20
Norwood 17
Barr 10
None of these guys had much help past their top two teammates. All three of them could, and did, score regardless of who their linemates were.
Lemieux
Brown 45
Coffey 42
Errey 37
Quinn 22
Zalapski 20
Gretzky
Nicholls 45
Robitaille 27
Duchesne 17
Allison 15
Krushelnyski 15
Yzerman
MacLean 40
Gallant 37
Chaisson 20
Norwood 17
Barr 10
None of these guys had much help past their top two teammates. All three of them could, and did, score regardless of who their linemates were.
The Panther
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It's probably not top 5.
Lemieux in 1989 is outscored as even strength by Guy Lafleur in 1977 (who had less ice-time). Lemieux managed to put up those Gretzky-ish point totals that season because of the obscene numbers of power-plays the Penguins had (491 total... when Gretzky was putting up higher totals, the Oilers had maybe 290).
Now, of course, that (somewhat) works both ways: Lemieux himself is one of the reasons the Pens had so many power plays because defenders couldn't handle him. And his dominaton of team scoring in 1988 and 1989 surely shows his value to those teams (though in this he was matched by Jagr in the late-90s and McDavid a couple years ago).
So, that gives him a bump up the ladder for 1989, but probably not enough to reach top-5 status.
Iron Mike Sharpe
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TheStatican
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I'm sure we're all well aware of Gretzky's longevity advantage by now. However when it comes to individual seasons, Lemieux's scoring dominance over his teammates was absolutely comparable to Gretzky's. Comparing a players stats solely to his closest teammate's numbers is a simplistic approach; After all when a player is on the ice he isn't just out there with one other teammate. 99% of the time he is out there with 3 to 5 teammates, not including the goalie. So I don't see how it wouldn't make more sense to compare one's performance against at least several of his peers rather than just one considering line mates and ice time isn't set in stone and we just don't know that data for either of them. Here's how they compare in the early years when they had limited support.
| Gretzky | 80-81 | | | Lemieux | 87-88 | |
| 164 | +Pts | % | | 168 | +Pts | % |
2nd in scoring | 75 | 89 | 119% | | 79 | 89 | 113% |
3rd in scoring | 63 | 101 | 160% | | 74 | 94 | 127% |
4th in scoring | 60 | 104 | 173% | | 67 | 101 | 151% |
5th in scoring | 53 | 111 | 209% | | 45 | 123 | 273% |
6th in scoring | 53 | 111 | 209% | | 44 | 124 | 282% |
2nd to 6th combined | 304 | | 53.9% | | 309 | | 54.4% |
| Gretzky | 81-82 | | | Lemieux | 88-89 | |
| 212 | +Pts | % | | 199 | +Pts | % |
2nd in scoring | 105 | 107 | 102% | | 115 | 84 | 73% |
3rd in scoring | 89 | 123 | 138% | | 113 | 86 | 76% |
4th in scoring | 88 | 124 | 141% | | 94 | 105 | 112% |
5th in scoring | 86 | 126 | 147% | | 58 | 141 | 243% |
6th in scoring | 74 | 138 | 186% | | 49 | 150 | 306% |
2nd to 6th combined | 442 | | 48.0% | | 429 | | 46.4% |
| removing missed games | 442 | 48.0% | 412 | 48.3% |
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WalterLundy
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Good breakdown. All my point ever is when this topic comes up is that the teammate argument isn’t compelling. Either guy at their best is putting up 200+ with any cast in any scoring environment from 1980-1993 over a full season. That’s all I try to convey
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TheStatican
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Fair enough that I do not dispute.
In terms of overall ice time sure, but at even strength? That's pretty much impossible considering all the time Lemieux was spending on the powerplay and shorthanded in 88-89.
When Guy Lafleur scored 104 even-strength points in 1976-77 he was on the ice for one powerplay goal against. Essentially, he wasn't utilized in shorthanded situations at all. In contrast, Lemieux was on the ice for 60 powerplay goals against in 1988-89. This raises the question: just how many more even-strength points would Lemieux have accumulated if he hadn't spent so much time on the penalty kill that season.
Nathaniel Skywalker
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Comparing to 2nd is simpler. It’s also better.
You’ve extended the sample to prop up Lemieux, which means that we must include a Matti Hagman, who had 1 primary assist and 2 secondary assists on Gretzky points.
Gretzky totals were not inflated by Matti Hagman.
But it’s helpful to use Hagman as a comparison because he played most of the season, and around 50% more games than his 6th place counterpart from the 88 Pens.
Omitting names and games played also obscures that the 4th best 88 Penguin was Paul Coffey, who played a little more than half the season, but still nearly outscored a near full season from 2nd place Kurri.
Yep. It also means another 12 GA or so for the team.
MadLuke
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pim does not mean your team is on the pk too, there was a lot of penalty to both side of the ice, 10 minutes Misconducts, a little bit of fighting back in the days, for a player like Lemieux, it was not always trying to fix defensive mistake with a penalty, but retaliation's/fighting back.
24 of Mario penalty that season were from a single Flyers game:
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Box Score: November 26, 1988 | Hockey-Reference.com
Get the latest box score updates on the Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins game played on November 26, 1988 on Hockey-Reference.com
www.hockey-reference.com
The flyers did not score on a pp from them.
20 minutes were from 2 others games:
Vancouver Canucks vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Box Score: January 7, 1989 | Hockey-Reference.com
Get the latest box score updates on the Vancouver Canucks vs. Pittsburgh Penguins game played on January 7, 1989 on Hockey-Reference.com
www.hockey-reference.com
New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Box Score: February 18, 1989 | Hockey-Reference.com
Get the latest box score updates on the New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins game played on February 18, 1989 on Hockey-Reference.com
www.hockey-reference.com
1 goals against was scored i think, that 44 mins of penalty in 3 games, the rest of the season look "normal", Paul Coffey got 195 PIM in 88-89, it was a really different time.
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TheStatican
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Better? Did Gretzky exclusively play with only one other player every time he stepped out onto the ice? Was he supported offensively only by Kurri during the entirety of the '81 and '82 seasons? Clearly, those are preposterous conclusions, so why place so much value on a stat that myopically suggest exactly that?
When comparing Lemieux and Gretzky, focusing solely on the second-leading scorer on each team ignores the contributions of other key teammates and situational factors. It also ignores crucial missing information, such as the overall ice time of the second-place scorer, which would significantly impact their point totals. It's misleading to reduce or overlook the contributions of others, as their collective impact would certainly surpass that of the second-ranked scorer alone. Is my expanded six-player analysis perfect and without flaws? No, but it's still preferable to a dataset that employs only a single variable.
But there is a better method than either of the above. A more accurate measure of how much a player's scoring stands out compared to the overall quality of their teammates would be to compare their point totals to the total number of goals each team scored. Here's how the two compare in their prime years(team totals are the goals scored from the game they played in).
| Gretzky | Gm | Team | G | PT | G% | PT% |
| 1979-80 | 79 | 300 | 51 | 137 | 17.0% | 45.7% |
| 1980-81 | 80 | 328 | 55 | 164 | 16.8% | 50.0% |
| 1981-82 | 80 | 417 | 92 | 212 | 22.1% | 50.8% |
| 1982-83 | 80 | 424 | 71 | 196 | 16.7% | 46.2% |
| 1983-84 | 74 | 427 | 87 | 205 | 20.4% | 48.0% |
| 1984-85 | 80 | 401 | 73 | 208 | 18.2% | 51.9% |
| 1985-86 | 80 | 426 | 52 | 215 | 12.2% | 50.5% |
| 1986-87 | 79 | 365 | 62 | 183 | 17.0% | 50.1% |
| 1987-88 | 64 | 305 | 40 | 149 | 13.1% | 48.9% |
| Lemieux | Gm | Team | G | PT | G% | PT% |
| 1985-86 | 79 | 306 | 48 | 141 | 15.7% | 46.1% |
| 1986-87 | 63 | 243 | 54 | 107 | 22.2% | 44.0% |
| 1987-88 | 77 | 313 | 70 | 168 | 22.4% | 53.7% |
| 1988-89 | 76 | 336 | 85 | 199 | 25.3% | 59.2% |
| 1989-90 | 59 | 247 | 45 | 123 | 18.2% | 49.8% |
| 1991-92 | 64 | 289 | 44 | 131 | 15.2% | 45.3% |
| 1992-93 | 60 | 292 | 69 | 160 | 23.6% | 54.8% |
| 1995-96 | 70 | 331 | 69 | 161 | 20.8% | 48.6% |
| 1996-97 | 76 | 265 | 50 | 122 | 18.9% | 46.0% |
These above numbers corroborate Lemieux's stronger performance relative to his teammates in the previously compared years - Lemieux was involved in just about a ridiculous 60% of his teams goals in 88-89, a number that Gretzky never came close to approaching.
80-81 vs 87-88
50.0% vs 53.7%
81-82 vs 88-89
50.8% vs 59.2%
Simplicity in data analysis can be appealing seeing as how humans trend to prefer simplistic, easy to go through data sets, but it often comes at the cost of accuracy. Reducing a data set by excluding relevant variables or narrowing the scope obscures important details and leads to oversimplified conclusions. A broader data set that includes more context and variables offers a far more accurate and nuanced understanding of the subject. This principle applies across nearly all fields; hockey is no exception, where relying on more comprehensive data typically yields stronger, evidence-based conclusions, despite the trade-off of increased complexity.
MadLuke
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I feel the premise of looking at the second-third best scorer points on a Gretzky-Lemieux team can be a flawed premise.
How much points those 2nd-third player got is in good part the result of Gretzky-Lemieux play, when you look at say Kevin Stevens scoring rate with vs without Lemieux they fall on a clift.
If you develop a metric that in any way "Punish" Gretzky for Kurri scoring 70 goals-135pts instead of 50-110pts, Joe Thorton season is not better if Cheechoo score 40 goals instead of 56, it is in every way a worst season for him.
In 88-89 if Lemieux has a Messier-Anderson level second line, has the exact same season but only has 52% of his team points what does that tell us ?
Gretzky assists all involve someone else (often 2) other people getting points, it is impossible for him to separate himself from teammates more than a certain degree, just a mathematic way, same goes for percentage of his teams goals, the better he turn a team offense, the more his teams score goals, that lower your points percentages
TheStatican
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It would indicate that he had more offensive support.
When a player significantly outscores their nearest teammate, the implication is that the player was highly productive with little offensive support. My point is that relying solely on a single data point- the point total of the next closest teammate, without additional context isn’t the most definitive way to demonstrate this. While using the next five teammates or the team as a whole may not be a perfect measure either, it’s still superior to focusing on one single player alone.
Sure I can see how it wouldn't be fair to compare his numbers to someone who scored much lower. But the two seasons I'm comparing featured very close point totals from the two(376 vs 367) therefor that really isn't a consideration here.
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