Where would you rather the Montreal Canadiens finish this year?

[DAChampion]

Please explain. I have a feeling that the passage of time and clarification of who has had a good career is the only difference between picking 2010 as a cutoff and 2014.

Cherrypicking anecdotes does not constitute building a sample of data. You have to look at the bulk trends.

You say that you're trained in statistics, but you failed at arguably the very first task.

 

[DAChampion]

Let's use the 2012, 2013, and 2014 NHL entry drafts as examples. Let's look at forwards who have cemented themselves as top-6, or men as top-4.

2012 2nd round: Zero e
2013 2nd round: Zero. Lehkonen has had the best career, and De La Rose is 2nd.
2014 2nd round: Zero.

Fact is that great players are now much less likely to be drafted in the latter rounds. Let's contrast to the previous decade:

2002 2nd round: Duncan Keith
2003 2nd round: Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, David Backes
2004 2nd round: Brandon Dubinsky, Alex Goligoski, David Kreijci

Drafting is a lot more efficient than it used to be, and thus it's harder to find good players at the very first round. I'm surprised that this even needs to be explained.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

Let's use the 2012, 2013, and 2014 NHL entry drafts as examples. Let's look at forwards who have cemented themselves as top-6, or men as top-4.

2012 2nd round: Zero e
2013 2nd round: Zero. Lehkonen has had the best career, and De La Rose is 2nd.
2014 2nd round: Zero.

Fact is that great players are now much less likely to be drafted in the latter rounds. Let's contrast to the previous decade:

2002 2nd round: Duncan Keith
2003 2nd round: Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, David Backes
2004 2nd round: Brandon Dubinsky, Alex Goligoski, David Kreijci

Drafting is a lot more efficient than it used to be, and thus it's harder to find good players at the very first round. I'm surprised that this even needs to be explained.

There were some very good players picked even after the 2nd round those years.

2012 - Gostisbere, Parayko, Slavin, Miller
2013 - Guentzel, Butcher
2014 - Arvidson, Point, Heinen, Montour

In the second round in 2015 & 2016 guys like Aho, Carlo, Dunn, Girard and Debricat were picked.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Cherrypicking anecdotes does not constitute building a sample of data. You have to look at the bulk trends.

You say that you're trained in statistics, but you failed at arguably the very first task.

I agree with the first line. Do you have a suggested research plan?

On person says no one won a Cup the last 10 years without having a top 2 pick on the team (however acquired). Another person says that no Top 3 pick of the last 9 years has won a Cup on the team that drafted him.

Isn't the only way to check out these claims to look at how MANY DIFFERENT draft picks of various places in the hierarchy work out?

 

[BaseballCoach]

Let's use the 2012, 2013, and 2014 NHL entry drafts as examples. Let's look at forwards who have cemented themselves as top-6, or men as top-4.

2012 2nd round: Zero e
2013 2nd round: Zero. Lehkonen has had the best career, and De La Rose is 2nd.
2014 2nd round: Zero.

Fact is that great players are now much less likely to be drafted in the latter rounds. Let's contrast to the previous decade:

2002 2nd round: Duncan Keith
2003 2nd round: Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, David Backes
2004 2nd round: Brandon Dubinsky, Alex Goligoski, David Kreijci

Drafting is a lot more efficient than it used to be, and thus it's harder to find good players at the very first round. I'm surprised that this even needs to be explained.

You have a point, and it should be checked out scientifically.

Now, did you see my posting of all the #5, 7 and 8 picks over a ten year period compared to the 16th picks? How big was the difference?

 

[Dagistitsyn]

If they're not gunna be a bottom 5 team (surprisingly looking like thats the case), then I'd rather watch some Habs playoff hockey. No in between!

 

[DAChampion]

I agree with the first line. Do you have a suggested research plan?

On person says no one won a Cup the last 10 years without having a top 2 pick on the team (however acquired). Another person says that no Top 3 pick of the last 9 years has won a Cup on the team that drafted him.

Isn't the only way to check out these claims to look at how MANY DIFFERENT draft picks of various places in the hierarchy work out?

I have a suggested research plan, but unfortunately it's difficult to implement. I don't see of an easy way to investigate this unfortunately.

First, download all of the drafts for some reference years. The reference years are your choice, but, for example, 2009-2014 would be fine.

Then, don't cherrypick a range, but rather fit an exponential decline function to the entire range, the entire draft. That is because there is no magical cutoff point in the draft. The 30th player should only be slightly better than the 31st, the 14th slightly better than the 15th, and so on. However, the differences will be larger in the top-10.

The x-axis is draft rank. The y-axis is your preferred metric of player quality. It could be points, goals, minutes played, etc. If you want you can do a separate fit for forwards and dmen.

Remove the goalies from the fit unless you have a clever plan to adequately fit for goalies.

Finally, fit for the scale of the exponential decline (the slope of the logarithmic relation) for each season, do so by minimizing chi square / maximizing the likelihood. You can also separately fit for a zero-point offset if you want.

I predict that you'll find that player quality is declining more rapidly in recent drafts than it did in the past.

***

For those who don't know statistic, the hardest part of this plan is defining a metric for player quality. I suggest career points for forwards, and minutes played for dmen. For dmen, you might have a hard time finding a data table that lists all of the career minutes played. You can use games played to save time.

 

[Kriss E]

I'm highlighting your requirement just so we know what we're talking about. You did say "a" top drafted high end forward, right? "A" and not "many" or "several".

I look at our team and we have Drouin #3, Kotkaniemi #3. Those two are not "a". They are a couple which is more than "a". Then you can add Domi #12, Suzuki #13.

It's time we move on from this nonsense about tanking to get more top picks. But of course you're going to move the goal posts and say that Drouin and Koko Puffs are top draft picks but they are not high end forwards.

Well I assume people aren't out here just arguing for the sake of it and understand the overall meaning of posts.
Do you think I meant any top drafted talent fits the bill of my argument? Like...Galchenyuk was drafted 3rd overall, you honestly believe that's the type of player I'm arguing about needing when I mean ''top drafted forward''?? What about 1st overall Yakupov...I guess he fits the bill too hey?..
Come on man.

You know very well that by top drafted forward I'm talking about an elite caliber forwards, a la Kane, Ovechkin, Crosby, Tavares, MacKinnon, Backstrom, Stamkos, and the likes. I didn't think I had to explain this...

Kotkaniemi is young. We have no idea just how good he will become at this point.
Drouin is a top 6 guy at best. He's inconsistent.
Suzuki hasn't played a game here yet.
Domi is on an absolute hot streak, if he keeps it up it would be amazing. I'm not convinced yet.

I really am hoping this team proves me wrong and they become contenders. I much rather see that than have to read you admit you were wrong about the Habs again and we both get frustrated by this team, yet again.

 

[DAChampion]

On person says no one won a Cup the last 10 years without having a top 2 pick on the team (however acquired). Another person says that no Top 3 pick of the last 9 years has won a Cup on the team that drafted him.

If you're assuming that the past ten years is representative of reality, then tanking is absolutely necessary. The fact is that non-tanking teams have had zero success at winning, whereas tanking teams have had some success. The correlation between # of top-5 picks and playoff success is very high. It's not +1.0, but it's very high.

That said, sometimes staring at your rear-view mirror is not the best way to go through life. You might instead argue that the next ten years will not be like the past ten years, if you can find legitimate reasons why that might be.

 

[DAChampion]

Well I assume people aren't out here just arguing for the sake of it and understand the overall meaning of posts.
Do you think I meant any top drafted talent fits the bill of my argument? Like...Galchenyuk was drafted 3rd overall, you honestly believe that's the type of player I'm arguing about needing when I mean ''top drafted forward''?? What about 1st overall Yakupov...I guess he fits the bill too hey?..
Come on man.

You know very well that by top drafted forward I'm talking about an elite caliber forwards, a la Kane, Ovechkin, Crosby, Tavares, MacKinnon, Backstrom, Stamkos, and the likes. I didn't think I had to explain this...

Kotkaniemi is young. We have no idea just how good he will become at this point.
Drouin is a top 6 guy at best. He's inconsistent.
Suzuki hasn't played a game here yet.
Domi is on an absolute hot streak, if he keeps it up it would be amazing. I'm not convinced yet.

I really am hoping this team proves me wrong and they become contenders. I much rather see that than have to read you admit you were wrong about the Habs again and we both get frustrated by this team, yet again.

A valuable re-phrasing of his point is that the yield from high picks is far below 100%.

Hypothetically, if you want three good players drafted in the top-5, you will probably need more than three top-5 picks. Some teams might only need three, other teams might need seven, etc.

 

[Kriss E]

A valuable re-phrasing of his point is that the yield from high picks is far below 100%.

Hypothetically, if you want three good players drafted in the top-5, you will probably need more than three top-5 picks. Some teams might only need three, other teams might need seven, etc.

No doubt about it, which is why you give yourself a few years unless you are certain you picked some real high end guys.

 

[ColinO]

If they're not gunna be a bottom 5 team (surprisingly looking like thats the case), then I'd rather watch some Habs playoff hockey. No in between!

It's probably worth mentioning that 26 teams are either ahead of, tied with, or within 3 points of the Habs.
I think it's early to predict that they are not a bottom 5 team. It certainly doesn't look like it, but you never know.

 

[BaseballCoach]

It's probably worth mentioning that 26 teams are either ahead of, tied with, or within 3 points of the Habs.
I think it's early to predict that they are not a bottom 5 team. It certainly doesn't look like it, but you never know.

Good point. We will see, won't we?

 

[BaseballCoach]

I have a suggested research plan, but unfortunately it's difficult to implement. I don't see of an easy way to investigate this unfortunately.

First, download all of the drafts for some reference years. The reference years are your choice, but, for example, 2009-2014 would be fine.

Then, don't cherrypick a range, but rather fit an exponential decline function to the entire range, the entire draft. That is because there is no magical cutoff point in the draft. The 30th player should only be slightly better than the 31st, the 14th slightly better than the 15th, and so on. However, the differences will be larger in the top-10.

The x-axis is draft rank. The y-axis is your preferred metric of player quality. It could be points, goals, minutes played, etc. If you want you can do a separate fit for forwards and dmen.

Remove the goalies from the fit unless you have a clever plan to adequately fit for goalies.

Finally, fit for the scale of the exponential decline (the slope of the logarithmic relation) for each season, do so by minimizing chi square / maximizing the likelihood. You can also separately fit for a zero-point offset if you want.

I predict that you'll find that player quality is declining more rapidly in recent drafts than it did in the past.

***

For those who don't know statistic, the hardest part of this plan is defining a metric for player quality. I suggest career points for forwards, and minutes played for dmen. For dmen, you might have a hard time finding a data table that lists all of the career minutes played. You can use games played to save time.

Your hypothesis is interesting, but one fact stands out as contrary to it: no team in the last 9 years that had a top 3 pick won the Cup with him. A few possible theories I can come up with:

1. it is not true that the quality of player drops faster than before
2. it is true that the quality of player drops faster than before, but even the bigger drop doesn't move the needle on real teams
3. the recent change that pays RFAs a lot more money in the last 4 years before UFA status has shrunk the window of time to build up assets considerably
4. the huge variance in efficacy of UFA signings dwarfs many other factors in determining teams which will win under the salary cap system
5. trades have always been and still are the biggest reasons why teams get better or worse

Maybe you can come up with more. I just know that if we have to look back to 2004-2007 drafts to find teams that benefited from their draft position to win cups, it might mean that something has changed in the years in between. I really think it is numbers 3, 4 and 5 above.

 

[BaseballCoach]

No doubt about it, which is why you give yourself a few years unless you are certain you picked some real high end guys.

I'm not sure we have so many years anymore. Look at Toronto, in cap hell because of expiring ELCs!!! That was not the case ten years ago.

 

[DAChampion]

Your hypothesis is interesting, but one fact stands out as contrary to it: no team in the last 9 years that had a top 3 pick won the Cup with him. A few possible theories I can come up with:

1. it is not true that the quality of player drops faster than before
2. it is true that the quality of player drops faster than before, but even the bigger drop doesn't move the needle on real teams
3. the recent change that pays RFAs a lot more money in the last 4 years before UFA status has shrunk the window of time to build up assets considerably
4. the huge variance in efficacy of UFA signings dwarfs many other factors in determining teams which will win under the salary cap system
5. trades have always been and still are the biggest reasons why teams get better or worse

Maybe you can come up with more. I just know that if we have to look back to 2004-2007 drafts to find teams that benefited from their draft position to win cups, it might mean that something has changed in the years in between. I really think it is numbers 3, 4 and 5 above.

I'm assuming that Winnipeg, Toronto, Tampa Bay, etc will be competing for Cups, they just have not won them yet. You can check back on the claim in five years.

 

[Habs Icing]

Well I assume people aren't out here just arguing for the sake of it and understand the overall meaning of posts.
Do you think I meant any top drafted talent fits the bill of my argument? Like...Galchenyuk was drafted 3rd overall, you honestly believe that's the type of player I'm arguing about needing when I mean ''top drafted forward''?? What about 1st overall Yakupov...I guess he fits the bill too hey?..
Come on man.

You know very well that by top drafted forward I'm talking about an elite caliber forwards, a la Kane, Ovechkin, Crosby, Tavares, MacKinnon, Backstrom, Stamkos, and the likes. I didn't think I had to explain this...

Kotkaniemi is young. We have no idea just how good he will become at this point.
Drouin is a top 6 guy at best. He's inconsistent.
Suzuki hasn't played a game here yet.
Domi is on an absolute hot streak, if he keeps it up it would be amazing. I'm not convinced yet.

I really am hoping this team proves me wrong and they become contenders. I much rather see that than have to read you admit you were wrong about the Habs again and we both get frustrated by this team, yet again.

Let's just say we finish 30th this year and we pick 2nd. Are you gonna know what exactly you have come October 2019? So according to your reasoning, we don't know what we have in Kotkaniemi and we don't know what we have in that fantasy #2 we're getting in 2019 so we'll need to tank again in the 2019-2020 season. I guess we'll keep tanking until we know what we have. It could be 2 years or it could be 4. What astounds me about this logic is that

1) it's a loser's mentality
2) you really think you can gut a team - this team the way it's built right now - and believe you'll come out alright at the other end of 2, 3, 4 years of tanking. I'm just incredulous.

 

[De Montreal]

Dream scenario would be to go the Hurricanes route. Last year, they had a bad season but finished strong, and got very lucky at the lottery. This year, they made a few changes and now they will be battling for a playoff spot and even more.

Say we compete the whole year, give players good experience, but miss the playoff... then we get lucky, draft Kakko or Dach and next year we are set for a long time

 

[covfefe]

Let's use the 2012, 2013, and 2014 NHL entry drafts as examples. Let's look at forwards who have cemented themselves as top-6, or men as top-4.

2012 2nd round: Zero e
2013 2nd round: Zero. Lehkonen has had the best career, and De La Rose is 2nd.
2014 2nd round: Zero.

Fact is that great players are now much less likely to be drafted in the latter rounds. Let's contrast to the previous decade:

2002 2nd round: Duncan Keith
2003 2nd round: Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, David Backes
2004 2nd round: Brandon Dubinsky, Alex Goligoski, David Kreijci

Drafting is a lot more efficient than it used to be, and thus it's harder to find good players at the very first round. I'm surprised that this even needs to be explained.

If the claim is 'the 3 years sampled had underwhelming 2nd rounds' - then, sure. But your post hardly confirms that it is getting harder to draft 'great players' in the latter rounds, and merely that you found the 2nd rounds in the 3 years sampled to be particularly underwhelming.

And that might even be true - though I'd consider players like 2014's Dvorak and Montour as bonafide Top-6/4 players; as well as 2012's Tierney and Severson. But again, all that you have proven is that these were subpar 2nd rounds.

IE: you've ignored that later on in those drafts, the following players were drafted:

2012: Gostisbehere, Esa Lindell, Parayko, (Matt Murray, F. Andersen, Hellebuyck), Slavin, Colin Miller, Kerfoot, as well as some 'arguable' players like Josh Anderson, Connor Brown, Grzelcyk, and Vesey.

2013: Brett Pesce, Buchnevich, Bjorkstrand, Will Butcher, Jake Guentzel, Mattias Janmark

2014: Point, Arvidsson, Heinen, Kevin Labanc, Ondrej Kase; expecting more to crop up in the next 2 years as these guys are mostly U23's...

Seems you've also used a bit of a convenient time frame in your sample, as well. 2015's 2nd round has already yielded Aho, Fischer, and Vince Dunn; 2016's Debrincat and Girard. And going 2 years back from the start of your sample, 2010 saw Faulk, Toffoli, and Zucker all picked in the 2nd. In 2011 we saw Kucherov, Saad, William Karlsson, and to an extent, V. Rask and Jenner, satisfy your criteria.

Not to mention the following, all marquee, 60+ pt players drafted outside the top round, post 2010:

- Johnny Ham and Cheese
- Kucherov
- Aho
- Gourde
- W. Karlsson
- Trocheck
- Klingberg
- Mark Stone

So, if there's any definitive statement about drafting outside of the 1st today, it's that it's either the same or easier than it has proven to be in the past. And that is thanks to a host of other factors that we don't need to get into.

 

[montreal]

I look at this way, do you think the current Habs team has the talent to win a cup? Do you think guys like Drouin, Domi, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Tatar are going to put up 60-70+ points? The Habs haven't had one 70 pt player in how long let alone 2. Vegas just had 2 players with 75+ points and a defense that had 4 guys over 20+ pts, 5 guys with 55+ pts etc.. Now if Domi, Gallagher are 70+ point players then clearly they have taken a major leap forward and we have some serious talent on this team.

If not how are we going to contend with the likes of TB, Leafs, in our division? The problem with tanking as we have seen is that you need it to end up being a great draft class at the top ala Crosby, etc.. but even then it only starts there you have to build a winner and that will take years. We had a 3rd overall in Galchenyuk but look at how bad that draft class is shaping up, then you add in that this organization has struggled to develop skill and it makes things even tougher.

Now we have another 3rd OA in Drouin and after a terrible year last year, fans still seem very mixed on his play and upside. If he ends up a 70+ point player that's great for us, but if he's more of a 50ish point player that looks great with all his fancy moves and high speed but doesn't lead the way then that means others will have to pick up his slack putting pressure on other players. Now maybe Domi/Gallagher, etc.. pick up that slack, just that for a 3rd OA he should be leading the way although as we are seeing that draft isn't shaping up to be so hot either after the top 2 which look outstanding. Now if that's the case you can look at our 2nd major problem over the years and that's poor asset management in the area of pro scouting.

We'll see where things go, what moves MB makes, who continues to step up or not.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I look at this way, do you think the current Habs team has the talent to win a cup? Do you think guys like Drouin, Domi, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Tatar are going to put up 60-70+ points? The Habs haven't had one 70 pt player in how long let alone 2. Vegas just had 2 players with 75+ points and a defense that had 4 guys over 20+ pts, 5 guys with 55+ pts etc.. Now if Domi, Gallagher are 70+ point players then clearly they have taken a major leap forward and we have some serious talent on this team.

If not how are we going to contend with the likes of TB, Leafs, in our division? The problem with tanking as we have seen is that you need it to end up being a great draft class at the top ala Crosby, etc.. but even then it only starts there you have to build a winner and that will take years. We had a 3rd overall in Galchenyuk but look at how bad that draft class is shaping up, then you add in that this organization has struggled to develop skill and it makes things even tougher.

Now we have another 3rd OA in Drouin and after a terrible year last year, fans still seem very mixed on his play and upside. If he ends up a 70+ point player that's great for us, but if he's more of a 50ish point player that looks great with all his fancy moves and high speed but doesn't lead the way then that means others will have to pick up his slack putting pressure on other players. Now maybe Domi/Gallagher, etc.. pick up that slack, just that for a 3rd OA he should be leading the way although as we are seeing that draft isn't shaping up to be so hot either after the top 2 which look outstanding. Now if that's the case you can look at our 2nd major problem over the years and that's poor asset management in the area of pro scouting.

We'll see where things go, what moves MB makes, who continues to step up or not.

Reasonable thoughts, thanks guy.

You're right that it will take more than one drafted player to change a whole team from bad to Cup contender, and that the process is challenging.

I have come to realize that the long multi-year buildup doesn't work anymore because the ELC's are over so fast. Not only is Toronto in cap hell, but heck even Edmonton ran into an issue with both McDavid and Draisatl.

Rebuilds today have to be fast, with pace, so to speak!

And I just don't trust the IdiotGM (TM) to get it done properly. So I'm worried.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I'm assuming that Winnipeg, Toronto, Tampa Bay, etc will be competing for Cups, they just have not won them yet. You can check back on the claim in five years.

It's been 9 and 10 years since Stamkos and Hedman were drafted. That's a long time. In fact, they still sucked in 2013 4-5 years later, and got another #3 in Drouin

Besides Winnipeg, Toronto and Tampa Bay, what about

• Islanders (Tavares already gone to UFA)
• Colorado (3 top-3 picks and still suck)
• Edmonton (5 top-3 picks and still suck)
• Florida (4 top-3 picks and still nowhere good)
• Buffalo (3 top-3 picks and still not clear if they are going to get there)
• Montreal (2 top-3 picks and still not clear if they are going to get there)
• Arizona
• Columbus
• New Jersey
• Philadelphia
• Dallas
• Carolina

What is the percentage of contending teams here?

 

[jaffy27]

Bottom 5....for the better of the future, we ain’t winning the cup.

I ain’t into first round eliminations, I’m done with those....

 

[BaseballCoach]

Bottom 5....for the better of the future, we ain’t winning the cup.

I ain’t into first round eliminations, I’m done with those....

If you aren't into 1st round eliminations, I have great news! Finishing low, which is what you suggest, over the ten-year period from 2006-2015 has only resulted in ONE team going from, for example, second-to-last into a playoff spot. The other nine teams were still enjoying the bottom of the standings four years later! Enough to warm the heart!!

 

[BaseballCoach]

Let's use the 2012, 2013, and 2014 NHL entry drafts as examples....

The problem with this approach is that the first rounds for 2012 and 2013 were weak, so it makes sense that the 2nd round is also weak.