Where would you rather the Montreal Canadiens finish this year?

[Forum93]

I ****in hate tanking, it ruins the integrity of sport. The goal of any sport league is for every team to strive to make the playoffs every time. Here's an idea, all the teams that don't reach the playoffs are put into a lottery for equal dibs at first pick, then second pick etc....This way the bottom losers and quitters aren't getting rewarded for tanking. Teams that are in the playoffs get their pick corresponding with their points in the standings, with 1st overall getting last pick. .What's wrong with this scenario?

 

[Kriss E]

If you want to say Toews is the Hawks 1C drafted at #3, then the Habs will need Kotkaniemi to be the same.

LA won without a high drafted high end forward. Kopitar was drafted at #11 in the lottery. Boston won without any high drafted impactful forward, or D, or goalie!

Right, but they used their top 5 Schenn pick to get a key player, and you said it yourself, they were extremely lucky to have Kopitar at 11th. So yes, we can keep hoping to get lucky but that sounds quite stupid to me.
Boston is an exception and they did it with massive depth, which we do not have. Also, you're fully aware they had Seguin. So even them, despite him not being a factor, still had a top F. Not to mention, Bergeron, while not a top pick, would absolutely be one if redrafted today or back in their cup days. We don't have anybody like that. So again...banking on that isn't much of a strategy.
You can also point to Detroit but they had a very special and unique way of finding late guys that become superstars, but even they ran out of that luck.

But yes, let's hope Kotka can become that high end guys. Still we need more, as the Hawks also had Kane.

 

[DAChampion]

None of the recent Stanley Cup winners have made it there without tanking. In contrast, teams that have not tanked have had zero success at winning the Cup.

On the other hand, one can argue that the recent Stanley Cup finalists have all or nearly all made it there without tanking. It might be a decent counterargument.

 

[DAChampion]

I ****in hate tanking, it ruins the integrity of sport. The goal of any sport league is for every team to strive to make the playoffs every time. Here's an idea, all the teams that don't reach the playoffs are put into a lottery for equal dibs at first pick, then second pick etc....This way the bottom losers and quitters aren't getting rewarded for tanking. Teams that are in the playoffs get their pick corresponding with their points in the standings, with 1st overall getting last pick. .What's wrong with this scenario?

The way I justify tanking is that the same happens in real life.

For example, if you want to start your own business, you don't plan on being rich in your first year. You accept that you will be losing and hemorrhaging money in the first and sometimes even the second and third years.

Losing and suffering first in order to win later is part of life.

 

[DAChampion]

What about Carlson at 27? Barzal at 16? Kopitar at 11? P. Bergeron at #45? How many strong players do I have to find outside the top 10?

The point is that Kuznetsov might have been available for an unusual reason, but it is absolutely relevant. The Caps went for the best talent available, but the Habs TRADED UP (oh my lord) to get Tinordi four spots ahead of Kuznetsov.

So yes, I CAN suggest a general philosophy of going after the biggest talent, and not size and grit, in the first two rounds, or really almost any round.

Bergeron was drafted in 2003, back then drafting was less efficient and a lot of good players were left for the 2nd and 3rd rounds. That is no longer true. Just look at the 2013 draft -- Lehkonen is the best player of that second round. I like him but that would not have been the case in 2003, 2004, or 2005. Carlson and Kopitar were also drafted before 2010.

In the modern NHL, the draft is very efficient. Most of the scouts are very good. If you want to draft great players, you need first rounders, and you need as many as possible including as many high ones as possible.

The days of finding guys like Jamie Benn in the 4th round are over. And if it does happen, it will be exceedingly rare.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Right, but they used their top 5 Schenn pick to get a key player, and you said it yourself, they were extremely lucky to have Kopitar at 11th. So yes, we can keep hoping to get lucky but that sounds quite stupid to me.
Boston is an exception and they did it with massive depth, which we do not have. Also, you're fully aware they had Seguin. So even them, despite him not being a factor, still had a top F. Not to mention, Bergeron, while not a top pick, would absolutely be one if redrafted today or back in their cup days. We don't have anybody like that. So again...banking on that isn't much of a strategy.
You can also point to Detroit but they had a very special and unique way of finding late guys that become superstars, but even they ran out of that luck.

But yes, let's hope Kotka can become that high end guys. Still we need more, as the Hawks also had Kane.

We definitely agree that we don't have enough yet, which is why we should continue to amass picks, and swing for the fences on them.

 

[Habs Icing]

Why don't you list the teams that have won the cups in the cap era without a top drafted high end forward. Then tell me again how much better off we are at building as a PO bubble team.

I'm highlighting your requirement just so we know what we're talking about. You did say "a" top drafted high end forward, right? "A" and not "many" or "several".

I look at our team and we have Drouin #3, Kotkaniemi #3. Those two are not "a". They are a couple which is more than "a". Then you can add Domi #12, Suzuki #13.

It's time we move on from this nonsense about tanking to get more top picks. But of course you're going to move the goal posts and say that Drouin and Koko Puffs are top draft picks but they are not high end forwards.

 

[Forum93]

The way I justify tanking is that the same happens in real life.

For example, if you want to start your own business, you don't plan on being rich in your first year. You accept that you will be losing and hemorrhaging money in the first and sometimes even the second and third years.

Losing and suffering first in order to win later is part of life.

There are no guarantees but sure I get that way of thinking. What's wrong with the scenario I put out that doesn't reward the bottom tankers for sucking and sometimes losing on purpose.

 

[BaseballCoach]

In the modern NHL, the draft is very efficient. Most of the scouts are very good. .

Here are the #4-7 picks of 2014

4. Sam Bennett
5. Michael Dal Colle
6. Jake Virtanen
7. Haydn Fleury

Super-efficient, no one missed

• William Nylander at #8
• Dylan Larkin at #15
• David Pastrnak at #25 (!!!)
• Braydn Point at #79
• Viktor Arvidsson at #112

 

[DAChampion]

Here are the #4-7 picks of 2014

4. Sam Bennett
5. Michael Dal Colle
6. Jake Virtanen
7. Haydn Fleury

Super-efficient, no one missed

• William Nylander at #8
• Dylan Larkin at #15
• David Pastrnak at #25 (!!!)
• Braydn Point at #79
• Viktor Arvidsson at #112

I know that you're not illiterate and that you realize that your counterargument is bad.

 

[teamfirst]

But for that to happen, they have to be a 95 point team WITHOUT this player. So hoping they aren't is not going to work. If the players we have right now make up a 70 point team, adding Kakko is only the tip of the iceberg, because we would probably need 7-8 strong players to get to Cup contention status.

Unless we ask our young guy's to hide their skills and determination in the closet for a year and tell CP to play like last year......but MB would have to come here and tell us .....''that's the plan boy's''.....to reassure us that our young guy's are not THAT BAD.....''they're playing like crap for the greater good of the future''

 

[Habs Icing]

Bergeron was drafted in 2003, back then drafting was less efficient and a lot of good players were left for the 2nd and 3rd rounds. That is no longer true. Just look at the 2013 draft -- Lehkonen is the best player of that second round. I like him but that would not have been the case in 2003, 2004, or 2005. Carlson and Kopitar were also drafted before 2010.

In the modern NHL, the draft is very efficient. Most of the scouts are very good. If you want to draft great players, you need first rounders, and you need as many as possible including as many high ones as possible.

The days of finding guys like Jamie Benn in the 4th round are over. And if it does happen, it will be exceedingly rare.

Do you make up this nonsense as you go along?

Kucherov #58 in the 2011 draft
Brandon Saad #43 in the 2011 draft
Vincent Trocheck #64 in the 2011 draft
Johnny Gaudreau #104 in the 2011 draft
Ondrej Palat# 208 in the 2011 draft.
Shane Gotisbehere #78 in the 2012 draft
Colton Parayko #86 in the 2012 draft

Tell me again how finding the Jamie Benns in the 4th round is over.

The only reason you say that is because you are not aware of the bias in your analysis: the recent drafts took place too soon to have great players emerge. I only looked up to the 3rd rd of 2012 and I found great players. I don't want to spend more time debunking this nonsense.

 

[teamfirst]

I ****in hate tanking, it ruins the integrity of sport. The goal of any sport league is for every team to strive to make the playoffs every time. Here's an idea, all the teams that don't reach the playoffs are put into a lottery for equal dibs at first pick, then second pick etc....This way the bottom losers and quitters aren't getting rewarded for tanking. Teams that are in the playoffs get their pick corresponding with their points in the standings, with 1st overall getting last pick. .What's wrong with this scenario?

Nothing

I would prefer all the team.......playoffs team included, would avoid some supposevely genius GM trying to miss the playoffs cause they think they have no chance of winning the cup

 

[Habs Icing]

I know that you're not illiterate and that you realize that your counterargument is bad.

His argument is bad according to you because he demonstrated all the holes in your flawed theory

 

[BaseballCoach]

I know that you're not illiterate and that you realize that your counterargument is bad.

Please explain. I have a feeling that the passage of time and clarification of who has had a good career is the only difference between picking 2010 as a cutoff and 2014.

 

[Rapala]

It's still early but the East looks like it's going to have a ton of teams hovering around true .500 and will go down to the wire jockeying for position. Barring any disaster the Habs should be in that mix. This is not ideal IMO as it will likely prevent MB from moving assets for future considerations it won't help our draft chances either.

 

[BaseballCoach]

His argument is bad according to you because he demonstrated all the holes in your flawed theory

You know, this is like shooting ducks in the pond. A lot of the guys here are great fans, and they are smart, smarter than most people. However, when they start to make statistical assertions, they enter the realm of science, and in that realm regular smart people are still out of the experts' league.

In my case, I have been fortunate to have a mathematical mind that has been trained with strong fundamentals in statistics, but more importantly, I have kids who are working and doing their doctorates in the exact field of debunking bad studies and flawed hypotheses, and over the past ten years I have learned a lot from them.

 

[Habs Icing]

Here are the #4-7 picks of 2014

4. Sam Bennett
5. Michael Dal Colle
6. Jake Virtanen
7. Haydn Fleury

Super-efficient, no one missed

• William Nylander at #8
• Dylan Larkin at #15
• David Pastrnak at #25 (!!!)
• Braydn Point at #79
• Viktor Arvidsson at #112

Top picks in the later rounds are extremely rare. Go away.

 

[Habs Icing]

You know, this is like shooting ducks in the pond. A lot of the guys here are great fans, and they are smart, smarter than most people. However, when they start to make statistical assertions, they enter the realm of science, and in that realm regular smart people are still out of the experts' league.

In my case, I have been fortunate to have a mathematical mind that has been trained with strong fundamentals in statistics, but more importantly, I have kids who are working and doing their doctorates in the exact field of debunking bad studies and flawed hypotheses, and over the past ten years I have learned a lot from them.

I don't know how much of a mathematical mind he needed to go on hockeydb and check to see if any Jamie Benns were drafted in the later rounds of the more recent drafts?

 

[BaseballCoach]

It's still early but the East looks like it's going to have a ton of teams hovering around true .500 and will go down to the wire jockeying for position. Barring any disaster the Habs should be in that mix. This is not ideal IMO as it will likely prevent MB from moving assets for future considerations it won't help our draft chances either.

I share the concern, and have specifically called out that I prefer making the playoffs but ONLY if we don't make moves that sacrifice the future to get there.

That being said, some posters go too far, and want to sell solid assets of today for a 15% chance of getting just as good an asset back, simply in order to have a 3% chance at a true superstar. I think those are poor odds and we should not do it. When guys are signed for 3-5 years like Tatar, Petry and Byron, you can and you SHOULD entertain trades, but you should NOT trade these guys for a second rounder, if they are performing as 20+ goal forwards or 30+ point two-way D-men. The return has to be much better than a second rounder to be worth our while.

 

[Habs Icing]

I share the concern, and have specifically called out that I prefer making the playoffs but ONLY if we don't make moves that sacrifice the future to get there.

That being said, some posters go too far, and want to sell solid assets of today for a 15% chance of getting just as good an asset back, simply in order to have a 3% chance at a true superstar. I think those are poor odds and we should not do it. When guys are signed for 3-5 years like Tatar, Petry and Byron, you can and you SHOULD entertain trades, but you should NOT trade these guys for a second rounder, if they are performing as 20+ goal forwards or 30+ point two-way D-men. The return has to be much better than a second rounder to be worth our while.

I wanted to like this post but the like button has disappeared so I'm replying with a big, huge BINGO!!!!!!!!!!

 

[BaseballCoach]

I don't know how much of a mathematical mind he needed to go on hockeydb and check to see if any Jamie Benns were drafted in the later rounds of the more recent drafts?

Agreed, but when I go to do the research, I do it completely. I don't take one anecdote of a good early pick, or one anecdote of a good late pick. I look at the entire body of evidence and what I find is that the difference in calibre of player drafted is smaller than the gap in performance between a playoff team and a bottom feeder.

Or in my shorthand, there are very, very few players who make a 25 point difference in the standings, so it must not make sense to wish your team to be 25 points worse in order to benefit from a higher pick sequence, other things being equal.

 

[Habs Icing]

Agreed, but when I go to do the research, I do it completely. I don't take one anecdote of a good early pick, or one anecdote of a good late pick. I look at the entire body of evidence and what I find is that the difference in calibre of player drafted is smaller than the impact the difference makes to a team, when taking JUST that difference into account.

Or in my shorthand, there are very, very few players who make a 25 point difference in the standings, so it must not make sense to wish your team to be 25 points worse in order to benefit from a higher pick sequence, other things being equal.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

No teams who have finished with a top 3 pick since 2009 have won a cup in the last 7 years.

- Pittsburgh won recently with Malkin/Crosby locked up a few years back, now their contracts are below their market value and they were able to add a guy like Kessel who helped them get two cups.
- Chicago won their cups when Toews/Kane were on bargain contracts, now they are in cap hell and not a contender.
- Washington's top scorer in the playoffs and best D were picked late in the 1st round.
- LA won their cups with some smart trades to get Carter/Richards along with some great later picks like Quick.

With young players getting paid massively after their ELC, tanking isn't the solution now. It will be making smarter trades and finding value picks later in the draft.

 

[Habs Icing]

No teams who have finished with a top 3 pick since 2009 have won a cup in the last 7 years.

- Pittsburgh won recently with Malkin/Crosby locked up a few years back, now their contracts are below their market value and they were able to add a guy like Kessel who helped them get two cups.
- Chicago won their cups when Toews/Kane were on bargain contracts, now they are in cap hell and not a contender.
- Washington's top scorer in the playoffs and best D were picked late in the 1st round.
- LA won their cups with some smart trades to get Carter/Richards along with some great later picks like Quick.

With young players getting paid massively after their ELC, tanking isn't the solution now. It will be making smarter trades and finding value picks later in the draft.

Another BINGO!!!!!!