Where Does Auston Matthews Rank For You As A Goal Scorer All Time?

[Randyne]

Well he has a better first 8 seasons than Ovechkin

Of course he wasn't. Maybe couple players were better in NHL history.

 

[wetcoast]

Of course he wasn't. Maybe couple players were better in NHL history.

The argument is that they are really close overall in goal scoring their first 8 seasons and also that AM was the better ES goal scorer even if one has Ovi slightly better overall.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Of course he wasn't. Maybe couple players were better in NHL history.

Since this thread is about goal scoring, you tell me which is better:

368 goals in 562 games played

vs

371 goals in 601 games played

 

[Randyne]

Since this thread is about goal scoring, you tell me which is better:

368 goals in 562 games played

vs

371 goals in 601 games played

Of course 371 goals in 601 games played in DPE 2.0
Adjusted it's
422 G vs 399 G

 

[wetcoast]

Of course 371 goals in 601 games played in DPE 2.0
Adjusted it's
422 G vs 399 G

You do realize that adjusted you are talking about the difference of 23 goals over a 39 game difference so basically they are on par.

 

[Randyne]

You do realize that adjusted you are talking about the difference of 23 goals over a 39 game difference so basically they are on par.

So Auston wasn't better?

 

[wetcoast]

So Auston wasn't better?

I never said that, what I said is that it's very close and basically a pick em if you want to break it down.

I also disagree with your assertion "of course not" to the proposition that AM was the better goal scorer as it's extremely close over their first 8 years.

First 8 years Ovi scores goals better in the playoffs and stays more healthy, while AM is the better ES goal scorer, to me it's a pick em when it comes down to goal scoring.

 

[benfranklin]

Top 10 100%. Top 5 can talk me into based on projections, but assuming he retired today, he'd land in top 20.

 

[Legion34]

Bossy had peak Gretzky and Kurri (who played with Gretzky) to contend with. Otherwise he would have led the League in goals more than twice.

Also, he scored more goals in the '83 and '84 playoffs than Matthews has scored in his entire playoff career.


AM may surpass him, but he still has quite a lot of work to do.

He was playing against goalies who couldn’t skate and were wearing horse hair pads

Regardless. How can bossy be considered the best of all time if he only led the league in goals twice in 10 years?
Doesn’t that mean others have to have been better in 8 of those years?

 

[DitchMarner]

He was playing against goalies who couldn’t skate and were wearing horse hair pads

Regardless. How can bossy be considered the best of all time if he only led the league in goals twice in 10 years?
Doesn’t that mean others have to have been better in 8 of those years?

I don't think he's the best or greatest of all-time. He's top 8 to 10 or so. I don't think you can put him first because he lacks the peak (and the longevity to make up for that). But he was consistent in the regular season and had some very strong showings in the playoffs. He finished second in goals in 1982 to Gretzky's 92 goal season (and yes, scoring was really high that season and in the 80s, but that's still the highest scoring season of the 80s and all-time - not exactly easy to beat).

Matthews can definitely surpass him, but I'd like to have better showings from him in the playoffs before I put him ahead of Bossy.

 

[pedis]

I'm a leaf fan but because of the massive increase in goal scoring this era i still rate him below stammer and ovi

 

[x Tame Impala]

Goal scoring rates are much higher in today's league, I think Ovie would regularly be a a 70 goal scorer. Especially against today's goalies and expansion rosters.

Matthews will probably add 3+ Richard's to his trophy case but I don't think there will be any question for those who watched both of these guys play that Ovechkin was the better goal scorer.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

On the History forum, there's an adjusting scoring method called VsX. It's not perfect, but it's generally a good way to compare stats from different eras.

Most adjusted goals, best eight seasons (1927-2024)

Player	Total
Bobby Hull	549
Maurice Richard	521
Gordie Howe	510
Phil Esposito	480
Alex Ovechkin	470
Wayne Gretzky	456
Brett Hull	433
Mario Lemieux	423
Jean Beliveau	422
Mike Bossy	416
Steven Stamkos	407
Bill Cook	404
Charlie Conacher	403
Nels Stewart	396
Frank Mahovlich	395
Bernie Geoffrion	394
Jaromir Jagr	391
Auston Matthews	388
Stan Mikita	388
Roy Conacher	386

Based on this method, Matthews ranks tied for 18th, for most goals scorer over a player's best eight years. Of course, Matthews has only played eight years, and he's missed 10+ games twice already. He'll very likely climb this list, if he stays healthy (and he has a few full seasons push some of his injury-shortened years out of the top eight).

Most adjusted goals, best eight consecutive seasons (1927-2024)

Player	Total
Bobby Hull	533
Gordie Howe	505
Phil Esposito	480
Maurice Richard	462
Wayne Gretzky	455
Alex Ovechkin	442
Brett Hull	433
Mike Bossy	411
Jean Beliveau	404
Auston Matthews	388
Charlie Conacher	387
Bill Cook	386
Stan Mikita	381
Nels Stewart	379
Jaromir Jagr	379
Steven Stamkos	378
Mario Lemieux	369
Ted Lindsay	369
Bernie Geoffrion	369
Ilya Kovalchuk	361

Let's look at how these players rank over their best eight consecutive seasons. In Matthews' case, he only has eight years. This is (arguably) a more meaningful comparison, since we don't get to pick and choose a player's best years. (This doesn't really affect players like Gretzky or Bossy, who had a clear peak - but it hurts someone like Lemieux, who was frequently injured). Under this method, Matthews ranks 10th all-time.

Most adjusted goals, first eight seasons (1927-2024)

Wayne Gretzky	455
Alex Ovechkin	415
Mike Bossy	411
Maurice Richard	401
Gordie Howe	396
Bobby Hull	394
Auston Matthews	388
Charlie Conacher	387
Bill Cook	386
Steven Stamkos	378
Nels Stewart	368
Howie Morenz	356
Ilya Kovalchuk	356
Mario Lemieux	356
Phil Esposito	354
Teemu Selanne	345
Gordie Fashoway	344
Roy Conacher	344
Luc Robitaille	341
Guy Lafleur	335

Arguably this is the most meaningful way to evaluate Matthews right now. In terms of most goals scored through a player's first eight years, he ranks 8th all-time.

It's tough to evaluate a player who's in the middle of his prime. Matthews clearly has the possibility of becoming one of the top ten goal-scorers of all time. He's had an excellent start (and he'd rank even higher on each of these tables, if not for the approximately 40 games that he's missed). The two things that he needs to do, in order to solidify a spot in the top ten are improve his playoff numbers (which have been disappointing for a player of his calibre) and/or have good longevity.

For example, Mike Bossy is somewhere in the top ten all-time (amongst goal-scorers). Matthews is only two years away from matching Bossy's career length, but the gap in their playoff performances is enormous. Matthews will need to either make a serious dent in that, or compile his way past Bossy with many more years as a top goal-scorer.

Another comparable player might be Teemu Selanne. I think we can say that Matthews is the better goal-scorer, but it's close. Selanne also has a fairly disappointing playoff resume. He's generally outside of the top ten, and he scored close to 700 goals. If Matthews can't step up in the playoffs, he'll need some serious longevity to crack the top ten (because Selanne isn't there right now, with close to double Matthews' career total).

 

[Golden_Jet]

On the History forum, there's an adjusting scoring method called VsX. It's not perfect, but it's generally a good way to compare stats from different eras.

Most adjusted goals, best eight seasons (1927-2024)

Player	Total
Bobby Hull	549
Maurice Richard	521
Gordie Howe	510
Phil Esposito	480
Alex Ovechkin	470
Wayne Gretzky	456
Brett Hull	433
Mario Lemieux	423
Jean Beliveau	422
Mike Bossy	416
Steven Stamkos	407
Bill Cook	404
Charlie Conacher	403
Nels Stewart	396
Frank Mahovlich	395
Bernie Geoffrion	394
Jaromir Jagr	391
Auston Matthews	388
Stan Mikita	388
Roy Conacher	386

Based on this method, Matthews ranks tied for 18th, for most goals scorer over a player's best eight years. Of course, Matthews has only played eight years, and he's missed 10+ games twice already. He'll very likely climb this list, if he stays healthy (and he has a few full seasons push some of his injury-shortened years out of the top eight).

Most adjusted goals, best eight consecutive seasons (1927-2024)

Player	Total
Bobby Hull	533
Gordie Howe	505
Phil Esposito	480
Maurice Richard	462
Wayne Gretzky	455
Alex Ovechkin	442
Brett Hull	433
Mike Bossy	411
Jean Beliveau	404
Auston Matthews	388
Charlie Conacher	387
Bill Cook	386
Stan Mikita	381
Nels Stewart	379
Jaromir Jagr	379
Steven Stamkos	378
Mario Lemieux	369
Ted Lindsay	369
Bernie Geoffrion	369
Ilya Kovalchuk	361

Let's look at how these players rank over their best eight consecutive seasons. In Matthews' case, he only has eight years. This is (arguably) a more meaningful comparison, since we don't get to pick and choose a player's best years. (This doesn't really affect players like Gretzky or Bossy, who had a clear peak - but it hurts someone like Lemieux, who was frequently injured). Under this method, Matthews ranks 10th all-time.

Most adjusted goals, first eight seasons (1927-2024)

Wayne Gretzky	455
Alex Ovechkin	415
Mike Bossy	411
Maurice Richard	401
Gordie Howe	396
Bobby Hull	394
Auston Matthews	388
Charlie Conacher	387
Bill Cook	386
Steven Stamkos	378
Nels Stewart	368
Howie Morenz	356
Ilya Kovalchuk	356
Mario Lemieux	356
Phil Esposito	354
Teemu Selanne	345
Gordie Fashoway	344
Roy Conacher	344
Luc Robitaille	341
Guy Lafleur	335

Arguably this is the most meaningful way to evaluate Matthews right now. In terms of most goals scored through a player's first eight years, he ranks 8th all-time.

It's tough to evaluate a player who's in the middle of his prime. Matthews clearly has the possibility of becoming one of the top ten goal-scorers of all time. He's had an excellent start (and he'd rank even higher on each of these tables, if not for the approximately 40 games that he's missed). The two things that he needs to do, in order to solidify a spot in the top ten are improve his playoff numbers (which have been disappointing for a player of his calibre) and/or have good longevity.

For example, Mike Bossy is somewhere in the top ten all-time (amongst goal-scorers). Matthews is only two years away from matching Bossy's career length, but the gap in their playoff performances is enormous. Matthews will need to either make a serious dent in that, or compile his way past Bossy with many more years as a top goal-scorer. (Or look at Teemu Selanne. Matthews is probably a better goal-scorer, but Selanne also has a fairly disappointing playoff resume. He's generally outside of the top ten, and he scored close to 700 goals. If Matthews can't step up in the playoffs, he'll need some serious longevity to crack the top ten).

Great post,
Bobby Hull for the win for best 8 seasons.

 

[FerrisRox]

Since this thread is about goal scoring, you tell me which is better:

368 goals in 562 games played

vs

371 goals in 601 games played

It would depend on when those games were played.

If the 562 games were played in the mid-90's and the 601 games were played in the early 80's. I would consider the 368 goal total much, much, much better cause it would have been accomplished in the heart of the dead puck era where goals were much harder to come by.

When you're looking at different eras, there are so many things to factor in. Goalie equipment gets much lighter in the late 80's and into the 90's, but then it starts to get bigger, too.

Stick technology dramatically improves and begs questions like what would Mike Bossy do with one of today's sticks? Gretzky nearly scored 100 goals in a season with a wooden Titan. What could a 21-year old Wayne Gretzky could do today? What Auston Matthews be an elite goal scorer in the clutch-and-grab era? Who knows?

Another enormous factor is who were those games played with? If I am determining who is the better goal scorer, looking at those two sets of numbers, the line mates would play a big factor in making that determination as well.

 

[T REX]

Premature thread.

Need quite a few more years to really make an objective opinion.

Data is incomplete.

 

[BLNY]

#138.

 

[Regal]

On the History forum, there's an adjusting scoring method called VsX. It's not perfect, but it's generally a good way to compare stats from different eras.

Most adjusted goals, best eight seasons (1927-2024)

Player	Total
Bobby Hull	549
Maurice Richard	521
Gordie Howe	510
Phil Esposito	480
Alex Ovechkin	470
Wayne Gretzky	456
Brett Hull	433
Mario Lemieux	423
Jean Beliveau	422
Mike Bossy	416
Steven Stamkos	407
Bill Cook	404
Charlie Conacher	403
Nels Stewart	396
Frank Mahovlich	395
Bernie Geoffrion	394
Jaromir Jagr	391
Auston Matthews	388
Stan Mikita	388
Roy Conacher	386

Based on this method, Matthews ranks tied for 18th, for most goals scorer over a player's best eight years. Of course, Matthews has only played eight years, and he's missed 10+ games twice already. He'll very likely climb this list, if he stays healthy (and he has a few full seasons push some of his injury-shortened years out of the top eight).

Most adjusted goals, best eight consecutive seasons (1927-2024)

Player	Total
Bobby Hull	533
Gordie Howe	505
Phil Esposito	480
Maurice Richard	462
Wayne Gretzky	455
Alex Ovechkin	442
Brett Hull	433
Mike Bossy	411
Jean Beliveau	404
Auston Matthews	388
Charlie Conacher	387
Bill Cook	386
Stan Mikita	381
Nels Stewart	379
Jaromir Jagr	379
Steven Stamkos	378
Mario Lemieux	369
Ted Lindsay	369
Bernie Geoffrion	369
Ilya Kovalchuk	361

Let's look at how these players rank over their best eight consecutive seasons. In Matthews' case, he only has eight years. This is (arguably) a more meaningful comparison, since we don't get to pick and choose a player's best years. (This doesn't really affect players like Gretzky or Bossy, who had a clear peak - but it hurts someone like Lemieux, who was frequently injured). Under this method, Matthews ranks 10th all-time.

Most adjusted goals, first eight seasons (1927-2024)

Wayne Gretzky	455
Alex Ovechkin	415
Mike Bossy	411
Maurice Richard	401
Gordie Howe	396
Bobby Hull	394
Auston Matthews	388
Charlie Conacher	387
Bill Cook	386
Steven Stamkos	378
Nels Stewart	368
Howie Morenz	356
Ilya Kovalchuk	356
Mario Lemieux	356
Phil Esposito	354
Teemu Selanne	345
Gordie Fashoway	344
Roy Conacher	344
Luc Robitaille	341
Guy Lafleur	335

Arguably this is the most meaningful way to evaluate Matthews right now. In terms of most goals scored through a player's first eight years, he ranks 8th all-time.

It's tough to evaluate a player who's in the middle of his prime. Matthews clearly has the possibility of becoming one of the top ten goal-scorers of all time. He's had an excellent start (and he'd rank even higher on each of these tables, if not for the approximately 40 games that he's missed). The two things that he needs to do, in order to solidify a spot in the top ten are improve his playoff numbers (which have been disappointing for a player of his calibre) and/or have good longevity.

For example, Mike Bossy is somewhere in the top ten all-time (amongst goal-scorers). Matthews is only two years away from matching Bossy's career length, but the gap in their playoff performances is enormous. Matthews will need to either make a serious dent in that, or compile his way past Bossy with many more years as a top goal-scorer.

Another comparable player might be Teemu Selanne. I think we can say that Matthews is the better goal-scorer, but it's close. Selanne also has a fairly disappointing playoff resume. He's generally outside of the top ten, and he scored close to 700 goals. If Matthews can't step up in the playoffs, he'll need some serious longevity to crack the top ten (because Selanne isn't there right now, with close to double Matthews' career total).

I think the biggest issue with Selanne is that he had great longevity as a good goal scorer but his peak as a great goal scorer wasn’t very long when you consider injuries and down years (in part from injuries). 3 years leading the league and another 2 top 3 but then only one other 10th place finish. Matthews has already matched Selanne’s top 3 finishes exactly (1,1,1,2,3) and already has one more year in the top 10 in points per game than Selanne did. I don’t think he needs great longevity necessarily to push for the top 10 so much as to not fall off for another 4-5 years. To me, longevity as a great goal scorer is the biggest factor in goal scorer evaluations and that’s where Selanne loses ground despite the career numbers.

 

[Randyne]

Most adjusted goals, best eight seasons (1927-2024)

Why is this so much different from Hockey-Reference site?
Ovi's best 8 = 481
Bobby's best 8 = 416
HR Ovi has +65 goals over Bobby and your calculation -79 goals behind Bobby. It's ok to have 10-20 goals difference between calculations, but 144 goals difference in 8 seasons, something is very wrong.
Best 10 seasons adjusted HR:

 

[jigglysquishy]

Why is this so much different from Hockey-Reference site?

Because HockeyReference is awful and the math is fundamentally wrong for pre 1980 hockey.

 

[Legion34]

Of course he wasn't. Maybe couple players were better in NHL history.

???? Ovy was more dynamic and fun to watch. His hits were unreal.

But Matthews has more goals.same or more rockets, plays C leads the league in blocked shots. Near the top in takeaways and plays selke level D despite being the hands down best goal scorer in the game.

He’s the most unique player in the league. Not the best but his skill set is unmatched for all round game.

And I would trade him for McDavid in a second

 

[Randyne]

Because HockeyReference is awful and the math is fundamentally wrong for pre 1980 hockey.

Everyone can call awful everything. At least try to explain.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

???? Ovy was more dynamic and fun to watch. His hits were unreal.

But Matthews has more goals.same or more rockets, plays C leads the league in blocked shots. Near the top in takeaways and plays selke level D despite being the hands down best goal scorer in the game.

He’s the most unique player in the league. Not the best but his skill set is unmatched for all round game.

And I would trade him for McDavid in a second

He's also good on the draw. Not great, but still good.


Matthews is overrated by those super annoying fans that every fan base has, just Toronto has more than some teams have fans in general.

He's underrated by the people who just see the above Toronto fans and try and cut him down.


Right now, if he got hurt 1st game of the season and had to retire, he'd be in the same boat ad Bossy and and Bure as what could have been without injuries.

He's not considered the best goal scorer, as he could play another 10 years and average 30 goals a year. Still good, but would leave him well short of 1st, or how it's looking, 2nd.

If he keeps up the pace he's been scoring at there's no option but to declare him the best goal scorer.


Right now he's definitely trending to be top 3/5 goal scorers of all time.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Everyone can call awful everything. At least try to explain.

It's a group of baseball fans that tried to quickly make a hockey website so it's littered with baseball origin errors.

Their roster size adjustments are structurally broken. They adjust to having star players of the 50s play only 15 minutes in the adjusted formula. If you look at adjusted scoring in the 50s and 60s star players are all structurally underestimated by 10-25%. You end up with Art Ross winners adjusting below 10th in scoring finishers from today. The creators don't care about hockey history and are only looking for Gretzky and more modern stats to "look" right.

No roster size adjustment size is needed for baseball so they never bothered to think it through.

I've bought it up to them several times and they just don't care. I hate how ubiquitous the stats are here because it's a lazy formula that's repeated everywhere.

 

[Randyne]

???? Ovy was more dynamic and fun to watch. His hits were unreal.

But Matthews has more goals.same or more rockets, plays C leads the league in blocked shots. Near the top in takeaways and plays selke level D despite being the hands down best goal scorer in the game.

He’s the most unique player in the league. Not the best but his skill set is unmatched for all round game.

And I would trade him for McDavid in a second

???
Ovechkin lead the league by 38 P and 62 G despite being a winger, Matthews is 285 P behind a leader and barely outscore his own teammate.
They are not comparable at all.