Where do you rank Seth Jones?

[majormajor]

I don't know, he looks great (or exciting) to me, but the stats—while not perfect—just straight up do not add up to a top-5 defenseman. Closer to Ekblad probably.

The Athletic just posted a great article on this debate. While stats are the basis of it, they include about 20-30 clips from the game. So it's the stats test and the eye test, with Jones not really acing either.

Video Room: He played over an hour but was Seth Jones actually good in Game 1?

Cross-posting this comment from a game thread:

"I think what's going on here is that your idea (and the advanced stats community's idea) of "controlling the play" is different than John Tortorella's "controlling the play". Seth Jones is doing his job to a t. He's guarding the house, you can have the zone if you want and you can have your shot attempts from outside. But you won't score. He's been on for just one goal against in 193 minutes 5v5, largely against Matthews and Kucherov."

Without going through all of the video clips above it seems that Wheeler and Dom L are evaluating Seth Jones at a job that he isn't even trying to do.

 

[majormajor]

Well except for the fact that he is , you dont get to pick and choose what advanced stats to believe, its either all or nothing

Not true at all.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Good, yes. I don't know if that screams top 10 defenseman though.

Don't take this the wrong way but I live I've lived in Vancouver my whole life and have come to learn a few things about Canuck fans.

1) They don't actually watch games from other teams
2) They rely HEAVILY on analytics
3) They love stats

Keeping all these in mind, your comment fits that description perfectly. Because Seth Jones does not have great advanced stats, nor does he put up massive numbers. But if you ever watch a Columbus game you'll know the impact he has on every single game. In the sort of style that Torts likes to play, his stats get diminished but he's the most important player on the team. Just keep that in mind before you make comments like "he's not top 10". Because I would bet my house that your top 10 would consist of stat stuffers and washed up vets.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Cross-posting this comment from a game thread:

"I think what's going on here is that your idea (and the advanced stats community's idea) of "controlling the play" is different than John Tortorella's "controlling the play". Seth Jones is doing his job to a t. He's guarding the house, you can have the zone if you want and you can have your shot attempts from outside. But you won't score. He's been on for just one goal against in 193 minutes 5v5, largely against Matthews and Kucherov."

Without going through all of the video clips above it seems that Wheeler and Dom L are evaluating Seth Jones at a job that he isn't even trying to do.

Columbus allows more shots from the house with Jones on the ice though.

 

[majormajor]

Columbus allows more shots from the house with Jones on the ice though.

I'll bring in this convo here because its basically the same discussion:

Expected goals don't to do anything with outside shots.

6,22 expected goals against in 5v5 prior to today games. Only 1 GA (yeah). Only and one Korpisalo deserves so much credit. Not Jones.

Playing it safe on the rush and not challenging entries is a teamwide approach. That's exactly what I'm talking about.

And expected goals do misjudge the danger of shots versus the Blue Jackets. A shot from the high circle with almost nothing to look at around the shot blocker isn't that dangerous, a guy from mid slot with two defenders sticks on him who can only whack the puck into the goalies chest, that's not dangerous. Follow the xGs as you watch the game and you'll see what I mean. The biggest thing is that defensive sticks are always getting in the way, so chances against end up weak even when they're from the mid slot.

 

[Regal]

Don't take this the wrong way but I live I've lived in Vancouver my whole life and have come to learn a few things about Canuck fans.

1) They don't actually watch games from other teams
2) They rely HEAVILY on analytics
3) They love stats

Keeping all these in mind, your comment fits that description perfectly. Because Seth Jones does not have great advanced stats, nor does he put up massive numbers. But if you ever watch a Columbus game you'll know the impact he has on every single game. In the sort of style that Torts likes to play, his stats get diminished but he's the most important player on the team. Just keep that in mind before you make comments like "he's not top 10". Because I would bet my house that your top 10 would consist of stat stuffers and washed up vets.

Goals aren't analytics, and if you followed the conversation the issue was trying to rectify the disparity between the eye test and underlying stats. Eye test is also notoriously flawed and several people in here have posted articles that use the eye test as well as analytics to describe how Jones looks extremely physically impressive at times but it doesn't always lead to anything for his team. I've never actually given an answer in this thread, I've tried to have discussion about his game and how the analytics come into play, and I think a number of posters have made some good points, including major_major who watches Jones more regularly. It's funny to see people be critical of those who want to use more than their eyes to try to analyze a player as being the ones who aren't open to things, then turn around and dismiss any stat based approach that doesn't jive with their view.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I'll bring in this convo here because its basically the same discussion:



Playing it safe on the rush and not challenging entries is a teamwide approach. That's exactly what I'm talking about.

And expected goals do misjudge the danger of shots versus the Blue Jackets. A shot from the high circle with almost nothing to look at around the shot blocker isn't that dangerous, a guy from mid slot with two defenders sticks on him who can only whack the puck into the goalies chest, that's not dangerous. Follow the xGs as you watch the game and you'll see what I mean. The biggest thing is that defensive sticks are always getting in the way, so chances against end up weak even when they're from the mid slot.

Yeah, I don't have an issue with the rush so much depending on what it leads to but the issue is that Jones allows guys to get in tight behind him once they beat him on an entry and allows them to set up the cycle down low too frequently for my liking. It'd be one thing if he allowed entries but held guys to the outside of the faceoff circle but that isn't what I see.

I've kind of already addressed the team approach with the heat maps but I'll go back into it. Columbus with and without Jones both show a similar pattern of allowing a lot of shots from the top of the right (from the goalie's perspective) faceoff circle and just above it, but they allow very little in front of the net. However, with Jones on the ice, they allow a little bit more from the front of the net, and a little bit more from the top of that right faceoff circle as well. That's what I'm talking about when I say they allow more from the house with him. They still allow far fewer from the house with Jones on the ice and I realize it's holding him to a high standard to compare him to guys like Gavrikov-Savard playing against weaker competition, but that's the standard that you have to hold a player to if you want to say they're the best defenseman in the league or anywhere close to it and I don't really think Jones passes.

Regarding expected goals, Blue Jackets already allowed the fewest expected goals this season according to Natural Stat Trick. Do you think that expected goals are underrating their defensive play by saying that they are only slightly stronger defensively than every other team in the NHL? Are they actually far better defensively than any other team in the NHL, in your opinion? Because that's what you're suggesting if you think expected goals overestimate the danger of shots they allow. And even if you think that the "true xG" allowed over that sample was 3.11 - half of the 6.22 that was stated - it would still follow that Korpisalo deserves most of the credit there since he is allowing less than one third of the goals that you'd expect. The majority of credit for Toronto's 1.5% shooting percentage at 5-on-5 should absolutely go to Korpisalo and some of it should come in the form of blame to Toronto's skaters as well.

 

[Vex]

Is Jones the new Weber?

In that he looks impressive and physical but isn't all that amazing.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Is Jones the new Weber?

In that he looks impressive and physical but isn't all that amazing.

to be fair to weber he was that guy for at least a bit

 

[Nabrules]

Analytics fools gonna have a field day. They’re just as annoying as the “only eye test” people.

 

[Regal]

Is Jones the new Weber?

In that he looks impressive and physical but isn't all that amazing.

The funny thing with Weber is that, after that poor series against San Jose, a lot of people started focusing on his corsi, and saying he was always overrated and not actually elite, and while he probably was always overrated defensively, things like expected goals and regression analytics do suggest that he was a great defenseman in his prime (especially his runner up Norris in '12), and still a very good one now. So it's possible in the future we'll see better numbers that paint Jones in a different light than the one the nunbers suggest now.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

The funny thing with Weber is that, after that poor series against San Jose, a lot of people started focusing on his corsi, and saying he was always overrated and not actually elite, and while he probably was always overrated defensively, things like expected goals and regression analytics do suggest that he was a great defenseman in his prime (especially his runner up Norris in '12), and still a very good one now. So it's possible in the future we'll see better numbers that paint Jones in a different light than the one the nunbers suggest now.

more likely to go the other way on jones tho, seeing as his corsi is much better than his xg

 

[ClevelandUke]

Not true at all.

Yeah, its 100% spot on bud. Told you before, you have to start making better post.

 

[ClevelandUke]

This isn't how things work. You can't just say "one idiot called Cody Ceci an analytics darling, so all analytics are incredibly flawed." I could make a Twitter account and say "I watched every Leafs game this season, and I think Cody Ceci is the best player in the league." By your logic, that would mean that the eye test is incredibly flawed, because one idiot improperly used the eye test to lead to an inaccurate conclusion.

Cody Ceci was literally below replacement level this season by GAR and xGAR (two of the three models that were referenced in that Tweet that called him an analytics darling). The guys who make those models have both been extremely critical of Ceci throughout his career and the analytics community absolutely slammed Dubas when he traded for and signed Ceci. 3-year RAPM is the analytic that I use the most, and here is Ceci's 3-year RAPM chart:

Spoiler

View attachment 360902

Contrary to what you've suggested, you absolutely can pick and choose what analytics you do and don't value (I'm sure you place plenty of value on points) and the analytics community is not a monolith that all thinks the same. There are very many analytics out there, each with their own nuances, which means that very few players around the league would qualify as either an "analytics darling" or an "analytics villain." Cody Ceci is one of the very few players who I would say comfortably qualifies as an "analytics villain."



This is a better and more brief way of saying exactly what I just said.

That 100% is how things work, Advanced stats are for people who cant follow basic hockey and have to sit infront of a screen all day and let them tell you how well or bad they played and its all made up as they go along.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Yeah, its 100% spot on bud. Told you before, you have to start making better post.

one guy said "analytics darling" using only the defensive half of one stat and now any analytics fan who disagrees or looks at the damn fact that the dude is replacement level is somehow being inconsistent? lol

 

[ClevelandUke]

one guy said "analytics darling" using only the defensive half of one stat and now any analytics fan who disagrees or looks at the damn fact that the dude is replacement level is somehow being inconsistent? lol

Yes.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Yes.

even by the stat that guy was using, which iirc was xGA RAPM, the offensive portion of that SAME STAT has ceci as awful, and the synthesization of both puts him clearly below average

 

[Vex]

I honestly don't know how @JoeThorntonsRooster or @Machinehead haven't become shitposters at this point. They put in so much effort into their posts, detailing why certain stats shed light on a player, what certain stats mean, and people reply to them with absolute nonsense like "lol just watch the game stats suck" and act like they won the argument.

 

[ClevelandUke]

even by the stat that guy was using, which iirc was xGA RAPM, the offensive portion of that SAME STAT has ceci as awful, and the synthesization of both puts him clearly below average

i literally dont understand how you could have missed the point so miserably, i truly dont.

 

[CanadienShark]

He could be as high as #2, but I'll say top 5, because it's not really clear cut. Hedman is #1.

 

[ClevelandUke]

I honestly don't know how @JoeThorntonsRooster or @Machinehead haven't become shitposters at this point. They put in so much effort into their posts, detailing why certain stats shed light on a player, what certain stats mean, and people reply to them with absolute nonsense like "lol just watch the game stats suck" and act like they won the argument.

Because they do the same thing its always "lol yeah but this stat says this player is great because this stat and this stat say so" i mean if the players voted on their own top 20 poll of rankings and they said a player with bad advanced numebrs is top 5, i can guarentee they would talk about how the players voting is wrong because of advanced stats, which is a joke of their own.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I honestly don't know how @JoeThorntonsRooster or @Machinehead haven't become shitposters at this point. They put in so much effort into their posts, detailing why certain stats shed light on a player, what certain stats mean, and people reply to them with absolute nonsense like "lol just watch the game stats suck" and act like they won the argument.

that used to be me but i became kind of a shitposter for the exact reasons you stated lol

 

[Machinehead]

I honestly don't know how @JoeThorntonsRooster or @Machinehead haven't become shitposters at this point. They put in so much effort into their posts, detailing why certain stats shed light on a player, what certain stats mean, and people reply to them with absolute nonsense like "lol just watch the game stats suck" and act like they won the argument.

Who said I haven't?

 

[Machinehead]

And by analytics nerd standards my vote was extremely generous to Jones and I gave his reputation a huge benefit of the doubt.

So I don't even wanna hear it.

 

[Vex]

Who said I haven't?

I'll wait for the next Torey Krug thread.